Sabre stock: who are your risers and fallers this year?

[dudacek]

Players I worry could regress:

• Mule was absolutely fantastic last year and I think it was real. Don't see the points being repeated though and I still don't trust his health.
• Josh Doan might struggle transitioning from "happy to get an opportunity" to "core player".
• UPL doesn't get enough credit for how steady he was last year. Probably because it was 35 games and we saw what came before
• Love Alex Lyon, but he's not going to keep guessing the right way again all season

 

Players I think could take a step:

• Can you imagine if we get the post-Christmas Dahlin for an entire year?
• Owen Power has elite tools and 300 games under his belt. The light bulb has come on.
• The Benson train is only going to gain momentum. He should cement his status as a face of the Sabres around the league
• Noah Östlund just gets hockey. Always loved his game and he looks ready.

 

Players I'm unsure about

• The stars seem aligned for a Quinn breakout but I just see too much "almost" in his game..
• I firmly believe Josh Norris has got to stay healthy one year. Maybe this year?
• I'm skeptical of the way Colten Ellis plays goal, but not of his story. He's looked good.

[Eleven]

Just briefly, I agree that Power seems to have arrived.  Agree on Benson.  Disagree on Doan; I think he's going to fit in just fine.  And Helenius will benefit from his BFF relationship with Benson and score 20 this year.

[LGR4GM]

1 hour ago, Eleven said:

Just briefly, I agree that Power seems to have arrived.  Agree on Benson.  Disagree on Doan; I think he's going to fit in just fine.  And Helenius will benefit from his BFF relationship with Benson and score 20 this year.

I don't think Helenius will get enough ice time to score 20 this year. Maybe I will be wrong. 

[Eleven]

Just now, LGR4GM said:

I don't think Helenius will get enough ice time to score 20 this year. Maybe I will be wrong. 

Someone will get injured.

[LGR4GM]

3 minutes ago, Eleven said:

Someone will get injured.

it's not about games it is about pp TOI and 5v5 TOI. Helenius won't get enough of either as a rookie under Ruff to get to 20g unless he has a idk, 17+sh%. He just won't have enough time to shoot. 

[Eleven]

Just now, LGR4GM said:

it's not about games it is about pp TOI and 5v5 TOI. Helenius won't get enough of either as a rookie under Ruff to get to 20g unless he has a idk, 17+sh%. He just won't have enough time to shoot. 

I believe you're going to be right, but I can't resist the opportunity for a Sabrespace charity bet!  The over-under is 19.5.  If I lose (I read your post and I might), $50 to your charity; if I win, $50 to FeedMoreWNY, how's that for you?

[LGR4GM]

11 minutes ago, Eleven said:

I believe you're going to be right, but I can't resist the opportunity for a Sabrespace charity bet!  The over-under is 19.5.  If I lose (I read your post and I might), $50 to your charity; if I win, $50 to FeedMoreWNY, how's that for you?

Sounds fine, make sure you remember it in April. 

[Eleven]

9 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Sounds fine, make sure you remember it in April. 

Mark it down!  What's your cause?  (or if you don't want to say, ok)

Edited September 30 by Eleven

[JohnC]

@Pimlach is going to be less than shocked when I predict that Quinn and Power are going to be risers in this poll. I'm very comfortable in saying that Quinn is going to be a 30 plus goal scorer this season. And it will not be surprising to me that Power will elevate his game and continue to get better and be an instrumental player for us. I also predict that @Pimlach is going to respond to this post with a snarky response. 😎 

[mjd1001]

12 minutes ago, JohnC said:

@Pimlach is going to be less than shocked when I predict that Quinn and Power are going to be risers in this poll. I'm very comfortable in saying that Quinn is going to be a 30 plus goal scorer this season. And it will not be surprising to me that Power will elevate his game and continue to get better and be an instrumental player for us. I also predict that @Pimlach is going to respond to this post with a snarky response. 😎 

I always take the other side on Quinn.  I could POTENTIALLY see him being a 30 goal scorer, but the one thing standing in the way of that is where is he going to get the shots from?  I really need to see him be able to improve his ability to generate his own shot.

On the other hand I still think he is well below average defensively. He was last year. Some said in the playoffs last year he took a step up but I didn't see it. The one thing that may work for him is his skating got better last year. He LOOKED like he skated better and his skating metrics/measurables backed that up. I'm hoping his defensive play will get better if he is more comfortable/faster skating now after fully recovering from his injury a couple years ago where it is not easier for him to get back into the play.

The same with me with Quinn over the last 2 seasons as now. I'm skeptical, but hopeful at the same time.

[JohnC]

9 minutes ago, mjd1001 said:

I always take the other side on Quinn.  I could POTENTIALLY see him being a 30 goal scorer, but the one thing standing in the way of that is where is he going to get the shots from?  I really need to see him be able to improve his ability to generate his own shot.

On the other hand I still think he is well below average defensively. He was last year. Some said in the playoffs last year he took a step up but I didn't see it. The one thing that may work for him is his skating got better last year. He LOOKED like he skated better and his skating metrics/measurables backed that up. I'm hoping his defensive play will get better if he is more comfortable/faster skating now after fully recovering from his injury a couple years ago where it is not easier for him to get back into the play.

The same with me with Quinn over the last 2 seasons as now. I'm skeptical, but hopeful at the same time.

Last season, Quinn had plenty of quality opportunities to score but instead missed the net. If his accuracy improves and is more aggressive in shooting instead of deferring with a pass, he should meet my goal expectations. Needless to say, my expectations on him are higher than most here. We will just have to wait to see how things unfold for him. 

[mjd1001]

20 minutes ago, JohnC said:

Last season, Quinn had plenty of quality opportunities to score but instead missed the net. If his accuracy improves and is more aggressive in shooting instead of deferring with a pass, he should meet my goal expectations. Needless to say, my expectations on him are higher than most here. We will just have to wait to see how things unfold for him. 

Last year he had 191 shots, and shot 10.8%.

His career high shooting percentage for a season is 16.1.....he averages 11.8.

If he could improve to 220 shots (same overall quality as last year, maybe just bumping him up with more ice time on the PP does that), and shoot even 12.5%, that gets him to 27-28 goals.  That should easily be within the realm of possibility if he again plays all 82 games.  Getting over 30?  A good bounce here, a deflection there, and that just might do it.

[GASabresIUFAN]

This thread is more progress or regress thread.

 Progress

1) 2 key oft injured players from last year have healthy (ier) seasons and easily make up for most of the loss of Tuch on their own in Kulich and Norris.  They gave us a total of 56 games between them last year with 16 goals and 23 assists.  I’m expecting (hoping) for 130+ games, 45+ goals and 50+ assists.  

2) Ellis - I think Lyon struggles this season, Ellis becomes the backup and his play forces more starts (30 or so).

3) Benson hits 60 points this season

4) Östlund puts up 50 points

5) Crevier hits 20 minutes a night

6) Quinn - contract year = big numbers.  30 goals?

Regress

1) Samuelsson - almost impossible for him to match last season, but that’s not say he won’t be solid again just don’t expect 13 goals again.

2) McLeod - diminished role leads to less points

3) Lyon - struggles to match last season, loses role to Ellis and gets traded before the deadline.

Others to watch

1) Helenius - JJP and Quinn put up 30-35 pts.  If Helenius exceeds this level that will be a huge bonus

2) UPL - can he repeat his RS play? I think he can, but playoffs performance is another question.

3) Zellweger - smaller D needs to come up big.

 

Edited September 30 by GASabresIUFAN

[Pimlach]

1 hour ago, JohnC said:

@Pimlach is going to be less than shocked when I predict that Quinn and Power are going to be risers in this poll. I'm very comfortable in saying that Quinn is going to be a 30 plus goal scorer this season. And it will not be surprising to me that Power will elevate his game and continue to get better and be an instrumental player for us. I also predict that @Pimlach is going to respond to this post with a snarky response. 😎 

JohnC I must say I am not shocked by this prediction by you.  If nothing else you have been consistent. 

I hope you are correct.  I want you to be correct.  Quinn scoring 30 and playing a solid 2-way is a must if this team is going to be playoff caliber  

I feel stronger about Power taking that step than I do Quinn.  With the right partner Power could put up more numbers, similar to Byram   

I will be watching win or lose. 

[mjd1001]

1 hour ago, Pimlach said:

JohnC I must say I am not shocked by this prediction by you.  If nothing else you have been consistent. 

I hope you are correct.  I want you to be correct.  Quinn scoring 30 and playing a solid 2-way is a must if this team is going to be playoff caliber  

I feel stronger about Power taking that step than I do Quinn.  With the right partner Power could put up more numbers, similar to Byram   

I will be watching win or lose. 

I'm with you on Power.

As a matter of fact, I think Power has been taking those '1/2 steps' that people haven't really noticed for the last 2 years.  Some people just got so used to Power making mistakes in the past, that when a mistake was made on the ice and he was out there, he was blamed for it.

I remember a play early last season where the Sabres allowed a goal, and I comment it on it in the GDT.  As the puck came into the defensive zone, Doan and McLeod both made a bad play on the zone entry, Power was the one in postiion, but everyone was so used to 'blaming' Power, he was roasted on the board after the goal was scored.

The reason I remember that play so well is 2 forward made big mistakes (Doan and McLeod) and not a single person mentioned them, but Power did exactly what I would want him to do being hung out to dry, but on the 3 second replay of the goal it looked like he 'didn't do anything'.

Thats a long example of saying that I think Power has been on a somewhat slow, but steady path to becoming very sound defensively, many just haven't seen it yet.  And if he continues on that path, he's already 'good' and his next 1/2 step gets him to 'very good'.

 

I found the post of the play..again, this is just one example of how Power has been getting better and it hasn't been noticed (page 11 of that thread, 3rd post down if anyone really cares enough to look it up): 

 

Edited September 30 by mjd1001

[Taro T]

3 hours ago, mjd1001 said:

I always take the other side on Quinn.  I could POTENTIALLY see him being a 30 goal scorer, but the one thing standing in the way of that is where is he going to get the shots from?  I really need to see him be able to improve his ability to generate his own shot.

On the other hand I still think he is well below average defensively. He was last year. Some said in the playoffs last year he took a step up but I didn't see it. The one thing that may work for him is his skating got better last year. He LOOKED like he skated better and his skating metrics/measurables backed that up. I'm hoping his defensive play will get better if he is more comfortable/faster skating now after fully recovering from his injury a couple years ago where it is not easier for him to get back into the play.

The same with me with Quinn over the last 2 seasons as now. I'm skeptical, but hopeful at the same time.

Yeah, Quinn and UPL both LOOK like they could be really good, but somehow, when the pressure is on, they come up small in the moment.

Hope they both figure it out; if they could, the Sabres won't be a bubble team trying to keep from falling out but a contender looking to keep the division.  But, am expecting the Sabres to be a bubble team but on the right side of the bubble.

[Doohickie]

3 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

2) McLeod - diminished role leads to less points

He's one of the guys I expect to fill the Tuch void.

[SABRES 0311]

Benson better hit 20 at this point.

Quinn should hit 25.

I think Doan will do fine this year. No reason he can’t get 25 on that line.

Dahlin I could see adding to his production. He looked like he was activating more in offensive zone during preseason.

 

Muel probably won’t repeat his production from last year.

Lyon and UPL might not repeat last year’s performances.

I don’t see a lot of production for Helenius in his first full season on the third line.

 

Who knows with Norris. He might score a ton or the wind might blow and he gets injured.

Zellweger and Crevier kind of looked capable on the offensive side but we’ll see.

 

[Doohickie]

3 hours ago, Pimlach said:

I feel stronger about Power taking that step than I do Quinn.  With the right partner Power could put up more numbers, similar to Byram   

I think the surprise on defense is going to be how good Crevier will be.  Lindy will slot him up and down in the pairs and he'll turn to to be a good complementary piece to an offensive minded Dman while chipping in a few points himself.

[Pimlach]

11 minutes ago, Doohickie said:

I think the surprise on defense is going to be how good Crevier will be.  Lindy will slot him up and down in the pairs and he'll turn to to be a good complementary piece to an offensive minded Dman while chipping in a few points himself.

I hope he becomes into a solid 4.  He has speed and a hard shot, does he play with a physical edge?  

[Slack_in_MA]

Risers: Östlund and Helenius

Fallers: Zucker. I think he’s getting old and will be injured/gimpy more often than not.

Edit: add goaltending generically to the Fallers category.

Edited October 1 by Slack_in_MA

[pi2000]

Risers:  Norris, Quinn, Ellis
Fallers:  Lyon, Tage, McLeod

Norris I think finally stays healthy and Quinn pots 30.   Ellis takes another step and stays healthy.

Lyon regresses to his mean and Tage struggles to find the net.   McLeod has a quiet start and gets moved at some point.
 

[Fansince70]

56 minutes ago, Pimlach said:

I hope he becomes into a solid 4.  He has speed and a hard shot, does he play with a physical edge?  

He's 6'8" and yes he does.  There's a YouTube video of him plastering Tom Wilson last year.  Once Mule is healthy, that's a heckuva top 4.  

[GoPuckYourself]

My risers:
I think Benson is going to turn into a superstart this season.

Noah Östlund was incredible in the playoffs, if he can stay healthy then they sky's the limit.

Josh Doan is now going to be the man on most likely the 2nd line, I think he has the skill/size combo to take it to the next level.

Fallers:

I still think UPL is a backup but he handled his own last year until it unraveled at the worst possible time, he is who he is at this point.

Mule played out of his mind last season but to think he can repeat that again is probably hopium, he is already banged up and might not play already which isn't a good sign. 

 

[Doohickie]

2 hours ago, Fansince70 said:

He's 6'8" and yes he does.  There's a YouTube video of him plastering Tom Wilson last year.  Once Mule is healthy, that's a heckuva top 4.  

It's funny how everyone assumed Zellweger would be Power's partner and now that's shifting.