dudacek

“What has been fundamental is the creation of a safe environment where there’s a lot of adversity.” ”While there is no trading, no cutting and no waiving players, there are expectations and even elite prospects come up against a host of new challenges. The first year you come in and (you are playing in the NHL as a 20-year-old). It’s important to have that competitiveness and not to use it as an excuse.” ”It’s about what they do once they arrive, whether they seize the opportunity that’s put in front of them, that determines what happens.” Sound familiar? It’s not Donnie Granato or Seth Appert talking about the Sabres or their prospects. These are the guiding principles of the US National Development program - perhaps the best production factory for top NHL hockey players of the past decade. I was reading a profile on the USNDP and it turned into a light bulb moment: Granato and Appert have taken the principles of the program they used to run with 16 and 17 year olds in the USHL and applied them to NHLers on ELC contracts. Basically, the USNDP takes a collection of youthful, elite talents gives them a sense of team and trust and belonging and then pushes them out against older, better competition with no place to hide. It forces them to figure out how to compete and ultimately win by taking responsibility for their own development: facing and eventually overcoming challenges. The USNDP philosophy says you get that by playing late when you’re up or down a goal, and by lining up at the dot against the best players the other team has to offer. You don’t get it watching from the press box or by sitting at the end of the bench after making a bad pass. The Logan Cooleys and the Cole Caufields start with the USNDTP as overmatched kids and they end up as 1st-round draft picks. The Sabres are trying to create a similar crucible to turn 1st-round picks like Rasmus Dahlin and Tage Thompson into NHL stars. The hope is the likes of Samuelsson, Krebs, and Quinn will also thrive under the same model. They’ve already met the challenge of being Amerks. Time to learn from the next challenge. And that is why we will see them this year instead of Klingberg or Kadri. Even if it means some delayed gratification. As far as the Kevyn Adams Sabres go, this is what draft and develop looks like.

This is what my eye test suggests as well, as much as I respect Taro’s eye test and acknowledge the underlying numbers support his point of view.

Contract slides in the AHL. Kulich weighed in at 178 at the combine. Peterka was listed at 192 last year, Quinn at 185.

It will be interesting to see where the Sabres go with Kulich this year given his apparently advanced development status. Continue to play with men in the Czech league where he can challenge himself to elevate to a top 6 role and develop his body and his confidence in a comfortable social environment while postponing his cultural and small-ice adjustment. Dominate his peers and pile up big numbers while getting used to North American culture and rinks in the Q. Risk being over his head in the AHL while getting hands-on teaching from the Sabres staff and cultural support from the Czech mafia of Rousek and Pekar. From what I’ve seen of Kulich’s personality and talent, I’m inclined to want him to be in Rochester. He seems to be mentally tough and I think the positive presence of Pekar and Rousek should not be overlooked. He’s just gotta show he’s ready to play a regular shift at that level.

Just to be clear, the list takes a players’ performance under a specific analytics model, projected based on recent trends over the lifetime of the contract. It’s not about how many points a player got last year versus how much he got paid. It’s about the term and the trend. It’s about how poorly a player is trending under Dom Luscycyn’s model versus how much he is going to get paid.

O’Reilly

Wing Skinner G33 P63 -14 * Bratt G26 P73 0 Okposo G21 P46 -15 * Palat G18 P49 +15 Tuch G12 P38 -3 * Sharangovich G24 P46 -14 Olofsson G20 P49 -16 * Tatar G15 P30 -22 Hinostroza G13 P25 -11 * Johnsson G13 P35 +4 Asplund G8 P27 -5 * Haula G18 P44 +19 Krebs G7 P22 -20 * Boqvist G10 P23 -9 Quinn G1 P2 -7 * Holtz G0 P2 -5 Peterka G0 P0 0 * Wood G0 P0 -2 Bjork G5 P8 -14 * Bastian G11 P16 -11

Centre Thompson G38 P68 -17 * Hughes G26 P56 -16 Mittelstadt G6 P19 -14 * Hischier G21 P60 -1 Cozens G13 P38 -19 * Mercer G17 P42 -25 Girgensons G10 P18, -7 * McLeod G6 P20 -16

Defence Dahlin 53P, -22 * Hamilton 30P, -19 Power 3P, +3 * Severson 46P, -14 Samuelsson 10P, -10 * Marino 25P, +1 Jokiharju 19P, -8 * Graves 28P, -9 Lyubushkin 15P, -2 * Seigenthaler 14P, -5 Bryson 10P, -9 * Smith 8P, +6

Goal: Comrie 10/5/1 2.58 .920 * Vanacek 20/12/6 2.67 .908 Anderson 17/12/2 3.12 .897 * Blackwood 9/10/4 3.39 .892 Lukkonnen 2/5/2 2.74 .917 * Daws 10/11/1 3.11 .893

Sabres don’t deserve *****, but @Taro T is right, nothing New Jersey has, or has done stands out as superior to the Sabres.

I get that he’s neither tough, nor a goal scorer, but I don’t think it’s right that Asplund tends to get lumped in with last year’s replaceable parts. Whatever line he’s on tends to get better. He gets love from the analytics guys, but I don’t think enough attention is paid to Asplund’s work ethic and his drive for self-improvement. He’s going to get better. And the kid put up 27 points in what was essentially his rookie season.

I think Shayne Wright went 4th because the 3 teams picking ahead of him all saw players available that they ranked higher. I think 3 factors weighed against Wright: 1. Growth. he was an early physical developer who dominated in part because of that when he was younger but whose dominance fell off as he aged and other kids caught up. He was not significantly better at 17 than he was at 15 and in the scouting world that matters. 2. Skill. The hype machine had most of us expecting franchise 1C skill but I didn’t see it. He didn’t have Lafontaine’s burst, Hawerchuk’s craftiness, Forsberg’s indomitable presence. He’s very good, smart and strong. But when I look at his physical gifts I see more O’Reilly than Eichel. 3. Character. You read a quote from Wright, he says the right things. But the more you watch him interact with people, the more you get the sense he is reading from a script. Im not saying he’s Evander Kane-style trouble, but I get the sense he is more calculated Hockey Canada media creation covering stereotypical entitled hockey star douchiness than the mainstream narrative let on, and it made organizations hesitant to invest.

From Scott Wheeler’s latest ranking of the top prospects outside the NHL (Owen Power topped the list): 9. Matt Savoie, C/RW, 18 (Buffalo Sabres — No. 9, 2022) Savoie’s game has the potential to thrill as much as any player’s on this list. Inside the offensive zone, he’s strong. He’s got extremely quick side-to-side hands that help him beat defenders one-on-one off of cuts. He’s got an NHL shot (which he can place with pinpoint accuracy from a bad angle and rip by a goalie clean from a distance, but he also loves to change up and slide five-hole). He does an excellent job creating plays to the slot out of traffic. He’s a burning skater with explosiveness and quick three-step acceleration that allows him to win races, separate in transition, and put defenders onto their heels, or dash through holes in coverage to the net (or draw a penalty). He’s a soft small-area passer who blends deception into his movements. And then on top of those things, he’s got a bit of a chip on his shoulder. He’s always engaged, he keeps his feet moving, he plays with a ton of energy, and he finishes all of his checks and knocks his fair share of players over despite being on the smaller side. He’s also sturdier on his feet than his listed height might suggest, which helps him play between checks. I see a dynamic, high-tempo, top-six, goal-creating package. He’s an exciting talent, with clear PP1 upside due to his shooting/skill package and clear five-on-five upside because of his skating and motor. Even in games where the points don’t fall, he’s almost always dangerous and threatening on the ice — and he’s seldom going to leave you wanting more. Because of the way he plays, I fully expect him to stick at his natural centre position in the NHL, too. His speed might even make him a useful penalty killer to give him all-situations value as well

The flaw in this argument is that it's built on the mistaken premise that we've been buying for all 11 of of those years, or that the reasons to buy haven't changed.

This is one of those deals we've been hoping the Sabres would able to make happen: https://www.nhl.com/bluejackets/news/cbj-acquire-draft-picks-from-seattle-in-exchange-for-oliver-bjorkstrand/c-335069258 27 years old, 28 goals, reasonable contract...

Not disputing your point, but I think the only way Matt Savoie plays a shift in the minors is if the Sabres take a huge leap next year. I expect he should be NHL ready next year and will be in two. He's a Cozens-level prospect. Seth Appert Mike Peca and Mike Weber have done a better job with our prospects than any coaching group in 15 years. So, no.

Nice piece by Lance on our new goalie https://buffalonews.com/sports/sabres/how-eric-comrie-broke-through-ceiling-earned-opportunity-with-sabres/article_43008f8a-086f-11ed-8d48-a7ea4b5d191a.html Not sure how good they're going to be, but we sure seem to pick up players who are easy to root for.

Jeff Skinner — a winger who is not 6'7" 230 — got $9 million for 8 years coming off seasons of 40 and 24 goals, and he has never hit 68 points. Next summer Tage will have arb rights and be one year away from UFA status. What happens if he scores, say 27?

People aren't paying attention if they are pitching $6 million extensions for Tage. The AAV starts with at least a $7 this summer and goes over $8 next year with even 30 goals.

I'm seeing a local-to-my-area kid just got added to the Amerks-Cyclines pipeline https://www.abbynews.com/sports/abbotsfords-kohen-olischefski-signs-with-rochester-americans/

Because very few of the players who play there will ever see the ice in Buffalo, let alone become important pieces there.

Come on man, you're so busy parsing things into bite-sized chunks, you are completely talking past my original point: which was simply the bolded. A lot of the players who do become stud scorers were not projected to be that when they were 18 or 20. I listed nearly 20 of them. It's OK to say you agree with me. 😁

i think Peterka and Quinn were unicorns and there is no way the likes of Kisakov and Rosen will make up for their loss, and, as you say, there's been no one signed to replace Jankowski and R2. The upgrades to the blueline should make up for it somewhat, but there is a big hole down the middle.

Sorry Amerks fans, not that they are mutually exclusive, but winning championships is trumped by developing Sabres prospects every time. As far as I'm concerned, last year is likely to represent one of the most successful seasons in Rochester Americans history.