Is our goaltending good enough

[SabresFan69420]

I think in the spirit of the original question it boils down to: are our goalies better than Andersen and Bussi? 
 

Statistically yes. (I think so) I am curious to see what the last few cup winning goalie stats were. 
 

In the modern NHL I think the team in front of the goalie makes a much larger difference. I know there’s a lot of dogging on UPL for the game 7 goal but a floating/dropping puck is incredibly difficult and frankly the series should have not even made it to game seven or overtime. 

If Tage passes the puck to benson on that 2-1 we aren’t having this conversation probably. 

 

Edited August 24 by SabresFan69420

[nfreeman]

IMHO, the answer is yes, although I would've been happy to get Helly (depending on the price).  UPL was very good last year -- 6th in the NHL in SV% and 9th in GAA -- until he crashed and burned in the playoffs.  (BTW, I was surprised to see, in checking his stats, that he only played in 35 games last year -- I would've guessed closer to 45.)

I don't think mental toughness is a strength of UPL's, and I am concerned that the Sabres' pursuit of Helly at the draft might put UPL into a tailspin.  But I also don't want to close the book on him after 1 go at the playoffs.  I'd guess that more NHL players don't do well in their first playoff experience, but learn from it and improve the next time, than those (like Benson!) who hit the ground running and are terrific immediately.

I'd still give up Quinn, Mrkta and a #1 for Helly.  But they can pry Helenius, or a 4th real asset, out of my cold, dead fingers.  At that point I'd rather run it back with last year's 3-headed monster.

[transient]

2 hours ago, TageMVP said:

Agreed, Dobes and Swayman were very hard to beat, even with a million quality chances against each.

They stood on their heads big time 

Too bad we couldn't manage to tire Dobes out as he was working his ass off to stop all of the high danger shots. Maybe he would have started letting in more low danger shots and evened the playing field a little.

[TageMVP]

1 hour ago, transient said:

Too bad we couldn't manage to tire Dobes out as he was working his ass off to stop all of the high danger shots. Maybe he would have started letting in more low danger shots and evened the playing field a little.

Yup its too bad Montreal played better team defense than the Sabres did. Bummer

The advanced analytic nerdz are out in full force today 

[Archie Lee]

The last 4 cup finals had the following goaltending match-ups (the winner bolded):

Bobrovsky v. Hill

Bobrovsky v. Skinner

Bobrovsky v. Skinner

Andersen/Bussi v. Hart

Based on this, if the question is "Can we get to the cup finals with our current goaltenders", and the answer is no, then I think it could also be more simply said that we just aren't good enough to get to the cup finals. 

Is Lukkonen as good as Hill, Skinner, Bussi, Hart, or 36 year old (.874 save %) Freddie Andersen? We could argue around the edges on that question, but I don't think the individuals from those teams that separate them as cup champs or finalists from the 2026 Sabres, are the goaltenders. Certainly not just the goaltenders.

[GASabresIUFAN]

4 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

You shouldn’t dismiss him because of waivers.  His play the two years prior to the Sabres in the AHL was stellar with save% of 924 and 922.  His final season in the Q was a 1.78 gaa with a 928 save %.  In the Q that’s an amazing accomplishment.  He was also a 3rd rd pick.  His A numbers are significantly better than UPL ever put up.

We got him on waivers because StL tried to sneak him back to the A for a 3rd season and the Sabres, disappointed with Levi, grabbed him because of his excellent resume.  He was a NHL rookie last year and will only be 26 to start the season.  
 

Personally I think he could be the best of the 3 goalies we have by season’s end.  

 

 

I’ll add that Ellis had significantly better AHL numbers than Bussi or Dobes.  He is 3 years younger than Bussi and the same age as Dobes.  

[PerreaultForever]

The thing about playoff goalies is it's not about overall stats or percentages always. It's about big saves at big times and key moments. Tied games late, OT performance. Stopping that breakaway late. Rising to the big moments. Most cup winning goalies are often not the best overall but they were big when it matters. UPL is not that. He is inconsistent and unreliable. He can have big moments, but he can also let in too many soft ones and that's why he isn't good enough to take you all the way. 

This is why Boston for example kept Swayman and ditched Ullmark. Ullmark was great in the regular season but he didn't rise up in the playoffs. Swayman was better in those clutch situations. Ullmark followed that same pattern in Ottawa. It's who he is. 

[GoPuckYourself]

I've stated many times my thoughts on the goaltenders and thought we needed upgrading since we lost Ullmark yet here we are still talking about the same issues several years later. UPL imo would be a backup goaltender on any top tier teams aside from possibly Edmonton who is desparate for literally any goalie at this point. If you don't have a top goalie then you better have a championship caliber supporting cast around him. It's hard to say that we do since we lost 2 pretty prominent players on our roster and hoping young prospects can be just as good so that remains to be seen.

[PerreaultForever]

44 minutes ago, GoPuckYourself said:

I've stated many times my thoughts on the goaltenders and thought we needed upgrading since we lost Ullmark yet here we are still talking about the same issues several years later. UPL imo would be a backup goaltender on any top tier teams aside from possibly Edmonton who is desparate for literally any goalie at this point. If you don't have a top goalie then you better have a championship caliber supporting cast around him. It's hard to say that we do since we lost 2 pretty prominent players on our roster and hoping young prospects can be just as good so that remains to be seen.

This is exactly why I say we need to make the Helleybuck trade. Sabres haven't prioritized goaltending for a very long time and he would solidify the position and make it one of strength for the next 4 years if not longer. 

[GoPuckYourself]

48 minutes ago, PerreaultForever said:

This is exactly why I say we need to make the Helleybuck trade. Sabres haven't prioritized goaltending for a very long time and he would solidify the position and make it one of strength for the next 4 years if not longer. 

I think Helle would be a game changer for us as well but if the return involves either Östlund or Helenius I don't think I'd do it and I believe that's what the holdup is imo otherwise why wouldn't we be able to make a deal?

[SabreFinn]

1 hour ago, GoPuckYourself said:

I think Helle would be a game changer for us as well but if the return involves either Östlund or Helenius I don't think I'd do it and I believe that's what the holdup is imo otherwise why wouldn't we be able to make a deal?

As I have understood the situation, UPL has a NTC, and Winnipeg is on his list. Meaning the trade for Hellebuyck will never happen. That’s why I think a more likely trade partner is Minnesota, who need cap space and has a coming Vezina in Wallstedt. By trading Gustavsson for UPL we get an upgrade and Wild get both cap space and a decent back-up. Win-Win.

[gilbert11]

I’m my opinion, the goaltending was good enough in the regular season but not the playoffs.  In the playoffs, I believe a goaltender has to win games (Reference: Dominik Hasek as an extreme example). I don’t think any of the Sabres playoff wins were mainly due to the goaltender.

[PerreaultForever]

3 hours ago, GoPuckYourself said:

I think Helle would be a game changer for us as well but if the return involves either Östlund or Helenius I don't think I'd do it and I believe that's what the holdup is imo otherwise why wouldn't we be able to make a deal?

I would allow it to be Östlund plus but not Helenius. Not that I think Östlund is awful or anything just that I think he's less special and more replaceable down the road. Also (possibly) less durable. 

[PerreaultForever]

1 hour ago, SabreFinn said:

As I have understood the situation, UPL has a NTC, and Winnipeg is on his list. Meaning the trade for Hellebuyck will never happen. That’s why I think a more likely trade partner is Minnesota, who need cap space and has a coming Vezina in Wallstedt. By trading Gustavsson for UPL we get an upgrade and Wild get both cap space and a decent back-up. Win-Win.

UPL doesn't have to be part of the trade. Or you can ship him somewhere else if needed. 

Your Minnesota idea is intriguing though. 

[SabreFinn]

2 hours ago, PerreaultForever said:

UPL doesn't have to be part of the trade. Or you can ship him somewhere else if needed. 

Your Minnesota idea is intriguing though. 

That is true, I still think we need to get UPLs salary of the books if we go for Hellebuyck and I just don't see a good fit if it isn't a goalie for a goalie swap. 

[transient]

4 hours ago, gilbert11 said:

I’m my opinion, the goaltending was good enough in the regular season but not the playoffs.  In the playoffs, I believe a goaltender has to win games (Reference: Dominik Hasek as an extreme example). I don’t think any of the Sabres playoff wins were mainly due to the goaltender.

I don’t even think you have to go that far. In the playoffs you can’t have your goaltending losing you games by giving up cheap goals. If the outcome of the series with Montreal was exactly the same except there weren’t so many soft goals given up then the case for running it back with our current crease would look much different. 

[SabresFan69420]

5 hours ago, gilbert11 said:

I’m my opinion, the goaltending was good enough in the regular season but not the playoffs.  In the playoffs, I believe a goaltender has to win games (Reference: Dominik Hasek as an extreme example). I don’t think any of the Sabres playoff wins were mainly due to the goaltender.

Did Carolina’s goaltending win them any games? 

[Archie Lee]

12 hours ago, PerreaultForever said:

The thing about playoff goalies is it's not about overall stats or percentages always. It's about big saves at big times and key moments. Tied games late, OT performance. Stopping that breakaway late. Rising to the big moments. Most cup winning goalies are often not the best overall but they were big when it matters. UPL is not that. He is inconsistent and unreliable. He can have big moments, but he can also let in too many soft ones and that's why he isn't good enough to take you all the way. 

This is why Boston for example kept Swayman and ditched Ullmark. Ullmark was great in the regular season but he didn't rise up in the playoffs. Swayman was better in those clutch situations. Ullmark followed that same pattern in Ottawa. It's who he is. 

And yet, a goalie like Swayman can be outplayed by a journeyman like Alex Lyon. 

[LGR4GM]

33 minutes ago, SabresFan69420 said:

Did Carolina’s goaltending win them any games? 

Carolina might have the best shot suppressing structure in the league. I think they are an outlier unless you believe the Sabres could emulate the tight checking puck possession game that Carolina likes. 

[Archie Lee]

20 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Carolina might have the best shot suppressing structure in the league. I think they are an outlier unless you believe the Sabres could emulate the tight checking puck possession game that Carolina likes. 

I know you were responding to a specific question re: Carolina. There is though, a lot of room for improvement short of being the best in the league at shot suppression. 

If we need elite goaltending to win with Ruff’s system, then we best get an elite goalie. 

[DarthEbriate]

GSAA in the regular season:

Luukkonen 2.6;   Lyon 2.89;   Ellis 3.5

In the playoffs:

Luukkonen -2.71;   Lyon 1.8;   Ellis --

(for comparison, they played against Swayman 1.9 and Dobes 6.9)

The goaltending was very solid in the regular season, but was exposed in the playoffs (once Lyon had his 2 poor starts in Games 2-3 v. MTL) when you compare your goaltending to the direct competition night after night. The question would be for the future: If they make the playoffs this season, would Ruff just alternate them as he did during the season? Dress Ellis every night again?

[SabresFan69420]

43 minutes ago, DarthEbriate said:

GSAA in the regular season:

Luukkonen 2.6;   Lyon 2.89;   Ellis 3.5

In the playoffs:

Luukkonen -2.71;   Lyon 1.8;   Ellis --

(for comparison, they played against Swayman 1.9 and Dobes 6.9)

The goaltending was very solid in the regular season, but was exposed in the playoffs (once Lyon had his 2 poor starts in Games 2-3 v. MTL) when you compare your goaltending to the direct competition night after night. The question would be for the future: If they make the playoffs this season, would Ruff just alternate them as he did during the season? Dress Ellis every night again?

I think he has to continue the rotation. It worked so well and as soon as they stopped it their play dropped. 
 

Lyon I understand, he’s not a starting goalie so you would expect fatigue with consecutive starts especially after how many games he played during the season. 
 

UPL on the other hand I think is a much bigger red flag. If the starting goalie can’t string together even a few good starts in a row we have a massive problem. 

[Pimlach]

14 hours ago, PerreaultForever said:

The thing about playoff goalies is it's not about overall stats or percentages always. It's about big saves at big times and key moments. Tied games late, OT performance. Stopping that breakaway late. Rising to the big moments. Most cup winning goalies are often not the best overall but they were big when it matters. UPL is not that. He is inconsistent and unreliable. He can have big moments, but he can also let in too many soft ones and that's why he isn't good enough to take you all the way. 

This is why Boston for example kept Swayman and ditched Ullmark. Ullmark was great in the regular season but he didn't rise up in the playoffs. Swayman was better in those clutch situations. Ullmark followed that same pattern in Ottawa. It's who he is. 

Remember the Islanders dynasty teams?  Chico Resch was excellent in the regular season and he split the net with Billy Smith.  In the playoffs Billy was the man, he was clutch.   

[Taro T]

Just now, Pimlach said:

Remember the Islanders dynasty teams?  Chico Resch was excellent in the regular season and he split the net with Billy Smith.  In the playoffs Billy was the man, he was clutch.   

So much so that they traded Resch to the Rockies so that they didn't have to justify playing the "lesser" goalie exclusively come playoff time.

[LGR4GM]

1 hour ago, Archie Lee said:

I know you were responding to a specific question re: Carolina. There is though, a lot of room for improvement short of being the best in the league at shot suppression. 

If we need elite goaltending to win with Ruff’s system, then we best get an elite goalie. 

Yea without better suppression metrics, the most likely outcome is Buffalo goalies regress away from very good to more average.