The power play, playing with numbers...

[mjd1001]

Putting aside the 'eye test' and looking instead at some analytics, I wanted to see who was the best/worst on the PP for the Sabres this year among forwards using some basic analytics:

Basically, I looked at how many goals the team scores every minute these guys are on the ice (actual production) and then how many 'expected goals' they have per minute the guys are on the ice (how many/how good of chances they generate)

 

Among forward, The good:

-Benson: 1 team goal every 4.7 minutes PP time he is on the ice, 1' expected goal' every 5 minutes.

-Zucker: 1 team goal every 6.8 minutes, 1 expected goal every 5.7 minutes

-Doan:  1 team goal every 8.65 minutes PP time. 1 exptected goal every 6.6 minutes

 

Among forwards, the "OK"

-Tage: 1 team goal every 9 minutes PP time he is on the ice. 1 'expected goal' every 7 minutes

 

Among forwards, the bad:

-McLeod:  1 team goal every 28 minutes he is on the ice. 1 'expected goal' 10.6 minutes.

-Tuch: 1 team goal every 19.5 minutes he is on the ice. 1 'expected goal' every 9.6 minutes

-Quinn: 1 team goal every 9.9 minutes he is on the ice. 1 'expected goal' every 8.8 minutes

 

its still 'kinda' early in the season so its not a huge sample size. but clearly the PP functions pretty well with Benson, Zucker, Doan, and Tage are on the ice....and it suffers pretty badly when McLeod, Tuch, and Quinn are out there.

https://www.naturalstattrick.com/playerteams.php?fromseason=20252026&thruseason=20252026&stype=2&sit=pp&score=all&stdoi=oi&rate=n&team=BUF&pos=F&loc=B&toi=20&gpfilt=none&fd=&td=&tgp=410&lines=single&draftteam=ALL

For D-men, there are only 3 with significant minutes.  

The "good"

-Dahlin:  1 goal for every 7.9 minutes. 1 expected goal for every 7 minutes.

The "not so good"

-Power:  1 goal for every 14 minutes. 1 expected goal for every 9.7 minutes

The "Bad"

-Byram: 1 goal for every 20 minutes. 1 expected goal for every 8 minutes

(BTW, if you do the reverse of this and look up how good/bad they are penatly killing, Byram gets some ice time but he is the worst there. Of all the D-men used PK, when Bryam is on the ice they allow both the most goals per minute and the most expected goals per minute. Samuelsson and Timmons are the best. Power and Dahlin in the middle)

 

Edited 1 hour ago by mjd1001

[Taro T]

9 minutes ago, mjd1001 said:

Putting aside the 'eye test' and looking instead at some analytics, I wanted to see who was the best/worst on the PP for the Sabres this year among forwards using some basic analytics:

Basically, I looked at how many goals the team scores every minute these guys are on the ice (actual production) and then how many 'expected goals' they have per minute the guys are on the ice (how many/how good of chances they generate)

 

Among forward, The good:

-Benson: 1 team goal every 4.7 minutes PP time he is on the ice, 1' expected goal' every 5 minutes.

-Zucker: 1 team goal every 6.8 minutes, 1 expected goal every 5.7 minutes

-Doan:  1 team goal every 8.65 minutes PP time. 1 exptected goal every 6.6 minutes

 

Among forwards, the "OK"

-Tage: 1 team goal every 9 minutes PP time he is on the ice. 1 'expected goal' every 7 minutes

 

Among forwards, the bad:

-McLeod:  1 team goal every 28 minutes he is on the ice. 1 'expected goal' 10.6 minutes.

-Tuch: 1 team goal every 19.5 minutes he is on the ice. 1 'expected goal' every 9.6 minutes

-Quinn: 1 team goal every 9.9 minutes he is on the ice. 1 'expected goal' every 8.8 minutes

 

its still 'kinda' early in the season so its not a huge sample size. but clearly the PP functions pretty well with Benson, Zucker, Doan, and Tage are on the ice....and it suffers pretty badly when McLeod, Tuch, and Quinn are out there.

https://www.naturalstattrick.com/playerteams.php?fromseason=20252026&thruseason=20252026&stype=2&sit=pp&score=all&stdoi=oi&rate=n&team=BUF&pos=F&loc=B&toi=20&gpfilt=none&fd=&td=&tgp=410&lines=single&draftteam=ALL

For D-men, there are only 3 with significant minutes.  

The "good"

-Dahlin:  1 goal for every 7.9 minutes. 1 expected goal for every 7 minutes.

The "not so good"

-Power:  1 goal for every 14 minutes. 1 expected goal for every 9.7 minutes

The "Bad"

-Byram: 1 goal for every 20 minutes. 1 expected goal for every 8 minutes

(BTW, if you do the reverse of this and look up how good/bad they are penatly killing, Byram gets some ice time but he is the worst there. Of all the D-men used PK, when Bryam is on the ice they allow both the most goals per minute and the most expected goals per minute. Samuelsson and Timmons are the best. Power and Dahlin in the middle)

 

All of that passes the eye test.  (Not sure about the Byram being bad at the PK, don't really recall him out there much for that, but the rest of it, yes, it passes the eye test.)

And the reason IMHO that the PP is most effective with Benson, Zucker, and Doan all on the ice together is all 3 are willing to go to the net to help create havoc and at least 2 of them can regularly score from down close to the goal.  Zucker has proven it, Doan has a couple from there at least 1 of which was bounced in off him, but it still counts and if he wasn't down there in the dirty area it wouldn't have gone in, and pretty sure Benson has scored from there, if not this year then last year at least.

Whether Appert is too dumb to get other guys go there when they aren't on the ice or the other players are too stubborn to do so, the rest of the team doesn't go there on the PP.  And either way, the PP doesn't work in large part because of it and the predictability it has when they aren't out there.

This PP SHOULD be top 10 at worst and really could be top 5 if it stayed healthy and somebody that knew what they're doing was running it.

Would not have Tuch on the top unit because he should be able to play that down low role but for whatever reason he isn't effective there.  Wouldn't have Quinn on the top unit because he'd be best served to be in Thompson's spot, but Tage is WAY better at it than Quinn is.  Let him be the 2nd unit's Tage.  Would never take Dahlin nor Thompson off the 1st unit.  But would have both of them, and the other 3 guys moving.  Dahlin does a bit.  Thompson pretty much only does it when they're entering the zone, but he's able to do it as well.  Get rid of Appert and let somebody have the guys that are good near the net do their thing with a lot of movement between them.  

And, personally expect Dahlin's #'s both real and E are reduced due to the fact he's ALWAYS out on the PP and it spends an inordinate amount of time NOT entering the zone and then doing dumb things.  His analytics will go up a lot when they stop being coached to do dumb things.  MHO, ymmv.

[mjd1001]

20 minutes ago, Taro T said:

All of that passes the eye test.  (Not sure about the Byram being bad at the PK, don't really recall him out there much for that, but the rest of it, yes, it passes the eye test.)

 

Bryam actually has almsot 23 minutes penalty killing, 4th on the team among D-men.

Not a lot, but the team has allowed 2 goals in his 23 minutes on the ice short handed.  When Timmons and Sameulsson are on the ice, they have allowed a total of 1 goal in 117 total minutes.

https://www.naturalstattrick.com/playerteams.php?fromseason=20252026&thruseason=20252026&stype=2&sit=pk&score=all&stdoi=oi&rate=n&team=BUF&pos=D&loc=B&toi=20&gpfilt=none&fd=&td=&tgp=410&lines=single&draftteam=ALL

Edited 1 hour ago by mjd1001

[EM88]

Alex Tuch has not been good on the power play in a few years.

His production has dropped on the Power Play every year since 2022-23.

He went from 20 PP points in 2022-23, to 11 PP points in 2023-24, to 11 PP points in 2024-25 (in more games so less points per game) and this year through 20 games he has 0 points on the PP.