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carpandean

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Posts posted by carpandean

  1. Tank Nation chart added. Interesting to note that we were actually ahead of the Oilers 21 games into the season.

     

    Looking at the seasons since the '04-'05 lockout, 29th and 30th have looked like:

     

    2011-12: 74, 65

    2010-11: 68, 62

    2009-10: 74, 62

    2008-09: 66, 61

    2007-08: 71, 71

    2006-07: 67, 56

    2005-06: 58, 57

     

    Only once (2007-08) has the 30th team finished above 65 points and only once (2005-06) has the 29th team finished below 66. So, it seemed like 65 points would be a natural line to track against. Only the Sabres and Oilers are below it, and the Oilers are getting close to it.

  2. It's temporary, but at 53, we are empirically not the worst team in the league!!! Hooray!!!

     

    Yes, but Edmonton has locked in their next three games at 2 points each, so we cannot say which team is having a worse season right now. In fact, we can't even say who is better through 54GP (a Sabres regulation loss puts Edmonton ahead due to the tiebreaker.) But, you are correct, through 53GP, the Sabres were better (if you ignore 13 ROW for Edmonton vs. 9 ROW for the Sabres.)

  3. I think the win last night moves the sabres to 29th place through 53 games. We're (temporarily) out of the basement.

     

    True, Edmonton had 36 points through 53GP. However, they did rattle off three wins from there. So, the Sabres would need 4 points in the next 3 games to stay with them through 56GP. They cannot be ordered at this time (though, I would put 4 points just slightly ahead of 3 games-in-hand, in expectation, for whatever that's worth.)

     

    They are at least 7 behind Calgary and 6 behind the Islanders (i.e., that's how far behind they would be if they won their games-in-hand.

  4. Hodgson has 29 points in 42 games. (.69 PPG)

     

    Kassian has 15 points in 48 games. (.32 PPG)

     

    Not sure where the debate is...

     

    Last 10 games (in case improvement is argued):

     

    Hodgson has 6 goals, 4 assists (4 goals, 2 assists 5-on-5)

     

    Kassian has 3 goals, 3 assists (2 goals, 3 assists 5-on-5)

     

     

    Adjusting for TOI (per minute):

     

    Hodgson generated 0.0363 GPM, 0.0242 APM

     

    Kassian generated 0.0224 GPM, 0.0224 APM

  5. Not that it matters but McBain has 9pts. Also we didn't trade Sekera for McBain, we traded Sekera for Compher and got McBain as part of the deal. The key to that deal was the 2nd round pick and specifically Compher. Compher has 16pts in 19gp at U.Mich

     

    Yeah, McBain was a throw-in project. Some unrealized potential that, were it to be realized, would be nice, but unexpected.

     

     

    The deal only makes sense if Compher becomes a better NHL player than Sekera is now. That is possible but not likely.

     

    That was quietly one of Darcy's worst moves.

     

    Actually, it was trading from a position of perceived strength for a position that lacked depth. It should be judged on the net effect of moving Sekera out of the defensive depth chart and Compher into the offensive one. If the trade made the team better (in the long run), then it doesn't matter so much if he "won" it or not. In fact, that was one of the biggest complaints about Darcy; he never seemed to make deals that would make the team better, even if he technically didn't "win" them.

     

    Edit: Tankalicious beat me to it.

  6. And the non-roughing the kicker call - the Seattle guy hunkered down and aimed his shoulder right at the guy's ankle. The officials somehow missed that too. Did the NFL hire WWF officials to work these games? A number of calls such as that, seemingly all in one team's favor, makes me question the legitimacy of the NFL's officiating.

     

    Actually, I thought that after he missed the block, he tried to keep from hitting the kicker (pulling back as much as someone diving through the air can) and just barely got to him. Unfortunately, it still caused the kicker to roll over his ankle. However, from the sound of it, the rule says that if the player hits the plant leg (which he clearly did), then it is a 15-yard roughing penalty.

  7. I think it's fair to say that IQ scores aren't too relevant to football.

     

    Anyone else see that Ryan Fitzpatrick had the third-highest Wonderlic score ever, 48/50, in a record 9 minutes? (They are given 12 minutes, which is supposed to be tough to finish in.)

  8. Towes with a 10 minute misconduct for throwing half of his stick into the stands after it broke. He was actually starting to skate away from the boards and toss it back toward where the blue line meets the boards. Only he tossed it a little to high and a little to hard; right over the boards. Automatic 10. Don't see that much.

  9. Not a good time anyway....been outside clearing snow for the past 36 hours....my Corsi number is down.....

     

     

     

    The "new coach effect" did include him getting demoted to the 3rd line before he got hurt.

     

    That's the reason I really bumped the thread. Has anyone really missed Hodgson? It seems the team has been morphing into it's new identity without him, and even though you are replacing your supposed best offensive player with the 30th guy on the depth chart, does anyone really care? It seems Moulson got his mojo going when teamed with Ennis and Girgs.

     

    Kassian has a lot to prove to make it look like a mistake, that's for sure...but he's got as many goals as Hodgson now, is on the upswing with his ice time and responsibility, and potted most of those goals not playing with anyone named Sedin or Vanek. At least in the past month, the trajectories of the 2 players have crossed....hence the revisit.

     

    I remember Nolan saying that he was splitting up the first line (with Coho and Moulson) because he wanted to try spreading out the offensive talent, since it was too easy for teams to focus in on that line. I don't remember him specifically being on a "third line" (how would you know?), but since he missed two games, came back and then left two games later, injuries could have been a factor.

     

    Believe it or not, their offense (GPG) is down 16% with Hodgson out (disclaimer: I have not tested it for significance) and I do believe that they would have been better with him, even if it were on a different line than Moulson.

  10. Anyone run the Sabres record with and without Hodgson in the lineup this year?

     

    One could (9-22-2 with vs. 3-4-2 without; p-value for difference of wins proportions: 0.72), but even if it had been significant, it would be impossible to separate it from any "new coach effect" since he's missed 9 of the last 11 games (and none before that.)

  11. Hodgson will always get his points. What has been highlighted this season is his laziness.

     

    Read all of the threads (on Canucks' or league-wide message boards) about Kassian before the New Years, going back for the last year and half, and they say the same thing about him ... only without the points (and, no, he didn't bring much of a physical game either.) He's put together a few good games.

     

    Personally, I thought it was "a hockey trade" in which both teams got something they wanted. I also felt that both sides were trading and acquiring potential, rather than proven talent.

     

    Regardless, they're not going to re-hire Darcy just so that they can fire him over it, so it's nothing more than a novelty question now.

  12. I was wondering if any one was going to say something. Kassian had his best game of the season last night. 18 minutes, 1 goal, 1 assist, 6 hits and the #1 star against one of the best teams in hockey.

     

    Because of one good game?

     

    Past two seasons:

    Kassian 78GP 15G 7A 22P

    Hodgson 81GP 23G 30A 53P

     

    They made the trade to get more of an offensive talent. They got that (especially when you consider the relative level offensive talent around each player.) Neither one has reached their high-end potential; both are still developing.

  13. Thank you for your perspective lol..Macarthur and Paille others I've missed but there . It definitely seems that way though

     

    No problem. For the record, Paille's best years, production-wise, were here, too. He's just being used in a different role there (a very good 4th-line, energy guy instead of an OK second-line winger.) MacArthur has progressed, but he was also young when he left. Mostly, he just got more consistant, which often happens with maturity. However, I do understand the feeling. Mostly, we just get down on our own players, so when they go elsewhere and produce, even if it's not at a higher rate, it feels like they're suddenly better. It also doesn't help that players don't seem to come here and get better.

  14. WOW. is it just me, or does EVERY SINGLE PLAYER WE TRADE/get rid of turn into an super-star? Sekera, Gerbe, Pominville, Roy, Tropp OMFG!!!!!!!! Grigorenko will be traded and turn into a 50 goal scorer. I'd put money on it. Does everything the Sabres touch turn into s**t?

     

    Roy's most productive years were in Buffalo. In fact, with the exception of his last year (2011-12), his GPG and PPG were better every season in Buffalo from 2006-07 on than they have been in either Dallas or St. Louis. He was injured here at the end and definitely wasn't meshing well with Lindy. He's been rejuvinated since being traded, but still isn't his old self (0.711 PPG this year vs. 0.84-1.43 PPG over the aforementioned stretch in Buffalo.)

     

    Likewise, Gerbe's most productive season (2010-11) was in Buffalo. He's on pace to get close to that again, but not to beat it (in GPG or PPG.)

     

    Pominville was and remains good. A very complete player, who was everything except a good captain. He's on a good line and showing what he can do. He did that here, too. His GPG are the highest since his 2006-07 year in Buffalo, which was obviously helped by the team and the league, so that's definitely improved. However, his PPG is lower this year than any year in Buffalo after 2005-06.

     

    Tropp is too small of sample to say much, but injury concerns (concussions) probably played a part in why he was waived.

     

    Sekera is the only one on your list (depending on how you value Pominville's goals vs. his total points) who has clearly improved.

  15. It's a hockey discussion forum no? The comparison/contrast of drafted players is an ongoing thing as time moves forward.

     

    I don't read every post of every thread here and I can think of several similar "angry face at Nichushkin's success" posts in the past few days, much less before that. Don't know if they were all yours or not, but it was getting annoying.

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