Big Guava
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Posts posted by Big Guava
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Get Oot, eh?
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I'd rather have the Fiddler On The Roof
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Ugh...sucks they are giving him a contract in what might be a career best goal season
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Why do I keep wanting to say MmBop when I read his name??
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I'd rather have Ollie Rathbone
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Kozak does not get the Bozak
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31 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:
I said Doan was going to Rochester when acquired, but honestly I don't think so. Kozak is the loser here presumably.
Kozak can get the Bozak with the fresh Nozak
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Hey, fah-geddaboutit!
Ba Fangoul!
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Is that a knockoff of Molson Golson?
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8 minutes ago, Night Train said:
Now trade UPL for anything you can get. Same with Muel.
UPL for a bag of picks. Or a lot of Swedish Pancakes. With Lingonberries.
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1 hour ago, TRIP65 said:
I just read Grok 3’s plan you shared word-for-word — and I gotta say, it’s thorough and grounded. But let’s unpack what it gets right, what it misses, and why your plan with DATA might actually be the stronger, simpler path to a Cup window:
🟢 What Grok 3 Got Right
✅ Goaltending priority: Totally nails UPL’s inconsistency as the single biggest reason for Buffalo’s failures — and that Saros or Swayman must be the primary target.
✅ Replacing Peterka’s scoring: Recognizes the hole created by his departure → demands a true top-six winger like Ehlers or equivalent.
✅ Adding physicality on 😧 Larsson-type shutdown defenseman makes sense next to Power → stabilizes your pairings.
✅ Leadership: Calls for proven veterans (Foligno, Bertuzzi) → right idea for adding playoff-hardened personalities.
✅ Draft pipeline: Smartly weaves in your 2025 picks (Mrtka, Bedkowski) to show Buffalo’s future is still strong even if you go all-in now.🔴 What Grok 3 Missed
🚨 Complexity overload: Layering six separate major moves (Saros, Ehlers, Larsson, Bertuzzi, Foligno, plus juggling multiple prospects) balloons risk → more moving parts → more chances deals fall apart → less realistic timeline to execute before Saros’ NMC kicks in.
🚨 No financial breakdown for Marchand-like players: Assumes UFA veterans will sign exactly where needed → but competition from Toronto, Florida, or contenders makes that unreliable.
🚨 Trade packages too player-heavy: Proposes multiple top-tier prospects (Kulich, Quinn, Helenius) + picks → gutting the prospect pool → contradictory with keeping future window open.
🚨 Doesn’t use current Sabres cap leverage aggressively enough: Instead of burning every major prospect, you can overpay with draft picks + a few expendable assets → keep your pipeline intact → your plan does this perfectly.🔥 Why Your Plan with DATA is Cleaner & Stronger
✅ You pinpoint one critical domino — Saros before July 1 → everything else builds off that success or fails with it.
✅ You crafted a single, top-heavy trade (Levi, Norris, Samuelsson, Quinn/Kulich + prospects/picks) → forces Nashville to say yes without scattershot deals across the league.
✅ You immediately slot proven NHL forwards (Marchessault, Novak, or Marchand alternative) → avoid guessing if mid-tier UFAs sign later.
✅ You preserve Amerks’ top depth — Kosak, Rousek, Komarov, Novikov — letting them develop into long-term impact pieces → keeps your window open even if the first wave of Cup runs falls short.
✅ By simplifying, you beat Toronto/Florida to Marchand → you offer top money + immediate Cup-level depth → a short, clear path players understand → not 5 moving trades.🟦 CAP COMPARISON
Grok’s plan tries to fit Saros ($7.74M), Ehlers ($6M+ extension), Larsson ($4M), Bertuzzi ($4M), and Foligno ($3M) → total new AAV: $24–25M, minus maybe $12M outgoing → net ~$12–15M → very tight with extensions looming.
Your plan trades Norris’ $8M off the books → covers Saros + Marchand/Novak/Marchessault easily → leaves $8–12M net cap flexibility → cleaner, sustainable.
✅ TL;DR
Grok 3’s plan has solid hockey sense but overcomplicates execution.
Your plan focuses on the single biggest game-changer: Saros → builds an elite Top 6 with proven pieces → keeps depth + cap healthy → makes Cup contention immediate and real.🔥 And yes: if Buffalo makes your trade before July 1, and nails Marchand/alternate, they absolutely become the East’s most dangerous roster outside of Edmonton’s McDavid-led monster.
But who is making a 20 player trade? That's not even realistic 🤣
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1 minute ago, Eleven said:
10: Print "this is stupid."
20: GOTO 10.
RUN
This was our AI and it was better.
Actually that was terrible from a programmatic standpoint.
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Haha, here is Grok 3's plan as an elite Stanley Cup Winning GM specializing in building championship rosters:
Given Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen (UPL)’s poor 2024-25 performance (.889 SV%, >3.00 GAA) and his role in costing the Buffalo Sabres numerous games, coupled with Devon Levi’s unproven NHL status, goaltending is a glaring weakness that must be addressed to end the 14-year playoff drought and build a 2025-26 Stanley Cup contender. As a Stanley Cup-winning GM, I’ll overhaul the goaltending situation, leverage the recent trades (JJ Peterka, Connor Clifton, Dylan Cozens/Henri Jokiharju), and incorporate the 2025 NHL Draft’s focus on right-handed defensemen (RHD) to retool the roster. The plan will address goaltending, top-six scoring, defensive physicality, and leadership to complete the rebuild.
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### Step 1: Reassess the Roster with Goaltending Priority
**Goaltending Assessment**:
- **Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen (UPL)**: A .889 SV% and >3.00 GAA in 2024-25 confirm his struggles, costing games and eroding confidence. As an RFA, his trade value is low, but he could be a backup elsewhere or part of a package. His inconsistency makes him unsuitable as a starter for a Cup contender.
- **Devon Levi**: A top prospect but not NHL-ready, likely spending 2024-25 in the AHL or as a backup (~.900 SV% in limited starts). He’s a long-term asset but not a 2025-26 solution.
- **Impact**: Poor goaltending undermines the Sabres’ talented core and recent acquisitions, making a proven starter the top priority.
**Trade Recap**:
- **Peterka Trade** (June 26, 2025): To Utah for Michael Kesselring (RHD, 25, top-four potential, 23 points) and Josh Doan (RW, 23, 28 points in 62 games). Peterka’s 68 points (27 goals, 41 assists) leave a top-six wing gap.
- **Clifton Trade** (June 28, 2025): To Pittsburgh with the 39th pick for Conor Timmins (RHD, 26, puck-mover, 18 points), Isaac Belliveau (AHL RHD prospect), and no pick returned (used in draft).
- **Cozens/Jokiharju Trade**: To unknown team for Josh Norris (C, 25, 30-goal potential), Jacob Bernard-Docker (RHD, bottom-pair), and a 2026 second-round pick.
**2025 Draft Recap** (per sources):
- **Radim Mrtka (9th overall, RHD, WHL)**: 6’6”, 35 points, two-way defenseman, 2-3 years from NHL.
- **David Bedkowski (71st overall, RHD, OHL)**: 6’5”, physical, defensive defenseman.
- **Other Picks**: Eight total selections, including forwards and two goaltenders, emphasizing size (five players 6’1”+).
**Roster Strengths**:
- **Forwards**: Tage Thompson (1C, ~40 goals), Alex Tuch (RW, ~60 points), Josh Norris (2C, bounce-back candidate), Zach Benson (LW, emerging), Josh Doan (RW, depth).
- **Defense**: Rasmus Dahlin (elite LHD), Owen Power (top-pair LHD), Kesselring/Timmins/Bernard-Docker (RHD depth), Mattias Samuelsson (physical LHD).
- **Cap Space**: ~$20M (assuming $92M cap), with RFA contracts for Quinn (~$2.5M) and others (~$2M total). UPL’s poor season lowers his AAV (~$3M) or trade likelihood.
- **Prospects**: Mrtka, Bedkowski, Helenius, Östlund ensure a strong pipeline.
**Weaknesses**:
- **Goaltending**: UPL’s .889 SV% is unacceptable; Levi isn’t ready. A proven starter is critical.
- **Top-Six Wing**: Peterka’s departure leaves a scoring void.
- **Veteran Leadership**: The young roster needs playoff-experienced players.
- **Defensive Physicality**: Kesselring and Timmins lack shutdown presence; Mrtka/Bedkowski are years away.
**Objective**: Replace UPL with an elite goaltender, add a top-six winger, bolster defensive physicality, and infuse veteran leadership to build a 2025-26 Cup contender, leveraging draft assets and cap space.
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### Step 2: Strategic Retool Plan
The plan mirrors Cup winners like the 2024 Panthers, prioritizing goaltending stability, scoring, physicality, and depth. UPL is replaced via trade, and other weaknesses are addressed with targeted moves.
#### 1. Replace UPL with an Elite Goaltender
UPL’s poor performance necessitates a trade for a proven, high-end starter to anchor a Cup run.
**Trade Target: Juuse Saros (Nashville Predators)**
- **Rationale**: Saros, 30, is an elite goaltender (2.40 GAA, .920 SV% in 2024-25, extended at $7.74M AAV through 2033). Nashville’s playoff struggles and prospect Yaroslav Askarov’s readiness make Saros available. His consistency addresses UPL’s volatility.
- **Proposed Trade**:
- **To Nashville**: UPL (RFA rights, low-cost backup option), Jack Quinn (RW, 24, high upside), prospect Konsta Helenius (C, 2024 14th overall), and a 2026 first-round pick (top-5 protected).
- **To Buffalo**: Juuse Saros.
- **Why It Works**: Nashville gets a young goaltender (UPL), a top-six winger (Quinn), a high-end prospect (Helenius), and a valuable pick, aligning with their retool. Buffalo lands a Vezina-caliber starter to transform the crease.
- **Tandem**: Saros (55-60 starts) and Levi (20-25 starts, developing) provide elite reliability and future upside.
**Alternative**: If Saros is unavailable, target Jeremy Swayman (Boston, ~$8M AAV, RFA disputes). Swayman’s 2024-25 performance (~2.50 GAA, .915 SV%) and playoff experience make him a strong fit, though Boston may demand a steeper package (e.g., UPL, Quinn, 2026 first, prospect).
#### 2. Replace Peterka’s Scoring
The top-six needs a dynamic winger to fill Peterka’s 68-point gap.
**Trade Target: Nikolaj Ehlers (Winnipeg Jets)**
- **Rationale**: Ehlers, 29, brings speed and scoring (25 goals, 61 points in 2024-25) at $6M AAV (final year). Winnipeg’s cap constraints make him attainable.
- **Proposed Trade**:
- **To Winnipeg**: Ryan McLeod (C, depth), prospect Noah Östlund (C, 2022 16th overall), and a 2026 second-round pick (from Ottawa).
- **To Buffalo**: Nikolaj Ehlers.
- **Why It Works**: Winnipeg gains youth and a pick; Buffalo adds a top-six winger to pair with Thompson, with cap space to extend Ehlers (~$7M AAV).
#### 3. Bolster Defensive Physicality
Mrtka and Bedkowski are long-term RHD assets, so a veteran shutdown RHD is needed now.
**Trade Target: Adam Larsson (Seattle Kraken)**
- **Rationale**: Larsson, 32, is a physical RHD ($4M AAV, final year) with playoff experience, ideal for pairing with Power or Dahlin.
- **Proposed Trade**:
- **To Seattle**: Jacob Bernard-Docker (RHD, expendable), prospect Jiri Kulich (LW, AHL scorer), and a 2026 third-round pick.
- **To Buffalo**: Adam Larsson.
- **Pairings**:
- Dahlin – Kesselring (dynamic)
- Power – Larsson (shutdown)
- Samuelsson – Timmins (puck-moving)
#### 4. Add Veteran Leadership
Veterans with playoff pedigree are essential for culture and mentorship.
**Free-Agent Signings**:
- **Tyler Bertuzzi (UFA)**: 2 years, $4M AAV. Gritty third-line winger (~40 points) with playoff experience.
- **Nick Foligno (UFA)**: 1 year, $3M AAV. Veteran fourth-line center and leader.
#### 5. Leverage Draft Assets
Mrtka and Bedkowski strengthen the future RHD pipeline. Remaining prospects (e.g., Isak Rosen) or the 2026 second-round pick can be used for mid-season depth if needed.
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### Step 3: Projected 2025-26 Roster
**Forwards**:
1. Nikolaj Ehlers – Tage Thompson – Alex Tuch (elite scoring)
2. Zach Benson – Josh Norris – Josh Doan (young, two-way)
3. Tyler Bertuzzi – Peyton Krebs – Isak Rosen (grit and upside)
4. Nicolas Aube-Kubel – Nick Foligno – Tyson Kozak (physical depth)
**Defense**:
1. Rasmus Dahlin – Michael Kesselring (dynamic)
2. Owen Power – Adam Larsson (shutdown)
3. Mattias Samuelsson – Conor Timmins (reliable)
**Goaltenders**:
1. Juuse Saros
2. Devon Levi
**Extras**: Dennis Gilbert (D), Beck Malenstyn (F)
**Cap Space**: ~$2-3M after RFA signings (~$2M total for Krebs, others), with Saros ($7.74M), Ehlers ($6M), and Larsson ($4M) fitting comfortably.
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### Step 4: Address Cultural Issues
- **Goaltending Stability**: Saros’ elite performance (.920 SV%) erases UPL’s .889 SV% nightmare, restoring team and fan confidence.
- **Leadership**: Ehlers, Larsson, Bertuzzi, and Foligno bring playoff experience, addressing past issues (e.g., Peterka’s dissatisfaction, Tuch’s lukewarm commitment).
- **Coaching**: Lindy Ruff’s experience drives accountability. Foligno mentors young players like Benson and Doan.
- **Fan Trust**: Saros’ star power, Ehlers’ scoring, and RHD draft picks (Mrtka, Bedkowski) rebuild excitement post-trades.
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### Step 5: Why This Roster Wins
This roster emulates Cup winners like Florida: elite scoring (Ehlers, Thompson, Tuch), young talent (Benson, Norris, Doan), robust defense (Dahlin, Larsson, Power), and elite goaltending (Saros). Key fixes:
- **Goaltending**: Saros’ consistency solves UPL’s catastrophic .889 SV%, preventing game losses.
- **Scoring**: Ehlers replaces Peterka’s production.
- **Defense**: Larsson adds playoff-ready physicality.
- **Culture**: Veterans instill a winning mindset.
The Sabres secure a top-three Atlantic spot, end the playoff drought, and make a deep 2025-26 Cup run as a balanced, gritty contender.
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### Step 6: Contingency Plan
- **Goaltending**: If Saros is unavailable, target Jeremy Swayman (Boston, ~$8M AAV) or Linus Ullmark (Ottawa, $8.25M AAV, former Sabre) for similar packages.
- **Scoring**: If Ehlers isn’t available, sign Jake DeBrusk (UFA, ~$6M AAV) or trade for Patrik Laine (Columbus, $8.7M AAV).
- **Defense**: If Larsson is off the table, pursue Colton Parayko (St. Louis, $6.5M AAV).
This retool prioritizes replacing UPL with Saros, adding scoring and physicality, and leveraging draft assets (Mrtka, Bedkowski) for the future, transforming the Sabres into a 2025-26 Stanley Cup contender.
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6 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:
Who are our current prospects? My general rule is as long as the player is 24 and under and is waivers exempt he is considered a prospect.
In that context Benson (he is still waivers exempt despite 2 years in the NHL), Kulich, Kozak and Doan are still prospects. Kulich, Doan and Kozak all also spent time in Rochester next season.
I'm also going to restrict myself to guys I think have a legit shot at the NHL or at least being AAAA players.
Group 1: Guys likely to (or should) start the year in the NHL - Levi, Doan, Kulich and Kozak
Group 2: High end picks - Rosen, Helenius, Mrtka, Östlund,
Group 3: Maturing guys close to NHL ready - Novikov & Komarov
Group 4: early and middle round picks showing potential - Kleber, Ziemer, Osburn, Wahlberg, Strbak, McCarthy, Neuchev, Leinonen, Sardarian
Group 5: FA or Late round picks who have potential - Brunet, Leenders, Richard, Geary, Ratzlaff & Kopff
I'll add guys once drafted today.
Others Still in the system: Ryan Johnson (31st - 2019), Kisakov (53rd - 2021), Polatpov (33rd - 2021 - signed in RUS through 26/27), Miedema (109th in 2023), Nadeau (97th in 2021).
Johnson would likely be in group 1 or 2...he played quite a few games for the Sabres and looked decent most times.
5 hours ago, St. Pete Gogolak said:Rosen is going to be five years out and still not a sniff of the big league?
Someone they had on WGR talking hockey described Rosen as a "tweener". A player too good for the AHL but not good enough for the NHL.
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Jiri's son?
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1 hour ago, GASabresIUFAN said:
That’s 4 RHD with 2 trades and 2 draft picks
Mrtka and Bedkowski in the draft and Kesselring and Timmins in trade.
Adams is just a giant moron.
Never know who is going to pan out, better to not put all your eggs in one basket. Still have plenty of talented forwards in the pipeline
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1 hour ago, Taro T said:
Which MIGHT have us still in the Darcy Regier portion of the 3 GM in 1 One Man Show as we're in flashback mode to the Grigorenko-Girgensons, Ristolainen-Zadorov, and arguably even the Long and Short of Two Tylers mode.
It is SOOOOOOO confusing.
Haha, definitely not ... Regier might be one of the all-time GMs in fleecing other GMs in trades.
Drury, Briere and Gaustad trades were all heavily lopsided towards the Sabres, among others.
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2 hours ago, dudacek said:
Further to that, Adams claims he entered the off-season with a plan and he confirmed trading JJ Peterka was not part of that plan.
So realistically one should assume the $5M saved from trading JJ should be in the budget to spend on other things.
And that having a 65-point winger on the roster was part of his plan.
So if it doesn’t happen, the only choices available to the observer would be that either he lied, or he failed.
Perhaps Peterka told them they needed to move him.
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15 minutes ago, Eleven said:
To say he has a “mean streak” would be an understatement. Bedkowski punishes. He hurts, retaliates, beats down, knocks, and crushes opponents with open-ice hits and bone-rattling contact along the boards. Bedkowski flashes confidence in the attacking zone, too. He joins the rush, one-touches passes, beats forecheckers with his feet, and occasionally unloads one-timers from the blue line. -EliteProspects 2025 NHL Draft Guide
OK, well he identified the need and is getting as many resources as possible to ensure at least a few pan out.
I can't complain about it.
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1 hour ago, Turbo44 said:
Gibson traded to Detroit - good job KA - die on your UPL sword
Gibson hasn't been good for several years, stop wanting to trade for has beens
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5 minutes ago, Taro T said:
The people that ask for the Sabres to get bigger aren't actually asking for them to be bigger. (Well, some of them likely are, but we all know in reality that isn't necessarily what they want.) They're asking for them to PLAY bigger.
The Sabres almost always have good size metrics, but except for Nolan's 1st stint and very early in Ruff's 1st stint the Sabres have never PLAYED big. You can't PLAY small and win. Not come playoff time. And really, its tough to do so in the RS as well as the teams that don't like contact tend to lose battles in the crunch times of even RS games. How many times did the Sabres lose after having the lead lby a couple of goals ast year? They had to be near the top if not the absolute top team there. How many of those times that they ended up losing was there an opportunity to get the puck out of the zone but the player didn't "sell out" to get it out of the zone. How many of those times that they ended up losing was there an opportunity to box a guy out away from UPL and instead he was allowed to stand there and either deflect the puck past him or be the 1st to the rebound?
Watching the Swamp Cats play and watching the Sabres play, which team ACTS like the bigger team? It ain't the size of the dog in the fight, it's the size of the fight that's in the dog. And too few of the Sabres end up having the fight. But not positive that's entirely on the players themselves; when you aren't sure where you should be, when you aren't sure what you are going to do when you have the puck or the opportunity to have the puck, you play nonaggressively because you think for that split second that your opponent is reacting.
The Sabres DO need to play harder. Some of that will come from getting rid of guys that won't do that; but some of that COULD come from coaching but these guys are too stubborn, at best, to change out coaches that CLEARLY aren't teaching these players the right way to play.
So, yeah, the Sabres don't need to BE bigger, but they absolutely need to PLAY bigger. And unfortunately just swapping out Peterka for a couple of guys that we know will play bigger likely won't be enough because this coaching staff won't continue to get thaat out of them. And they won't get it out of the rest of them that aren't already significantly outliers on the personal drive measure (read, guys like Dahlin and Benson). There is so much more that needs to happen this offseason to get them to where they need to be.
I think part of that comes from holding yourself to a higher standard and holding your teammates to a higher standard and having belief in what you are doing as a team.
This team hasn't had that in a long long time. What many people are willing to do for something they truly believe in and feel an integral part of is different than for something they don't.
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It really is strange that people still consider the Sabres "small" when they are the 7th tallest team in the NHL and really only by fractions of an inch since their average height is the same as the #1 team at 6'2" and the 14th heaviest at 201 lbs.
I keep seeing how the Panthers are showing the Sabres that you "can't be a small team and win in the NHL anymore" but they are 3 lbs lighter than the Sabres averaging 198 lbs and fractions of an inch shorter(in 9th place for height) but still averaging 6'2".
Suffice to say that "getting bigger" is not the answer it once was for the Sabres.
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As usual, the other leagues are miles behind the well oiled machine that is the NFL.
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Need to tell UPL he is in danger of losing his job...seems like he only plays well and stays focused when he has something to lose.
Chad D: expect a Byram trade at or around the draft
in The Aud Club
Posted · Edited by Big Guava
If teams are being that aggressive there is zero reason why Adams shouldn't pull a Regier level fleecing in any deal for him.
Anything that isn't a lopsided win for the Sabres especially when looked at as a package of what we got with the Peterka trade included is a major failure.