Archie Lee
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Posts posted by Archie Lee
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7 hours ago, Crusader1969 said:
that's why I specifically said " let's Assume the Sabres had competent ownership, mgmt and coaching.
Or are you saying it would have been impossible for them to get to the level of players they've become if they stayed in Buffalo? If that's the case how do you explain Tage's progress and Dahlin becoming one of the top defenders in the league
Not to mention both Sam and Jack were pretty good as Sabres and neither had hit their "prime" before being traded away
Competent ownership and management and coaching are the issues.
It is not hard for me to imagine Thompson scoring 50 and being an offensive juggernaut, and a physical menace (not in the Bennett sense), playing on the first line of a cup winning team. Likewise, I could easily see Dahlin having a Conn Smythe level playoff performance for a cup winner. I can’t see it happening here. Not with this regime in charge.
The big question at this point, in my view, is do Adams and Ruff get fired before Thompson or Dahlin demand a trade?
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6 hours ago, CallawaySabres said:
It just reveals what we already know....this team is full of coasters who don't want to get their hands dirty and put in the work. It will be sooner than later when Tage adds his name to the list of people who will demand out of here.
I started to think that it would be best to relocate for a year if you knew you could get a brand new team after the 2025 season. Either that or trade Dahlin, Tuch, Peterka and Tuch and start with a whole new group. It can't get any worse than it is now and maybe the next group will offer entertaining hockey once in a while.
Then we can watch the next group taking turns winning the cup.
There is no mystery here.
Post-Regier, Pegula hired Tim Murray, Botterill, and Adams to be his GMs. And head coaches included Housley, Krueger, and now Ruff at the end of his career. Pegula has simply hired the wrong people over and over.
It’s not the players.
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16 minutes ago, dudacek said:
This is exactly right, and i'd be interested if they are.
I would rather go with Cirelli than Peterka in my top 9.
And a Norris Cirelli McLeod centre spine is a lot more veteran and harder to play against than what we had last year. Something like this?
- Thompson Cirelli Benson
- Tuch Norris Zucker
- Quinn McLeod Greenway
With Kulich forcing his way into the mix.
I agree that this would seemingly take us closer to the playoffs this season.
Of course, it's probably fair to say that if the Tampa Bay Lightning are willing to trade Cirelli for Peterka, that there are some smart hockey people who think Peterka has the potential to be very, very good.
Peterka is going into the season that Panarin and Kaprizov were in when they first game to the NHL from Russia. In what would have been their respective D5 years, Panarin and Kaprizov were in the KHL and repectively put of 62 points in 54 games and 62 points in 57 games. Peterka had 68 points in 73 NHL games in his D5. I'm not saying that Peterka will be a Panarin/Kaprizov level of player. But, I wonder if some teams perhaps see that level as his potential ceiling. With star level players being so hard to find, particularly when you are always finishing in the top 3rd of the league and/or trading your 1st rd picks, Tampa might just see Peterka as a chance worth taking. At worst, he's a 70 point winger, which is nothing to sneeze at. At best, maybe he is the 90-100 point winger that Peca (allegedly) predicted when he coached him in Rochester.
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The only real hope is that a group of players out performs expectations and have career type years.
Ruff has had two winning seasons in his last 11 as a head coach. One of then was 22-23 in NJ. The Devils had 112 points that year and Ruff was nominated for Coach of the Year. But several players had career years. Hughes, Hischer, Hamilton, and Mercer, all had their best offensive seasons that year. And Vanecek had a .911 save %, before dropping the next year to .890.
So, Thompson could score 50, Dahlin could get to 80 points, Benson to 50, a healthy Norris to 60, Tuch in a contract year could put up 75 points. If Peterka was coming back, he might be an 80 point player. Luukkonen could bounce back and be a .910 goalie again. These or similar things, could happen. That's really the only thing to be hopeful for.
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1 hour ago, Jorcus said:
They only have 1 veteran forward of note without a NMT or no trade. Brandon Hagel. They can offer the young Conor Geekie. They have no first round draft picks for the next 3 years. Defense seems to be a bigger need. I don't think they are even in the game unless there is some 3 way deal going on.
Puckpedia could be wrong, but in the fine print on their player page for Cirelli it indicates that his no trade clause kicks in July 1st this year.
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I wouldn’t hate Peterka for Kyrou. It is at least getting an established NHL player in return. They are offensively similar and I think Kyrou’s defensive game has improved.
Kyrou is 4 years older than Peterka. Like Peterka he was a 2nd round pick. He was drafted out of major junior by a St Louis team full of vets, so there was no quick path to the NHL like Peterka had. In his D5 year, which Peterka just completed, Kyrou had 35 points in 55 games (Covid year). Since then he has put up offensive numbers equal to what Peterka did this year (73 pts per 82 games). Kyrou signed his current 8 year 8.13 million per year deal, after his D7 year. One way to look at is that Kyrou has proven he is a 70-75 point winger, and JJP hasn’t quite yet. Another way to look at it is we are giving up 4 prime years in a similar player’s career. And then there is the possibility Peterka is only scratching the surface of his offensive output
If there is a team out there that really likes Peterka, I could see him getting an offer sheet in the $9 million range, where the Sabres would not match; the cost would be a 1st, 2nd and 3rd. If Peterka’s offensive ceiling is just a bit higher than what he has shown, then he is likely going to be worth $9 million per year in the not distant future. Seems crazy, but…
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46 minutes ago, JohnC said:
All the negative conditions you list can't be disputed. My worry is that there have been some reported rumblings made by Dahlin that the organization has to show that it is serious about changing things here to get on track. If he reaches that FU get me out of here threshold, then this franchise will have fallen completely into the abyss. And if Tuch doesn't want to sign another contract, that will be another indication that the players (insiders) know how bad things are within this ill-franchise.
On a positive note, I really believe that if this front office, with the help of the former GM, can make a few consequential moves and do it adroitly without gutting the roster, there will be a glimmer of hope. I apologize for repeating myself but I strongly believe that if the goalie position is strengthened, that will be the most impactful move this franchise can make. That is not to say that other moves don't need to be made but the biggest bang for the buck is associated with that position. Losing Ullmark was a setback that hurt this franchise. I consider him to be a solid goalie and not an upper echelon goalie. With that type of backstopping this team is much better. Needless to say, this offseason is going to be intriguing to follow. The Sabres don't attract much attention from the hockey world during the season. Ironically, they may be the most compelling story this offseason.
I am generally a “the off-season is a time for optimism” guy. I’m trying to engage in my usual off-season routine of considering what I think are reasonable options for improving the roster and moving to being a playoff squad. I just can’t quite get there though. The best scenario that I can imagine realistically unfolding, is that we fluke into a line-up configuration that includes 2-3 players who have career type years and/or who have personalities that transcend the doom and gloom (or both), and we get to a wild-card position. The downside of that is that it will likely mean an extension for Adams and he will then need to prove it wasn’t a fluke, which I would bet against him doing.
I’m not a cynic, but I am capable of cynicism. No team in the league for this coming season, will be worse positioned than the Sabres for a “that went south quickly” moment. There is a far higher than zero chance that they get booed off the ice at the home opener. I don’t think the players are going to go through any walls for this owner, GM, and HC.
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17 minutes ago, JohnC said:
What's the source of JJP's "apparent" disgruntlement? Is it the "Jack" syndrome where he feels stuck in a losing system and irrelevant franchise? Or is it he just wants out for a change for the sake of change? Every year the Sabre players are watching the playoffs from their couches. That's got to bother them watching players they know having that opportunity while they don't. The underlying fear for many Sabre fans (me included) is that he gets dealt and has a breakout year. The recurring scene of former Sabres wearing other jerseys and thriving has to stop.
I think some players probably look at the Sabres and can’t come up with a team that they would less like to play for. 14 years out of the playoffs, meddling owner, incompetent 1st time GM about to get his 6th year, oldest coach in the league who finished near the top of “coach I wouldn’t want to play for” polling this year, no front office accountability, an eroding fan base, etc.. Then they look around and see all these former Sabres thriving. Nobody is going to look down on a good player for not wanting to be a Sabre. There is no downside to wanting out and asking for it. You won’t be labeled a malcontent or a problem player by the rest of the NHL, for wanting out of Buffalo There is no situation in the league worse. So why not tear off the bandaid and do what you need to do to get out now.
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8 minutes ago, JohnC said:
You made the crushing point in a previous post that because of this franchise's extended history of ineptitude, this franchise isn't an appealing place to come to or be locked into for a long time. And as you searingly noted, it did it to itself. When you shoot yourself in the foot it is difficult to run a race.
What happens if he refuses to sign a new deal and rides out his current contract?
Well, all of this is going to play out in the next month or so. Again, if Byram won’t extend long-term, then he should be moved for the best return possible.
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1 minute ago, SwampD said:
Why do we always have to trade our better players?
I guess we just can’t have nice things.
This is my fear. While there have been no real credible rumours this off-season, the two things that have been whispered are:
- Byram to San Jose for pieces with the big piece being #30 overall; and
- We are interested in Rakell or Rust from Pittsburgh and they like Helenius.
I look at those two scenarios and see us trading maybe the best player right now in Byram, who is only 24 and plays a position where it is hard to find really good players, and the best future asset in Helenius who might be a middle 6 NHL centre, for an older winger with depreciating skills and value and a late 1st in a not strong draft.
I know these things haven’t happened. And I know I have advocated for acquiring Rust. But these would be, in my view, the desperate moves of a man trying to save his job and not the calculated moves of a skilled GM.
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2 minutes ago, JohnC said:
It's not certain either way who is going to be the better player. But that issue is somewhat neutralized because Dahlin's style of play overlaps Byram's style of play, and he is better. Byram wants to be a #1 defenseman and a #1 on the PP unit. With the Sabres, he is bumped from that top role because Dahlin assumes it.
The one issue that tilts the situation in his favor with his current team is his contract status. After a year, he's in control of his destiny in where he wants to be and whether his contract aspirations will be met. In my view, it would make little sense to jettison Power for Byram unless he is locked up with a long-gilded contract. I just don't see it making sense for Byram to bind himself up with this franchise when he will have better options in the not-too-distant future.
Certainly we would need to lock up Byram before considering a Power trade.
2 minutes ago, JohnC said:Do you think that Byram would sign a 4-5 year deal when waiting another year he would be an UFA when the cap gets bigger? My sense is that Byram is willing to bet on himself and ride out his current contract. Then he would have more teams bidding for him.
Of course if Byram is dead-set against staying in Buffalo, then he should be moved.
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3 hours ago, LGR4GM said:
You can always find a Rangers fan... also Buffalo desperately needs knew coaching.
So true. Benson is an outlier who is simply a good 200ft player. Benson would have good d-metrics in any system because he is defensively responsible and committed. The narrative a year ago was that players were craving structure and accountability. Adams and Pegula see Ruff as the sort of old school coach that demands from players what they perceive to have been missing; but a closer examination would have allowed them to conclude that Ruff hasn’t been that coach for some time (if he ever truly was). This team needed a Hynes or an Evason.
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11 hours ago, Thorny said:
Kris Baker likes him? Oh I’ve never been more certain he terrible
I am not certain it would be better to trade Power than Byram. I think though that right now Byram is the better player. And I think his game translates better than Power’s to the type of hockey we are watching right now. And I think Byram has the sort of personality that people gravitate to and follow, and, while I like Power, I don’t think he has that gene. And I think we could extend Byram for less than Power’s current AAV of $8.35 million. And I think Power’s draft pedigree might mean he returns a better veteran player in trade. And, like you, I think ending this drought is critical. And Byram is only 17 months older than Power, so there is still lots of runway for Byram to improve. But I definitely could be wrong. And, there is a next to zero chance that Adams trades his first OA pick. The next GM might, but not Adams.
I think we should try to remember that the Sabres are in this position due to gross mismanagement. Forget the 14 years. Adams has positioned the Sabres as one of the league’s youngest teams, with the league’s oldest coach, with back to back year’s of on-ice regression, and with salary cap issues. The Carolina Hurricanes can pretty much bring in any player they want this off-season, without having to move out anyone under team-control. The Sabres can’t do that. We fans did not screw this up.
1 hour ago, JohnC said:I'm dead set against trading Power over signing Byram to an extended contract, which I doubt will happen. If Byram believes that he is a #1 defender, then his AAV will be in the $8 M plus range or even more as the cap goes up. I don't believe Byram wants to sign a long-term contract here. (My opinion) From a contract standpoint, his best approach will be to ride out his contract and then pursue an even bigger contract as the cap goes up. The best response for the front office would be to trade him this offseason and get the best deal that they can get. What will the return be? I'm not sure. But there should be multiple teams interested in acquiring him so the return should be reasonable enough.
I want to be clear that I like Byram as a player a lot. But sometimes what a player wants and what the organization wants to do don't mesh with each other's best interest. If we use him as a chip to get a different type of defenseman and we upgrade the goalie position, those transactions would be substantive roster upgrading acts.
I respect this. I just think Byram is a better player now and their respective ages, skills, and personalities, make it far from a certain thing that Power is the better long-term player.
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2 hours ago, dudacek said:
If net neutral means 70% goals for, sure.
Oh right, goals for and against is the single most meaningless stat.
I’m with you (and Baker) on Byram. Extend him and let him be Dahlin’s long-term partner. He just turned 24.
Power and Clifton make the same combined salary as Kadri and Andersson in Calgary. I’m not saying straight up (maybe we can get a pick or prospect too) and of course we have trade clauses to contend with, but if you want to make the playoffs this year, wouldn’t we just be a better team if we traded Power, Clifton, Kulich for Kadri, Andersson, and a wanker like Popisil (plus a future asset). And we can take a D at 9. -
45 minutes ago, Thorny said:
There’s tons of things they can do. They can trade their first round pick
The things they can do fall under the category of “well, WELL, no one else does that so”
..so they don’t get considered. But the sabres RECORD is something no one else does. They should trade their first, trade Konsta H, any future asset they can in the name of competing this year: there will be a draft next year, you’ll get your 7 picks people, it’ll be ok
I have zero expectations that they will act responsibly and effectively, but if I'm in the "they should" mode, then they should act like a normal NHL team and keep the players who are good and can help them win now (see: Byram, Peterka), and move out some younger NHL assets that are not helping them win now and that are, in some cases, a bit over-priced or about to be a bit over-priced (see: Power, Kulich, Quinn, Samuelsson, perhaps Luukkonen, combined 20 million in cap for the coming season), for players who can help them make the playoffs now. Attach a prospect or draft pick to these players if needed, but don't toss away the future.
The Sabres can't bring in veteran contracts without sending contracts out. If they want to win now, the contracts that are leaving should be the ones that are least likely to help with that goal.
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29 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:
You're missing a key element. Does Casey Mittelstadt on the Sabres make them better? I'd argue no. So yes we can be mad that Mitts wasn't traded for something we need, but if Byram gets us that, that's good.
Correct. But our GM has acknowledged he had no plan for Byram, and our record regressed with Byram (not his fault), and we now, it seems, have to trade Byram and we don’t know what we are getting for him. Sometimes there are no winners in a trade. It’s early to conclude on this one, in my view.
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13 hours ago, Brawndo said:
For contrast
Good thing we aren’t trading Benson for Rust.
If anyone has access to the Athletic’s player cards, they rank Rust as a +7 overall (Benson a +2, Peterka a +4). They have Rust’s contract value at $1.5 million higher than his actual $5.125 AAV. Their summary makes clear he is not great defensively.That said, I am not big on a Helenius for Rust or Rakell trade. Quinn, Rosen, and a 2nd? Sure. But as we are plagued by the same things that plagued the Sabres in the Eichel, O’Reilly, Reinhart days (a bad GM and a bad HC), I prefer we hold on to our best future assets out of hope that Pegula gets lucky with his next GM/HC hirings.
My worst fears may be unfolding. Our near historically bad GM is about to trade our best future assets in a desperate attempt to save his job.
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Just now, ... said:
It's not like it's a SCF game - and that 3-0 score was at the end of the first period - against Edmonton. Did we expect the Oilers to sit back and take it?
Long gone are the days of expecting any team being able to hold a lead through two periods - if those days ever actually existed.
They showed a stat last night that this was one of only 7 times in history (back to the beginning), where a team overcame a 3 goal deficit to win a game in the finals. Last time it happened was 2006.
I agree with the general sentiment that leads are not safe like they were 20 years ago and that game tying goals with an empty-net are now a thing that seems to happen regularly. These are good things. It makes for much better hockey. Last night’s Oiler win, was still a historical outlier though.
Further to this, sort of, in his post-game press conference Maurice made a point of saying that he thinks the goaltending has been incredible. He added that the statistics are telling him something different, but the quality of shooters in today’s game is so good that the saves being made are amazing. 10 of the 16 playoff teams will finish the playoffs with a save % below .900. This is also good for hockey in my view.
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3 hours ago, LGR4GM said:
Adams won the Mitts trade. Mittelstadt is worth less than Byram as we sit here today. It's like winning the Jokiharju for Nylander trade, sure Joker wasn't great but he was better than Nylander. Byram's gonna give us more when traded than Mitts have Colorado.
I always thought that winning or losing a trade, was measured by some nebulous combination of individual player performance and team success. For example, people have long concluded that St. Louis won the O’Reilly trade. They won the cup and the Sabres have missed the playoffs every year since. Yet, Thompson is making a case that he was the best player in that deal (he may have a few 50 goal seasons in him coming).
I think Byram is a better hockey player than Mitts. Neither team reached their post-trade goals. But we will need a better return than Charlie Coyle, who we could use, for me to give the clear victory to Adams.
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4 minutes ago, K012010 said:
I guess we found the Edmonton fan. That was one of the most blatant lopsided officiating performances I’ve ever seen. There were multiple blatant penalties right when the Oilers scored in the second period including one of the Florida players stick being held for 20 full seconds right before the goal in full view of the ref.
Then it happened again in the third period with Verhaegge that directly impacted the scoring opportunity.
Also, the first penalty that led to the first power play goal was questionable.
They ignored at least four or five clear penalties on the Panthers mostly in the second period.
So I guess yeah that’s a bizarre take. lol
You must have missed the first period.
There were bad calls and missed calls both ways. The reffing wasn’t particularly good, but it wasn’t biased or lopsided.
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5 minutes ago, K012010 said:
If I’m a Florida fan, I would be so beside myself with the officiating tonight
Bizarre take
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6 minutes ago, DarthEbriate said:
DeBoer has coached his teams (FLA, NJD, SJS, VEG [pre-Eichel], and DAL) to the following # of post-season games played:
-, -, -, 24, -, -, -, 24, 6, 10, 20, -, 20, 19, -, 19, 19, 18
There are some playoff misses, especially early on with bad Florida. And SJS had a last-hurrah team, Vegas was very experienced rejects, and Dallas is stacked. But that's a surprising lack of first- and second-round exits.
He gets good teams to the playoffs, and then he gets them to the Conference Final year-after-year-after-year.
Ruff should be DeBoer's assistant coach.
There is no realistic player transaction that the Sabres could make this off-season, that would have a more immediate impact than replacing Ruff with DeBoer.
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11 minutes ago, Porous Five Hole said:
And yet…
I would like to see us trade Quinn+ for Rust. I would flank Kulich with Zucker and Rust as line 3. Give Kulich something we never gave Cozens: two solid veteran wingers who can teach how to be a pro.
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39 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:
We haven't won a playoff series since 2007. So yes, it's not gotten us much.
You think we should be trading for more 1st rd picks?
Where would be now ?
in The Aud Club
Posted
My best guess on Tuch is that they will keep him until the deadline. At that point, if the season is going well and we are in contention, they will hold on to him through the season with the hope that the improved team performance entices him to stay (assuming he has not already re-signed). If things go as they typically do and we are out of it by the deadline, then it will be clear he is not coming back and he will be traded (hopefully by a new GM).