BlowLeafsBlow123

The problem is the swing of having 2 points in your back pocket, then blowing it while giving a team you're fighting for position with the extra. That's a huge swing. It's one thing if you do that against WC teams, but they really had a chance to put some distance behind them in the standings and instead we're bottom feeding again. Our schedule is about to get tougher and we simply didn't bank enough points against several terrible/mediocre teams (Boston, NYR, TOR, CBJ). My thought, if they want to take the next step they need to get 12-14 points out of a stretch like their first 10. It was a pretty soft schedule with more home games than road.

I have a hard time blaming him for those early games. Literally everyone was playing like absolute *****. I still think he's a good hockey player and has a history of decent analytics for a 4th line guy. I think he could be a better player than Krebs with the right linemates. When healthy I could see a 4th line with Greenway-Kozak-Danforth working well. Maybe I'm crazy.

While I agree that their defense looks bad on paper, a few reasons I'm worried this weekend for us (if you hate basic stats, don't read): -Our forward group seems to struggle in these "must have" games where we have a chance to put some pressure on another team that is down bad. We really need more from Tage, Dahlin and Tuch tonight, no ifs, ands or buts about it. In years past, literally every time they got within breathing distance of a playoff spot they'd fall flat on their face. Tage is public enemy number one for me in this regard (Tage only has 13 points in 19 career games against TO and is -4). He really seems to lack the clutch gene and kinda stinks against good teams. Would you believe that he has only 1 Power Play point, an assist in the last 10 games against them. It's something that has always worried me about having him at the top of our lineup, just doesn't match up well against a lot of teams with good centerman. One more stat, Tage has 20 career game-winning goals, while Matthews has 65 for reference. I know that doesn't paint the whole picture but for how many goals he's scored it's a bit surprising/disappointing to see more. -Toronto's forward lines still look pretty good. They cannot take them lightly by any means. Matthew/Nylander and Knies/Tavares are good combos. Don't forget Domi loves to score against Buffalo. Per a Google AI search, Max Domi has 11 goals and 15 assists for 26 points and a +8 in 27 regular-season games against the Buffalo Sabres. That's frankly insane considering his career numbers of 0.61 Pts/Game but not surprising as he's an absolute Sabre killer. While it's never felt like Matthews killed us to me, he has 21G/33P in 29 Games against us, but is likely in line with what he does to other teams. The goal scoring numbers are pretty eye-popping still. Meanwhile Tavares (28G/56P in 48GP) and Nylander (10G/18P in 33GP) have had good success, with Tavares in borderline Sabre killer territory there. Why I think we can and should walk away with 3 out of 4 points: -This is the weakest Leafs team we've faced in 5+ years. Losing Marner is huge as he was often the straw that stirred the drank (8G/35P in 28GP against us). They don't have a competent replacement for him so don't let someone be that guy tonight. With their defense banged up (Tanev and Reilly out), we need to play a hard game and utilize the "dawgs". I think our newly formed PP1 can do some damage here, especially with Tanev out. -Speaking of the Dawgs, I like Benson and Doan to have good games again tonight. Toronto is the type of team where they can shine. I like Benson to get his first goal both of the season and against Toronto tonight (he's got 0G/6A in 4GP). Josh Doan has never played the Leafs, so he can start his reign of terror tonight. -Defense - I think our defense can be up to the challenge tonight. Dahlin seems to get up for the Leafs (14P/-6 in 19GP) and Power is from Ontario (6P/+11 in 10GP). Hoping Timmins has a bit of a revenge game in him haha. -Goaltending - Lyon is 1-1-1 against them but has really strong numbers of 2.06GAA/.927 SV %, which are in line with his overall play this year. I expect he's the starter tonight. We need to get back to taking care of business against the Leafs. We're very back and forth with them, which I suppose is good considering how much better they've been in the standings. Now it's time to take it to them and jump them in the standings. Sorry for the long post, was enjoying checking out the stats and very interested to see if our top players can step it up. They've got to be feeling the need to produce and need to find a way to break through the stick gripping and lack of confidence (freakin Tage, get it together brah).

Correct. A regulation loss here is very very bad. They need to dig deep and need Tage to pull his head out of rear.

It's been a problem since they traded O'Reilly and didn't replace him. The problem now is their top two forward (Tage/Tuch) simply aren't good enough. They're not true 1st liners and can't seem to get it done in tight games. Benson might be their only truly capable top line forward, but still needs a couple years before he's at his peak.

Trust me, I agree wholeheartedly with you. People don't like to put much stock into the 4th line having a big impact on the team. That said, if that line were out there tilting the ice in our favor and helping us get offensive zone starts for our offensive lines, this team could be much better off. Remember the days of Girgs Larry Okposo for a bit there. They used to get it out of there zone, cycle in the offensive zone for a minute and get a whistle. That stuff is valuable. These jokes try to dump it in and fail to retrieve nearly every single time. What is their purpose? Malenstyn is one of the worst forwards I've ever watched, literally can't do anything. Lafferty is a huge disappointment and just doesn't fit here at all. He used to be noticeable any time we played against him, probably why they signed him in the first place. Krebs can continue to be a 4C since he can finally win draws, but man he needs some real wingers on that line. These other two are abominations, while Krebs (imo) is a low end NHL'er/AHL all-star type, who needs the right type of forecheckers on his line.

Yes, they most certainly are not a line you want to have for tough road games against elite opponents. The problem with creating a real shut down 4th line is that it would require Adams admitting not one, but three mistakes. You'd probably have to drop Krebs, Malenstyn and Lafferty from the team, or at least your starting lineup.

I like Benson with Thompson and Norris...two shooters. Benson has the ability to be an elite playmaker but needs to play with someone better than Krebs, who is terrible and not a stylistic fit for Benson's strengths. Every time Benson has had time with Thompson, the line has looked good. As much as I want to add veterans throughout the top 6, I could see Benson filling the role of top 6 playmaking wing on at least one line. Let's go get Marner for the other 🙂

I hold out some hope that Benson become at least a Marchand-lite. I don't expect 100 point seasons but could absolutely see him get over 70 points at his peak, all the while providing strong defense and efficient/High IQ play. Marchand was still in the Q when he was Benson's age and started in the AHL in his age 20 season. He was a solid .75 - almost point per game in his season and a half in the AHL. If you threw a 20 year old Benson on Rochester next year, I think he's quite easily close to a point per game player down there. Looking further at Marchand's career stats and from ages 21-26 he hovered between 40 and 60 point paces until exploding to become the over a point per game guy for 6 years in a row, before starting to tail off in his late 30s here. All in all, I could see Benson getting that extra bit of strength and hopefully improving his skating enough to become that 70-80 point guy in his prime. He's certainly someone you're going to want getting key ice time with his high IQ, defensive acumen and willingness to get his hands dirty. He should be a good fit with a shoot-first center, as he'll do the dirty work for a Tage/Norris type and allow them to get open for shooting opps. To me, he's 100% a core piece and possibly their most important forward for a future build of the team at this point. Put it this way, there's not another forward on the Sabres outside of Tage that I'd trade him for, if that makes sense. I'd love to see them on a line together in fact. Barkov is a rare talent in the Bergeron mold where they just dominate the ice. Barkov has flat out destroyed the Sabres over the years. We have almost no chance to counter what he brings with our center group.

I think Johnson is more likely a Bryson replacement. I cannot see them re-signing Bryson again, really under any circumstance. Perhaps Johnson/JBD can be an ok third pairing. We just need a third pairing that keeps it simple, plays a smart/heady game and doesn't kill them. Clifton, while physical just seems to make a lot of dumb plays out there. In a vacuum he's a fine third pairing d-man but I think this team needs guys that make the right play and play within themselves. My preference would be for them to find their way out of the Samuelsson deal and decide if they're extending Byram or trading him. Ideally they change the look of the defense by quite a bit: X-Dahlin Power-X Johnson-JBD Clifton (if you can't move him along) I would imagine this would have to come in the form of trades, as top 4 d-men are rarely sitting in UFA willing to come to Buffalo. It might be time to trade some forward prospects for established d-men. Worst case scenario you keep Samuelsson and pair him with Dahlin to minimize the damage he can do to your team, as Dahlin is otherworldly. Power's partner is mission critical for this offseason. I still have a lot of belief in this kid and think he'll get back to tilting the ice in our favor more often than not. This year has been rough for him, no doubt. But they've continually saddled him with less than ideal partners (i.e. Jokiharju) and the 2nd pair just never found it's footing. The fact that guys like John Marino and Dante Fabbro were available for very little to nothing and Adams did nothing really chaps my ass. He literally did the bare minimum and simply re-signed guys like Bryson and Joki. They also need to hire better defensive assistants that can help get Power's defensive zone development on track. I have to remind myself that Dahlin was struggling at a similar age, in a similar fashion before all of a sudden figuring out his defensive game. Now he's elite at both ends. Byram, while solid, has not proven he can do well without Dahlin. He's been solid and I'd love to keep him, but don't think it's a luxury we can afford in terms of cap or team construction. Best bet is to move him while his value is high and perhaps you can pull a defensive RD from someone that badly needs an offensive d-man. I really hope we have a new look next season, just not sure I want Kevyn making these crucial decisions.

See above. Apologies for spamming the board with these but thought they spoke well to what we're seeing on the ice. It's fairly easy to see why we're a bad team this year. We're getting terrible results from our 4th line, and basically all but two defensemen are completely under water. Not only that, our 2nd line had completely tanked us early in the season and never truly recovered. Add onto that some piss poor, unclutch goaltending and it's easy to see. They need to identify the weak points (they've started to) and get the right group here. Here's a few more of the drains:

I think you need to try and improve the top 6. If Clifton stays around due to his outlandish contract, then fine, but we're notably worse when he's in the lineup. You are correct on the 4th line. It's probably one of the worst units in the league and both of the anchors are signed through next season. Adams thinking he had it all figured out is hilarious in retrospect. Tying his boat to Beck Malenstyn and Sam Lafferty to change his team around is just comedy gold at this point. Small sample size alert, but it seems Kozak is able to get better results in that spot, at least defensively. He might be worth a longer look at 4C. But then again, I'm very much out on Krebs and don't think he's a real NHL'er at this point. He's hanging on by a thread from my view.

It kills me that Fabbro was available on waivers and we could've grabbed him for nothing. Instead we put up with the combo of Bryson, Samuelsson, Jokiharju and Clifton as our bottom three. That's not to mention icing a player like Gilbert. To me, they need three competent defensive d-men this offseason, at least one true righty to play with Power. Dahlin is fine on the right side and doesn't need someone at Byram's offensive level next to him to be elite. Perhaps Ryan Johnson gets an opportunity considering his age and pedigree. Bernard Docker can also be a passable depth piece. It's about making incremental improvements and weeding out the weak points of the roster. It's death by 1,000 papercuts every year with this team and Adams just doesn't take it far enough.

Are you telling me these aren't the results they were looking for? Not to come in here with saying metrics are everything...but we cannot keep putting guys like Clifton on the ice when the eye test and analytics speak to him being a terrible player for us....

There's no way they bring all these assistants back...right? RIGHT?