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RochesterExpat

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  2. Around the NHL 2023 Summer Edition

    in The Aud Club

    Posted

    4 hours ago, PerreaultForever said:

    Or perhaps Asplund was never as good as some people here  who frequently over value marginal players think.

    Admittedly I liked him because he was here during the dark era and, at times, it felt like he was one of the only players giving an effort.

    It’s the same reason I was more upset about losing Lazar than I was about Hall leaving and the unimpressive return. Lazar played the same every night regardless of whether he was the only Sabre on the ice trying. I’ll always have a soft spot for him as a result.

     

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  3. Training Camp Roster Moves

    in The Aud Club

    Posted

    1 hour ago, steveoath said:

    Thing with UPL is interesting. Who claims him AND can keep him on the NHL roster if he gets waived. I don’t think anyone does at this point. 

    Looking only at teams with cap space and then narrowing it down I came up with 3 teams who might claim him:

    - Chicago's current backup is waivers exempt and has 18 games NHL experience with basically UPL numbers.

    - CBJ just claimed Spencer Martin which suggests to me they're going to waive Tarasov (I don't see them waiving Merzlikins). UPL is probably an upgrade on Spencer Martin.

    - Tampa: UPL is an upgrade over Jonas Johansson who is the starter now that Vasi is out. In the very least, UPL is an upgrade over the backup who washed out of the AHL 3 years ago before making a comeback this year.

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  4. We need to talk about Zach Benson making the team this year, 2023

    in The Aud Club

    Posted

    3 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

    I don't think that was ever true. Kulich was just overhyped by fans but I think management knew his 2 way game still needs lots of work and he's not nhl ready. 

    Kulich is impressive enough given his age, but he's still a tier below Quinn/Peterka/Benson. Kulich's contract also slides again this season (as opposed to Rosen's which doesn't). Let him sit another year in the AHL to work on his 200' game and buy a little time on the salary cap window while you're at it. It's much better than placing him on the 4th line in the NHL as far as his development is concerned.

     

    54 minutes ago, Mustache of God said:

    Putting Benson on our top line would be a mistake. This line is going to be drawing the opposing teams top line and there's no way Benson will be ready for that on a nightly basis. It'd also be a mistake to take Tuch off that line, classic case of "if it ain't broke don't fix it".

    I'm not sold on Benson getting a roster slot, but having him with Skinner and Thompson enables DG to pair Tuch and Cozens together with (presumably) Peterka. That's going to be more difficult for other teams to matchup against since it almost becomes 1A & 1B instead of traditional first and second lines. It might take pressure off Thompson/Skinner. Still agree that it will be a serious test of Benson if that were to happen.

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  5. Training Camp Roster Moves

    in The Aud Club

    Posted

    12 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

    2) How many D will we carry and can Ryan Johnson earn an NHL job in camp?  The top 6 are set leaving Stillman, Bryson, Clague and Johnson (waiver exempt) to fight for 1 maybe 2 slots.  I think Johnson starts in Rochester, but he has looked very poised with the puck.

    I don't think the extended look at Johnson is a look at him making the NHL out of camp as much as an evaluation of his readiness to be called up in the event of injury to the NHL roster. Basically he's fighting to be the first call up.

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  7. We need to talk about Zach Benson making the team this year, 2023

    in The Aud Club

    Posted

    13 minutes ago, JohnC said:

    I know this thread is about Benson but related to the issue of earning a roster spot is whether Biro has also earned a spot? From what I have observed (not seen all the games) he has made a good impression. 

    I think Biro earning a spot depends on whether VO plays in place of Quinn and if the Tuch, Thompson and Skinner line stays together. I can see Biro with Mitts and Greenway on the third line. I don’t see Biro with Cozens and Peterka.

    If Benson stays, I don’t think the first line stays together and I don’t see Biro taking VO off the third line. Although I suppose it’s possible. Honestly I think he’d be better in that role than VO, but it’s hard to justify waiving a 30 goal scorer for an AHL veteran.

  9. We need to talk about Zach Benson making the team this year, 2023

    in The Aud Club

    Posted

    Interesting question: if Benson makes the roster, how do people think that affects KA’s willingness to trade other prospects?

    Which of the other first round prospects are most affected?

    14 minutes ago, Taro T said:

    You honestly think he'll beat out Levi?

    Do you mean whether I think Bedard beats out Levi or whether Benson does?

    The truth is I don’t think anyone will beat out Levi for the Calder because I want to believe the Sabres make the playoffs this year. This team is forcing him into a position where, in order for that to happen, Levi is going to have a Calder-winning season. If I gambled on sports, I’d make the parlay bet any day: Buffalo makes the playoffs and Levi wins the Calder. Those events are not independent.

    If Levi doesn’t win the Calder—and assuming Buffalo doesn’t undergo any substantial roster changes—then either the voting really is rigged and they just want to crown the new McDavid, or Buffalo missed the playoffs. The latter I don’t want to think about.

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  14. Training Camp Roster Moves

    in The Aud Club

    Posted

    1 hour ago, Taro T said:

    Not sure of the mechanics of whether the Sabres are the only team that can sign him from Ra-cha-cha should they want to call him up and other teams would need to put in a waiver claim as he's going down to add them to their roster or if they can simply try to offer him a contract like NFL teams can do with guys on other teams' practice squads.  Believe another team would have to put in a waiver claim AND sign him to an NHL contract but am not positive of that.  If another team would need to put in a waiver claim to grab him, it makes sense to send him down with all the other pure AHLers when there's a few hundred guys getting sent down.  Makes it easier to slip through the cracks.

    There are no reentry waivers anymore. Metsa is on an AHL contract. He is not affiliated with the Sabres (or the NHL for that matter). He was just on a "professional tryout" (PTO) contract during camp. This NHL "contract" ended when he was released back to his AHL club. If you want to look at it from a technical perspective, he's not "being sent down" like a player on an NHL contract (e.g. Novikov), but he's instead being returned to his club who basically loaned him to the NHL for camp. Therefore, there's no waivers because he's not an NHL hockey player.

    That being said, any NHL team can offer him an NHL contract at any time. The AHL permits players to sign superseding contracts (i.e. NHL contracts--including the PTO contract he signed to participate in camp). This is different from the KHL where a player must wait until his KHL contract ends before signing an NHL contract. It's just very rare for players to sign contracts with the non-affiliated NHL team while on an AHL contract.

    In fact, it's theoretically possible to sign a player to a PTO and have him attend training camp even if the player is signed by a non-affiliated AHL club if he's on an AHL-only contract. I just don't know of any instances of it happening.

    The short of it: AHL-only players are only AHL players and can sign NHL contracts at any time with any club because they are free agents playing in a different league.

    *disclaimer: it's possible for an AHL club to sign a drafted player to an AHL-only contract (this does happen but it's rare). While on the AHL-only contract, the player's rights are retained by the club who drafted him--similar to how players in Europe are handled--and so only the club who drafted him can offer him an ELC.

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  15. Training Camp Roster Moves

    in The Aud Club

    Posted

    5 minutes ago, LabattBlue said:

    I think the PTO guys are players signed to Amerks contracts, and then the PTO is needed for them to be part of training camp.   Maybe?

    This is correct.

    Metsa only has an AHL contract right now. He was on a PTO to attend Sabres training camp. Buffalo can still offer him a two-way NHL contract if they choose to.

    I’m sure he’s been told that’s the reward if he plays the season in Rochester with the same skill, pace and attitude that he played in the AHL playoffs last season and carried through to when he was released yesterday.

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  19. GDT: Sabres @ Pens- September 28, 2023 - 7:00PM, Sabres.com📺WGR📻

    in The Aud Club

    Posted

    Why give him PP time when you can just take the same minutes and give him more 5 on 5 time? It’s better for his development to get 25 minutes a night of 5 on 5 than it is for him to get 20 minutes 5 on 5 and 5 minutes of PP time if he isn’t going to be quarterbacking the PP any time soon in Buffalo.

    Over a 72 game season that five minutes a night adds another 18 games worth of the 20 minutes of 5 on 5 time. 

  20. What have we learned from training camp so far?

    in The Aud Club

    Posted

    What we've learned from camp and the offseason is the Sabres like to gamble.

    The biggest complaint I have with the roster is that we're asking Devon Levi to win the Calder. He's the clear starter at this point. He's going to need to play 55 or more games--more than he has ever played in a season--and play each game as the well-above-average goalie he is believed to be. That's a tall order for any goalie, much less a rookie.

    These are the only goalies to even play in 40 or more NHL games before their age 22 season since 2005:

    - Steve Mason: Played 61 games his age 20 season, 58 games his age 21 season. Worth mentioning  he was only called up because of injury. He just kept the job. Even CBJ didn't intend to start him in the NHL at age 20.

    - Carey Price: 20 NHL (20 AHL) games his age 20 season, 52 games his age 21 season

    - Carter Hart: 31 NHL (18 AHL) games his age 20 season, 43 games his age 21 season

    - Spencer Knight: 4 NHL / 21 college games his age 19 season, 32 NHL + 11 AHL games his age 20 season, 21 NHL and 2 AHL games his age 21 season.

    - MAF: 21 NHL games at age 19. None age 20 (54 AHL but also a lockout). 50 NHL and 12 AHL games age 21.

    - Vasilevski: 25 AHL, 16 NHL at age 20. 12 AHL, 24 NHL at age 21.

    The only goalies to play 50+ games in an age 21 or earlier season are MAF, Steve Mason and Carey Price--and all those happened before Levi was 8 years old. Most recently Carter Hart played 43 in his 21 year old season, but he at least played 31 games in the NHL the year prior. Levi played 7 NHL games last season (plus 34 college).

    Levi is forced into the role of starting goalie. This isn't a 1A/1B situation. This is a clear starter and backup situation. If we define a starter/backup as 50+ games, we're looking at a total of only 16 goalies in the NHL last season and 17 the year prior. Of 32 teams in the league, only half had a goalie starting 50 or more games.

    If we look at goalies playing the more realistic 55+ games, it's now 12 in 22-23 and 12 in 21-22. 

    Worse still, there's going to be ~27 games where the backup isn't clear--and, unfortunately, t's not clear for positive reasons.

    Comrie played 11 games before injured. In those 11 games, Comrie went 4-7-0 and had a .887 SV% and a 3.45 GAA--he also had the worst GSAx in the league at one point. Across all 19 games of the season, he had a .886 SV% and a 3.67 GAA. Comrie had two great games on the road trip and then his game fell off and he was injured. It's possible he was simply tired and not ready for a starting workload.

    When he returned from injury, he was actually the second best goalie from January on for Buffalo--second only in GSAx to Devon Levi. I was honestly surprised when I learned that. He posted a 5-2-1 record.

    What's even crazier is that he managed to be the second best goalie in Buffalo with regards GSAx despite giving up 10 goals in one game on 49 shots to Dallas. Sweet baby Jesus. Without the Dallas game, he had a .905 SV% and a 2.85 GAA when he returned from injury. If we add the Dallas game in, he had a 3.75 GAA and a .884 SV%.

    UPL was the rookie of the month in January after going 6-2-1 with a 3.05GAA and a .907 SV%. He went 6-2-0 in December with a 3.12 GAA and .908 SV%. 

    In November he was 1-1-1 with a 4.33 GAA and an .845 SV%.

    Then February he was 2-3-0 with a 4.2 GAA and an .858 SV% including getting pulled in a game against Toronto 12:09 into the game after giving up 4 on 10 shots.

    March was a 3.96 GAA (when adjusting for coming in to relieve Craig Anderson in a game) and a .879 SV%. He was 1-3-2 in the month.

    And he played one game in April with a .929 SV% and 3 goals against to go 1-0-0.

    I realize it's the complaint shared by most here and I'm just restating the obvious but it still needs to be said. It's not doubting that Levi isn't a future NHL goalie. It's just the question of whether we're wasting a year of the "window" on what would normally be the first (of typically many) growth/development season for a young goalie.

    We are gambling that an untested 21 year old goalie can do something that's essentially unheard of in today's NHL and would justifiably earn him the Calder Trophy.

    Lets break down the best case scenario: Levi can handle a starting load and Eric Comrie is a good goalie, but can only handle a load typical for a backup. UPL is inconsistent and is waived because blowing a roster spot on three goalies is brutal.

    Eric Comrie is probably the best backup goalie we have, but after he returned from injury last season, he only played in 8 of 37 games. And, absent one absolutely atrocious game from both him and the entire team, he was at least consistent in net. But playing in 8 of 37 over an 82 game season means he gets 18 starts. Do we expect Levi to start 64 games? That's how Winnipeg used him. Winnipeg also had Demko as a starter and not a 21 year old rookie.

    We don't have a backup plan because our best backup is Eric Comrie--who might honestly be absolutely fine as a backup goalie--who isn't a starting goalie. If he doesn't work, we are forced to run with an inconsistent UPL. The same goalie who dropped some important games last season at a time when we needed them most--games that were important because of a stretch in November where Comrie dropped a bunch of games.

    In short, this team makes the playoffs if Levi wins the Calder. If Levi doesn't win the Calder, it's going to be another lost season.

    No pressure kid.

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  22. Training Camp Roster Moves

    in The Aud Club

    Posted

    Just now, French Collection said:

    The flip side is can EJ handle the workload of 2nd pairing?

    He pulled 77 games two years ago with 17:17 ATOI and 63 games last season with 17:15 ATOI. If Muel can lift up Joker allowing for more balanced minutes for all pairs on 5v5, and Dahlin/Clifton/Muel eat the PK minutes (EJ was never going to be on the PP anyway so that doesn't matter), that 16-17 minutes might be a reasonable expectation for 2nd pair 5v5.

  24. We need to talk about Zach Benson making the team this year, 2023

    in The Aud Club

    Posted

    10 hours ago, North Buffalo said:

    Benson on side boards needs more strength... saw him get knocked off his pegs too often... great hands but could also use some more speed which may come as he matures and gains weight.

    I agree that he's been bumped off quite a bit, but Benson should get credit/recognition for not quitting. Even when he's been bumped off the puck he stays on the attacking player. He doesn't give up.

    That was Mitts' problem when he first came into the league and something that drove me nuts since Mitts is 6'1"(6'2"?) and has a long enough reach to at least disrupt the takeaway. Instead, Mitts would get bumped off the puck and quit. So far in the prospect challenge and preseason games, Benson has shown a willingness to keep after the puck. He's quick with his stick and he's a smart player so he's winning puck battles that most players his age don't win and that's partly why he's so noticeable on the ice.

    I still think he goes back to Juniors because the ELC slide rule and the cap situation with Skinner's contract. On the plus side, he looks like he could be the long-term replacement for Skinner considering how I think he's looked with Tage in the small sample size.

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