JohnRobertEichel
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Posts posted by JohnRobertEichel
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17 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:
Kirk Cousins, Minnesota Vikings. Ranked 4th in completion percentage.
Weather may impact it but to suggest that it's this all important factor is false. Flacco, Wilson, Rogers all have better completion % and play in crap weather.
Don't use weather as an excuse. Josh needs better receivers and too continue working on his footwork and ball placement. Also his reads are sometimes bad. Let's see if he keeps progressing.
I can and will and just did. Wind, cold temperatures, rain, and snow affect completion percentage. New Era Field is easily the windiest stadium in the NFL. Cousins and Wilson play in domes. Flacco is a 12-year vet with a mediocre completion percentage. Rodgers in Green Bay might be a good counterpoint, but he's also well-known as being among the very greatest precision passers to have ever played the game.
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On 12/23/2019 at 1:57 PM, tom webster said:
Hysterical. Team is 10-5, had the ball and were driving in four of the losses, three with Allen in the game but let’s focus on the second year quarterback’s limitations. Of course he has limitations, he’s a work in progress.
I notice how Allen's critics constantly obsess over his completion percentage, which is currently at the very bottom of the league at 58.8%. The obvious problems with this singular statistic:
1. The type of offensive system significantly affects completion percentage. Josh Allen in Daboll's Erhardt-Perkins system can't be expected to have the same completion percentage as a QB in, say, a spread offense.
2. Weather affects completion percentage. You can't realistically expect a Buffalo Bills QB to routinely achieve completion percentages like Drew Brees, who plays in a dome.
3. Dropped passes affect completion percentage. The Bills are currently at the top of the league in this stat. I don't care how hard Josh Allen may be throwing the ball. If the ball hits your hands and if you're getting paid millions to catch a ball, then hold on to the ball.
4. Footwork and throwing mechanics affect completion percentage. Allen still needs to work on this aspect of his game, but it's all very correctable with more time and effort. This isn't an innate skill.
My conclusion: take just 25 of Josh Allen's incompletions over the course of this 15-game season, convert them to completions, and then he's suddenly at the league median with 64.4%. He's already made a lot of progress since last year and since the beginning of this season. Find him a true #1 WR with a large catching radius, a power RB upgrade over Gore, maybe two new starters on the OL, and then sit back and enjoy the Super Bowl run next year.
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53 minutes ago, msw2112 said:
Freddy Krueger, Ralph Krueger - brothers?
MIND. BLOWN.
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8 hours ago, Kruppstahl said:
Tonight's a good night to call out Reinhart.
He's a floater who routinely plays way below his potential.
He cannot drive play and he lives and dies with the success of Jack. He should be moved, perhaps with other assets, for a group of assets in return.
And can someone tell me why BOGO is playing on this team?
He's f-ing terrible and doesn't want to be here.
I have no idea. Can you tell me why Sheary, Vesey, Rodrigues, and McCabe are on this team? The most likely answer may be: grossly incompetent GM.
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49 minutes ago, MakeSabresGrr8Again said:
It's the Hasek Syndrome....knowing that you'll never meet the standards here in WNY.
Yeah, that's not it.
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11 minutes ago, Mustache of God said:
JBOT, time to ***** or get fired from the pot. Do something to help this team.
I think he's been afraid to do anything ever since getting fleeced in the O'Reilly trade. If that's the case, then it's time to put him out of his misery for the good of the franchise. The next GM needs to be someone with proven experience.
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Will I see a PLAYOFF BERTH in my lifetime?! I'm in my thirties.
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15 minutes ago, Pimlach said:
I hate seeing Skinner with Erod and Sheary. A 40 goal scorer playing with 2 throw away players, ridiculous!
He should be playing with Johansson and Asplund
Skinner should be on the same line as Eichel. That was the whole reason for signing him to that gigantic contract.
Sheary, Vesey, and Rodrigues better be off this roster by May.
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10 hours ago, Randall Flagg said:
Also I'm pretty shocked that we're 20th in passing DVOA. I would have guessed like 29.
If we can snag a good receiver in the draft, maybe another solid option in UFA, replace Gore with someone capable, and have Allen give a fraction of the reps to the deep ball he did to the middle of the field this summer, for a fraction of the return on investment, along with typical development of a 2nd to 3rd year QB, This could be a top 12 passing offense as soon as next year. I'm not confident about WHERE Allen will ultimately settle, but I like what I see from him now more than what I saw from Mitch the bitch last year. And given our slate of draft picks (I read somewhere we had 9?) and 90 mil in cap space, we're set to have the offseason Chicago did BEFORE they got good, not the one they had after they filled up their cap space and regressed to this season.And of course always improve the OL
We're gonna need a CB too, K. Johnson is gone and Levi is questionable and there's no one behind himAnd of course always improve the OL
We're gonna need a CB too, K. Johnson is gone and Levi is questionable and there's no one behind himI think they're content with Wallace as the #2 CB. He did have a few bad games this season, but his overall two-season body of work has been excellent. As fans, we may tend to think he's worse than he really is simply because he doesn't look nearly as good as White. Having said that, Carolina's James Bradberry is a potential free agent #2 CB the Bills may very well target because they have the money to do so. Ahead of CB, my off-season wish list includes a #1 WR, a starting RT, a RB to replace Gore, a pass-rushing chess piece on the edge like Clowney, and an OLB to replace Alexander (in that order).
So it looks to me like the most probable path to the Super Bowl is:
Round 1: at Houston
Round 2: at Baltimore
Round 3: at KC (some might say at New England)
That's an extremely intimidating path. But it's worth noting that this will be the best road team the franchise has ever had if they win Saturday (7-1 road record to surpass the 1964 Bills' 6-1 record).
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18 minutes ago, That Aud Smell said:
This is fascinating.
Only to the subset of fans who have convinced themselves that the only way to win in the NFL is to have a passing offense that regularly surpasses 300 yards/game with a 70% completion percentage. I call them the "flag football" fans because that's what they want to see the entire league turn into. The rest of us who follow pro football know that a strong running game and a dominant defense will never go out of style. You'll find more of us in NFL cities on this list (https://weather.com/news/news/2019-09-12-nfl-worst-weather-cities).
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6 hours ago, jad1 said:
Eichel has 31 points the last 17 games. That's the only reason the team is hanging in. When he cools off, this team will sink to the bottom of the standings.
Truth. It's happening even while Eichel remains hot. Two points currently separate the #2 seed and the #6 seed in the Atlantic division, with the Sabres having played more games than the Florida teams near the bottom. But there are still fans out there that think the team has turned a corner and that our GM is doing a good job....unreal...
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I am willing to respect everyone's opinions here, but - like Hank posted above - I'm personally very happy with the way the Bills are being built:
1. An elite defense
2. A top-5 rushing offense.
3. $90+ million in cap space for 2020
4. A group of players who like each other, work hard at their profession, actually like the city of Buffalo, and have a bunch of unique personalities (see: White, Tre'Davious).
5. A constantly improving franchise-caliber QB who has already earned the respect of his teammates (and who, by the way, is currently tied with Russell Wilson for the league lead in both game-winning drives and 4th quarter comebacks...and is also 8th in rushing TD's, ahead of Lamar Jackson).
6. Perhaps most importantly: early results. 2 winning seasons already and 2 playoff appearances in 3 years.
There are many fans frustrated with the passing game and the conservative play-calling on offense. Fair enough. And I will join you in voicing these frustrations if this is still a problem next season. But remember: $90+ million in cap space, a 2020 draft loaded with #1 WR talent, and a starting QB so raw coming out of college that it was almost universally assumed he'd sit for two years before ever seeing the field as an NFL starter. In other words: have patience. A lot of the playcalling issues may simply have to do with the current talent limitations (Gore as a power back is done, no 6-4 clutch possession WR's on the roster, Allen still learning how to read blitz packages, no starting right tackle, etc..).
By the way, the criticism against McDermott and Co. for not drafting Mahomes, Watson, and Jackson is not entirely fair. McDermott has repeatedly stated that he wasn't comfortable making such a crucial franchise QB decision when he first got the job in early 2017 and was having to rely on Whaley's scouts. He was also anticipating the well-hyped 2018 QB class. Lamar Jackson is a unique case. He is probably a QB bust in any other offensive system other than the current one run by Roman and Harbaugh. Besides, a lot of other QB-needy teams passed on Mahomes, Watson, and Jackson. I'd wait another 2-3 full years anyway before assuming all 3 are definitively better than Allen.
Finally, I don't understand the love affair for the Chiefs model of building a team. They should have won a Super Bowl last year with that offense, but they didn't because of a defense that couldn't stop a nosebleed...not to mention their proven playoff choker for a head coach and a couple of star talents who like beating women (Hill, Hunt). I still believe there are multiple ways of building a Super Bowl-caliber roster built for long term success in the modern NFL, one of which includes the current Bills model of an elite defense coupled with a strong running game and a clutch QB. It's also the model that the Patriots, Ravens, and Steelers have been trying to implement in the AFC. The Chiefs and the Texans are doing it a different way. We'll see which has more success in the playoffs this year!
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2 minutes ago, ... said:
Wouldn't that have been darkly poetic. So, the Steelers had/has the number one defense? Does that fully explain how bad our offense looked? I know the talking heads were saying this was going to be a low scoring game, but let's hope whoever we take on in the playoffs has a far worse defense than they faced tonight.
I guess that seems all pessimistic. Sorry! Good win, nail-biter!
Top 5. They're elite. But that doesn't excuse Singletary's 2 fumbles, all the drops, and the ultra-conservative playcalling. Allen could have played better as well. This offense is still a year away from being really good.
Buffalo's D is Super-Bowl caliber right now. No doubt. They need to do a much better job on third quarter scripted opening drives, but otherwise I am comfortable calling them elite (in the Jack Eichel sense of the word).
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4 minutes ago, Doohickie said:
The Tank has damaged you.
It has, my friend. It certainly has.
But I have at least provided a specific benchmark by which I am willing to reverse my negative outlook: making the playoffs.
I also see a lot of this organization's fortune depending on the development of 4 specific players: Luukkonen, Dahlin, Mittelstadt, and Cozens. If all 4 reach their talent ceiling, we suddenly have a legitimate Cup contender.
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14 minutes ago, Doohickie said:
The glass is half full. How you prefer to look at it, is up to you.
I see a half-full glass of public water from Flint, Michigan; the yellowish-brown tint won't turn clear for me until a playoff spot is clinched.
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Does this turd really believe playing will make a difference? Does he really think the rest of the NHL will ever see him as anything other than an injury-prone, low hockey-IQ, 3rd overall draft bust? Regardless of playing time, his NHL career trajectory is 2 or 3 more years max as a third-pair defenseman at the vet minimum. Just enjoy the $6-million-per-year you stole from the Sabres, Zach, relax in the warm confines of the press box for the next few months, and STFU until the coach calls your name you piece of ***** Tank Era locker room cancer.
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We're also just a few bad games in a row from bouncing down from the #2 division playoff seed to #12 overall in the conference. I still don't think much has changed with this team. Our critical #2 center of the future is now a regular scratch, our $10 million-per-year left winger is pulling a Matt Moulson on us, and our comatose GM continues to waste away the prime years of Eichel without any urgency to make the playoffs.
Or am I being overly negative?
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13 hours ago, Derrico said:
This is not a team I care to route for. They’re soft, can’t score consistently and have Absolutely no heart.
I have too many other stressors in my life right now. This was suppose to an outlet to distract me from some other issues I’m dealing with. Long story short I think I’m going to take a break for a bit from this team which unfortunately includes our little corner of the internet. Hopefully when the team becomes something to be proud of again I’ll return but now is looking like a nice time for a break. For the most part I’ve enjoyed our discussions all. Sure I’ll be back eventually. Everyone in Sabrespace Fantasy Football, you’re still going down!!
I was just about to post the same thing. The lack of response to the Dahlin hit was my personal breaking point. I'll probably still check in a few times a week, though, to read the Bills thread and see what the very knowledgeable hockey people here think about any major Sabres news that comes up, like a firing or a big trade. But the bottom line is that I currently suffer from clinical depression, and following this franchise is not helping my condition at all. There is nothing even remotely fun or entertaining about Buffalo Sabres hockey anymore. I sincerely believe that this current collection of players will never win anything meaningful in the NHL. A team that can't stick up for a teammate will never succeed in the Stanley Cup playoffs.
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27 minutes ago, Doohickie said:
This is a key point:
It's not so much that he's "good" it's that he's getting better, and rather quickly. The last two games made that very apparent. The TD pass to Brown yesterday stands out to me as a pass he doesn't make last year, or even earlier this year. He's getting through his progressions much more quickly and is learning to just throw it away if the receiver isn't open and he's being pressured. He's turning from a shoot-out kind of QB to a game manager, although the shoot-out mentality is still in his DNA. In other words, he's harnessing his talent with discipline, something that his critics doubted would ever happen.
This is likely only a temporary but necessary stage in his development as an NFL franchise QB. He simply doesn't have the experience (not just as a pro, but as a QB in general) to run a high-octane offense right now. To be honest, the current WR's and OL don't have the talent to do it either. But when you have a top-5 defense and a top-5 running game (partly due to Allen's own running skills), why not opt for the game-manager QB role a bit more? The team is a singular Steelers away game victory from an 80% chance of making the playoffs; they are an additional Jets home game victory from having their best record since 1999.
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2 hours ago, JujuFish said:
Now is as good a time as any to let Allen hit a 300 yard game. I'm curious to see if they let him pass on this upcoming drive.
Why do people continue to talk about 300 passing yards like it matters? Fitzpatrick threw for 323 yards today. Lamar Jackson threw for 222. Kyle Allen threw for 325.
It's not really that important - in terms of wins or in terms of QB development - for Allen to be throwing 300+ yards in any game this year.
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32 minutes ago, ubkev said:
I remember that well. Tom Brady hates Buffalo more than just about anything. He loves beating the Bills so much. He loves sticking it to the fans every game. He loves when they throw dildos at him. He loves the hate. He just loves it. He throws shade on the Bills out of nowhere all the time.
No doubt.
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25 minutes ago, JujuFish said:
I haven't done the work, but I'd be willing to bet he has faced the easiest combined competition of anyone in the league, for his career thus far. And with one of the best defenses in the league. This is not a good argument at this stage of his career.
I don't know about that one. I'd definitely like to see someone put together evidence of it.
I do know that Josh Allen is the #1 QB in the entire NFL this season during the 4th quarter, with a 139.6 QBR and a 68.8% completion percentage.
What about quarters 1, 2, and 3? Well...that's where he's looking like a young QB still learning how to play in the league after 18 total career regular season games. Mayfield, Darnold, Rosen, and even Jackson (if you overlook his incredible running ability) have all looked pretty rough for large stretches of their young careers.
The Josh Allen haters (as opposed to the skeptics, whom I find perfectly reasonable) are the instant gratification personality types who demand Pat Mahomes production with no regard for the concept of different learning curves and different circumstances for different people.
I certainly will expect a noticeable jump in improvement by next September, which at that point Allen will have had 2 full years with Daboll plus a likely 1st round WR and more solidification along the OL. I think we will see that jump, and I think Allen will go on to be a franchise QB (what type of one - somewhere between Stafford and Brady - I have no idea). In the meantime, just accept that Allen is going to frustrate at various points throughout this season. Fortunately, Beane and McDermott have put together the #3 NFL defense and a top 5-10 NFL rushing offense to help the team slip into a wild-card spot with a pretty easy remaining schedule.
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Risto's plus/minus is 0 after 9 games. That's a fancy enough stat for me which suggests that there might be something to this Krueger guy.
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1 minute ago, Andrew Amerk said:
10/11 with two touchdowns in the 2nd half. Not many 3 and outs in the game. JA looked fine to me.
117.4 QBR. Zero turnovers. Another second-half comeback. While it would have been preferable that he connect on some of those deep passes in the first half, the real disappointment with this game is that our supposedly elite #2 defense let Fitzmagic's troops march up and down the field for almost 400 yards and 3 TD's. Matt Milano is good, but is he really THAT important to the defense? Levi Wallace had a very disappointing game. And I know QB sacks aren't the most important stat in the world, but only 1 against that beaten up Miami OL?!
Anyway...I'm actually in a good mood about this game because we are 5-1 (5th best record in the league) and escaped without any major injuries (that I know of?). Watch the tape, learn from this, and move on to Philly. The Bills are 5-1 and the Sabres are 7-1-1. I'm happy. Keep stacking up these wins, Buffalo!
Buffalo Bills 2019-2020
in The Aud Club
Posted
Actually, if you're trying to determine the significance of Buffalo's weather as a factor on QB performance, you would start by comparing the stats of every QB who played in Buffalo with their stats when not playing in Buffalo. This includes Josh's stats.
I listed weather (mostly wind this season) as just one of 3 factors outside Josh Allen's control that affect completion percentage. Another is the team's abnormally high number of dropped passes. The biggest factor, however, is the type of offensive system run. For example, Lamar Jackson's completion percentage would likely drop in Daboll's system and Josh Allen's would likely rise in Roman's system.
I also listed throwing mechanics and footwork as affecting completion percentage. Josh has improved in this aspect of his game since last season, but he still gets sloppy at times.
One factor I forgot to add is pro experience. The more defensive looks a QB has seen in his lifetime, the better he should get at completing passes (though this will plateau after a certain number of games played...usually after about 3 full seasons).
Yet another obvious factor I didn't initially mention is the type of defenses faced. Playing the Ravens and the Steelers in the AFC North will tend to lower completion percentage compared to playing the Giants and Skins in the NFC East.
So basically, there are a number of factors (I've listed 6 now) that affect completion percentage, with weather being one factor but normally not the most important factor. I think it's reasonable to expect about 65% from Josh for his third season under Daboll, but the 58.8% right now isn't at all alarming. Like I said earlier, that's a difference of about 25 completed passes over 15 games. A true #1 WR, an upgrade at LG and RT, and an improvement over Gore are what we should expect from Buffalo this off-season to help Allen succeed. Of course, even if Josh Allen reaches 65%, I'm sure there will be another stat that many of you here will cling to in order to validate your preconceived opinion that he is a bust...