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JohninMinn.

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  1. 20 hours ago, dudacek said:

    The question about whether this team still has enough offence is an interesting one. I crunched some numbers.

    Looking at the current starting 18, the Sabres have 10 guys who have been around long enough to have a reasonable track record. For these guys, I simply averaged their past 2 seasons as a moderate guesstimate for what we could expect this year.

    • Thompson 38
    • Tuch 29
    • Cozens 24
    • Zucker 21
    • Greenway 8
    • Lafferty 12
    • Aube-Kubel 5
    • Dahlin 17
    • Jokiharju 3
    • Clifton 5

    The other 8 are harder because they don’t really have reliable track records because of youth and/or injury. For these guys, I mostly leaned toward last year’s totals but extrapolated some based on goals per game and previous years totals.

    • Quinn 22
    • Peterka 24
    • Benson 11
    • Krebs 8
    • Malenstyn 6
    • Power 6
    • Byram 12
    • Samuelsson 2

    Finally, teams get contributions throughout the year from players outside their 18 starters. Last year, forwards outside the Sabres top 12 and D outside their top 6 contributed 20 goals, so I’m going to go out on a limb and say that will happen again.

    The team, as constituted above, can reasonably be expected to score 273 goals, which is 29 more than last year and would have been good for 10th in the NHL.

    There’s no guarantees, obviously - the above doesn’t account for devastating injuries or big breakout seasons. And there’s a new coach, which will mean a different system and different deployments. But there is nothing there that seems out of whack with what these players have produced before, the vast majority of them in similar roles.

    What have I missed?

    Thompson is the mother of all question marks. He needs to get aggressive.

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