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RochesterExpat

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  4. Kevyn and Don, should we really expect more after four years?

    in The Aud Club

    Posted · Edited by RochesterExpat

    I don’t understand how any reasonable person acting in good faith can suggest we shouldn’t expect more after 4 years. They have both failed at their jobs. That being said, GMKA should get one more season and I fully expect he will since I don’t see Pegula firing the GM that’s been a good ol’ yes man since hiring. And, for that matter, I don’t see Pegula forcing GMKA’s hand to fire DG either. 

    I should add I don’t hate GMKA or anything. I just won’t ignore that he’s responsible for building a winning roster at the end of the season and the reality is that GMKA is too much of an optimist and needs some kind of Yin to his Yang (believing too much in analytics and young unproven players, etc). He has certainly improved since he came in (Byram is not “unproven” despite his age and he finally waived Comrie to force the starter spot), but the Sabres have also been hurt by his inexperienced optimism. Case in point: leaning on Levi this season to be a 1A. I got flamed in September for suggesting the only way Buffalo made the playoffs this season was if Levi won the Calder. Of course, I’m sure the same fountain of optimism fans will now flame me for questioning his goaltending genius since he turned UPL into a starter. They’ll just ignore an entire half of a season to justify it in the process—much like they’ll ignore a decade of incompetence to suggest people who are upset with the franchise are somehow not real fans.

    GMKA could use a president of hockey ops or similar to counterbalance his optimistic nature and someone with experience he can lean on. It’s also the only move I could see Pegula making even if I personally don’t like the concept of yet another voice in the room. I think GMKA has potential to be a good GM, but he needs some kind of mentoring and I don’t want to wait for him to develop at the expense of the franchise.

    As for DG, he should be let go, but I don’t expect it to happen. At the very minimum, the assistants need to be shown the door. I really think the team would be a playoff team this season if we simply promoted Mike Weber and Michael Peca to Buffalo and didn’t have Marty Wilford, Matt Ellis and Jason Christie sitting on the benches. The only assistant to keep is Mike Bales.

    I guess that’s the fantasy land I’d like to see. If DG stays, Mike Weber, Michael Peca, and Mike Bales are the assistants and they just go and find a fourth Mike with real experience winning at the NHL level. Then we see how the team looks at the start of next season and if the team has a slow start, fire DG and give Peca the interim coaching gig to see how he handles it.

    • Like (+1) 4

  5. Chris simon passed

    in The Aud Club

    Posted

    17 hours ago, Buffalonill said:

     Screenshot_20240320_170244_Chrome~2.jpg

    I want to add some background to this because I was curious why it was so high since--on the face--it suggest that >90% of NFL players have CTE. That seems incredibly unlikely. There's selection bias in the sample which creates the illusion it's over 90% when it's realistically unlikely to be close to that number. The 376 players were autopsied specifically to look for signs of CTE. While 376 is by no means a small number of players, it's only five more players than in the NFL Hall of Fame. So the sample size is relatively small.

    Among athletes under 30 who passed away and their brains were donated to science, the prevalence was 41%. While that's high, we're once again facing massive confirmation bias. It was only athletes who passed away under the age of 30. It was only athletes whose families donated their brain tissue. I realize this may sound callous, but there is a potential economic incentive to donate brain tissue if you suspect CTE as there will be lawsuits over this in the future. Ultimately, this taints the sample.

    The most comprehensive population study in the US which examined all brain tissue and then later went to confirm athletic participation found 9% of former athletes having "CTE pathology" vs 3.3% for non-athletes exhibiting the same. The highest incidence (15%) was found in football players, particularly those who played after high school.

    Not to diminish the inherent dangers of CTE, but it's probably worth the above context. It's not the best quote as it's misleading because the data is not representative of the body as a whole. If we accept the incidence rate is 9% for athletes (and almost certainly higher for professionals due to longer careers), that's still millions of people affected above the population baseline of 3.3%. That's a huge societal problem and reducing risk factors needs a focus.

    Ideally, we find a means of diagnosing CTE that doesn't require a brain autopsy. I think that would be a massively beneficial step forward.

  10. 2023 Second Round Pick Anton Wahlberg will join the Amerks for the remainder of the season

    in The Aud Club

    Posted

    1 minute ago, PerreaultForever said:

    That's what we need though right? The complimentary guys. I'd hope we try to mold him into a Greenway type at least. We don't need more speedy open ice guys, we need net front guys. A big body who gets in front has my interest. 

    I would not expect him to make the roster however for at least 2 years, maybe more. 

    Agreed. He's not physical in the sense of big open ice hits but in the sense of "net front presence." If you watch the Team Sweden highlights from the WJC, he's pretty easy to spot (#22) because he's always either in the corner winning the puck or sitting in front the net. Unfortunately, in a lot of the WJC games, no one is really contesting him sitting in front of the net, so it's not exactly the best example, but the point is still made.

    The 2nd Swedish goal during the gold medal game against team USA is a particularly hilarious example. He helped retrieve the puck in the corner, saw the puck was moved to the point, and then went to the front of the net. He ends up tipping a shot wide, Sweden recovers, and the puck ends up at the opposite point where Wahlberg is still just standing there. That puck goes in. It's WJ hockey at its finest.

    You mentioned Brett Murray who is honestly a similar player (goes to the net), except Murray never developed NHL speed (among other attributes). Wahlberg, at the very least, has the speed to keep up with Östlund and Lekkerimaki. There's a lot to like about Wahlberg, but he's going to definitely need time to develop. Ideally, he ends up in Rochester for a few seasons where he gets plenty of PK time as well as playing the bumper spot on the power play. That will certainly help his development.

    • Like (+1) 1

  11. When does Pressure return?

    in The Aud Club

    Posted

    1 hour ago, K-9 said:

    Next season. We were in this same spot last year and I expect the players to have learned from that experience. 

    If by the "same spot" you meant we were 7 points out after 65 games as many others have been repeating, that sort of misses the fact we had multiple games in hand on everyone ahead of us. Right now every team in a wildcard spot ahead of us has games in hand on us.

    • Like (+1) 1

  12. 2023 Second Round Pick Anton Wahlberg will join the Amerks for the remainder of the season

    in The Aud Club

    Posted

    11 hours ago, PerreaultForever said:

    I like the size, is he skilled enough to become our version of something like Hornquist was for Pittsburgh? 

    I don't think he's quite there. Others are free to comment. To his credit, he played on Sweden's top line with Östlund and Lekkerimaki during the World Junior Championship, but it was more in a complimentary niche role and not because he was more talented than the 9 other rostered forwards. He does have some wheels though which allowed him to play the top line, but he was there for "grit" and not to be a highlight reel player. He looked good in the tournament although he was overshadowed by his linemates.

    He needs a year in North America (at a minimum) to really see what he offers.

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    Casey Mittelstadt traded for Bowen Byram

    in The Aud Club

    Posted

    This is from Byram's second goal last night and is a perfectly cherry picked small sample sized example to prove a couple of points about this team.

    For those of us with memories impaired from using alcohol as a coping mechanism for Buffalo sports fandom, the needed context is the puck was on the wall and Girgensons won the puck and played it back to Tage on the point. Byram is circled in red.

    bo_goal_2.thumb.JPG.a1fadcd4d51a627a46abbbe8c85c30aa.JPG

    The point here is there is absolutely no hesitation whatsoever by Byram. He's already moving to the net. Tuch (who is right behind him) and is usually one of the only players to reliably crash the net is only now turning to move. Girgs is going to cycle to replace Tage as Tage pinches in. Dahlin is actually moving backward at this point to pinch in for a rebound/pass when it becomes obvious Tage is going to the net with the puck. No one here is making a mistake or anything. It's simply to point out that Byram is quite literally a step ahead of everyone else in Black and Red.

    And that leads me to my next point: coaching. Byram is absolutely a talented hockey player and every scouting report talks about his hockey IQ and vision--just like most scouting reports for early 1st round talents. A D-man instinctively crashing the net in this situation isn't just raw talent. That's from playing in Colorado under Jared Bednar and his staff. That's from a coach who sets expectations with players and holds players accountable. Colorado is a good team in part because a lot of their goals come from players going to the net. And this goes back to tons of people on this board repeatedly talking about "adding grit" or whatever else. While I'm sure some posters still define "grit" as dropping the gloves, I'm of the younger crowd which considers "grit" as the forwards who are going to the boards to win the puck and then turning and going to the net. And it's not simply going to the net. It's staying there and battling with the D-man for position. It's screening the goalie. It's getting to the rebound and just being generally annoying for the other team. It's getting the "dirty" goals.

    Once again, to use cherry picked data, lets just look at the power play scoring differences between Colorado and Buffalo. It's pretty easy to figure out why the league figured out how to counter Buffalo's powerplay.

    Col_PowerPlay.thumb.JPG.224063091cfc297869124d7235642bc8.JPGBuff_PowerPlay.thumb.JPG.a1079f1133dff3c6713bf7efedfbfe1c.JPG

    Back to the point about going to the net: there's no question that Jeff Skinner has slumped again this season. Last season, he wasn't scoring pretty perimeter goals. He was just scoring goals because he was at next to zero distance from the goalie for a large percentage of his shots. He started out the season doing the same, but he's taken steps back and hasn't been crashing the net the same (this somewhat matches up to his and Tage's injuries earlier in the season which may play a part that we're not privy to). But that change in his behavior has been hugely impactful. Now, we can either write Jeff as a headcase, or we can question why the coaching staff has allowed this to go on as long as they have. And the issue extends beyond just Skinner and applies to the vast majority of the roster. Skinner is just the easiest target.

    Lastly, lets look at Byram's first goal. For context, Greenway passed the puck to Benson at the top of the circle, Cozens crashes the net, and Benson shoots a low shot that generates a very fast and high rebound.

    Bo_goal_1.thumb.JPG.a90310bc8c21b2909992bea2ef5d227e.JPG

    Once again, look at what Byram is doing. The live clip shows you just how quickly this happened. Byram didn't get that rebound by seeing where the puck was going and then moving to it. He was already moving to where he was coached to go and he was coached to go there for exactly this reason. He didn't stop skating when he got to the blue line. He just kept moving.

    The second takeaway from that clip is watching Dahlin see the rebound and start cycling back to retrieve... only to realize his D partner is competent and would cover it. So Dahlin ends up kind of just stopping and standing there for a second looking almost confused. It's honestly kind of funny to see. But that's the value that Byram is bringing to Buffalo. Dahlin isn't going to be expected to do everything on defense for 30 minutes a night anymore. If these trends continue and Dahlin and Byram continue to play well together, Dahlin is going to have the opportunity to really elevate his game even further.

    Before I step off my soap box, I want to circle back to an earlier point: a lot of this goes back to coaching. Byram looks like an electric player in part because he's been coached at an NHL level. He knows where he needs to be on the ice and he never stops moving. Not to pick on Benson in that second goal, but he shoots the puck and then just stands there. He looks like he's lost. That's the kind of thing that the coaching staff should address with him after the game so that it doesn't become a habit. But it's also the kind of thing I don't expect our coaching staff to follow up on.

    And to that note, the Colorado broadcast last night took an incidental shot at Buffalo's coaching when they said something akin to, "Mittelstadt has so much more room to grow and develop as he learns how to play at the NHL level under Bednar" and suggesting he was basically a "raw" talent that needed to be molded. This is a player with 341 NHL games played. He shouldn't be learning how to play at the NHL level at this point. The sad part is that I don't even disagree with the Colorado broadcasters. They're right.

    Thank you for coming to my TED Talk. I will now pass my soap box on to the next poster.

     

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  14. Casey Mittelstadt traded for Bowen Byram

    in The Aud Club

    Posted · Edited by RochesterExpat

    I think everyone is overthinking this because everyone wants him to extend 7-8 years, but I fully expect him to get bridged into free agency on a lower AAV (7.5-8) for three years and it wouldn’t surprise me if GMKA and his agent already have a handshake deal in place that gets signed this summer.

    Like many, I’ve been vocal about GMKA being too conservative or taking too long to make decisions. I can’t imagine GMKA suddenly departing from that behavior and making a knee jerk trade without doing an absolutely excessive amount of due diligence. The trade was “leaked” 2-3 weeks before the deadline when Mitts was linked to Colorado and Byram was linked to Buffalo. I took that with a grain of salt like most trade news, but this wasn’t a quickly done trade by any means.

    The Sabres (and his agent) will dangle the expected cap increases of the next few years in front of him if he takes the free agency bridge deal. It’ll also be sold as 3 years of guaranteed money given his injury history—something he might not get in arbitration—and an opportunity to play with Dahlin on a top D pairing before hitting free agency.

    At the time the contract ends, Buffalo will move assets (i.e. Power/Sammy) to keep him if the value is there and it makes sense. Basically Buffalo wants to see if it’s a value add to Dahlin. If not, he’ll be a trade piece or he’ll just simply walk to free agency after having spent 4 seasons and change in Buffalo.

    As for the “kicking the can down the road” argument because we traded Mitts’ contract for Bo’s, I agree in principle, but it’s somewhat of a flawed comparison. Mitts was going to end up a very expensive 3C in the organization because GMKA already hitched his wagon to Cozens and Tage (we can debate this all day but it’s the situation nonetheless). Unloading Mitts for Byram filled a role (Dahlin’s partner) that makes more sense to spend cap on than overpaying for a 3C. There is a reason why Matthews/MacKinnon/McDavid in this league have (expensive) supporting players. How long did we go with Dahlin - Joki? Sammy has done fine with Dahlin—at least when healthy—but is anyone really happy with it? Fine isn’t good enough. Getting out of this endless cycle starts with getting the superstar Swede a serious partner.

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  15. Some STHers will have to purchase resellers license per TBN

    in The Aud Club

    Posted

    5 minutes ago, Weave said:

    How does the team know if I sell my tix?  Is there an electronic transfer that the team performs?

    Ticketmaster tracks transfers and can alert the ticket providers.

    45 minutes ago, Buffalonill said:

    Yikes wtf 

    I honestly think this is just trying to comply with the scalping/resale law of NY that went into effect in 2021. Enforcement appears to have started because of Taylor Swift funny enough.

    The legal definition the state of NY is using for 'resale' (Licensing of Ticket Resellers, Arts and Cultural Affairs Law, Article 25* Tickets to Places of Entertainment):

    8. “Resale” means any sale of a ticket for entrance to a place of
    entertainment located within the boundaries of the state of New York
    other than a sale by the operator or the operator’s agent who is
    expressly authorized to make first sales of such tickets. Resale shall
    include sales by any means, including in person, or by means of
    telephone, mail, delivery service, facsimile, internet, email or other
    electronic means, where the venue for which the ticket grants
    admission is located in New York state. Except as provided in sections
    25.11 and 25.27 of this article, the term “resale” shall not apply to any
    person, firm or corporation which purchases any tickets solely for their
    own use or the use of their invitees, employees and agents or which
    purchases tickets on behalf of others and resells such tickets to such
    invitees, employees and agents or others at or less than the established
    price.     Similarly, the term “resale” shall not apply to any not-for-profit
    organization, or person acting on behalf of such not-for-profit
    organization, as long as any profit realized from ticket reselling is
    wholly dedicated to the purposes of such not-for- profit organization

     

    1 hour ago, PromoTheRobot said:

    That describes me. I live 500 miles away but I give tix to family and I go to a bunch of games but sell the rest. In fact I'm going to be at the three Sabres games in four days Mar 27-30. I already renewed and got no such message.

    I think you're probably fine because you don't fit the legal definition posted above. Giving tickets away to family is certainly allowable. If you're selling at face value or less, you're also fine. It's basically to handle scalping.

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