jame
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Posts posted by jame
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29 minutes ago, nfreeman said:
There's one huge difference: the outcome in a buyout is known, while the outcome in paying the bonus and then trading the player (i.e. whether you'll be able to get a better trade) is unknown.
Can you cite any examples of paying a big bonus to a player and then trading him?
And your first sentence is an excellent example of why many people here have had issues with you -- and why you are likely to find yourself in time out again soon.
It is known. A deadline limits return. In fact Botts came out and stated exactly that (“the cost would go up”).
a deadline is used to force a result, to drive a negotiation towards compromise. The trading of a star player should never be executed within the framework of finding a compromise. Instead, you do what Colorado did. They set a high value, and didn’t trade their disgruntled star until that value was met... even when it meant starting the season with that player... I think finding an example would require researching contracts and trade dates. I am currently not willing to put in the effort
Botts failed to get either a top prospect or a guaranteed premier pick for 5 years of an all star center.
its embarrassing
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5 hours ago, nfreeman said:
While I think the necessity of trading ROR is a legitimate question (one which I do not agree with your answer, but still legitimate), the above is where I think you are on pretty shaky ground. I think it’s very unusual for a team in the Sabres’ situation with ROR’s bonus to eat the bonus and then trade him. I think at least 26 NHL owners, and maybe all of them, would instruct the GM to either keep him or trade him before the bonus is due.
Really? It’s almost like you don’t think NHL buyouts exist.
owners flush huge amounts of money down the toilet all the time, when it’s in the best interest of the team. There is not much material difference between pay a huge signing bonus and then trading a player because that money bought you a better outcome for your Team (trade value), and paying a huge buyout because that money bought you a better outcome for your team (cap space)
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1 hour ago, erickompositör72 said:
2019 third round pick, forward prospect Shane Bowers (drafted 28th overall, currently playing at BU), AHL goaltender Andrew Hammond
Nothing to really hang their hat on, at this point.
This shines a light on jame's negative bias, no?
Nope.
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1 hour ago, LGR4GM said:
Which part of the Duchene trade outside the 1st is amazing? I'm honestly asking, I haven't looked at the trade since it occurred.
Samuel Girard was a blue chip prospect. Comparison wise, it would’ve been like us getting Jordan Kyrou or Robert Thomas.
They got / we got
Girard >>>>>>> Nothing
Kamenev = Thompson
Ottawa protected 1st >>> St Louis Protected 1st
Bowers >>>> Nothing
2nd rounder = 2nd rounder
3rd rounder > Nothing
Hammond cap dump > Sobotka cap dump
Nothing >>>> 4 years of Berglund contract
Botts didn’t even land on the same planet as Colorado...
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19 minutes ago, Scottysabres said:
Scandella's value is low at this time, to the bolded, we have until next deadline to move him, with a potentially better team around him next season, why would not trading him now, at a low value point, be worth more than a year from now, where his value most likely would raise?
There is a long game to be played here, I know you know this. Beyond the "satisfy me now" scenario's.
Player values don’t shift as much as perceived... most GMs / scouts rely on their work and profiles they’ve built.
right now, teams value short term... more than 20+ game rentals. Scandella absolutely has more trade value right now... than next deadline when his value at absolute max would be a 2nd rounder (rental cost standards exist).
right now, we could conceivably get a decent forward with an extra year or two (ideally center capable), for Scandella
but I am curious... if there was a 28 year old forward, with center capability, never scored more than 35 points in a season, and signed for 1 more year at the same cost as Scandella (or less)... would you make a straight up hockey trade of Scandella for a hypothetical player X ?
our d group for this year and next year, would be:
Dahlin-Bogo
Pilut-Risto
Mccabe-Beaulieu/Hunwick/Nelson/Guhle
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7 minutes ago, erickompositör72 said:
As long as your acknowledging that. Further, we really don't know what was on the table for any of the deals, nor how far any GM he dealt with could have been pushed, even with the best negotiator. JBott's record with trades strikes me as pretty balanced, which leads me to believe he has a vision he's building, rather than trying to "win" every trade (that's near impossible to do).
Re:the bolded- not sure who you're referring to, or how luck would be involved...?
His one and only major move is the ROR and it was a total disaster trade. He got mediocre futures (look at the Duchene haul, the ROR trade pales in comparison)... and he took on two colossally stupid cap dumps. Of course, once again his awful decision making is mitigated by the craziest stroke of luck ever (a player walking away from 4 years of cap waste....
Dahlin = luck (winning lottery)
Skinner = luck (full NMC Clause allowed him to dictate Toronto or Buffalo or nowhere)
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8 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:
From Jbot’s perspective there is no reason to trade Scandella now because he remains under control and he’ll likely be able to trade him for similar or better assets over the summer.
On the other hand I’d trade Baloo now. I doubt Jbot wants to qualify him at 2.4. Better to trade him now then move on from him for nothing in the summer. That said there may be little or no market for Baloo considering his PT.
I wouldn’t put it past Botts to have such a poor perspective... but let’s break this down:
1. Botts has stated he won’t be trading futures for rentals
2. Botts has stated how much he values getting the young core playoff experience
first conclusion: Botts will look to make a “hockey trade”... that’s a player for player type deal.
1. What’s the deepest NHL position on the current Sabre’s roster? LD
2. Who are the top LDs on the team with a long term or potential long term value to the Sabres? Dahlin, Pilut, McCabe (age/RFA). You could even debate adding Beaulieu to this list given his age and RFA status.
second conclusion: the most expendable/tradeable asset is 1 of Scandella, Hunwick, and Beaulieu
1. Beaulieu has been a scratch level #6-8 defensemen for the last 2 years. He’s trade value is minimal, and certainly not something that would help with a playoff push
2. Hunwick was a cap dump level player, who could maybe pull a late round pick as a team could value the depth... but he certainly doesn’t have the value to return an asset that would help with a playoff push
3. Scandella, through all his flaws this year, is still an under 30 year old defensemen, who has played top 4 pair minutes for most of his career, and has an additional year of below market value cost control.
final conclusion: Scandella is the best asset we have to improve our playoff chances this year, without sacrificing a piece of the future.
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2 minutes ago, erickompositör72 said:
Can you articulate a little more clearly how this played into dealing ROR? JBotts has spent quite a bit of time in successful NHL front offices, so I don't think experience would be at issue.
Like I said, there is no way to prove or disprove that dealing ROR was not the best thing for the leadership dynamic in the locker room. Are there any other clues from the ROR deal that you can point to that would lead you to believe he is incompetent or inexperienced? Or is it just purely your hunch? (which of course, you're entitled to, but you can't state it as fact)
If this is a key pillar to your criticism of JBott, I would say you're building your stance on something that cannot be known.
Trading him based on a signing bonus deadline... a good, experienced GM would’ve been capable of convincing an owner about how much that would affect the return and put the team in a hole.
one can easily point to the return Colorado got for Duchene by waiting... well into the season... to trade Duchene.m (and their were similar lockerroom narratives coming out of Colorado at the time).
A good GM knows talent wins, and winning builds culture. Subtracting talent, to build culture, to then win... is a stupid approach. Botts is going to survive by lucking his way in to two additional high talent players.
as to the bolded... yes, absolutely. My position is as unknown as those who use a culture/lockerroom narrative to defend the move.
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38 minutes ago, Scottysabres said:
Frodo is an elite superstar. Bottom 6 forward???????
Frodo took on the moniker of battling mentally with the ring, Frodo carried the ring nearly 90% of the time, Frodo stepped forward WHILE the group around him squabbled and dedicated his very life to carrying the ring to Mt. Doom and throwing it in to the lava.
In short, Frodo came, Frodo saw, Frodo conquered.
ROR couldn't hold Frodo's jock strap.
In the interest of full disclosure, it did take Frodo 3 seasons. Just sayin...……..;}
ROR as Frodo would work... if a Moronic Gandalf sent him to the undying lands before allowing him to ascend Mount Doom and complete the mission. A foolish Gandalf overreacted to the impact of the ring on Frodo’s mental state and figured that the remaining members of the fellowship could get the job done without him.
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8 hours ago, That Aud Smell said:
Not for nothing: He's trending toward being an 80-point player this season.
With some distance from the trade, and perhaps in light of the numbers he's posting this season, I am more resolute than ever that there were non-on-ice considerations of which we are ignorant, but which have been talked about here as rumours and/or insider information, that compelled this trade to happen.
For that reason, I think it's a fool's errand to talk about the Sabres potentially winning that trade in terms of hockey assets.
JBOT did not move a player of ROR's quality in the manner he did without good cause. (Btw, I'm not saying it was the right decision -- just that a rational GM perceived good cause.) This was a bitter, jagged pill to swallow.
Or Botts is not competent or experienced enough to make good decisions
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1 hour ago, LGR4GM said:
Honestly I don't feel guilt, I feel like I've been gaslighted. You still haven't responded to what your issue is about how Lehner was handled.
Lehner, like numerous other players in the Botts era wasn’t held accountable.
Lehner should’ve been on waivers... it don’t care if he would’ve been claimed (he wouldn’t have).
The hindsight is that clearly a “wake up call” is what Lehner needed. So it turns out that what would’ve been best for the team, would’ve also been what was best for Lehner and could’ve produced a different outcome other than flushing an asset down the toilet.
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1 hour ago, LGR4GM said:
Here is the full exchange so people can see that you are overly condescending when calling people out. It has become a pattern with you in the month you have posted here.
I tell you I will respond in full tomorrow because I am on my phone, note it was almost 11pm too. Then you respond with I am lazy and follow it up with another comment 2 days later calling me lazy again. Your tone on here is absolutely terrible. I am starting to think I should block you.
You chose to play the “I know what you would say” card... that’s on you. And that type of lazy attack method is more offensive than pointing out it’s laziness.
Nice job quoting the entire exchange and leaving out the 2nd time you arrogantly presumed and ascribed an opinion on me.
Why did you feel the need to relitigate this? Feeling guilt?
1 hour ago, LGR4GM said:I am more than happy to debate the failures or issues with Botterill. ROR trade, Housley, the roster last year overall but not waiving Lehner is just not the hill to die on here.
No one is dying in a hill.
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21 hours ago, LGR4GM said:
So let's break this down because yes, you would have blamed Botterill regardless of what he did.
First, if he had been waived mid season which was not originally what I thought you meant, you would have been in here now saying how bad Botterill was for forcing Ullmark up early and having Johnson as a backup. That would have been your argument. Botterill sucks because he waived his starting goalie and had to call up Ullmark who wasn't a guaranteed starter in the middle of the season.
Second, if he waives Lehner mid season and he is claimed you would have been blaming Botterill for losing an asset for nothing, which you are basically doing now by saying they couldn't fix Lehner and now see what he is doing. Saying they could have gotten him right implies you are mad that they did not get him right and would equally be mad if they waived him and he was claimed. You don't know if he wouldn't have been claimed. You don't know if he would have. You don't get to use a whataboutism every time someone pokes a gaping hole in your theory. This what if scenario is already falling apart because what if he gets claimed or not, is completely subjective.
Third, they keep Lehner into the offseason and qualify him. That would mean he gets more money than that 4mil correct? Would they not have to add to his deal as an RFA? Okay, so they qualify him. You are now mad at Botterill because Lehner hasn't gotten his head right and he is wasting cap on a bad asset. Lehner would have come off a bad season and gotten paid, another strike for Botterill. Lehner then comes in and looks the same because why wouldn't he? The system in Buffalo is far more wide open then the bore fest that gets played on Long Island.
Fourth, they pay Lehner and then in October when final cuts are made they waive him. He goes unclaimed and goes to Rochester. You then complain about Botterill wasting the cap on Lehner and what a bad deal it was and how he should not have qualified him.
Fifth, they pay Lehner and waive him and he gets claimed, now Botterill is an idiot for not trading Lehner. See above.
Sixth, they pay him and he stays and he's good... THE ONLY scenario that you can't criticize Botterill for and the least likely outcome by far considering Lehner got better after he was not signed and needed to go through that process to get his head straight AND he plays in a system that directly benefits the goalies. How do I know that? Greiss has a .927sv% let alone what Lehner has. So again, Lehner stays and is mediocre. You criticize Botterill for not getting rid of him.
This is a no win scenario. If you are okay with him getting waived and claimed then why are you not okay with him not getting qualified? The answer is simple, you don't like Botterill and will twist anything he does into a negative to support your argument.
First, you’re wrong again. Last year I wanted Ullmark up after it was clear that the Lehner/Johnson tandem was a disaster. Similarly I’ve called for Olofsson and Pilut to be in Buffalo since day 1. There is a difference between 20 year old professional rookies who I don’t think are ready (Tage, Mitts), and 23-24 year old professionals.
your attempts to “know me” are ridiculous fails
second, I answered this in my original response. I guess your argument is that I’m a liar.... it is interesting that you’ve made your entire argument about me, and not Botts. And to see you retreat to an argument that is essentially “you don’t know what would have happened” while simultaneously pretending to know what I would’ve thought is... let’s say, mildly entertaining. Re: claim... you failed to deal with the facts I presented. Objective facts. Name a 4 million dollar player who has been claimed off waivers mid season?
third, no. The first time you attempted to interject a fact, and you’re wrong (qualifying offer doesn’t require a raise).
The rest of your points are irrelevant. The point was that one team was able to get Lehner right and put a playoff system in place around him.
The winning scenario was putting Lehner on waivers to try to help get him right... it was the only winning scenario. If he got claimed (which there is literally zero evidence or logic to believe he would), then organizationally we are in no different place than we are today. If he didn’t get claimed, and it didn’t generate a wake up call, then we are in no different place than today. But if it did generate the wake up call, we could be in a different place.
the fact that you put so much effort into making this about me, is evidence that being a fair judge of Botts is not something you are willing to be.
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22 hours ago, LGR4GM said:
Oh look, a backhanded insult. Maybe I was going to bed at the time and it wasn't lazy at all. I can't say the same for your arguments because when you are caught you turn to insults. It is a pattern that has been repeated on here several times in the last week. Further you rarely defend your points with as much info as others.
Your presumptuousness is a lazy attempt to gain an argumentative advantage without having to defend your own view.
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2 minutes ago, IrwinNelson said:
Thank you. You’re one of my favorite new posters, especially in the draft thread. Hope you keep it up, no matter how many times people try to discourage you.
Thank you
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Really liked Erod-Reinhart combo tonight, I want to see that pair stick when Mitts returns
skinnet-Eichel-Poms
Olofsson god dammit!-Erod-Reinhart
Sheary-Mittelstadt-Thompson
Girgs-Larry-Okposo
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Just now, IrwinNelson said:
I understand all of this. But compare the Duchene trade to the Hoffman trade and they are not all that alike. In one situation (Duchene) no team had any issues dealing with the other teams they were trading with. Dorian (Ottawa/Hoffman), in all of his infinity wisdom, came out before trading Hoffman saying he wouldn’t trade within the division. Florida reached out to San Jose and asked them to acquire him, and then they would then trade for him.
Like I said in my first post, it’s semantics, but the Hoffman deal most definitely isn’t a three-way deal in the truest sense of the word.
You’re absolutely correct.
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Just now, LGR4GM said:
I'm gonna respond tomorrow because I'm on my phone but if we had waived Lehner mid season you most certainly would have been mad at botterill. I'll give my full response tomorrow but you're proving my point. This was a kobayashi maru for botterill in your eyes.
I don’t know why you think that... maybe because it’s a lazy way to debate.
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19 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:
Why wouldn't he have gotten claimed? He got signed so clearly someone was interested. I'm gonna use your strategy against you. You said send him to Rochester, provide an argument why he would have cleared waivers.
Where do I say no one wanted him? I want that quoted back. I've said we didn't want him.
Like i said, it was going to be a no win with you.
4 million dollar goalie performing at an unqualifiable level don’t get claimed mid season on waivers. How many 4 million dollar players have ever been claimed mid season?
he ended up getting signed for 1/4 of the money, well into the offseason, after every other team said hell no.
its also worth noting that the team that finally signed him... wasn’t under the same coach/management structure.
Regardless... so what if he’s claimed? Once the season was long gone, what was the risk in sending him to Rochester? He either gets to Rochester and gets the wake up call and you benefit from that... or he gets claimed, in which case he gets the wake up call elsewhere which is no different than the outcome we found ourselves in... other than the fact that we arrived at that outcome via Botts doing nothing instead of something.
i wouldn’t have faulted Botts for being proactive and trying to help/fix Lehner. I fault him for not having the skillset
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1 hour ago, IrwinNelson said:
Hoffman was traded twice. That’s not how a three way trade works.
That’s because technically a 3 way trade is not “legal”. Per the CBA a trade can only involve two teams, which is why a 3 way is really just two or more separate transactions.
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Just now, PerreaultForever said:
Ya, real shame we didn't have Trotz coaching us tonight against the Islanders. That stupid Housley only got us a 2 goal win. Damn rookie coach.
How did I know you’d take the opportunity to appeal to a single game authority...
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1 minute ago, Eleven said:
Mine is back and EIchel just took someone HARD into the boards.
Sounds like someone got a talking to after the first islanders goal ?
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7 minutes ago, Eleven said:
My stream is dying ?
Same
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Heck of a 2nd period.
Trade: Ryan O'Reilly to St Louis Blues
in The Aud Club
Posted
So it’s impossible for me to know the unknown but you are fully capable of knowing the unknown.
This is me showing restraint.