mjd1001
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Posts posted by mjd1001
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1 hour ago, Archie Lee said:
I don't think Tampa is going anywhere soon, but I do think that once the slide hits they will vanish faster than the Bruins. The distinction I would make between them and the Bruins is that the Bruins have really limited the number of big contracts that they have; I think this has allowed the Bruins to have much better depth down their line-up. The Bruins currently have only 4 players with contracts higher than $6 million with Swayman possibly joining the group this offseason. Tampa has 8 players over $6 million and are still, reportedly, looking to keep Stamkos. The Bruins, to their credit, never seem to need players like Conor Sheary or Jonas Johansson to fill out their line-up. Of course, Tampa has two recent cup wins so they know what they are doing.
I agree, Tampa is good for now. Most of their key players are still in that 'peak age' before they hit a bit of a slide. Hedman? The number of minutes have to be adding up for him over his career, but this team is in or near their prime in most areas, and they do have some 'decent' youth mixed in.
Now, they will not have either a first round pick or a 2nd rounder until 2026. That will potentially hurt them 4-5 years down the road. Their prospect pool is empty of any talent that you could even consider anything but a potential fringe player. They have like NOTHING (Howard, a former 31st overall pick has a chance, but he seems more a small-ish tweener right now). Other than Howard, they have had a total of ONE top 50 pick in the past 6 drafts and that one they traded away.
But with the picks they traded away, they still have managed to keep the roster from being not 'too old'. Pittsburgh is rapidly aging out (Crosby will be 37 at the start of next season, Malkin 38, Letang 37, Karlsson 33, Rust 32, Smith 33). Tampa's key guys (Kucherov 30, Point 28, Hagel 25, Cirelli 26, Hedman 33, Sergachev 25), well, Tampa is in a lot better shape for the next year or two at least.
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8 hours ago, GoPuckYourself said:
I'd have Pegula do a full court press and fly that Jet for RHD Brett Pesce, I would deal Jokiharju with other pieces for a forward. Now you have:
Line 1- LHD Owen Power RHD Rasmus Dahlin
Line 2- LHD Bowen Byram RHD Brett Pesce
Line 3- LHD Mattias Samuelsson RHD Connor Clifton
Pretty solid defensive core with some ruggedness, skill etc.
I think reality might be a bit close to this, minus Pesce.
The top 4 here that are going to get the majority of the minutes will be Dahlin, Power, Bryam and Samuelsson. Clifton will be on the third pair with 'whoever'. And, I'm OK with that.
In the 2nd half of the season when the forwards 'started' to play better in their own end, the D looked a LOT better. Plus they are still young, they should still be getting better. I'm not all that upset with status quo on the D, as long as some changes are made to lines 2/3 up front.
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On 5/21/2024 at 8:10 PM, JoeSchmoe said:
22-23 he was blowing by people all the time. I think it was the best part of his game... He had speed and power.
This year he'd always pull up and wait for help. I think this is the biggest reason for his regression. Not sure if it was coaching, confidence, injury, or what.
He may have been playing a slightly different style, but (statistically) his drop in production came down to simple shooting percentage especially from right in front of the net/high danger area. 2 years ago he converted at a very high rate, this year was closer to his average.
-Cozens 31 goal season, he shot overall 14.7%, every other season: 9.0% (this year), 8.1% and 6.5%.
-His shots on goal this year compared to last are very close, 211 to 200 (seeing he played 2 less games this year, almost identical in terms of shots per game)
Its not that he wasn't getting to the high danger spots, or playing a much slower game, he simply wasn't converting. In the high danger areas (The area within 29 feet of the center of the goal and bound on both sides by an imaginary line drawn from the faceoff dot to 2 feet outside the goalpost):
-2 years ago Cozens had 68 shots, scored 13 times, and had a 19.1% shooting percentage.
-This year he had 54 shots, only scored 5 goals, a 9.3% shooting percentage.
Most all of his 'missing production' wasn't due to less shots, wasn't due much to shooting from different areas, wasn't due to not skating as hard, wasn't due to less offensive zone time. He (pretty much) had the same shots, from the same area, had the same top skating speed, similar 'top skating speed bursts'...all within a very small percentage.
The spider charts say all of those were 'about' the same. The single thing that was different about his game that you can see 'statistically' was WHEN he had those 'high danger chances, he converted at less than half the rate, and had 8 less goals from that area.
Now, I can't tell you if those shots in the 'high danger area' were any more contested than they were last year or not. The stats available don't show that. But in terms of how many shots he gets off (about 200 per year), where he shoots from, a few years of stats show Cozens is who he is....the one thing that will determine his production will be his shooting percentage. Is he going to be close to the 14.7% guy we saw 2 years ago? or is he closer to the shooting 8.3% guy he has been the rest of his career (even factoring in this past season in that number)?
Maybe its a confidence thing. He was great in the IIHF 2 years ago and carried that into the regular season with a great regular season. Last year he didn't play and didn't have a great season here. This year, maybe he comes out of it super confident and it carries over to this year.
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1 hour ago, Sabres73 said:
Canada/Czech highlights https://www.tsn.ca/hockey-canada/dylan-cozens-scores-second-of-game-in-ot-as-canada-outlasts-czechia-at-hockey-worlds-1.2123766
Cozens leads the tournament in scoring now with 8.
Cozens does well in this tournament. I don't think he played last year, but in 2022 I know he tied for the lead in goal scoring in the tournament.
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1 hour ago, stinky finger said:
Swayman's performance was so good that it typically carries a team to a series victory. The fact that it didn't, speaks volumes. It tells me the rest of the team is less than worthy of cup consideration.
I thought the difference for Boston was Pastrnak. Guy is elite. Over the last 7 seasons, 5th in the league in goals, 6th in points, he shoots close to 15%, and over that time scores at almost a 50 goal per 82 pace with last year over 60 goals.
He was a relative non-factor in the playoffs this year.
Before this year he was over a point per game player in the playoffs, and had 35 goals in 77 career playoff games (over a 37 goal pace). This year, 4 goals and 8 points in 13 games (25 goal, 50 point pace). Not AWFUL, but for sure a lot less than they needed. Also, I don't know if anyone else noticed, but when you watched him he seemed a non-factor, even against the leafs. I never got a sense he was dangerous, on the verge of anything big.
I, too, wonder if he was injured. The non-productive playoffs came on the heels of a regular season where he had no goals in his last 5 games, and only 3 in his last 12 games in the regular season.
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2 hours ago, SabreFinn said:
He signed his new contract on March 2nd. That might have something to do with it.
William Nylander Signs 8 year, $92m extension Jan 8.
-Before Extension: 37gp, 21g, 33a (47 goal, 73 assist, 120 point pace/82)
-After signing: 49gp, 22g, 25a (37 goal, 41assist, 78 point pace/82)
Pettersson Signs 8 year, $92.8m extension.
-Before Extension: 62gp, 29g, 42a (29 goal, 56 assist, 85 point pace/82)
-After signing: 33gp, 6g, 14a (15 goal, 35 assist, 50 point pace/82)
There could be other factors, but it does kinda look at least a little like 'getting their money' had an impact on their play.
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I'll watch the conference finals, and there have been some good games this year, but the playoffs haven't been as exciting as I thought. When they started I was thinking...I'm going to LOVE this, there were so many good matchups. And there were/are, just I haven't gotten into the playoffs as deeply as I though.
And as far as Vancouver goes, Pettersson was a letdown. I really thought going into this year he was going to take another step and clearly become a top-10 player in the year, but he faded big time down the stretch and, as others have said, didn't help much in the playoffs.
Something happened to him in mid February..an injury? Hit 'the wall'. I'm not sure but...
Pettersson:
-through Feb 15: 28 goals, 44 assists in 55 games (42g, 66a, 108 point pace/82)
-Since Feb 16 (including playoffs): 7 goals, 16 assists in 40 games (14g, 33a, 47 point pace/82)
That is a major, MAJOR drop in production.
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On 5/16/2024 at 11:26 AM, Pimlach said:
100%.
Contrast to Boston, who's team got booed after one lax home game. Montgomery said the fans are right and that they are smart and know what's going on.
Marchand shrugged and said if we play better they will cheer.
Even fans in Buffalo and several here at SabreSpace dismissed this as a nothing because the fans salute is "stupid". Maybe it is, but the players and coaches reaction was the exact opposite of what it should have been.
I know people can't stand Marchand and Boston....but to think as fan how great it must have been to watch a team with Bergeron and Marchand on it, through their prime, for the greater part of a decade (lets not forget Chara through some of that time) Only 1 cup for them, but aren't those the type of players that almost EVERY fanbase says they want but never really get?
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Carolilna is just a somewhat better version or Toronto...if you are a fan of that organization you have to be frustrated and wonder what else you can do
-3rd most wins in the league since Brindamour took over
-3 seasons in a row with 110+ points (would have been 4 if you project out the previous shortened season). Their last 4 years were better statistically (in some cases much better) than even the 2005-06-07 Sabres teams.
Sure, a lot more fun and Sabres fans would trade their success for ours recently, but you have to wonder...the Hurricanes are still young but what else can they do to get to the cup? The 3rd most successful team in the league (2nd in the conference to Boston, Had Boston's regular seasons stats not been so inflated by last season, Carolina would be above them).
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Landscaping people/companies.
We live in a community where a landscaping crew comes in and cuts the lawns and trims. When they trim they often scalp so low they kill the grass, and when they cut the lawn they drive so fast that when they make a turn, they dig the grass right out of the lawn and leave marks or entire bare spots.
The good news is our community isn't that strict, a few of us have 'opted out' of the service, and we cut my own lawns now. (we have close to 1/2 an acre, so not enough for a riding mower but by hand it takes close to an hour..but I have time, I don't mind it). The Landscaping company is also fine with it, they said simply submit a list of homes for them not to touch and they will abide by it.
My complaint is this:
-I submitted officially to the community to have me taken off the list of lawns to be cut and it was confirmed.
-When they started cutting the lawns a few weeks ago the guy who owns/runs the company showed up and I reminded him.
-When the workers that trim came by, they saw me and asked if I was getting the lawn cut, and I told them, no, our house is on the list to be skipped.
-I cut the lawn 2 days ago so it is OBVIOUS our lawn is shorter than both of our neighbors already.
Yet 20 minutes after confirming to that guy on site AGAIN that we are to be skipped...., the guy on the mower is not only driving through the backyard cutting it, but there is another guy trimming and making a mess of everything he touches.
It should not be this hard to get a company and its employees to actually do the most basic, simple things in their job.
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To me its done by hopefully the top guys staying healthier and a better Power Play.
-A healthy Tage (and him on a slightly better PP) gets you close to 50 (maybe more if everything goes right, 20 more)
-Tuch COULD give you anywhere from 5-10 more than this past year.
-Cozens hopefully can get back to 25 (5-10 more)
-Peterka has a chance or progressing and giving you a handful more (another 2-5 more)
-You get 10 more (give or take) more from a healthy Quinn.
-5 more from Benson
-The D-corp gives you 5-10 more than this past year.
Of course if all that did happen it needs to offset (in my opinion)
-5, maybe 10 less from Skinner. (I think he is about to hit that 'over 30 year old' wall, hope I'm wrong)
-No Mitts (assuming his replacement is less productive)
-Dahlin might give you more points, but less goals.
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With Okposo, I 'liked' him as a person and 'kinda' as a player, but he was drastically overpayed. As far as leadership, He's respected as a person, he knows how to treat teammates well, but that is about it.
In 2021-22 and 22-23, his play was better (on the ice) than many on here were saying (although still not worth his contract), but the last year it fell of dramatically (I'm not talking about just production, I'm talking ability to win battles, ability to keep up with the play, etc.)
But the biggest issue with is game, that I never really thought of until this past year, is that he was given credit for being a leader, a 'vet' who knows how to play the game especially in a defensive responsible way, but I don't think that is true. Zemgus I think is a good 4th liner, he skates hard, hes fast, he battles hard on the boards and wins those battles, he plays positionally well.... but Okposo never really was any of that. Many said he was a good 4th liner simply because he was 'experienced' and could put in a few goals from there. but he didn't fit the role at all.
In his own end, knowing how to pick up the right guy, playing positionally, I think he was actually bad. We tend to think as a 'veteran' he knows how to do that, but I don't think he ever learned that part of the game. When he was with the Islanders, they weren't the 'lock down' Islanders they are now, he didn't learn or play that game when he was younger there. And of course, I don't think he picked up on much of it under any coach with the Sabres.
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I do think that Pegula gives orders from on high and a big push for 'promoting from within' or 'what he is comfortable with' is one of the biggest long term problems with this organization. So many other things that are problem stem from it. With that said, Appert as one of the assistants? I'm OK with it. We'll see how it goes obviously, but I am not going to hate on a move and say it simply is a bad decision because of 'how' it is perceived to have been done.
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1 hour ago, Warriorspikes51 said:
Tage, Cozens, 11th pick and two good prospects
Too much ?
Too much, because you have to take dollars/cap into consideration.
In Thompson you get a guy that over the last 2 years scores goals at a 41 goal pace per 82. He is signed long term for $7.1m per year
In Matthews you get a guy who over the last 2 years scores 57 goals per 82. He is signed long term for $13.2m per year (close to double tage)
Matthews is clearly the better/more productive player, there isn't much doubt to that. But in a cap league where when you start to compete you are close to that cap, I'm not sure I'd even want that trade with even a little beyond just Tage when you consider the money, and what that extra $6+ million can do for you when you get to that point.
I personally think Tage was playing injured this year and next year I think he is back to being a 50 goal scorer, or very close to it. I also think Matthews is getting 60 or more again.
I CERTAINLY would not want to make that trade and throw in Cozens. And the 11th pick this year. And 2 additional good prospects. Not even close. (Also keep in mind Matthews does not elevate his play in the playoffs, he is actually LESS productive in the playoffs than the regular season, and there is 8 years of sample size showing that)
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Apple's website.
Its been like this for years, but if I go there to look at a product and use the mouse wheel to scroll down, that means I saw what I wanted to see and want to, you know, SCROLL DOWN. Yet half the time when you try to scroll down their product page, you actually do scroll down..the other half the time it takes their pictures/animations and, well, animated them, and you have to scroll and scroll and spin that mouse wheel 5 times as much as you should have to just to get to the next part of the page lower.
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31 minutes ago, JoeSchmoe said:
My 16 year old put it perfectly.
While watching the games so far this postseason, he said playoff hockey is almost like a different sport than regular season hockey. If teams could play with that intensity all season, they would barely lose.
Matthews playoff mode is no different than his regular season mode. When everyone else goes up a level, he's still the same guy.
Hard pass.
When looking at his 'relative' underperformance compared to other stars in the league (hes not BAD in the playoffs, he just doesn't elevate), and seeing this over 8 years now.....what you said seems to be the most likely answer.
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Matthews is a better player than Marner, but I'd rather have Marner 'for less' than Matthews for more money and more of a return.
Matthews makes this Sabres team better for sure, even with a big haul going back to TO. A problem I have with him is he doesn't seem like he is a 'likeable' superstar. I get the sense even from Toronto fans...he's a league MVP, multiple time goal scoring leader, former first overall pick, has made the playoffs just about every year he has been in the league, he's nominated for best defensive forward.....you would think he would be the most popular and most liked player in Toronto sports by a factor of 5....yet for as many people that like him in TO, I get the sense there are a lot that don't. He just doesn't have a connection to the fanbase. I put that more on him and less on the fanbase in Toronto.
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Here is a thought for why you DON'T trade the pick. You trade one or two of your other former first round picks and keep this one...why? The age of the pipeline.
The guy you draft this year is going to what, 17 or 18? You have Östlund, Kulich, Rosen, and Savoie that are all 20-21 years old...why trade the pick for a guy of that 'talent level' who is 17 but keep all your 20-21 year olds? If it is a choice between the 2, I'd rather move one of the 20-21 year olds...and keep 1 or 2....and also keep the 17 year old...rather than move the 17-18 year old and keep all the 21 year olds. Space things out. You have an excess of prospects that are 20-21...I'd rather move one (or two) of them and keep the 17 year old so if or whenever this team gets good, I have him just about ready to move up to the roster when the core of my team is starting to age.
Again, I know you can trade this pick AND a prospect...but I'm saying if you are moving 1 or 2 pieces and that is it, I'd rather move the 20-21 year olds (because you have 3-4 of them)
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Its going to be hard to say they should or shouldn't trade the pick because we don't know (and maybe never will) know what the offer is for it. There might be a great offer, there might be garbage. Its hard to say "trade the pick because they need help now, not in a few years" when you don't know the return. This is where you need trust in your GM. Yeah, a lot of people don't, but he is going to be the one that knows what offers you can get for it, and he is the one that will make the decision.
If you are shopping it and getting 'subpar' offers in your opinion, then you keep it, you make the pick, you develop the player, and then there is nothing saying you can't trade that 'prospect' (or any other first round pick) anytime after.
The thing those who want the pick traded might have going for them is Lindy Ruff, and the hope he has roster input. I'm pretty sure he would rather have a player that can help him NOW than invest in one that MIGHT help in 3-4 years from now.
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4 hours ago, CallawaySabres said:
Bruins will be around forever, just accept it. I want a Boston New York series very badly.
Could be looking at one in the NHL and the NBA at about the same time.
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2 hours ago, JoeSchmoe said:
And another thing... There's no shortage of players around the league that hate Toronto as much as some of us do. It's a real thing... Join the team!
https://torontosun.com/2014/07/01/josh-gorges-trade-the-ultimate-insult-to-maple-leafs
PS- this Toronto sportswriter called Buffalo the "armpit" of America. As someone who lives about halfway between the two I can confirm the body odour is not coming from the Queen City, but rather from the other side.
We live in northern Niagara county, right near Lake Ontario. You can see downtown Toronto clearly across the lake, and even coming down the hill Toward Lewiston it is clearly visible. Crystal clear high def hockey night in canada broadcasts with an antenna, no problem getting 590 sports talk out of Toronto...etc.
Now I'm not saying Toronto is a worse city than Buffalo..it is many times Bigger, tons of money, etc. But we took a trip to Toronto last weekend, and wow, my wife said she had enough and doesn't want to go back for a long time. Getting around is a nightmare. Downtown is a disaster, on the weekend (not weekday rush hour) we sat and sat and inched up on Lakeshore Blvd just trying to get anywhere near downtown. A bit farther outside the city...you can deal with some traffic on 407 if you want to pay something like $40+ in tolls for a trip across the city. The 401? Mid day (not rush hour), no accidents, yet it was stop and go for MILES, and when you were going it was 20mph (worse than any memories I had of driving on the Cross Bronx expressway). And go to their 'fast' growing areas like Markham and Vaughan (we spent most of our time near in Vaughan or downtown) and you get terrible surface road traffic, and its just strip plaza after strip plaza..then a few big gray warehouses to break up the strip plazas, and then a lot of parking lots and 'floor tile' warehouse/showrooms.
Again, I'm not trying to bash Toronto, but my wife grew up in NY city and still visits friends/relatives there, and this trip to Toronto (and the outer parts of the city)...lets just say she doesn't have a high regard to her former home in NY city anymore, but what we saw of 'day to day' living in the GTA I think is even a bit lower.
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5 hours ago, Pimlach said:
This all sound like petty BS. UPL had not earned a thing up until late January' 24, and neither did Levi for that matter. None of this should impact contract negotiations unless Adams lets it.
I did hear grumblings that last season some players were upset that Levi was plugged in for those late season games, and UPL was out.
Is this team cliquey or what?
UPL, from Jan 1 through the end of the year, was: 20w and 16L, a .919 save percentage and 2.31 GAA. That alone would not impact how much I pay him.
UPL, from the start of the season through Jan 1 was: 7w 10L, an .892 save percentage and 3.13 GAA. That alone would not impact how much I pay him.
His entire season, he was 27w, 26L, .910 save perentage and 2.31 gaa. THOSE are the numbers I would use to evaluate him because it includes EVERYTHING he did.
(If anything, I MIGHT slightly skew toward the end of the season, as if there was any 'development' that is when it would show...but still, don't cherry pick. He is who he was the entire season)
His entire season, the good, and the bad, should impact negotiations. That was .910 and 2.31...for a single (most recent) season in his career.
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3 hours ago, Sabres Fan in NS said:
I never understood why fans of one team should take joy in another teams failure, especially Sabre fans in recent / current years.
Something, something ... glass houses ... something, something ... throwing stones ...
I take no joy in the dastardly Flyers missing the playoff this season. Why should I ?
I cheer for the Sabres to win not for the others to lose. Who cares about the others ?
Also, has the Jersey cheering not been debunked ? I don't see anyone doing that in America. I do understand Palestinians celebrating in East Jerusalem and Gaza and The West Bank and in other places. They would do the same today. I don't think if 911 happend today that the masses that are domonstrating now in the States would cheer it.
I think it has a lot to do with how fanbases treat each other. All you need is ONE guy (and we all know there is usually more than one guy) to act like a jerk for no reason, to start trolling on another fanbase or city (Why would he sign there, no-one wants to LIVE in a dump like Buffalo!). That stuff causes a few people from the target city/team to shoot back at the original...then more come to their defense...it escalates....and presto! You end up WANTING the original jerk's team (and those who joined in his side of the trolling) to be miserable and never win.
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Matthews is a great player, but he just doesn't show up and carry his team in the playoffs. This year he was injured or sick, but he now has over 50 playoff games and years of it being the same. When you are going to be the highest paid player in the league, an MVP, a multiple time goal scoring champ, you need to pick things up in the playoffs.
Since they have been in the league:
McDavid: +6% more in the playoffs
Draisaitl: +36% more in the playoffs
McKinnon: +16.6% more in the playoffs
Matthews: -24% LESS points per game in the playoffs
Sample size over 50 games now for everyone...over 80 for McKinnonThere have been too many playoff games where just ONE goal would have given the Leafs a win and maybe/probably a series win. One of these years he's going to have to elevate in the playoffs.
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3C - What is best course going forward?
in The Aud Club
Posted
I agree with most of what you said.
When Krebs arrived here I was down on him more than most on this board, but now I think many have swung WAY too far the other direction, basically saying he is borderline useless and a bust. He MAY be, but its still too early in my opinion to judge that. He may turn into a pretty good player but it could happen this year, or it could happen in 2-3 years from now. But, as you said, I want to give him a chance here, but don't want to COUNT on him. If you bring someone else in for that role, that other person plays there. IF Krebs takes a huge leap forward, then sure you can slot Krebs into that slot, but I don't want that to be THE plan.