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fiftyone

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Posts posted by fiftyone

  1. 19 minutes ago, Thorny said:

    The math isn’t being fairly represented by breaking down each individual goal, this is what people misunderstand when it comes to math and sample sizes. 
     

    Say, for argument, UPL had only a 25% shot to make any one of the 6 saves. If you break it down individually, you can make a case for how realistically we couldn’t have expected a stop as he only had a 25% shot on each. But if you get *6* chances with 25% odds, looking from the perspective of the data set as a whole, one would be CORRECT to assume and predict that at least one will go our way. This is why I said the thing about: if the total against is high enough, there’s assuredly blame to go around for the goalie 
     

    Just because it’s very unlikely on any *one* spin that a roulette wheel comes up on #4, if you spin it 500 times you can expect it to land 4. 
     

    if it somehow didn’t, it would be a statistical anomaly, it wouldn’t be a case of “well what did you expect? Which one spin do you think should have hit?” No, it’s that, when the spins are all viewed in totality, the math changes 

    hope this makes sense 

    I get the math, and agree with the bolded.

    My point is that it's pretty easy to blame the goalie when you lose 6-5. UPL isn't the answer now and may never be and that's fine, but all goals aren't created equal and 4 of those tonight were no doubters, never had a chance. 

    To your point about the math.. had he made one of those saves and the sabres won 5-4, that really doesn't change much about his game tonight. They had too many high danger chances and scored on a bunch of them.

    • Like (+1) 1
  2. 46 minutes ago, Goldseatsaud said:

     

    Six goals on 25 shots

    Addressed by others, but look at each goal. Yeah the line is bad, but which of those do you want stopped? Maybe the first (though Samuelsson is just standing at the far post watching). Second and third are not on him. Maybe the 4th he could have controlled the rebound on the initial stuff better? Fifth no chance and the 6th we talked about.

    He wasn't good, but most of those are in the net regardless of who's tending it. 

  3. 31 minutes ago, dudacek said:

    I will say Portillo much more polished in front of a mike than Johnson.

    Importance of school to him came across very clearly, as did his willingness to compete with Levi or anyone else.

    Johnson, I thought was just plain awkward. He literally said he loves the organization and that his goal is to sign eventually, yet did so in such a manner that left people feeling it wasn’t an actual commitment.

    Both these guys had an opportunity to ease the minds of fans. I thought Johnson tried, ineffectively. Portillo wasn’t forced to answer and chose not to

    Agree, I dont know if it was nerves or immaturity or what, but Johnson didn't look or sound comfortable at all IMO.

  4. 2 hours ago, Thorny said:

    From a Sabres perspective, given what they were trying to accomplish re: the formerly-theirs, Jack Eichel asset, I’d argue they’ve already been “proven correct” when it comes to their decisions made handling the injury. Again, in context. 

    I don’t believe personally they can ever be proven “right” or “wrong” by how Jack responds to the surgery in the long term because frankly I think they’d have let Jack get the surgery in the scenario where they assume he returns to the ice a Sabre, ie, in the hypothetical situation the injury takes place where neither side is at odds. 

    The injury disconnect was a symptom of the broader struggle and not the other way around 

    Understand what you're saying but I don't agree here. 

    It's not all that uncommon for a player to "ask out," be it publicly or behind closed doors. Almost never does that player refuse to play. Are you saying that you think if the Sabres let Jack get his surgery and he became healthy, he would not have suited up for the Sabres?

  5. 10 minutes ago, JohnC said:

    This is an issue where it isn't so much about being right or wrong as it is about making judgments about the data you have on hand. Each side sought medical opinions from a variety of sources. And both sides used respective medical sources. And another issue is that the perspective of this particular player differed from the perspective of an organization. This medical conflict also had the additional complication that the player desperately wanted out. What it came down to is that the parties had different interests in a complicated medical situation. In the end each of the parties got a result that they can live with.  

    Agree that you can make the "correct" decision and still end up being wrong (hitting on 15 in blackjack vs a 10, for example). 

    Still, my question is around when it would be fair to litigate that decision from the Sabres perspective. Agree on everything else. 

    • Like (+1) 2
  6. Bit of a change of subject here but didn't want to start a new thread re: Jack.

    When do we think it'll be fair to decide whether or not the Sabres were "right" or "wrong" with their medical stance on Jack's surgery? Are they already wrong because he got his surgery and is playing now? Will it take some time to determine if this surgery does indeed cause him problems down the line?

    I'm not all that familiar with the differences of the two surgeries, but curious on thoughts here.

  7. 34 minutes ago, darksabre said:

    I'd like someone to give me a good reason why FDA approval is such a consequential yardstick. It's not like the FDA has never approved things that are bad for you...

    That's like saying "you still get sick even while vaccinated." Do you think we're better off with or without regulatory approval? Perfect is not the enemy of good.

  8. 38 minutes ago, SwampD said:

    I don’t think this is correct. I thought these vaccines went through the exact same testing, but all the stages were done concurrently. They didn’t have to wait for one stage to be completed before they started the next one. That’s why it was approved for use so quickly.

    If they went through the same testing concurrently, they would have been FDA approved and not emergency use. No?

    • Thanks (+1) 1
  9. 2 hours ago, PASabreFan said:

    Are you claiming that they didn't test the vaccine on humans before releasing it under emergency authorization?

    Of course not. I'm claiming (stating?) that there's a clear distinction between FDA approval and emergency use, and much of that distinction is based on the rigorous testing and trials process that these vaccines have not gone through. 

     

    • Thanks (+1) 1
  10. 1 hour ago, Doohickie said:

    I'm not.  That doubt has bled into the popular culture from anti-vaxxers.  I've gotten vaccines all my life, from the childhood ones to tetanus shots to yearly flu shots and I've never had a concern with the long term effects.  There is nothing about the Covid vaccine to indicate to me it is any different.  It's all just anti-vaxxer concerns.

    I think the difference here is that this is an experimental vaccine, where those were not. There's a reason that there is a rigorous testing and trials process for vaccines, and this one did not go through that. I think many people who have taken more thoroughly vetted vaccines in the past who are not taking this one will point to that. 

  11. 5 minutes ago, Curt said:

    I think you (me too I guess) just care about it more than a lot of fans.

    If someone doesn’t care that much, why would they spend their time on it when the team is bad and it’s not that much fun?  They aren’t pretending to not care.  They just really don’t care.  When it’s good, it’s fun for them and they participate.  When it’s bad, it’s not and they don’t bother.  They find  more enjoyable things to do.

    That's fair I guess, I just don't know how to be a sports fan that way.

    And again, losing interest in the (Sabres) wasn't really my target -- it was choosing another team to root for and then coming back to the Sabres. Semantics, maybe.

  12. 3 minutes ago, Curt said:

    This is silly, and definitely not an idea that anyone actually associated with the business would remotely agree with.  It’s an entertainment business.  People make choices about how to invest their time and money.

    “If you don’t like this product when it’s *****, don’t bother supporting it when it’s good.”

    Can’t get in line with that line of thought.

    I'm not talking about deciding to not pay money to see the product (go to games, buy jerseys, even spend large amounts of time to watch). That certainly happens and I can sympathize, I do it too.

    But to go root for another team when yours is struggling, then come back when it's not is a foreign concept to me. That's how I took the scenario that the OP laid out, and that's why my original comment discussed sticking with one team as opposed to changing teams.

    • Like (+1) 1
  13. 1 hour ago, Weave said:

    Get over yourself.  There is nothing serious about being a Sabres fan.  It is an entertainment source.  Nothing more.  It isn't like you're walking away from being a made man or quitting the Hell's Angels.

    You're right, I probably worded that poorly.

    It doesn't bother me any if people treat sports and their teams that way. It just feels a lot less fulfilling to me if you only participate in the ups and pretend like you don't care on the downs. How good can the ups really be if you view it like that?

     

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