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PerreaultForever

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Posts posted by PerreaultForever

  1. 3 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

    No, I am not. If you had better reading comprehension and not this incessant desire to one up everyone around here constantly, while comparing every other thing to the Bruins, you would realize that. Also, nice strawman argument. 

    Let's do this correctly. I can look at 5v4 (normal pp) numbers. So this wont cover all the pp numbers but the majority, as 4v3 and 5v3 are excluded. 

    Buffalo ranks 31st in FOW% with a 48.32%. I am using goals for per 60 to adjust for ice time. Buffalo ranks 28th with 5.83 GF/60 on the pp. At face value this supports the idea that PP success and FOW go together. However we need more data points and so let us look at the 2nd team in FOW% Pittsburgh. At 60.45% they are 12.13% above Buffalo for FOW%. Sounds great... until you sort by GF/60 and Pittsburgh plummets to 29th. Pitt has the 2nd best FOW% but the 29th best GF/60 on the pp. You really get a mixed bag when you compare the two variables. In this case we are using faceoff wins as the independent variable for scoring pp goals aka the dependent variable. Ottawa sits 4th in FOW% with 57.92% but drops to 26th in GF/60 with 6.25. In fact there are 4 teams below 7 GF/60 in the top 10 of FOW% meaning that there are at least 4 teams that are 21st or worse in GF/60 on the PP. Now the inverse of that is this, the other 6 teams in the top 10 for FOW% are also in the top 12 for GF/60. 

    Where I am I going with this? Winning faceoffs can matter. I think we can all easily agree on that but I use the word "can" because sometimes it doesn't. You know those draws you win and it splits the defender and scoots down the ice? You get 1 win for that but it doesn't help your team. You know the draw you win by slamming it forward into the corner there is a puck battle? You get a win for that too but depending on the puck battle depends on if it matters. What I am saying is all FOW are not the same even though the counting stat treats them the same. Buffalo needs to be better at faceoffs for sure. Every little bit helps and being better at faceoffs is a little bit of help. But we can see with a team like Pittsburgh, who was 2nd in the entire league that FOW% alone doesn't improve your PP, hell Pittsburgh had a worse PP than we did (again at 5v4). The NYR have the best FOW but are 5th for GF/60, TB has the best GF/60 but is 26th in FOW. 

    What I can tell you is that having a good GF/60 on the pp matters to playoffs. Out of the top 10 teams, 6 are still in the playoffs now and 9 of 10 made the playoffs with Arizona being the exception. In the bottom 10, the only team that made the playoffs was Winnipeg. Shoutout to Wash and Vegas though who are just outside that cutoff. The conclusion here is simple, you can be good at the PP but bad at faceoffs, you can be good at faceoffs but bad at PP. You can be bad at faceoffs but a playoff team but you can't really be bad at PP and be a playoff team. 

    Am I arguing against the "fact" (it isn't a fact at all) that winning a faceoff could give you more zone time on the PP, not really because I don't have any data to support or reject that claim. Of note, you have not presented any data that would support your claim. What I am arguing against is the notion that being good at FOW will magically make the PP better because the numbers don't support that. I would guess that FOW have less impact on PP success than other factors that are not part of this discussion. For example HDSF has a bit stronger correlation although even then, Buffalo sits 32nd and Pitt sits 5th so clearly other factors are involved (like screens, shot selection, pre shot movement, all the other stuff I don't have). Will fixing the Sabres faceoff wins make us better, probably, but will it magically make the PP better... no. Other things are more important to fix, my guess is pre-shot movement is the biggest one from what ik about models that track that and use it in their expected goals. 

    Hopefully this helps you understand my original point. 

    Stats are a funny thing. There are many factors that go in to many things and correlating face offs with wins would be an extremely difficult argument to isolate accurately without considering all the other factors that go into wins. 

    But there are simple things that just make sense. You win a face off, you have the puck. That's a good thing. What you do with it after that is a whole other set of issues and data. Hence, face offs matter. 

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  2. 2 hours ago, ... said:

    Where was this Colorado team the past 3 games?

    They dug down, but keep in mind Dallas was not as good. Different type of play but it was a lot like Boston Florida in that Boston dug down but Florida wasn't as good. Both series could still be over in 6. 

    But all 4 series into game 7s would be excellent entertainment. 

  3. 1 hour ago, dudacek said:

    I agree with this specifically and the philosophy in general.

    Some people seem to think Johnson is among our top 4 defencemen. I don't think he is in our top 6.

    If he's not he should be playing, not watching.

    I have noticed some over valuing of him around here. Not sure anyone puts him in the top 4 but they definitely think he's more NHL ready than I do. 

    It will be interesting to see which D Ruff values most and how he pairs them up. There could be some changes as some adapt to his system and structure and some have more trouble with it. 

  4. 40 minutes ago, dudacek said:

    Think he was talking about Johnson.

    That would make more sense than paying Samuelsson to not play but makes no sense to me either. The whole keep them on the roster thing they did with Granato has to end. Young guys need to play and learn and work to get back. They do not need to sit around and watch. 

    I can run you a comparable (since I'm familiar with them) on how the Bruins sent Lohrei down multiple times all year. Every time he started to struggle a little or someone else was healthy they didn't  send Lohrei to the press box. they sent him to Providence. On a real hockey team your NHL practice time should not be more valuable than your AHL game time (and practice).

    If Johnson is good enough to beat someone out of the line up he should get that opportunity (like Lohrei over Gryzlek) but if he's not, he should be in Rochester. 

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  5. 2 hours ago, Taro T said:

    Presuming all are healthy, a big if considering there's no word on how Samuelsson is recovering from the shoulder injury, would have him the typical 7 but taking a few games from Jokiharju.  He would be the 1st guy into the lineup when the inevitable injuries hit.  Bryson is the 8 out of the gate.

    So you're going to pay your #7 D over 4 million dollars? That in no way works. You have to trade him then. You ready to do that?

    • Disagree 1
  6. "In over their heads" to me is a strange way to look at it but maybe we aren't too far apart, we maybe just word things differently. To me it's a lack of continuity and veteran leadership. Adams plan is that this group (himself included I think) learn from their mistakes and eventually get it. How that is supposed to happen I have no idea. 

    So you have a bad team, and you tank. You start there. You have absolutely nothing left because you stripped it all away to tank. That's your start and then you build with a hotshot superstar and his tandem bike partner. What else does Murray do? He gets a competitive 2 way center in ROR, a tough D man in Bogo, a big young goalie projected to be good in Lehner, a power forward in need of a new start in Evander Kane (as a side note it is funny to see Evander Kane mentioned as a player style we need in the playoff thread). All of that seems logical and are things we talk about now that they are gone. But it doesn't work. He traded away picks, drafted poorly and failed to fill out the roster. Most importantly coaching fails. So what do we do? We blame the players. We start again. 

    JBot sees we have no D. He tries to get a whole bunch of them but none of it comes together under horrible rookie coaches. He signs another big shot forward. His drafting is better, but not great. Once again we blame the players AND the coaches. So Adams tears it down and starts again. Now we have so many young prospects we don't know what to do with them and finally a veteran coach, but still little to no veteran leadership. 

    I know I've left things out but there's a lot and I've typed enough for now. The main point being that everything currently being advocated for has already been tried over the Pegula era except hiring a competent veteran coach. Now we have that. So, MAYBE, it can finally get going in the right direction. If this fails, I truly have no ideas other then to say it's the water. Ya'll be best to move. 

  7. 42 minutes ago, That Aud Smell said:

    Jeebus Christmas, man. This post ⬆  ranks among the worst I've ever responded to on this board.

    I'd suggest you think about things a little less.

    And not for nothing: That meme depicts an animatronic orangutan (so, a great ape - not a monkey) that is malfunctioning in such a way as to amusingly suggest questions to the viewer like "bro, you serious?" It is a modern classic. One of my favourites. 

     

    Yes it is. and it's not always appropriate. But whatever. Stand on the ground you want to. 

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  8. 2 hours ago, JohnC said:

    If you want to scapegoat someone then direct your attention to the GM who put this team together and hired the HC and kept him on longer than he should have. This roster was inadequate from a talent standpoint and from the way the team was constructed. Okposo as a player and captain was an inconsequential factor in this team's failure. It's obvious that Okposo had a low-key personality and not hard in your face challenging style of leadership. He is who he is. To expect him to be something he was not was unrealistic. 

    I didn't scapegoat anybody. Stop making stuff up to make your points. 

    If Okposo isn't that guy (and he isn't) then he shouldn't have been named captain just cause he was what? Likeable? Old? It was just one of many dumb things this franchise has done. He was a bad captain, simple as that. The lack of good veteran leadership on this team is a huge issue. Huge. imo the "plan" is dumb unless it has in fact just been a difference of opinion on timelines and Adams is set to shift things this off season. If they do not make moves and give Ruff what he will need to win it'll be goodbye Adams and get ready to start again. 

    I do laugh in general at the "inadequate from a talent standpoint" argument that I see now and again which gets juxtaposed against the how great Quinn and Benson and Peterka and Thompson etc. are. We have more first round drafted players than ANY other NHL team. We have a ton of young talent. Compare them to Boston. They have Pasternak. Offensive superstar. An aging Marchand and who as high end offensive talent? DeBrusk maybe? That's about it. Zacha is middling. Coyle is a good 2 way forward but he's no offensive star. That's it. Way less "talent" than the Sabres, and yet..................................... 

     

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  9. 27 minutes ago, Second Line Center said:

    Kane asserting his will on that last shift….can talk all we want about a bottom 6 but your top 6 needs at least one guy that plays like that.  At least when Kane wants to.  

    There's absolutely no reason (physiologically) that Tage Thompson should not be able to play like that and assert his will. Can Ruff change the reason (psychological) that he doesn't? Stay tuned to next season to find out. 

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  10. 2 hours ago, ... said:

    I predict copious Boston goonery in the third.

    This did not age well. 🙂

     

    I think everyone here would agree that we all hope Ruff can make the Sabres into a team that doesn't quit when they are back up against it the way the Bruins showed it tonight. 

    I think they will still lose the series, but if they get lucky in game 6, game 7s are always a who knows what will happen thing. 

  11. 3 hours ago, JohnC said:

    The Sabres were a flawed team from a deficiency in talent and from a construction standpoint. On top of those problems there were coaching deficiency issues. It didn't matter who the captain was and how he handled that role. It wouldn't have made much difference in altering the situation. There are a variety of leadership styles. Just because he wasn't publicly vocal doesn't mean that he wasn't a leader in the room. What I'm stressing is that Okposo recognized as did many players in the exit interviews recognized that there were serious foundational problems to this staff and team that had nothing to do with the leadership ability of their former captain. 

    My recommendation is simple: Improve the roster by adding more talent to it. (It is the same recommendation that everyone else is offering.) That's the major source of this team's failure.  

    Ya ya ya, but that's not what I said. I didn't say he'd have CHANGED things, but a good captain takes responsibility publicly. If he doesn't, nobody else does either. 

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  12. 7 hours ago, dudacek said:

    He's not.

    It's probably a reference to the fact New Jersey may be paying a portion of his salary.

    Like if New Jersey owes him $3M this year and the Sabres signed him for $2M, Lindy would stlll be making $3M, with NJ paying $1M

    Really? I was always under the impression that these contracts had clauses in them with releases if you took another coaching job. That's why a lot of them flirt with broadcasting for a year or two after firings. That's a double pay but if they coach they get a release. I could be wrong. Each contract is likely different but I don't know why a team wouldn't have that clause in. 

  13. 6 hours ago, Doohickie said:

    Show me on the doll where the team hurt you.

    American Girl Doll GIF by Team Coco

    13 years of abuse. You know I think the one that hurt the most (more than tanking) was how they folded up after that season starting, what was it 10? more? game win streak and it momentarily looked like we were on to something. Most other years we've just flirted with winning but that one felt real and I fell off that bandwagon hard. 

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  14. 8 hours ago, SwampD said:

    With good reason. How many videos of Marchand (who I like) have we seen over the years “getting away with something”?… a lot! And that hit that “set the tone” of the last game, was way worse than the hit that got Aaron Rome suspended for the rest of the Stanley Cup finals.

    I love when they get beat with their own game.

    Fair, except for one thing. It's really not their own game and hasn't been for years. Most long time Bruins fans have been complaining about how much they aren't that every season since. That was a heavy hard team (2011) . Most of their roster now isn't anything like that. 

  15. 1 hour ago, nfreeman said:

    You’re completely justified in doubting last year’s group.

    But next year’s group now includes a HOF coach.

    Lindy is going to be a huge improvement over DG.

    I believe this as well but I'm not going any further than cautiously optimistic.  I would be more optimistic if Lindy had brought in 1 or 2 of his own people as assistants, whoever his own people might be. 

    I can totally get why Lindy would want his last coaching job to be back in Buffalo, and he'd obviously want to end on a high note (whenever that end is) and retire a happy Buffalo Sabre. I just hope he still gets to assert himself and they listen to him and get him players he needs, rather than them expecting him to be the listener. 

    If Tuch is named captain my optimism will increase. If it's Dahlin not so much. 

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  16. 1 hour ago, Claude Balls said:

    And they're also one of the mosted hated teams in the NHL. The only reason they show well is because they're an original 6 team. Same goes for Detroit, Chicago, Montreal, Toronto and the Rangers. People had very few choices. Rangers fans are close to outnumbering Canes fans in Carolina. 

    I don't think so. The original 6 has impact compared to newer teams but I don't see many Detroit, Chicago or Rags jerseys either. Philly has some fans around here for god knows what reason and the Canadian vs. USA thing is real so there's some Calgary and Edmonton as well as the sea of Canucks.

    A few years back I was talking to a guy who owns a sports collectibles store here and he said Bruins stuff always sells. 

    Hated by many no doubt that's true but as was said earlier or in another thread, success leads to hate from other fan bases. 

    All I know is October to April I'm a Sabres fan but every year all I have left in May (and occasionally June) is the Bruins. That's the Sabres fault not the Bruins.

    25 minutes ago, SabresBillsFan said:

    Love it when D’Angelo was yelling at him, probably calling him 4th line garbage player. I don’t want to see any of our former Sabres win a cup with another organization. 

    Too late. 

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