Is Tage Thompson good enough?

[SabresFan69420]

1 hour ago, mjd1001 said:

I know the numbers showed this to a certain extent...

In the playoffs, Tuch got 'demoted' to the '2nd group' on the PK, getting less time than in the regular season. (effectively tied for 1st on the team among Forwards in PK time in the regular season, dropped to the 2nd PK pair, 3rd in minutes, in the playoffs, WELL behind Greenway and Malenstyne) And why did that happen? The Sabres PK allowed a goal once every 5.6 minutes Tuch was out there on the PK in the playoffs. When he wasn't out there, they were much more effective at allowing a goal only once every 8.1 minutes.

Even in the regular season, this year he brought the PK down. Visually/eye test, I (along with some others) commented he was taking more chances...looking for his own SH goals but being out of position more than in the past, and the numbers in the regular season showed that also.  With him on the ice, the Sabres allowed 1 goal against every 7.4 minutes. With him not on the ice, it improved to one goal every 12.4 minutes.

Those numbers aren't subtle differences, they are BIG TIME differences.  It is hard to figure out penalty killing 'rates' per individual player because each PK you allow a goal on is not a full 2 minutes, but effectively it is as if the Sabres killed penalties with Tuch on the ice at about a 76% rate (near 28th in the league)...but when anyone and everyone was out there EXCEPT Tuch, they killed them at an almost 85% rate (tops in the league)

In the previous 3 seasons prior to this past season, the numbers for Tuch were better:  1 goal every 7 minutes he was on the ice for the PK, 1 goal every 6.6 minutes allowed he wasn't on the ice.  But not last year.

Basically, He made the PK slightly better when he was on the ice in previous years, but this year, and in the playoffs, it was MUCH worse when he was out there.

Again, not a small sample size. An entire season. A whole season of being the guy with the most PK ice time.

Maybe Ruff was OK with allowing Tuch to take more chances in the regular season for SH goals, but in the playoffs he wanted to tighten things up? Either way, Ruff pulled his PK minutes in the playoffs and the PK was less effective with him out there, not only in the playoffs but all season long.

(all the stats in this post are from naturalstattrick.com)

 

I noticed this also. To me this was probably the most significant red flag for him showing his age. 
 

Pretty much all of Tuch’s strengths stem from his speed. When that speed is there he’s got to try and cheat to make up for it. Some players can make that work and some can’t. 
 

pretty much exhibit A for the “keep him if he takes a team friendly deal but not at market price”

[LGR4GM]

1 hour ago, mjd1001 said:

I know the numbers showed this to a certain extent...

In the playoffs, Tuch got 'demoted' to the '2nd group' on the PK, getting less time than in the regular season. (effectively tied for 1st on the team among Forwards in PK time in the regular season, dropped to the 2nd PK pair, 3rd in minutes, in the playoffs, WELL behind Greenway and Malenstyne) And why did that happen? The Sabres PK allowed a goal once every 5.6 minutes Tuch was out there on the PK in the playoffs. When he wasn't out there, they were much more effective at allowing a goal only once every 8.1 minutes.

Even in the regular season, this year he brought the PK down. Visually/eye test, I (along with some others) commented he was taking more chances...looking for his own SH goals but being out of position more than in the past, and the numbers in the regular season showed that also.  With him on the ice, the Sabres allowed 1 goal against every 7.4 minutes. With him not on the ice, it improved to one goal every 12.4 minutes.

Those numbers aren't subtle differences, they are BIG TIME differences.  It is hard to figure out penalty killing 'rates' per individual player because each PK you allow a goal on is not a full 2 minutes, but effectively it is as if the Sabres killed penalties with Tuch on the ice at about a 76% rate (near 28th in the league)...but when anyone and everyone was out there EXCEPT Tuch, they killed them at an almost 85% rate (tops in the league)

In the previous 3 seasons prior to this past season, the numbers for Tuch were better:  1 goal every 7 minutes he was on the ice for the PK, 1 goal every 6.6 minutes allowed he wasn't on the ice.  But not last year.

Basically, He made the PK slightly better when he was on the ice in previous years, but this year, and in the playoffs, it was MUCH worse when he was out there.

Again, not a small sample size. An entire season. A whole season of being the guy with the most PK ice time.

Maybe Ruff was OK with allowing Tuch to take more chances in the regular season for SH goals, but in the playoffs he wanted to tighten things up? Either way, Ruff pulled his PK minutes in the playoffs and the PK was less effective with him out there, not only in the playoffs but all season long.

(all the stats in this post are from naturalstattrick.com)

 

I'm wondering if he's already starting to have a skating decline. Pk is really about lane clogging and short area quickness.

[mjd1001]

24 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

I'm wondering if he's already starting to have a skating decline. Pk is really about lane clogging and short area quickness.

Tuch skating numbers/metrics took a big time decline earlier in the season. But then, they got better again.  (My guess is his skating IS declining, but all you need is one 'top speed' burst and a few burts over a certain mph to make them look better).  The thing is, if you look at his edge skating numbers over the last 3-4 years, they have been declining every year, including through most of the first half this year, until recovering a bit at the very end of the year.

Someone who is a cynic might say he started 'cheating' and trying to leave the zone early on the PK to bump up his PK chances/goals/shorthanded goals in a contract year, but that hurt his overall PK effectiveness for the team.

Edited August 26 by mjd1001

[mjd1001]

45 minutes ago, Taro T said:

I'm NOT talking about ONLY his PK usage.  I'm more talking about his usage at the end of EVERY game that the Sabres were protecting a lead.  And his usage in the 3rd periods of those games where they were protecting a lead.

THAT will be the usage of his that is hardest to replace IMHO.  And Greenway wasn't getting nearly the usage there that Tuch was getting.

The Sabres were VERY good at protecing late leads last year (after YEARS of being extremely bad at it).  Staying good at that will be huge if they want to repeat or exceed last season's results.

Ok, before I go on posting stats, I'm going to agree that Tuch is going to be a loss. He was one of the top 5 players on the team last year, and in the top 3 among forwards.

But to address the points above...I really REALLY think either he was losing a step of speed/acceleration...or he was 'cheating' to try to get those SH goals/empty net goals.

Not only was Tuch bad on the PK last year (as per my previous post, you could TELL by watching he was chasing the puck and leaning toward the offensive zone, and the numbers clearly show the Sabres were much worse on the PK when he was out there compared to when other guys were), but the numbers albeit a small sample size...show the same thing when they were trying to protect a 1 goal lead with the opposing empty net in front of them...

Defending 6-on-5 with an an opposing empty net With Tuch out there, the Sabres allowed 1 goal every 5.5 minutes

Defending 6-on-5 with an oppposing empty net...with Tuch NOT out there: Sabres allowed 1 goal every 10.4 minutes.

So again, last year across the entire season, the Sabres were MUCH better on the Penalty kill without Tuch rather than with him, and they were MUCH better (almost twice as good statistically) protecing a lead when the other team pulls the goalie with him not out there compared to him out there.

It can be a stastical anomoly I guess, but a full season is a pretty good sample size. But the 'eye test' (at least my own) showed me he was chasing more and out of position, trying to for that short handed chance or empty net goal.  If not, it at least shows he might have been 'losing a step' and didn't adjust to it well.

Again though, I'm not saying Tuch was a bad player, he is going to be hard to replace. Just his penalty killing, and his late game defense, was a lot worse last year and took a big hit compared to previous years (my own personal opinion watching him, wanting to scream at the TV sometimes "Tuch, where are you going!!" and the numbers back it up)

[EM88]

9 minutes ago, mjd1001 said:

Tuch skating numbers/metrics took a big time decline earlier in the season. But then, they got better again.  (My guess is his skating IS declining, but all you need is one 'top speed' burst and a few burts over a certain mph to make them look better).  The thing is, if you look at his edge skating numbers over the last 3-4 years, they have been declining every year, including through most of the first half this year, until recovering a bit at the very end of the year.

Someone who is a cynic might say he started 'cheating' and trying to leave the zone early on the PK to bump up his PK chances/goals/shorthanded goals in a contract year, but that hurt his overall PK effectiveness for the team.

I must admit there were times last season while watching Alex Tuch on the ice, times where the thought entered my own mind he might be looking to pad his statistics in a contract year.  He simply took too many chances at times when he should have been holding his position.

I did not realize just how much the numbers supported that in the past season.

[Cityo'Rasmii]

A sniper (and keeper) to be sure but coughs it up way too many times along the wall.

[Taro T]

1 hour ago, mjd1001 said:

Ok, before I go on posting stats, I'm going to agree that Tuch is going to be a loss. He was one of the top 5 players on the team last year, and in the top 3 among forwards.

But to address the points above...I really REALLY think either he was losing a step of speed/acceleration...or he was 'cheating' to try to get those SH goals/empty net goals.

Not only was Tuch bad on the PK last year (as per my previous post, you could TELL by watching he was chasing the puck and leaning toward the offensive zone, and the numbers clearly show the Sabres were much worse on the PK when he was out there compared to when other guys were), but the numbers albeit a small sample size...show the same thing when they were trying to protect a 1 goal lead with the opposing empty net in front of them...

Defending 6-on-5 with an an opposing empty net With Tuch out there, the Sabres allowed 1 goal every 5.5 minutes

Defending 6-on-5 with an oppposing empty net...with Tuch NOT out there: Sabres allowed 1 goal every 10.4 minutes.

So again, last year across the entire season, the Sabres were MUCH better on the Penalty kill without Tuch rather than with him, and they were MUCH better (almost twice as good statistically) protecing a lead when the other team pulls the goalie with him not out there compared to him out there.

It can be a stastical anomoly I guess, but a full season is a pretty good sample size. But the 'eye test' (at least my own) showed me he was chasing more and out of position, trying to for that short handed chance or empty net goal.  If not, it at least shows he might have been 'losing a step' and didn't adjust to it well.

Again though, I'm not saying Tuch was a bad player, he is going to be hard to replace. Just his penalty killing, and his late game defense, was a lot worse last year and took a big hit compared to previous years (my own personal opinion watching him, wanting to scream at the TV sometimes "Tuch, where are you going!!" and the numbers back it up)

Thanks for that.  That's interesting, because the eye test said that he was not particularly good on the PK this year, but that he WAS effective late in the game 5v5 and 5v6.

Maybe they won't miss his defensive play as much as this kid fears.

[GASabresIUFAN]

https://www.nhl.com/news/topic/top-players-right-now/nhl-current-players-ranked-top-20-centers-2026
 

Tage 19th. (Larkin 20th)

Somehow Larkin is 41st, ahead of Stutzle (13th in the top 20 center list & 42 in the top 50 list) and Tage is outside the top 50.  
 

https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-network-countdown-top-players-numbers-50-41

Please someone make it make sense.

(PS Dahlin was 4th on the top 20 D list, 30th on the overall list behind Morrisey (29th), Hedman (22nd) and Heiskenan (21st).  All three were behind Dahlin on the D list).  Please someone make it make sense.

Edited August 27 by GASabresIUFAN

[PerreaultForever]

11 hours ago, JohnC said:

I agree with you that we don't have an actual star forward on the team. (Although it can be credibly argued that Tage is on the borderline of that category.) On the other hand, as you point out, the Sabres have enough talent to assemble three good lines where the lower lines are not that distinct from the higher lines. This is a thick and versatile roster where there are a lot of interchangeable parts that can be moved up and down without losing much effectiveness. 

Although I can't predict which of the young player will make a major leap forward, I'm comfortable in predicting that all of them should be better as they gain experience and also get physically stronger. 

That's the key for us obviously. We have a window here with players signed, and a guy like Tage signed cheap, and with the ELCs on the roster there is opportunity. How many and how fast the young guys emerge determines how far we go. Dominant third lines are often the difference in cup runs. We can potentially have that at this time if things go well. 

[JohnC]

5 hours ago, mjd1001 said:

 

 

Toward the end of the season and into the playoffs, I thought Tuch was actually bad on the PK.  I'm not sure if he was just really REALLY trying for Shorthanded goal opportunities, but he was out of position and chasing the puck a LOT.  Greenway, not Tuch, will be the harder one to replace on the PK.

There is no question that Tuch was trying to do too much by forcing to make an offensive play instead of staying disciplined and playing within the structure of the PK. As you point out, that became apparent at the end of the season and in the playoffs. On the other hand, before he seemed to play more individually instead of within the structure at the end of his stint here, he was an effective PK player. 

The point I'm making here is that although there were interludes of him playing outside the PK structure, he was not only an effective PK player but also an instrumental player on that unit.  My sense (guess) was that he was trying to do too much and forcing things in order to make an offensive play. 

 

Both Greenway and Tuch were big fellows with big reaches. Those are deficits that will be difficult to replace. 

[...]

 

Tage can score goals,
But Tage is poor at defense,
Tage can't be center.

[Porous Five Hole]

4 hours ago, mjd1001 said:

Ok, before I go on posting stats, I'm going to agree that Tuch is going to be a loss. He was one of the top 5 players on the team last year, and in the top 3 among forwards.

But to address the points above...I really REALLY think either he was losing a step of speed/acceleration...or he was 'cheating' to try to get those SH goals/empty net goals.

Not only was Tuch bad on the PK last year (as per my previous post, you could TELL by watching he was chasing the puck and leaning toward the offensive zone, and the numbers clearly show the Sabres were much worse on the PK when he was out there compared to when other guys were), but the numbers albeit a small sample size...show the same thing when they were trying to protect a 1 goal lead with the opposing empty net in front of them...

Defending 6-on-5 with an an opposing empty net With Tuch out there, the Sabres allowed 1 goal every 5.5 minutes

Defending 6-on-5 with an oppposing empty net...with Tuch NOT out there: Sabres allowed 1 goal every 10.4 minutes.

So again, last year across the entire season, the Sabres were MUCH better on the Penalty kill without Tuch rather than with him, and they were MUCH better (almost twice as good statistically) protecing a lead when the other team pulls the goalie with him not out there compared to him out there.

It can be a stastical anomoly I guess, but a full season is a pretty good sample size. But the 'eye test' (at least my own) showed me he was chasing more and out of position, trying to for that short handed chance or empty net goal.  If not, it at least shows he might have been 'losing a step' and didn't adjust to it well.

Again though, I'm not saying Tuch was a bad player, he is going to be hard to replace. Just his penalty killing, and his late game defense, was a lot worse last year and took a big hit compared to previous years (my own personal opinion watching him, wanting to scream at the TV sometimes "Tuch, where are you going!!" and the numbers back it up)

This isn’t your job to provide fancy stats to inquiring minds, but if you don’t mind indulging me…how do we make sense of Tage & Tuch being a constant on the top line together, but plus/minus Tage was a -6 and Tuch was a +24? 

[mjd1001]

17 hours ago, Porous Five Hole said:

This isn’t your job to provide fancy stats to inquiring minds, but if you don’t mind indulging me…how do we make sense of Tage & Tuch being a constant on the top line together, but plus/minus Tage was a -6 and Tuch was a +24? 

I don't know if I have the answer for that.  A few things to look at though.

Linemates: Tuch and Tage Together they played 623 minutes last year even strength. They had a +6 goal differential.  When not together ES, Tage had 646 minutes and was a -7, Tuch had 552 and was a + 13.  Teamates/linemates when not together might be a factor?  Tage only played with Quinn for 76 minutes, but he was a -6 with Quinn. Thompson and Norris did NOT mesh last year (Thompson playes much better with Kulich) and Thompson was a -7 with Norris in just 69 minutes together.  It could be style and what teamates you play with Mesh with?

-Ice time and usage: Powerplay. Tage had 24 PP points. Tuch had 9. You don't get a 'plus' for PP points/being on the ice.  However, those goals count just as much. Those goals help you win just as much as any other goal.  Tage simply missed out on 15 'pluses' over Tuch because they happened to be on the PP.

-The other side of it:  Penalty Killing. Alex Tuch was on the ice for a -19 goal differential on penalty killing, but none of those 'minuses' count.  Per my prior post, he hurt the PK last year, the PK was much worse last year when he was on the ice, yet he gets the benefit of it.  Take it one step further. Part of the reason he hurt the team on PK last year is he was out of position, looking for shorthanded chances...that ultimately hurt the team. Part of that -19 goal negative differental (that didn't count on his plus-minus) was his fault for doing that...he wasn't penalized for that. HOWEVER he was on the ice for 7 Short handed goals for, and he gets the benefit of the positive for those.

To try to summarize my above points..Tage is good on the PP, he helps the team on the PP probably more than anyone. Yet he doens't get credit for the Plus-minus.  Tuch hurt the PK last year when he was on the ice by taking a lot of chances...didn't get dinged for any of the goals allowed (and again, more SH goals were allowed with him on the ice than anyone else) but he got the credit for the 'pluses' that his risk taking led to.

Tage gets more PP time than Tuch...and you can only get a negative added to your +/- when you are on the PP. Tuch gets a lot more shorthanded time than Tage, you can only get a "+" when you are out there shorthanded.

So do any of the thoughts I listed above mean anything? Maybe, Maybe not.  I tend to think they explain part of Tuchs great Plus-minus (His usage is optimal for having a good plus-minus, while tage's usage is optimal for having a bad plus-minus).

Tage is more skilled, Tuch is more well rounded (nothing groundbreaking there). Both can play the PK, but neither is good there (despite Tuch's reputation).  Tage is way more valuable on the Powerplay than Tuch, while Tuch has a more well rounded game even strength.

Both can be overrated a bit on this forum (neither is close to being a superstar/top 10 player in the league) but I'd much rather have Tage on the ice because of his contract and contract-duration-to-age-ratio.

Edited August 27 by mjd1001

[PerreaultForever]

On 8/26/2026 at 6:37 AM, Pimlach said:

You say this by watching the games I assume?  The scuttlebutt around the league is that he trains hard, leads by example, and is hungry and willing to do what it takes to play a 2-way game. 

He had 81 points in 81 games playing at times with a mixed bag on his line.  He had 15 points in 13 playoff games - but the play most remembered is his failure to pass to Benson on the 2 on 1 late in game 7 versus Montreal.   

I don't think it is fair to call this low hockey IQ, but he clearly made the wrong decision, and Dobes played it perfectly.  

 

The play that sticks in my mind last year is the defensive one where he tried to make a stick play and then got turned around reaching and he ended up looking like a clumsy figure skater. This sort of thing doesn't happen often but it's the result of trying to be fancy and make stick plays rather than just using his huge body and taking guys out. On a play like that he needs to just bear down and take the guy's head off. Clean him out as he admires his pass Tom Wilson style. Sure he'd get some penalties once in a while playing like that but he'd also have guys looking to avoid him and thus screwing up and rushing plays on their own.

It's a dream, I know. He'll never be that guy despite having the body that would make it a formidable possibility. 

[French Collection]

1 hour ago, PerreaultForever said:

The play that sticks in my mind last year is the defensive one where he tried to make a stick play and then got turned around reaching and he ended up looking like a clumsy figure skater. This sort of thing doesn't happen often but it's the result of trying to be fancy and make stick plays rather than just using his huge body and taking guys out. On a play like that he needs to just bear down and take the guy's head off. Clean him out as he admires his pass Tom Wilson style. Sure he'd get some penalties once in a while playing like that but he'd also have guys looking to avoid him and thus screwing up and rushing plays on their own.

It's a dream, I know. He'll never be that guy despite having the body that would make it a formidable possibility. 

His shove of DeBrincat is something we could all see more of but you are right, it is not in his DNA.

It is like me wanting Power to channel Chris Pronger, it will never happen but 10% tougher is possible.

[PerreaultForever]

2 hours ago, French Collection said:

His shove of DeBrincat is something we could all see more of but you are right, it is not in his DNA.

It is like me wanting Power to channel Chris Pronger, it will never happen but 10% tougher is possible.

Yes, the DeBrincat moment was the one that shows just how good he could be. I also remember a fight he had with Miller in Boston a few years back. Went toe to toe with a serious heavyweight (at the time). Not saying I'd want him to fight all the time but that level of grit and physicality would be something . 

Power will never be Pronger as you say, but I think he could still be Pietrangelo (before his injury issues obviously).