If you were Jarmo, what is the most you would part with in trade for Hellebuyck?

[_Q_]

Helenius = untouchable in my book.  STUD

[JohnC]

19 hours ago, dudacek said:

Yes, I’d trade Helenius in Hellebuyck deal.

Not as one of 4 or 5 pieces like Promo keeps pretending is the price, but as one of two pieces, sure.

Dahlin, Power, Samuelsson, Thompson and Benson are already off limits for their best player. 

If you aren’t willing to give up a player who might not be among your top 10 assets for their best player, you aren’t really serious about getting him.

I think you are underestimating Helenius's talent. I believe that not only will he be a productive player next season, he is very likely to be top two line player in the near future. The person to listen who has regularly watched him in Rochester is @K-9. If his assessment of him is close to being accurate, then trading him in any deal with Winnipeg would be a mistake, in my estimation. 

There is another side to this extended Helly discussion. Many people are assuming that this goalie is still in his prime and will remain so for the foreseeable future. As @GASabresIUFAN and few others have pointed out, the recent analytics on the player don't necessarily match with some of the lofty expectations of him. 

[dudacek]

29 minutes ago, JohnC said:

I think you are underestimating Helenius's talent. I believe that not only will he be a productive player next season, he is very likely to be top two line player in the near future. The person to listen who has regularly watched him in Rochester is @K-9. If his assessment of him is close to being accurate, then trading him in any deal with Winnipeg would be a mistake, in my estimation. 

There is another side to this extended Helly discussion. Many people are assuming that this goalie is still in his prime and will remain so for the foreseeable future. As @GASabresIUFAN and few others have pointed out, the recent analytics on the player don't necessarily match with some of the lofty expectations of him. 

I think top-two line forward is likely in Konsta’s future as well.

Thing is, all that means is he will be in the top 50% of NHL forwards. Jack Quinn is a top-two line forward. They aren’t uncommon.

NHL MVP goalies? Those things are uncommon.

Goalies who put up .925, 2.00 and 47-12-3 less than 18 months ago? Uncommon.

Prior to last season, Hellebuyck’s worst save % in the past 8 years is .913. His worst. He’s topped .920 five times.

Yes, last season raises questions. But you can say the same for Auston Matthews or Matthew Tkachuk or Brayden Point. Let’s stop pretending this is an ordinary player.

Or that Helenius is an extraordinary prospect.

 

[dudacek]

And to be clear, I agree there is risk that Helenius can be Suzuki, and risk that Hellebuyck is done.

I just think those things are less likely than the Sabres being better off making the swap - certainly for this season and probably for the duration of Hellebuyck's contract.

[Dr. Who]

Just now, dudacek said:

And to be clear, I agree there is risk that Helenius can be Suzuki, and risk that Hellebuyck is done.

I just think those things are less likely than the Sabres being better off making the swap - certainly for this season and probably for the duration of Hellebuyck's contract.

There's no certitude. That's where individual judgment comes into play. There's no way to adjudicate that, it's all projection. I don't want to trade Quinn, but I would. I would not trade Helenius.

[That Aud Smell]

7 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Let’s stop pretending this is an ordinary player.

Or that Helenius is an extraordinary prospect.

In general, I think there's a lot of that going on here: Undervaluing Hellebuyck and overvaluing Helenius. 

Just now, dudacek said:

And to be clear, I agree there is risk that Helenius can be Suzuki, and risk that Hellebuyck is done.

I just think those things are less likely than the Sabres being better off making the swap - certainly for this season and probably for the duration of Hellebuyck's contract.

And I'm convinced that, if the deal happens, it will involve Helenius going the other way.

It's funny too: A month ago, I had equated Östlund and Helenius in terms of value.

But the more I read and think about it, the more it seems that Helenius is the piece that the Jets want. And understandably so. The upside there is so significant. And Östlund hasn't yet shown that he's durable enough to be a top-6 NHL forward.

[That Aud Smell]

Btw, and maybe this is for @LGR4GM to reboot: Have I inferred from this thread that Mrtka is already sort of an a.ss prospect?

Among other things, there was something about how Mrtka's numbers compare with Rudolph's in the WHL.

It leads me to infer that the (my) reflexive "UPL (if he'll waive?!), Mrtka, an unprotected 2027 1st, and Quinn" is a total non-starter.

Edited September 1 by That Aud Smell

[LGR4GM]

13 minutes ago, That Aud Smell said:

Btw, and maybe this is for @LGR4GM to reboot: Have I inferred from this thread that Mrtka is already sort of an a.ss prospect?

Among other things, there was something about how Mrtka's numbers compare with Rudolph's in the WHL.

It leads me to infer that the (my) reflexive "UPL (if he'll waive?!), Mrtka, an unprotected 2027 1st, and Quinn" is a total non-starter.

I am a bad judge of Mrtka because I think he was overdrafted and I think he majorly stagnated in his D+1. Anyways Justin Carbonneau had more goals than Mrtka had points. 

[Archie Lee]

20 minutes ago, dudacek said:

I think top-two line forward is likely in Konsta’s future as well.

Thing is, all that means is he will be in the top 50% of NHL forwards. Jack Quinn is a top-two line forward. They aren’t uncommon.

NHL MVP goalies? Those things are uncommon.

Goalies who put up .925, 2.00 and 47-12-3 less than 18 months ago? Uncommon.

Prior to last season, Hellebuyck’s worst save % in the past 8 years is .913. His worst. He’s topped .920 five times.

Yes, last season raises questions. But you can say the same for Auston Matthews or Matthew Tkachuk or Brayden Point. Let’s stop pretending this is an ordinary player.

Or that Helenius is an extraordinary prospect.

 

I agree with everything you write here. There is something I'm struggling with though. In a hockey world where we know the following to be true:

- Year to year, goaltending is voodoo. Outside of a very select few (and sometimes including those few), you just don't know who will and won't be good.

- Hellebuyck, who has been a remarkably consistent regular season goalie in his career, is a top 3-4 goalie in the world, and possibly #1, meaning he would be an upgrade on 27-28 teams

- There are probably only 2-3 teams in the entire NHL that don't plan to be in the playoffs this year (Van, Cal, Chi?), so it isn't the case that most teams have no need for an upgrade

- The cap isn't an issue. 10 teams could add him without moving out any salary, 10 more could add him by moving out one roster player, and it has been proven by Vegas that where there  is a will there is a way. And Hellebuyck is locked up long-term with the cap going up.

Why is he still a Jet? And why is it that the team with the 3rd best goaltending save% in the league last year, is the most interested?

I'm not suggesting there is something we don't know here. It is just odd to me Hellebuyck, whose skill, status, reputation, and accomplishment, makes him the sort of player who very rarely becomes available in trade. Yet, no team seems particularly interested and fans are quibbling over his value compared to less than sure-thing prospects and middle-six forwards.

[dudacek]

59 minutes ago, That Aud Smell said:

Btw, and maybe this is for @LGR4GM to reboot: Have I inferred from this thread that Mrtka is already sort of an a.ss prospect?

Among other things, there was something about how Mrtka's numbers compare with Rudolph's in the WHL.

It leads me to infer that the (my) reflexive "UPL (if he'll waive?!), Mrtka, an unprotected 2027 1st, and Quinn" is a total non-starter.

Mrtka is not ass.

He’s what he was when we picked him: a 6’6” defenceman who can skate and has enough skill to be close to a point/game player in the WHL.

But he’s raw, his skill is not high-end offensively at the NHL level and he will need time to mold. Still, he has the toolkit to become a right-handed Samuelsson.

Like Mule it will take time to get there and it’s hard to be sure he ever will.

Edited September 1 by dudacek

[dudacek]

23 minutes ago, Archie Lee said:

I agree with everything you write here. There is something I'm struggling with though. In a hockey world where we know the following to be true:

- Year to year, goaltending is voodoo. Outside of a very select few (and sometimes including those few), you just don't know who will and won't be good.

- Hellebuyck, who has been a remarkably consistent regular season goalie in his career, is a top 3-4 goalie in the world, and possibly #1, meaning he would be an upgrade on 27-28 teams

- There are probably only 2-3 teams in the entire NHL that don't plan to be in the playoffs this year (Van, Cal, Chi?), so it isn't the case that most teams have no need for an upgrade

- The cap isn't an issue. 10 teams could add him without moving out any salary, 10 more could add him by moving out one roster player, and it has been proven by Vegas that where there  is a will there is a way. And Hellebuyck is locked up long-term with the cap going up.

Why is he still a Jet? And why is it that the team with the 3rd best goaltending save% in the league last year, is the most interested?

I'm not suggesting there is something we don't know here. It is just odd to me Hellebuyck, whose skill, status, reputation, and accomplishment, makes him the sort of player who very rarely becomes available in trade. Yet, no team seems particularly interested and fans are quibbling over his value compared to less than sure-thing prospects and middle-six forwards.

I think you answered your own question: goalies are like running backs, very important, but also fragile and replaceable.

There is a reason there hasn’t been one traded for a big haul in 25 years: GMs don’t trust them enough.

Ryan Miller was Hellebuyck.

He was traded along with Steve Ott for the rough equivalent of Quinn, UPL, Zeimer and a 1st.

The goalie market is a real thing and people aren’t paying enough attention to it.

Edited September 1 by dudacek

[thewookie1]

54 minutes ago, That Aud Smell said:

In general, I think there's a lot of that going on here: Undervaluing Hellebuyck and overvaluing Helenius. 

And I'm convinced that, if the deal happens, it will involve Helenius going the other way.

It's funny too: A month ago, I had equated Östlund and Helenius in terms of value.

But the more I read and think about it, the more it seems that Helenius is the piece that the Jets want. And understandably so. The upside there is so significant. And Östlund hasn't yet shown that he's durable enough to be a top-6 NHL forward.

Then quite simply, no thank you

[JohnC]

1 hour ago, dudacek said:

And to be clear, I agree there is risk that Helenius can be Suzuki, and risk that Hellebuyck is done.

I just think those things are less likely than the Sabres being better off making the swap - certainly for this season and probably for the duration of Hellebuyck's contract.

I’m not suggesting that Helly is rapidly fading from his high perch as a goalie. But I’m not convinced that our current  trio of goalies is insufficient enough to deal off a young player who should be on one of our top two lines, either this year or soon thereafter.

I not only have high expectations for Helenius but also Kulich. You already know what my stance is in Quinn.

[French Collection]

Hellebuyck’s NTC could be making it harder on Chevy. There may have been legitimate trade offers but he said no. We don’t know how many teams he would agree to go to. He wants to move but it may be a tiny list.

This could help teams sitting in the weeds, waiting for Chevy to lower his demands.

[Doohickie]

2 hours ago, dudacek said:

I think top-two line forward is likely in Konsta’s future as well.

Thing is, all that means is he will be in the top 50% of NHL forwards.

By the end of this season, he will be 1C and will be considered a league-wide top 10 1C.

[Flashsabre]

No way they should give up Helenuis in a Hellebuyck deal. 

No Benson, Doan or Konsta.

Mrtka or Kleber, 1st, UPL if he would waive, McLeod would be as far as I would go.

 

[SabresFan69420]

1 hour ago, Flashsabre said:

No way they should give up Helenuis in a Hellebuyck deal. 

No Benson, Doan or Konsta.

Mrtka or Kleber, 1st, UPL if he would waive, McLeod would be as far as I would go.

 

This is as far as I would go also, and this is still likely an overpay honestly.. but sometimes you just want something even if it isnt a good deal

 

[Carmel Corn]

3 hours ago, dudacek said:

Mrtka is not ass.

He’s what he was when we picked him: a 6’6” defenceman who can skate and has enough skill to be close to a point/game player in the WHL.

But he’s raw, his skill is not high-end offensively at the NHL level and he will need time to mold. Still, he has the toolkit to become a right-handed Samuelsson.

Like Mule it will take time to get there and it’s hard to be sure he ever will.

What I wonder is if Mrtka can be molded into more of a pure "shut down" guy vs. trying to score points?  Between Dahlin, Power, Zell...plus the Rudolph, etc....the gap I see are prospects who focus on defense first (IMHO).  Not asking this to you directly, but just teeing it up for anybody's opinion.

[dudacek]

12 minutes ago, Carmel Corn said:

What I wonder is if Mrtka can be molded into more of a pure "shut down" guy vs. trying to score points?  Between Dahlin, Power, Zell...plus the Rudolph, etc....the gap I see are prospects who focus on defense first (IMHO).  Not asking this to you directly, but just teeing it up for anybody's opinion.

I think it was Leone, but there was a member of the Sabres brass interviewed during development camp who very much said the intention with Mrtka is to develop him into a shutdown guy. Kleber is another in the same mold.

@LGR4GM's point has never been that Mrtka is going to bust, it's just been that he may have been taken too high: guys with similar profiles like Samuelsson and Kleber are often available later on.

(As opposed to guys like Rudolph — who have both size, and the skill to run an NHL power play — who are rarely available outside the top 10)

[K-9]

4 hours ago, dudacek said:

I think top-two line forward is likely in Konsta’s future as well.

Thing is, all that means is he will be in the top 50% of NHL forwards. Jack Quinn is a top-two line forward. They aren’t uncommon.

NHL MVP goalies? Those things are uncommon.

Goalies who put up .925, 2.00 and 47-12-3 less than 18 months ago? Uncommon.

Prior to last season, Hellebuyck’s worst save % in the past 8 years is .913. His worst. He’s topped .920 five times.

Yes, last season raises questions. But you can say the same for Auston Matthews or Matthew Tkachuk or Brayden Point. Let’s stop pretending this is an ordinary player.

Or that Helenius is an extraordinary prospect.

 

The last player to average a PPG in the AHL at age 19 was Guy Chouinard in 1976. 50 years ago. Talk about uncommon. 

Something about how you couched the commonality argument in the bold sentence above rings hollow to me. Based that criteria, ALL top two line forwards in the league are in the top 50% of NHL forwards. 

Taking nothing away from Hellebuyck, but based on Helenius’s career trajectory at present, imho it would be a huge mistake to give up such a promising asset who will just be reaching his prime when Hellebuyck is in his sunset years. Helenius stands to contribute more for far longer. 

[dudacek]

6 minutes ago, K-9 said:

The last player to average a PPG in the AHL at age 19 was Guy Chouinard in 1976. 50 years ago. Talk about uncommon. 

Something about how you couched the commonality argument in the bold sentence above rings hollow to me. Based that criteria, ALL top two line forwards in the league are in the top 50% of NHL forwards. 

Taking nothing away from Hellebuyck, but based on Helenius’s career trajectory at present, imho it would be a huge mistake to give up such a promising asset who will just be reaching his prime when Hellebuyck is in his sunset years. Helenius stands to contribute more for far longer. 

I'm seeing the following U19 AHL seasons on Eliteprospects just in the past 5 years:

• JJ Peterka: 68 points in 70 games
• Ilya Protas 66 points in 69 games
• Helenius 63 in 63
• Bradley Nadeau 58 in 64
• Lukas Reichel 57 in 56
• Alexander Holtz 51 in 52
• Trevor Connelly 49 in 46

A little further back, Mikko Rantanen 60 in 52, Willie Nylander 45 in 38. Helenius had a very impressive season, but it's no guarantee of anything.

My point was simply that calling Helenius a top-six forward to be is not much to get excited about.

Your last paragraph is absolutely fair comment. Sabres win Hellebuyck for Helenius now; the question is how big a win, and for how long?

 

 

[irregularly irregular]

2 hours ago, Flashsabre said:

No way they should give up Helenuis in a Hellebuyck deal. 

No Benson, Doan or Konsta.

Mrtka or Kleber, 1st, UPL if he would waive, McLeod would be as far as I would go.

 

That feels like too much to me. I'd begrudgingly accept it if that's what Jarmo decided was acceptable.

The 1st, the Dman of their choice and a starting NHL goalie is plenty in my book. 

[LGR4GM]

51 minutes ago, Carmel Corn said:

What I wonder is if Mrtka can be molded into more of a pure "shut down" guy vs. trying to score points?  Between Dahlin, Power, Zell...plus the Rudolph, etc....the gap I see are prospects who focus on defense first (IMHO).  Not asking this to you directly, but just teeing it up for anybody's opinion.

Kleber, McCarthy, Strbak are all defense first players. 

[#freejame]

McLeod is worth more to the 2026-2027 Sabres than Östlund is. I’d wager he’s more important to the 27-28 team as well. 

[K-9]

Just now, dudacek said:

I'm seeing the following U19 AHL seasons on Eliteprospects just in the past 5 years:

• JJ Peterka: 68 points in 70 games
• Ilya Protas 66 points in 69 games
• Helenius 63 in 63
• Bradley Nadeau 58 in 64
• Lukas Reichel 57 in 56
• Alexander Holtz 51 in 52
• Trevor Connelly 49 in 46

A little further back, Mikko Rantanen 60 in 52, Willie Nylander 45 in 38. Helenius had a very impressive season, but it's no guarantee of anything.

My point was simply that calling Helenius a top-six forward to be is not much to get excited about.

Your last paragraph is absolutely fair comment. Sabres win Hellebuyck for Helenius now; the question is how big a win, and for how long?

 

 

Yeah, I overlooked Reichel and Rantanen and I should have qualified a minimum game sample as well. Thanks for the edification. 

In analyzing his game, I don’t think it’s as simple as just calling Helenius a top six forward. His 200 foot game, PP/PK abilities, his commitment to defense, and his sheer doggedness on the puck are all qualities that imho already separate him from many top two line forwards in this league. 

Ya know, when I gave your comment about your top 50% of NHL forwards more thought, you have put Helenius in rather elite company as there are superstars aplenty occupying top two line roles in the league. 😄

Anyway, it’s all conjecture at this point. What happens, happens.