Jack Quinn, this year vs last year by the numbers

[mjd1001]

Last year a lot of us were let down by Jack Quinn. Personally, I had a hard time imagining another forward in the entire league that got non-4th line minutes that was worse then he was or hurt his team more.

He "looks" better this year, so I decided to look at some of his numbers from last year, to so far this season:

The 'pure' numbers:

Last season:  74 games, 15 goals, 24 assists, -18, 123 shots, 12.2% shooting (82 game pace:  16.6 goals, 26.6 assists, 43.2 points,  -20 136 shots) 14:52 ice time

This season: 26 games, 6 goals, 8 assists, -6, 50 shots, 12.0% shooting (82 game pace:  18.9 goals, 25.2 assists, 44.1 points-18.9, 158 shots) 16:33 ice time

So his numbers aren't all that different.  SLIGHTLY better in terms of pure production, but that might have to do with his additional minutes.  In terms of production per minute on the ice his total points are slightly DOWN this year vs last.

How about his 'analytics' even strength (presented in % form, where 50 is 'even', above 50 is good, below 50 is bad)

Last season: Corsi 48.4, Fenwick 47.4, actual goals for/against 43.8, expected goals for/against 48.8.  High danger chances 39.4   He was on the ice for a 'goal for' every 22.1 minutes, on the ice for a 'goal against' every 17.2 minutes.

This season: Corsi 47.3, Fenwick 47.3, actual goals for/against 43.6, expected goals for/against 49.1.  High danger chances 53.2  He was on the cie for a 'goal for' every 21.1 minutes, on the ice for a 'goal against' every 16.3 minutes.

Power Play: last year with him on the ice the team scored a goal once every 8.3 minutes.  This year its once every 12.3 minutes.  So the PP was better with him on the ice last year compared to this year.

So this year vs last year, his numbers are REMARKABLY similar.  He looks better this year to me, but he is only SLIGHTLY better (if anything, his defensive numbers are actually somewhat worse than even last year, and his offensive numbers, as mentioned above might simply be due to more ice time/opportunities this year.)

There are TWO ways his analytics are noticably better than last year. I'm not sure it makes him a better player, but it might be why he LOOKS better:

-Skating.  His max skating speed is up from 21.77 mph last year to 22.38 mph this year. And speed bursts over 20mph are up from 0.86 per game last year to 2.31 per game this year.  He 'looks' faster to the naked eye, and that looks good to us fans.

-Shot location. Last year he simply didn't go to the front of the net. Last year he had a Shot on goal from the high danger area right in front of the net ONCE every 7.4 games. This year, its once every 2 games.  So while it may not mean he's a better player, us fans like it when a player goes to the front of the net and gets 'dirty' goals, no need to look any farther than Doan.

So my personal conclusion?  Hes better this year...marginally. I still need more.  He LOOKS better this year, he is skating better this year, he is going to the front of the net in the offensive zone better this year. But his production and analytics are only SLIGHTLY up this year, and his defensive numbers are actually down slightly.  Again, he's better, but he still needs to take more steps forward than he has so far.

(for anyone wondering, I got the numbers from the NHL.com page, the NHL.com 'edge' page, and the Naturalstattrick.com 'on ice' section)

Edited 40 minutes ago by mjd1001

[oddoublee]

This is the jack quinn post we all needed - well done!

Based on speed and net front presence...maybe he has the potential for a points heater that wouldn't have materialized last year. IDK

But what we can surmise is - his play is smarter and more intense - and that at a minimum, can be infectious for his teammates.

I'm pleased so far.......

[Jorcus]

With the return of Norris he is not going to be on PP 1 anymore and for the life of my I have no idea why he was playing on the point. He really can't cover for Dahlin. It reminded me of the Skinner days. If he is on a PP he should be down on the wing. 

[mjd1001]

8 minutes ago, Jorcus said:

With the return of Norris he is not going to be on PP 1 anymore and for the life of my I have no idea why he was playing on the point. He really can't cover for Dahlin. It reminded me of the Skinner days. If he is on a PP he should be down on the wing. 

I can't figure out what role he should have on the PP. He is a player that has the offensive skill, supposedly an accurate shot....but he hasn't really found his 'spot' on any PP unit yet.  Point? Nope, as you said.  Setting him up for one-timers?  He's not really a 'one timer' kind of shooter.  Hes going to the net more, but he certainly is still not (and hever has been) a guy to stand in front of the net to take a beating.  Down low on the wall as a 'pivot'?  Maybe, but he's decent as a puck handler/distrubutor, but not stellar.  I'm not really sure where he would truly excel on the PP.

[Big Guava]

I still think we haven't seen his ceiling yet.

[Taro T]

15 minutes ago, mjd1001 said:

I can't figure out what role he should have on the PP. He is a player that has the offensive skill, supposedly an accurate shot....but he hasn't really found his 'spot' on any PP unit yet.  Point? Nope, as you said.  Setting him up for one-timers?  He's not really a 'one timer' kind of shooter.  Hes going to the net more, but he certainly is still not (and hever has been) a guy to stand in front of the net to take a beating.  Down low on the wall as a 'pivot'?  Maybe, but he's decent as a puck handler/distrubutor, but not stellar.  I'm not really sure where he would truly excel on the PP.

Personally, really like him in the Thompson role on the SECOND unit.  Hate having him on the 1st unit.  And they should be able to run Power (Dahlin), Doan (Zucker), Quinn (Thompson), Byram (Benson/Norris), Tuch (Norris/Benson).  Which is a respectable/good personnel grouping for a PP.  IF they could finally eliminate doing dumb things.  Don't do a drop pass to enter the zone unless it's setting them up to have multiple guys skating with speed when they actually enter the zone.  Don't exclusively bump the puck from point to sniper in the FO circle endlessly.  DO get a lot of player movement to go with puck movement.  DO have more than just 1 guy working towards the net.  Do overman loose pucks (having multiple guys open for a pass does you absolutely no good when the other team wins an easily winnablle board battle and forces you to regroup 180' away from where the puck battle occurred.  Etc. Etc.

As for his play this year; realize breaking his stats from only 24 or so games into even smaller segments leads to all sorts of distortion due to small sample size, BUT he was NOT good in October; he was better in early November but still not "good;" and he actually looks the part since Zucker came back.  Would be interested to know if the analytics validate the eye test, or if they've been pretty consistent across this nearly 1/3 of a season that he's played to date.

And, as for personal bias in this analysis, was one of the few that expected him to have a bounce back season this year but figured that expectation was totally off-base a month into the season and was ready to give up on him.  If not for so many injuries essentially forcing them to keep him in the lineup, expect he might've played his way into a 13th F role; and was still ready to have him come out of the lineup until he started playing with Zucker.  So, pretty sure that by now, whatever he's doing on ice is being viewed through more or less bias-free lenses; but maybe there's still that expectation that he'd bounce back that is making the evaluation seem a bit rosier than it should be.