why is the PK so much better?

[Drag0nDan]

On 11/2/2025 at 9:15 PM, mjd1001 said:

Why is the PK so much better this year? Except for one single aspect, its not.

 

Last year (per 2 minutes PK 4 on 5):

-1.68 shots allowed, 0.24 expected goals allowed, 1.70 scoring chances allowed, 0.71 high danger chances allowed.

This year (per 2 minutes PK):

-1.86 shots allowed, 0.28 expected goals allowed, 2.05 scoring chances allowed, 0.80 high danger chances allowed.

So far per PK, this years PK is allowing more shots, more 'expected goals', more 'scoring chances' and more 'high danger chances' (better quality shots from the prime scoring areas.  In every metric that can be measured, the PK is kinda the same as last year, but slightly worse in all those areas.

Why are they the top rated PK then? The goalies.

Last year:  .830 saves percentage short handed

This year: .943 save percentage short handed.

So again, the PK "looks" better this year but the numbers show the skaters aren't really playing much different. They are allowing the same (or more) number of shots. Same (or more) shots from the prime scoring areas.  What we think of as 'good PK' is really just the goalies making a lot more saves than last year.

The good news...the goalies ARE better than last year on the PK. The bad news....its is unlikely their PK save percentage is going to stay at .943

https://www.naturalstattrick.com/teamreport.php?season=20242025&team=BUF&stype=2

https://www.naturalstattrick.com/teamreport.php?team=BUF

https://www.naturalstattrick.com/playerteams.php?fromseason=20252026&thruseason=20252026&stype=2&sit=pk&score=all&stdoi=g&rate=n&team=BUF&pos=S&loc=B&toi=0&gpfilt=none&fd=&td=&tgp=410&lines=single&draftteam=ALL

https://www.naturalstattrick.com/playerteams.php?fromseason=20252026&thruseason=20242025&stype=2&sit=pk&score=all&stdoi=g&rate=n&team=BUF&pos=S&loc=B&toi=0&gpfilt=none&fd=&td=&tgp=410&lines=single&draftteam=ALL

 

I think .830 might be really really bad.  Also, if I'm reading this correctly... UPL was at .820 last season.  https://www.hockey-reference.com/players/l/luukkuk01.html

[mjd1001]

8 minutes ago, Drag0nDan said:

I think .830 might be really really bad.  Also, if I'm reading this correctly... UPL was at .820 last season.  https://www.hockey-reference.com/players/l/luukkuk01.html

I posted that a couple of days ago so I forgot what site I went to to get the data... But the number I came up with was for all of the goaltenders combined. Obviously the majority of that being UPL but including everyone.

[Drag0nDan]

2 minutes ago, mjd1001 said:

I posted that a couple of days ago so I forgot what site I went to to get the data... But the number I came up with was for all of the goaltenders combined. Obviously the majority of that being UPL but including everyone.

I just spot checked a bunch of goalies - good ones, mediocre ones, bad ones - UPL's .820 was the worst i saw.  

[JP51]

Goaltending and better coverage in high scoring areas they are keeping it to the perimeter much better IMO.