blugold43
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Posts posted by blugold43
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On 3/29/2019 at 2:18 PM, PASabreFan said:
if you say so
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guys, thanks for the input. i will poll the group and I'm sure at least one of those options will be a hit!
hopefully we get a nice effort out of the team as well. i can't believe i haven't lost them, as we live in flyers/pens/caps country and all their friends get to actually enjoy watching their teams play. i must be doing something right.
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Don't laugh, but I'm spending actual money and time to take my 10, 8, 6 year old sons to their first sabre game on 3/29. Fortunately it is relatively little money, considering the stub hub cheap seats are down to 6$.
We're getting a room at the Marriott harbor center and looking for stuff to do near there the following day. any ideas? They want to have a meal at 716, but after that I'm a bit lost. Is the outdoor rink going to be open then?
I know the area around there looks completely different and i'm excited to see all the new development. I've not been to a Sabre home game since the goathead days.
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Not sure if anyone cares or will even find this interesting, but I kinda want to put this out there, anyway.
My wife and I went to a new dispensary today. It was 2 hours away and totally worth the trip. It was so nice to feel like we were actually getting medicine from a medical facility. Our old dispensary kinda felt like we were just getting pot from a bunch of stealth hippies who felt like they were pulling something over on the gub'ment.
In the past few weeks, I have watched my daughter hit herself in the head more than 1000 a day (I counted). It got so bad that we had to buy her 2 helmets, one for school and one for home, so she wouldn't concuss herself (something she did in February). While Autism is not yet on the list of conditions that Drs can prescribe MMJ for in NJ, we are "lucky" enough to get it for my daughter for her seizures. If we happen to get some off label benefits from it, well then fantastic.
In the past, I have had to spend days in Walter White conditions, basically trying to turn bags of weed into medicine, not knowing the potency or efficacy of what I had made. Today, on the way home, We gave her a single dose of pre-made, tested oil,… medicine.
She hit her head four times the rest of the day. Four.
We have hope again. It's a good day.
SwampD I am thrilled to read this, and I hope the effects continue. my heart goes out to you, as our worst days don't saound anything like what you're going through.
I am also very interested, as it sounds like this type of treatment might benefit my son as well. So, not really being the cannabis "type," I have some questions...
can you be more specific about what the medicine is? is it an oil produced from cannabis?
my son does not have seizures (any more), but one way he presents is severe anxiety about day-to-day stuff (school and social situations especially) that is really holding him back from learning. he also has an EATING DISORDER- stemming from the anxiety- that we just can't get a handle on. It is incredibly frustrating. he is in the 1st percentile for weight and has been for a long time. i am starting to think this (medical marijuana) in a path we want to look into.
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I'm no Dan fan, but this kid has some growing up to do.
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they should make the goal bigger
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Can you even give these tickets away ?
you can give them away to me if you have 6. thanks
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Any advice? What do you know about this process now that you wish you would have known before you did it for the first time?
I have never done this, but it has come to my attention that the only way I'm going to get my entire family of 6 to a Sabres game is if I procure the tickets at a substantial discount. After last night's collapse, it seems like this might be a good time to look into it.
What sites are used for this? I know about stubhub; are there are others? Any pitfalls to avoid? Thanks.
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Since the current playoff system started, the average point total to qualify for the payoffs (8 seed) is 95.7. So, a point pace where you earn 6 out of 10 (96 for the season) gives you a better-than 50/50 chance.
After 29 games, we should have 35 points to be on pace...we're 5 behind that, which is not nothing.
But a win vs. Carolina puts us only 4 points off the pace (32 points earned vs. 36 to be on playoff pace)...
Considering the number of "winnable" games coming up, this next stretch is absolutely crucial.
Cmon guys...
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Since we're on this topic, I want to know if anyone else here was at this show:
http://www.ac-dc.net/archives/review.php?date_id=1303
The last 2 guys who commented on this show had it right, which I know because I was there.
AC-DC were to open for UFO. They played their long terrific set, and then the intermission went on and on and on...something was obviously up. The venerable "Harvey" of Harvey and Corky came out to break he bad news...first to say "don't worry guys, they're gonna get here..." then a few minutes later to say "THEY'RE NOT COMING, BUT HOW A BOUT A 2ND SET OF AC-DC!?!?!"
Of course everyone goes bonkers and the boys absolutely KILLED it the second time around. To me this was the band at their absolute peak...less than a year before Bon died.
I've always hoped to run into someone else who was there that night. It was my first concert ever (I was in 8th grade) and still the most amazing concert memory I have.
If you are going tonight have a ball...I hope they play Riff Raff for you!
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His tepid response to Lucic cheapshotting Miller is how I will always remember him. Good riddance.
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1. dishwasher
2. stock boy (grocery)
3. gas pipeline installation/maintenence
4. omelet chef
5. bartender
6. cab driver
7. teacher
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Agreed, Ducky. Thought he was a reputed non drinker.
He clearly has other poisons.
Holy crap...if he is acting that way at 3am without a drop of alcohol in him, then there's no hope...
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You're awful sensitive of late. It wasnt a political comment. It was an observation of all of our hypocrisy.
you know Lemmy hated Trump, right?
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Couldn't agree more. No matter what you think of Kane, this seems like some grandstanding by the BPD. And, how does the camera just happen to be there?
what are you complaining about? at least they're not pumping him full of lead.
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I'm not one for false hope, but I do believe in good people. And Matty Mo is good people.
You people without kids and family might not appreciate this, but I'm willing to believe Moulson allowed himself to get soft because he was happy with his situation: big, lengthy contract, kids and wife happy at home, babysitter to the team's superstar...
It can happen without even recognizing it. He's no dummy and has a sense of honour. I'm willing to see if he can/has changed his habits and upped his game during the off season.
I think he can be still good for 20 goals the next few seasons if he puts the work in.
I totally get it and I hope you're right about the 20 goals! if we get 20 goals out of Moulson it's going to be a great season.
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Your choice of the word "let" is intriguing... Like the Islanders had control of the situation.
Many of the articles I read (some going back to 2015) indicated they didn't show that much interest in retaining him...or trying to negotiate a salary they thought they could afford. But it's just weird because the money was there all along. It's hard for me to believe the guy wearing an A on his jersey just told them 6 months ago not to bother trying to negotiate with him.
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Gotta be Leino. No better metaphor for the meandering suffering that pre-dated the tank.
I never really liked Connolly as the shameful default; that guy did some really special things for the team.
i agree...he had some great moments on a great Sabre team 10 years ago.
i voted for Leino, but the slug is a close 2nd.
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wish someone could explain why the Isles let him walk. I did a little googling and found an older column predictingOkposo would likely get 8million a year and Isles didn't want to commit that.
But he signed for 6million/yr, as we know, and his replacement signed for 5.5...same 7 year term.
Could they somehow see Ladd as an upgrade?
It's just weird. They can't use their cap as an excuse...they still have money left and they let the younger, better player go.
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It is clearly a sneaky-brilliant marketing ploy to penetrate the lucrative Central PA market. Unfortunately 9/26 is a Monday, so they won't get the 90-minute drive out of me.
How long before Russ farms out 5 home games a year to CRAPPY VALLEY?
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It is amazing how they cling to the bully myth after all these years, and how ugly it looks in today's game.
Two awful, vile head shots (yes, the hit on Orpik was pure filth too), followed by booing a seriously injured victim of one of them and throwing garbage at the other. And then the coup de grace...the flood of crap on the ice that was so bad it had to be penalized...happily resulting in another goal for Washington.
Thank god the Caps sent those azzholes home quiet, and I can't wait to send pictures of brooms around to all the Flyer fans I know on Thursday.
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I missed that. I did notice Girgs standing up for Risto during the same game. Girgs is no chump, but I'd like to rewatch what happened during the Neil plays. I would be very disappointed in him to let Neil get away with cheapshots on his watch and with his knowledge.
My opinion is somewhere between Blue's and Eastside's. I see the little things, but where is the production? He used to have it, but where is it now? My instinct is to blame Bylsma's system, but we also need to consider Girgs went from one of the top scoring options to #5-#6. He's being told to play a disciplined, physical, forechecking, get to the front of the net, create for your linemates type-game. He's being used like a rich man's Foligno.
I don't think he is close to his potential. He's a 25-30 goal guy and potential standout playoff performer IMO. The bright side is Bylsma is teaching him to be disiplined and efficient. The worry is that he is neutering him permanently. To use a corny term, maybe some birds are not meant to be caged.
I'm suspicious that Bylsma is behind his drop in production also...all the more reason to move him for a defenseman.
Or move Bylsma...
But I guess that's not what this thread's about.
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I don't think it's much of a stretch to suggest that most of us were expecting Zemgus to have a better season than he's had, and I don't think it's a stretch at all to say we collectively expected him to score more than 5 goals. The first part of this post I hope to explain the output, then the second part I'll have some numbers on his impact outside of goal scoring.
The stats:
Shooting Percentage
As a rookie he shot 7%, as a sophomore he shot 13%, and this year he's at 5.3%. His career average is 8.642.
Time on Ice
Last season he averaged 19:05 per game, this season he's down 4 full minutes to 15:05 per game. So, what minutes did he lose? He's down from 1:58 of PP time per game to 45 seconds per game, so about a 62% reduction in PP time. His ES time is down 1:41 per game. So of his lost ice time, nearly all of it has come in situations that he would be expected to be able to produce offense.
Shot Generation
Zemgus' shot generation has remained amazingly consistent throughout his young career. His shots per minute of ice time, starting with his rookie season:
2013: .11
2014: .104
2015: .105
Corsi% relative to team, forwards >300 ES minutes
2013: 2.1, 3rd on team trailing Larsson and...D'Agostini
2014: -3.6, 10th on team ahead of only Deslauriers and Kaleta --all hail Teds Nolans!
2015: 2.1, 4th on team behind Reinhart, Kane, and....Moulson (don't read too much into this one, Moulson's usage is drastically different than the others)
High Danger Scoring Chances per 60 minutes of ES ice time, team rank | HDSCF%, team rank
2013: 11.81, 3rd | 49%, 2nd
2014: 10.61, 4th | 40%, 8th
2015: 9.45, 8th | 46.42%, 11th
Zone Starts
Outside of his misguided stint as 3rd line center, he's actually starting a bit more frequently in the offensive zone relative to teammates than in years past, as he's been sheltered on Jack's wing rather than the all-situations center of last year. The difference is really quite small though, ~2 percentage points different. It's also worth noting the entire team is starting more in the offensive zone, because ya know, not tanking.
Teammates: 4 most common forwards at even strength, with minutes together
2013: Flynn (369), Ennis (317), Moulson (221), Hodgson (162)
2014: Ennis (548), Moulson (410), Stewart (220), Gionta (154)
2015: Eichel (228), Gionta (215), Moulson (195), Larsson (186)
My Conclusion
Some bad puck luck, an uncertain role (huge spread of teammates, shutdown role to top-6 winger to playing with AHL call-ups during injury times), and far lower offensive opportunity have combined to torpedo his offensive output, but his underlying numbers are still pretty good. His shot generation is the same as ever, and he's still one of our top possession players. Without touching anything else, his shooting percentage being his career average and his ES & PP ice time being that of last season, he'd have 11 goals in 63 games. Last year he had 15 goals in 61 games. That's not far off, and if his SH% was the same as last year, he'd have 16 goals this season. While he's generating about 1 less high danger chance every ~4 games, he's also on the ice for far fewer against--his overall play on this metric is arguably better than last season.
I think most of the decline in his offensive output can be attributed to a change in role, with a simply more talented roster pushing him down the lineup, and a sprinkling of blame to Bylsma for thinking he was Jordan Staal at the start of the season. His underlying numbers being the same (or in some cases better) points mostly to changing circumstances as the culprit for his "decline." In fact, I don't think he's declined at all. Perhaps a better way of looking at it is he has stagnated to some degree, but the notion that he has regressed or fallen off a cliff is not empirically supported, in my view.
What about non-scoring aspects of hockey? AKA does he make those he plays with better?
In short, yes. He makes every single teammate he plays with better in goal scoring, goal prevention, and possession. When apart, he also suffers less of a dropoff in these categories than his linemate. Hell, just look at how good he is with Eichel, and compare their stats together to the Kane-Eichel-Reinhart line everybody loved. Zemgus himself may never be an offensive powerhouse, but he looks to be a pretty valuable complementary piece.
This post is already long so rather than typing more, I'll post a pdf of my Excel spreadsheet and the with or without you (WOWY) stats for his 4 most common linemates. Semi-small sample warning applies because his most common linemates have spent more time with other players, but it's all we have to work with. All numbers at even strength (I don't have score-adjusted because Puckalytics does not yet have it implemented, and going to close-situation would cut the sample down even further. I felt including all data was for the best).
His reaction to Neil's multiple cheapshots on Eichel was positively Gaustadesque.
Love the effort you made to prove he's a quality player, but to me he's tradebait. I hope Murray uses this post to convince someone he's worth a top-3 defenseman. I'll be disappointed if he's still on the roster next fall.
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I wouldn't know a Taylor Swift song if it bumped me in the side of the head right now. However, I think I can recognize a number that will not be spending much time on Jack Eichel's wing...
Lehner unloads on Sabres fans, Buffalo media
in The Aud Club
Posted · Edited by blugold43
i think i was one of the last fans to give up on him...but then to find out he was drunk and high all year...well then honestly wgas what he says.
moreover why is everyone in buffalo so obsessed with what people outside the city say about us?
honestly if i was a pro football or hockey player i think i would talk crap about buffalo every once in awhile just to watch everyone go ballistic. what an inferiority complex the whole region has. it's hilarious how easily WNYers get triggered over it.