Östlund 8 year extension

[mjd1001]

13 minutes ago, Pimlach said:

Fair, they are banking on a solid 2 way top 9 at player.  IF he doesn't produce for some reason, then they are holding the bag on the contract.  From what we have seen but the risks are pretty low, but not zero.  

Just what kind of risk are they taking?

I always like to look at the mid-way mark of the deal (in this case years 4-5) and see what percentage of the cap (or projected cap) that is.

It looks like at the mid-way part of the deal it'll be around 4.6% of the cap.  

Now, most of us are famaliar with Salaries last year based on last years cap.  4.6% of last years cap would have been $4.4m per year.

Again, a lot of math (albeit basic math), but what type of player does he have to turn out to be...that when he is 27 years old, hes making the equivilant of $4.4m in last years cap.  With  him scoring at a 15g, 38 point pace (82 games last year) while only playing 14 minutes per game last year....he might have already been worth close to that number without getting much better if you think his 2 way game is pretty good.

I guess my point is..if he never turn out to be anymore than a 15-18 goal, 40 assist guy (hes almost there already) with solid defensive play, that might be worth the deal anyway at center.

[Pimlach]

Just now, mjd1001 said:

Just what kind of risk are they taking?

I always like to look at the mid-way mark of the deal (in this case years 4-5) and see what percentage of the cap (or projected cap) that is.

It looks like at the mid-way part of the deal it'll be around 4.6% of the cap.  

Now, most of us are famaliar with Salaries last year based on last years cap.  4.6% of last years cap would have been $4.4m per year.

Again, a lot of math (albeit basic math), but what type of player does he have to turn out to be...that when he is 27 years old, hes making the equivilant of $4.4m in last years cap.  With  him scoring at a 15g, 38 point pace (82 games last year) while only playing 14 minutes per game last year....he might have already been worth close to that number without getting much better if you think his 2 way game is pretty good.

I guess my point is..if he never turn out to be anymore than a 15-18 goal, 40 assist guy (hes almost there already) with solid defensive play, that might be worth the deal anyway at center.

As I stated, a low one.  

5 minutes ago, JohnC said:

Setting aside our playoff season and run, last season was important from a young player evaluation standpoint. The organization was able see players such as Östlund and Helenius play. It was evident that stepping up to the NHL from the AHL they were not out of place in the higher league. With prospects, you never really know until they are exposed to playing against NHL men. That's why I'm excited about players such as Kulich, Helenius and Östlund. The glimmer that we got of them showed promise for this trio. That's why I have become so obstinate in not including any of them in a trade deal for Helly. 

I think you have articulated your position enough times that we all understand.   

[SJSabres Fan]

3 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Wow.  Shocked.  I guess Östlund is making the roster this year.  (If that was ever in doubt). 
 

Should we now assume that McLoud is on the trade block?

So funny, I can remember when we would have taken anybody off the corner to play center…now we’re bursting at the seams with centers!

[Ctaeth]

I love Östlund's game.  I've said so a bunch of times and im excited to have him long term.  Especially if the guys who see his everyday habits feel he is someone that we can trust enough to sign for 8 years.  That is definitely exciting.

But it does feel like we are approaching critical mass of injury prone players on this roster.  

[kas23]

I remember when he was drafted. A lot of teeth gnashing. Back when he was 165 lbs wet. Who had this on their bingo card back then? I didn’t. 

[Nacho Libre]

Reaction was pretty positive actually. Not eveything needs to be retroactively meme-ified

a lot of it looked like this:

On 7/7/2022 at 8:12 PM, LGR4GM said:

Interesting pick, very skilled player with excellent skating and very smart passing skills.

 

Interesting, indeed 

[Doohickie]

2 hours ago, Rasmus_ said:

Makes sense and also gets you ahead of impact years.  Nothing wrong with getting this done early and getting ahead of the potential RFA crunch.  Great contract for the Sabres, as long as he continues to develop offensively. He'll have more opportunities heading into next season. Just stay healthy Noah.

It occurs to me that when he's in his prime he'll be in a similar situation as Tuch- if he works out at all decently, the last half of that contract he'll be severely underpaid and looking for a big payday.

[shrader]

7 minutes ago, kas23 said:

I remember when he was drafted. A lot of teeth gnashing. Back when he was 165 lbs wet. Who had this on their bingo card back then? I didn’t. 

Hell, there was at least one person constantly labeling him a bust before he even crossed the ocean. 

[Doohickie]

Just now, Nacho Libre said:

On 7/7/2022 at 8:12 PM, LGR4GM said:

Interesting pick, very skilled player with excellent skating and very smart passing skills.

Interesting, indeed 

The Hockey Guy did a 2022 redraft (which I generally think are dumb, but the Sabres had 3 first round picks in 2022).  He had Savoie going much lower than we drafted him, and Östlund and Kulich both being drafted ahead of their actual slots (i.e., the Sabres didn't get any of those three).

Savoie's doing okay with EDM but it still remains to be seen which of the three has the highest ceiling.  Bottom line:  The Sabres "won" the later portion of Round 1 in 2022.

[JohnC]

33 minutes ago, Pimlach said:

As I stated, a low one.  

I think you have articulated your position enough times that we all understand.   

Are you suggesting that I’m not subtle and discreet on this issue? I’m 😳 shocked! 😎

[Nacho Libre]

Just now, Doohickie said:

The Hockey Guy did a 2022 redraft (which I generally think are dumb, but the Sabres had 3 first round picks in 2022).  He had Savoie going much lower than we drafted him, and Östlund and Kulich both being drafted ahead of their actual slots (i.e., the Sabres didn't get any of those three).

Savoie's doing okay with EDM but it still remains to be seen which of the three has the highest ceiling.  Bottom line:  The Sabres "won" the later portion of Round 1 in 2022.

Biggest win was using Savoie to get McLeod which helped aid a turning point 

[shrader]

Just now, JohnC said:

Are you suggesting that I’m not subtle and discreet on this issue? I’m 😳 shocked! 😎

This issue?

[Doohickie]

3 minutes ago, Nacho Libre said:

Biggest win was using Savoie to get McLeod which helped aid a turning point 

💯

[steveoath]

Now sign his Umlaut and get it on the jersey. 

[JohnC]

22 minutes ago, shrader said:

This issue?

Not willing to deal trio of young players in a deal for Helly.

[Nacho Libre]

3 minutes ago, JohnC said:

Not willing to deal trio of young players in a deal for Helly.

[Big Guava]

Brilliant contractual move...essentially the Sabres are making it so that even if they are "wrong" about a player, they will be way less "wrong" than they otherwise would be and his contract is still tradable. 

Plus is means they can bat a much lower percentage for the same dollar amounts other teams are working under.

Edited September 14 by Big Guava

[Night Train]

So I'll go out on a limb and predict he's not leaving in some trade package. 

 

 

Great passer. He should be paired with guys who can finish. He'll put the puck on the stick and get a few himself. Has to work on getting back quicker.

I understand building a core. I get the cap stuff.  He really showed a lot more last season. 

[msw2112]

I like this deal.  Östlund, to me, has shown more at this point than Power and Samuelsson did when they signed their deals, both of which (along with Thompson's) are looking very good right now.  The kid has offensive skill, grit, and plays a 200 foot game.  He's still young and his body will develop and get physically stronger with both age and time in a NHL weight room.  Injuries are the only thing that could turn this into a bad contract, but it's a worthy risk. 

They're locking up another core piece at a reasonable price.  Östlund, Doan, and Benson are all the kind of young players that a successful team should project to be part of its long-term core and that are worth gambling on and paying early.  These are the types of players who have skill, but also the "compete" level necessary to be a successful NHL player, particularly in the playoffs.  These are the types of players the team has lacked for years.  They also want to "be here" versus Byram, who I like as a player, but he preferred a) getting his big payday; and b) being considered a "#1" defenseman higher priorities than remaining a Sabre and helping the current Sabres team get to the Stanley Cup.  I don't fault or blame Byram, as those are reasonable choices, plus, he already has a Cup, but his goals and priorities no longer aligned with the Sabres' so it made sense to deal him.  Plus, they got a huge haul in return, so it worked out well for the Sabres.

Edited September 14 by msw2112

[The Jokeman]

2 hours ago, PerreaultForever said:

I agree with that. It's a leap of faith I wouldn't have taken yet but it might work out. This is the money the league is tossing around now as we've seen with other contracts so I guess that's the going rate but I just think in this case it's a little premature. 

(Remember when KA didn't want to pay Peterka and we all popped our eyes wide open over the Utah overpay? Things have changed fast)

Only because Doan stepped up, tbh I thought Kesserling was the best play in the trade in terms of value. Yes, he proved me wrong yet 1 year does not define a player as we've seen in guys like Cozens in years past. Not wishing that on Doan of course cuz I bought in to him in the playoffs. I just hope we live him paired with Benson in 2026 and beyond.

[Fansince70]

4 hours ago, dudacek said:

I think it’s in the “wagon goes west” embedded video for last spring.

Just saw the quick Sabres video of Östlund announcing his deal.

Kid looks so much thicker than he was 4 years ago when we drafted him.

 

[Dogness]

2 hours ago, Nacho Libre said:

Biggest win was using Savoie to get McLeod which helped aid a turning point 

Great trade by Adams.

[Nacho Libre]

3 minutes ago, Dogness said:

Great trade by Adams.

Definitely, loved this one, said so at the time. 

If Adams had flexed that muscle far more often, he might still have a job 

[French Collection]

Talk about a commitment.

I like Östlund and his all around game. There are not many playmakers in the top 9 and he could use this skill to help out the PP and set the table for some of the snipers. He’s not really gritty but he doesn’t take s**t either. He will do what is necessary to make a play and seems like a team player.

I believe he is still on his ELC this year so the big $$ kick in next season, which will be a smaller percentage of the cap. The money being thrown around to young, unproven guys is a result of Anaheim’s mess. The teams that can identify talent early and lock it up at reasonable rates will have money to pay for mercenaries when that need arises.
 

I hope Noah turns into a solid 2/3C as that contract would be a steal. I also hope some of these young guys develop into first liners because it is hard to win it all with a bunch of middle six players. I think Benson will get there and Helenius can join him. I can see Östlund feeding Kulich on a line at some point.

Leo Carlsson will be a 1C and produce more than Östlund but the Sabres may get more than half of that production for almost 1/3 of the price.

[dudacek]

16 minutes ago, French Collection said:

Talk about a commitment.

I like Östlund and his all around game. There are not many playmakers in the top 9 and he could use this skill to help out the PP and set the table for some of the snipers. He’s not really gritty but he doesn’t take s**t either. He will do what is necessary to make a play and seems like a team player.

I believe he is still on his ELC this year so the big $$ kick in next season, which will be a smaller percentage of the cap. The money being thrown around to young, unproven guys is a result of Anaheim’s mess. The teams that can identify talent early and lock it up at reasonable rates will have money to pay for mercenaries when that need arises.
 

I hope Noah turns into a solid 2/3C as that contract would be a steal. I also hope some of these young guys develop into first liners because it is hard to win it all with a bunch of middle six players. I think Benson will get there and Helenius can join him. I can see Östlund feeding Kulich on a line at some point.

Leo Carlsson will be a 1C and produce more than Östlund but the Sabres may get more than half of that production for almost 1/3 of the price.

Would you trade Benson, Doan and Östlund for Carlsson?

Leo will be making about $2M less than those 3 combined