mjd1001
-
Posts
6,043 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
Forums
Events
Posts posted by mjd1001
-
-
I'd love Marner, but ..
I guess you have to make the call but I don't think you're getting him here without paying him and exorbitant amount of money. That will hurt your roster in many other spots.
More importantly, you're going to get close to peak play from him for maybe 2 or 3 more years. Is this team going to contend for a cup then?
I don't think so. Yes we all want them to make the playoffs but I don't want to mortgage 5 years down the road from now just to make the playoffs and get bounced in the first or second round. If you could get him at the same rate as any other team then sure, but you don't overpay for a contract that will be bad a few years down the road.
-
1 hour ago, Brawndo said:
I love the Tavares deal for Toronto. This one I'm not so sure on.
Is there a chance Knies will be really, REALLY good? I guess. But over the playoffs, over the last season, the year before basically his entire career, I think he is a product of Matthews.
His numbers are worthy of close to $8m when playing with Matthews, if you look at his numbers, his production, his underlying metrics/analytics with not on the ice with Matthews, they are actually below average. Like he's kinda a bad player across the board without Matthews on the ice with him.
I linked and posted his metrics with and without Mathews below (reg season and playoffs), but if you look at last year, they numbers are just as bad as this year.
-
1
-
-
31 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:
The "reshaping" of this team started with the Cozens trade.
1) Cozens (C/RW) out - Norris (C) and JBD (RHD) in
2) Jokiharju (LHD) out - 4th rd pick (2026) in
3) JJP (R/LW) out - Kesselring (RHD) and Doan (RW) in
4) Clifton (RHD) out - Timmins (RHD) in
5) Signed Quinn to a 2 year extension.
Short answer, they are about the same, I think if there are no major injuries, slightly better....but that is only if there are no major injuries...and slightly is not good enough to make a major jump in the standings.
1.) Cozens/Norris. If Norris is healthy, this make the team better. The advanced stats, the simple stats, watching the games....all of those things pointed to Cozens hurting the team more than (or at least as much as) he helped.
2.) I liked Jokiharju, I think he was better than most people thought, but at BEST he was a serviceable mid-pair guy. Losing him not a huge factor.
3.) No clue. I think Peterka caused almost as many problems as he solved with his goals, but the key word there is 'almost'. While I think Cozens was a net negative player, Peterka was still an overall positive. He will be a loss, but hopefully the return will negate that loss.
4.) Clifton for Timmins? Not a big deal either way.
5.) Quinn. If he played like he did the last 1.5 years, I don't want him on the team. I guess the hope is he turns his bad play around (his own end and unwillingness to go to the net).
More needs to be done. It'll be easier to have an answer to this question when we know if Byrum re-signs or what the return for him is...and we know more about the quality of goaltending they will get.
This team had problem last year, but in my opinion the problems were in this order. 1.) How bad the goaltending was 2.) How bad Cozens and Quinn were without the puck 3.) D-partners/pairings that didn't look in sync with each other.
#1 is still a wide open question. #2 has partially been solved, but not totall. #3, well, they are making an attempt, but we have no idea until October (or later) how successful their attempt is.
-
1
-
-
22 minutes ago, JohnC said:
Tantrums are ubiquitous. They spill over all the threads.
With respect to adding Timmins and dispatching Clifton, if this is more of a financial than a personnel transaction, I will be furious. I can't comment on what this trade does for the team because I'm not familiar with this player. What I'm expecting is another deal or two that will upgrade the roster. If there isn't much of a follow up by the GM, then I will place the blame on the owner.
I know, they do.
And I get it, this is a place for fans to vent. I have in the past defended people saying whatever they want, that is what message boards are for.
Its just, I don't want to block people, I want to be exposed to all conversations, but when I have an hour to spare and read through various recent posts, it gets tiresome seeing the same people posting about how bad Adams is in the thread about Adams. Posting about how bad Adams is in a thread about a trade. Posting about how bad Adams is in a thread about the draft. Posting about how bad Adams is....you get the point.
I get it, people don't like him, but the complaints about him in threads...especially when the post has nothing to do with the topic....for me at least it gets overbearing.
-
1 minute ago, oddoublee said:
I think we can all agree the roster construction was poor. These moves help them move in the right direction to alleviate that. All of that said....they NEED a top 6 f or c before mid July....and a decent goalie add.
I'm just going to enjoy seeing how this plays out over the next week. This is a fun time of year.
Agree. While I do like watching the games, for me the 'building of the team' is almost as fun, sometimes more fun than the games themselves.
There are race car drivers, and their are mechanics that build the race care. More often I find myself a bit more interested in watching the car get built and learning how its built than always watching the guy drive it in circles for 3 hours.
-
1
-
-
Upon further looking at NHL edge, other analytics numbers, his basic numbers, some highlights posted here, some discussion on the leafs board, some discussion here, and most importantly (for me), me remembering talk about him or watching him with Toronto, my summary of all that regarding Timmins is (and of course I could be totally wrong):
-Good skater but very slow (kinda like Jeff Skinner but slower)
-Decent size but not an overly physical player, but can use his size for positioning.
-Decent accuracy to his shot but not hard shot at all.
-Doesn't like to carry the puck. He'll get it passed to him and move it quickly by passing it up to a forward.
-Pretty good decision maker in the offensive zone. He knows his limitations and will get the puck to players in better position.
Overall, not high on the raw skills, not an aggressive player physically, not aggressive in the offensive zone, or the defensive zone, but willing to play his position and the role asked of him.
-
1
-
-
8 minutes ago, Turbo44 said:
Good find. Karlsson is terrible defensively, so this could be a good thing. If Byram is traded and nobody else added, first, yikes, 2nd, I guess you play Dahlin and Power with Sammy and the two new RHD's and see what clicks.
A lot of his numbers, with Pittsburgh of all teams, were much better when he played with someone OTHER than Karlsson:
Corsi for %: With Karlsson 54.9 With anyone else as his partner: 61.1 (those are both really good numbers, anything about 50 is 'positive'
Fenwick: With Karlsson 51.3 With anyone else: 59.7
Shots for/against: With Karlsson 52.5 With anyone else: 59.6
Goals for/Against: With Karlsson 30 With anyone else: 78.6 (really, really good number)
expected goals: With Karlsson 50.5 With anyone else: 62.1
High Danger chances: With Karlsson 45 With anyone else: 61.3
High danger goals: With Karlsson 28.5 With anyone else: 66.6
So, that is only from last year in his short time with Pittsburgh, and that is with limited minutes. But in the time he played with and without Karlsson, he not only did better without Karlsson, he was really really good.
I haven't had a chance to do a deep dive into his numbers with Toronto for the rest of the year, but at quick glance, they are "OK" (everything is near 50, slightly above or slightly below, but not bad)
-
Ok, next to the Sabres I probably follow the Leafs the most of any time. Listen to a LOT Of 590 out of Toronto (seeing how I can't stand WGR and Mike Schopp and live in Northern Niagara county so I get the Canadian stations in pretty clearly.) So I'm trying to think of what I remember about Timmins game...
Now the stats might prove my impression totally wrong, but what I THINK I remember about him is he was a decent skater but not fast at all, and he doesn't like to carry the puck. He would be a guy on a breakout that once he got the puck, he never took more than a stride or two with it, he would almost immediately pass it to someone else. Was not a 'full motor' guy, but more of a guy that paced himself, conserved energy on the ice and maybe took a slightly longer shift because of it.
Of course, he was not one of the main guys in Toronto, so my memory and attention to him wasn't all that great.
All this talk and effort acquiring a RHD...I personally never thought Jokiharju was all that bad and I'm not sure how much better these guys are than he was.
-
1
-
-
Any chance that Timmins is the guy who ends up skating most of the time with Power?
-
1
-
-
1 hour ago, SabresBillsFan said:
No, Adams is ***** terrible and Pegula is too much of a fan boy. He’s the Jerry Jones of hockey who is in way over his head. Hire a proven GM and move Lindy Ruff upstairs!
This thread regarding this trade is not really the place for this tantrum.
-
So, was Timmins a guy who would 'want to be here', from St. Catherines so he's 'coming home' and maybe grew up a Sabres fan?
-
I think I was one of the few people on here who liked Clifton's game. However, I always got the impression he regretted signing in Buffalo big time.
-
14 hours ago, BigAl2526 said:
Quinn was the Sabres' first round pick in 2021, 8th overall. The position he plays is different, but are we to expect a comparable level of play from Mrtka in 4 years?
If you go back and look at D-men picked from 6-12 overall and see how long they developed:
2015: Provorov (played full season in 2016-2017) and Werenski (Played full season in 2016-17)
2016: Sergachev (played a full season in 2017-18)
2017: No D-men picked in that range (Makar was taken 4th overall)
2018: Quinn Hughes (played full season in 2019-20), Adam Boquist (has yet to play full season), Evan Bouchard (played full season 2021-22), Noah Dobson (played full season 2021-22)
2019: Seider (full season 2021-22), Broberg (full season, almost, last year), Soderstromm (no full season yet)
2020: Drysdale (full season 2021-22)
2021: Edvinsson (full season last year, 2024-25), Clarke (full season 2024-25)
2022: Jiricek (no full season yet), Korchiniski (full season 2023-24), Mintyukov (full season 2023-24), Mateychuk (no full season yet)
I didn't want to look back at the last 2 drafts, it might be early for them yet.
So, it looks like the farther back you go, the more likely a D-man was to play right away. In recent drafts, they seem to take longer.
But of all the D-men listed above: 7 of them played a full season the year after they were drafted. 1 took 2 seasons after their draft year. 4 of them took 3 seasons after their draft year. 5 of them took longer than 3 full seasons or have yet to play a full season for the team that drafted them.
-
3
-
1
-
-
1 hour ago, Turbo44 said:
I thought he’d get 6x6. Maybe this makes it harder for them to sign ekblad?
Probably, but I think they have have already decided Jones over Ekblad.
After all, they won the Cup 2 years in a row. 98 points this year, 110 last year in the regular season....while Ekblad missed 25 games this year and over 30 last year, and I think he missed some playoff games early this year too?
-
4 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:
The pp problem is strategy not players. At least imo.
When you watch replays of PP goals, a lot of them (I'd say close to half) are a version of "puck luck" Deflections, bounces, a loose puck in the crease that someone whacks away at until it goes in. It was only one Saturday night early in the season, but I watched the replays of every single PP goal and the majority of them were 'dirty goals'.
So, is it coaching that tells the players to not get to the front of the net? Maybe. Or is it players refusing to go to the front of the net and instead want the pretty pass or the pretty one timer? It could be that too. As I mentioned above, Quinn refused to go to the front of the net last year for some reason.
-
9 minutes ago, dudacek said:
I know your views on Norris, but that was definitely made with the PP as part of the equation.
Last year aside, Quinn has generally been very good on the PP too.
Honestly, I think the biggest issue is the coaching.
Other than last year, Quinn has never scored more than a single goal on the PP in an entire season.
In terms of goals per 60 on the PP, he's been pretty much the worst forward on the team of anyone that gets significant time on the PP. He is right about 1 goal per 60 PP, Zucker and Tage are over 3, Okposo and VO were over 2, Skinner right near 2, Peterka at 1.3, Tuch at 1.1, even Greenway was a few percentage points ahead of Quinn.
One area he NEEDs to get better at is on the PP, and going to the front of the net might help (an area he was allergic to or just afraid to go to last year) For comparison sake, the 'high danger' area of the ice (right in front of the crease), Alex Tuch had 65 shot on net from that area. Quinn had 10. Tuch averaged not too far from one per game. Quinn got one every 2 weeks.
I WANT Quinn to be better, and I'm hoping he had some lingering injury issues last year. But he might have been the single worst forward on the team last year.
-
11 minutes ago, JohnC said:
You are astute and perspicacious.
The fact that rain, snow, or sleet is falling from the sky has nothing to do with it!
-
1
-
2
-
-
Just now, GASabresIUFAN said:
It looks like the forward plan right now is to hope a mix of Norris, Benson, Quinn and Kulich replace Peterka’s production.
While I hate the JJP trade in general even I will admit that the idea that it is possible for those four if the stay healthy and if the younger guys continue to improve for the offense to overcome the loss of Peterka. That said it’s a typical hope and pray from Adams especially given Quinn and Norris’ injury histories.
This looks on paper like another attempt Moneypuck.
In terms of goals, it might be easy to look at/justify that you need Norris to replace the goals provided by Peterka (do-able), and whatever winger takes his position just needs to replace Cozen's goals. Peterka and Cozens gave you about 40-45 goals (per full season) the last 2 years combined. Can you get that out of Norris and 'someone else', maybe, probabaly.
-
1
-
-
52 minutes ago, Mr Peabody said:
If Byram gets traded don’t we revert to needing a top 4 D man again? Unless we get an offer that knocks our socks off there’s no need to trade him.
I think the logic is that almost anyone playing with Dahlin will do well, he doesn't need a high-end partner.
Connor Clifton, Jokiharju, even Ryan Johnson all had many metrics (Fenwick, Corsi, Shots for, Scoring chances, High danger chances), in the positive territory (above 50%) when paired with Dahlin the last 2 years. Of course you don't want to put him with a borderline 6/7 Dman all the time, but I think they believe a partner for Dahlin is not someone they need to overspend on.
Other than him having a good cup run with Colorado and having a high pedigree (draft status), is there really anything we have seen from Bryam that shows us he is really good and actually a top pair guy?
-His metrics WITH Dahlin aren't much better than some of the above mentioned players.
-His metrics/analytics WITHOUT Dahlin on the Sabres are pretty bad (most well below 50%)
-When I watch him play with my own eyes, I don't see someone who is particularly anything better than 'slightly below average' in his own zone.
-Offensively he LOOKS to have skills, but he played a full 82 game season and had a lot of ice time and still got in the single digits in goals.
He has raw talent, and he's young, but i'm not quite sure his overall game is even what you could consider simply above average.
-
19 minutes ago, Brawndo said:
Evolving Hockey nailed this contract projection
A skeptic of Adams and the front office would say that the Sabres FO had no idea what he was worth so they started looking to the analytics sites to give them the number to offer him.
-
Well, lets see how he performs.
My opinion on Quinn was always that next to Cozens, he was the single player on this team that hurt the team the most (much more than he helpled).
I'm hoping if he comes in and still plays the same (bad) game as the last year or two, they won't keep sticking him out there because of the new contract. The dollar number isn't going to prevent them from doing other things, so its OK that way, I just don't want them throwing him out there if he continues to hurt more than he helps.
-
2
-
-
4 hours ago, Brawndo said:
Tavares signs a 4 year 4.38 Million Dollar AAV extension with Toronto
That is a really good deal for Toronto.
He had 38 goals in just 75 games. He would have gotten 40+ if he played the full 82. He's getting older, but $4.38m for a guy who just scored almost 40?
The key thing for the Leafs is you are getting the same guy back (one year older but likely almost the same guy) but he just took about a $7m pay cut.
So, Toronto gets the same guy, but now has an extra $7m per year to work with?
In 3-4 years the contract may be bad..but then again, $4.38m? Even if he drops off a cliff its not a bad contract.
This is very very good for Toronto.
When, if ever, was the last time a guy came off of a 38 goal season (again, 40+ if he played a full 82) and signed a contract for under 5% of the cap? Unreal bargain.
-
13 minutes ago, Thorny said:
We traded a point a game winger for depth pieces, the reaction is overwhelmingly positive, and you STILL think we are selling the return short? Masterclass; potentially
Great, except Peterka has never been a point per game winger. Not over his career (0.63), not over last season (0.88), not the season before (0.61). The closest he got in one season was last year's 0.88, but if he plays 82 games over an 82 game season that still causes him to come up 10 short.
Now, will he BECOME a point per game winger on Utah? Maybe, Maybe not. But on the Sabres, he isn't, and never has been one....even last year with the most Powerplay ice time on the team among forwards and lots of time on the first line, 18+ minutes per game.
-
3
-
-
A lot of comments about wanting more for the trade...
Yeah, any trade you make you always want more. How often does a trade get made and if something else would have been thrown in we wouldn't have liked it?
But I think part of that comes down to Peterka having a bigger name, and having a better stat sheet. I'm not saying that he's not the better player of the trade... But sometimes when someone has a bigger name or a more impressive stat sheet, they're not always the better player.
Anyway, I'm trying to look at this positively but do I like to trade? Overall, Yeah. Why? Because it's likely a couple new players were going to have on the team we didn't have last year.
Short of winning... Or scoring a ton of goals... having new faces on the team and seeing how they integrate into the team gives me something to look forward to watching.
-
1
-
Summer 2025: NHL Offseason
in The Aud Club
Posted
Ekblad at $6.1m per year to stay in Florida is less than I expected.
I guess his injury history, or the fact they are giving him 8 years...maybe that makes up for it?