Athletic: Sabres 1 of 6 teams likely to regress

[dudacek]

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/7623275/2026/09/24/nhl-2026-27-season-teams-backward/
 

Unsustainable shooting and save percentages cited as the main reasons.

This is not a model-based piece, it’s an opinion article based on factors that usually point to regression.

The author actually generally likes the Sabres and thinks they can be a 100-point team.

[shrader]

Was it the top 6 teams in the league last year?

[LGR4GM]

Seems reasonable. Really depends on that GT question in my mind. If Buffalo can even edge up a few teams in shot suppression it would go a long way. 

[tom webster]

Just now, dudacek said:

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/7623275/2026/09/24/nhl-2026-27-season-teams-backward/
 

Unsustainable shooting and save percentages cited as the main reasons.

This is not a model-based piece, it’s an opinion article based on factors that usually point to regression.

The author actually generally likes the Sabres and thinks they can be a 100-point team.

Buffalo will be low in all these type of models because of the above stated regression points plus their reliance on unproven youth.

Of course, all of these metrics come with the proviso that “the exception proves the rule,” and I believe there is a better then fifty/fifty chance that Buffalo’s one of the exceptions while also understanding that I might be wrong.

 

[dudacek]

I’ll admit it’s weird that I am scared to death of SV% regression and have no worries whatsoever about shooting percentage.

 

[mjd1001]

I think the Sabres can maintain their shooting percentage. I think the talent on this team is 'above average' when it comes to shooting.  It is the Save percentage I have doubts that they can maintain. I'd actually be surprised if their shooting percentage had a large drop.

Can they get another year of top 5 goaltending in the league? Its possible I guess, but I don't think these goaltenders ARE top 5 goalies (none of them), so even if you got it another year, its not going to maintain itself forever. This team has to get better at generating chances and limiting chances against. That is the 'meat-and-potatoes' of the NHL and the Sabres are average/middle-of-the-road at it.

Nothing new here, but losing Tuch and Byram hurts this aspect of the team, but maybe it doens't hurt them THAT much.  The key is, in the VERY near future can a young core of Doan, Benson, Helenius, Östlund...and I guess (Ugh) Quinn...can they become BETTER at the possession game, can they become BETTER and 'tilting the ice' in the Sabres favor, than the minutes they are taking away from what was here last year and previous years?

Edited September 24 by mjd1001

[dudacek]

10 minutes ago, mjd1001 said:

I think the Sabres can maintain their shooting percentage. I think the talent on this team is 'above average' when it comes to shooting.  It is the Save percentage I have doubts that they can maintain. I'd actually be surprised if their shooting percentage had a large drop.

Can they get another year of top 5 goaltending in the league? Its possible I guess, but I don't think these goaltenders ARE top 5 goalies (none of them), so even if you got it another year, its not going to maintain itself forever. This team has to get better at generating chances and limiting chances against. That is the 'meat-and-potatoes' of the NHL and the Sabres are average/middle-of-the-road at it.

Nothing new here, but losing Tuch and Byram hurts this aspect of the team, but maybe it doens't hurt them THAT much.  The key is, in the VERY near future can a young core of Doan, Benson, Helenius, Östlund...and I guess (Ugh) Quinn...can they become BETTER at the possession game, can they become BETTER and 'tilting the ice' in the Sabres favor, than the minutes they are taking away from what was here last year and previous years?

I think what is underrated a bit about the Sabres is the talent level of its secondary and tertiary players.

The short answer to your question is “yes, they can”.

Guys like Östlund and Zellweger are far more skilled than the mid-roster guys lining up opposite them.

The question is does the team have the structure, fitness and work ethic to capitalize on those skill mismatches the way they did after December?

[PASabreFan]

52 minutes ago, dudacek said:

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/7623275/2026/09/24/nhl-2026-27-season-teams-backward/
 

Unsustainable shooting and save percentages cited as the main reasons.

This is not a model-based piece, it’s an opinion article based on factors that usually point to regression.

The author actually generally likes the Sabres and thinks they can be a 100-point team.

And Kramer CAN install the carpeted levels.

Let the season begin, Jesus.

[Big Guava]

1 hour ago, tom webster said:

Buffalo will be low in all these type of models because of the above stated regression points plus their reliance on unproven youth.

Of course, all of these metrics come with the proviso that “the exception proves the rule,” and I believe there is a better then fifty/fifty chance that Buffalo’s one of the exceptions while also understanding that I might be wrong.

 

And what happens if the youth accelerates them rather than slows them down?

[Eleven]

26 minutes ago, Big Guava said:

And what happens if the youth accelerates them rather than slows them down?

Then the opinion piece is likely to be wrong.

[Doohickie]

I want the world to not believe in the Sabres and stoke that "us against the world" attitude in the dressing room.

[DarthEbriate]

1 hour ago, Big Guava said:

And what happens if the youth accelerates them rather than slows them down?

 

The youth getting uppity again?

[PromoTheRobot]

4 hours ago, Big Guava said:

And what happens if the youth accelerates them rather than slows them down?

It's easier to dock points for the loss of Tuch and Byram that it is to scout and assess the talent and potential of the kids. And two have significant NHL experience already.

[Nacho Libre]

[PASabreFan]

Sports gambling must be losing a lot of money, innit?

[R_Dudley]

7 hours ago, dudacek said:

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/7623275/2026/09/24/nhl-2026-27-season-teams-backward/
 

Unsustainable shooting and save percentages cited as the main reasons.

This is not a model-based piece, it’s an opinion article based on factors that usually point to regression.

The author actually generally likes the Sabres and thinks they can be a 100-point team.

Okay, this is right up there with the feeling I had when I learned Santa Claus wasn't real but then I found out about old St Nick played by one of my uncles.

I can take 100 Pts = Playoff's.  ☺️

[Taro T]

9 hours ago, dudacek said:

I’ll admit it’s weird that I am scared to death of SV% regression and have no worries whatsoever about shooting percentage.

 

IF shooting percentage drops, expect it will be accompanied by a corresponding increase in overall shots.  The Sabres REALLY tend to try to snipe corners, so a LOT of their misses (and this could change a bit with the poster boy for this Alex Tuch no longer being a Sabre) don't even count as shots.  But they do count as attempted shots.

Getting a higher %age of shots on net will likely be due to not coming as closely to the corner, so the goalie likely would end up getting a piece of a greater percentage of the shots than they currently get a piece of.

[Dogness]

If these writers knew any more than us they'd be pulling down 10 million a season as GM's in the league. There are three possible outcomes here. Sabres are better. Sabres are the same. Sabres are worse. Pick one. Pretend you know what you're talking about. Hope your right. Puff your chest out if you guess right. Color me less than impressed.

[GASabresIUFAN]

On 9/24/2026 at 8:58 PM, Dogness said:

If these writers knew any more than us they'd be pulling down 10 million a season as GM's in the league. There are three possible outcomes here. Sabres are better. Sabres are the same. Sabres are worse. Pick one. Pretend you know what you're talking about. Hope your right. Puff your chest out if you guess right. Color me less than impressed.

They’re “journalists”, since when did they care about being right?

[Gatorman0519]

No doubt. Losing two key players and not fixing the goaltending are big question marks. We certainly didn’t improve. 

[Dogness]

On 9/26/2026 at 5:28 PM, Gatorman0519 said:

No doubt. Losing two key players and not fixing the goaltending are big question marks. We certainly didn’t improve. 

Plenty of reason for skepticism but we don't know if we'll be better, worse, or the same. I'm glad Jarmo didn't make a trade for the sake of making a trade. I think counting on internal improvement from a young team that probably isn't winning it all this year is the best play.

[krakensabr56390]

22 minutes ago, Dogness said:

Plenty of reason for skepticism but we don't know if we'll be better, worse, or the same. I'm glad Jarmo didn't make a trade for the sake of making a trade. I think counting on internal improvement from a young team that probably isn't winning it all this year is the best play.

Our goaltending was top 5 in the league last year there’s nothing to fix unless it falls off the wagon ….

[LGR4GM]

 

 

[Gatorman0519]

On 9/28/2026 at 12:53 PM, krakensabr56390 said:

Our goaltending was top 5 in the league last year there’s nothing to fix unless it falls off the wagon ….

Smoke and mirrors. Stat lines don’t always give the whole of truth. Goaltending costed us the MTL series ultimately. 

Edited September 29 by Gatorman0519

[mjd1001]

22 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

 

 

I'd give this 10 thumbs up if I could. You want to be a consistently good team? Be in the upper right part of this chart.  Goaltending can give you a good year or two if you aren't there, but its likely not going to make you a consistent, year after year contender, unless you have the guy who is in the vezina conversation for the next 5 years.

The Sabres were good last year because of CAREER years out of their goaltending.  If that doesn't happen again (I don't think its likely), then they have to be a BETTER team at generating chances and eliminating chances against (for stat guys, Expected goals for vs expected goals against is the best way to measure that).

That is why the young guys can't just 'take the place' of Tuch and Byram, eventually the team has to be BETTER than it was, even better than last year, at generating those quality chances and eliminated the chances against. Last year, they were an average-to-slightly-above average team of skaters in front of very good goaltending.