Is our goaltending good enough

[Taro T]

1 minute ago, JohnC said:

The issue isn’t whether Helly is a better goalie than what we have. The issue is what will you give up to get him? And you know what my stance is on that trade off. Getting an addition while giving up too many subtractions adds up to a deficit from where you started. I give Jarmo credit for the way he has handled this issue.

IF you land Hellebucyk at the cost of one of Quinn/Östlund, Mrtka, and a 1st; don't forget, you now can part with both UPL and Lyon/Ellis and UPL could get you something good, either by himself or more likely in a package.  

Really not a fan of losing Östlund, expect he'll be a play driver as a 2C; am more willing to lose Quinn, but not looking to move him simply to move him; but Hellebucyk makes this team instantly capable of repeating or exceeding last season's results without needing every single coinflip to come up heads for the Sabres.

They MIGHT be able to do so running last year's GTing back; but they need an awful lot of heads to come up consecutively to make that happen.  And, they'll need a few to come up just to make sure they get back into the dance this year.

Losing 1 of Quinn/Östlund is a painful price; but you have to give something to get something.  And Hellebucyk might be the the best goalie in the world and absolutely is still in the top 5.

[transient]

33 minutes ago, TageMVP said:

The goaltending is fine

Did they overperform last year? Lyon did. UPL alternates between good years and bad years. Hes more than capable. Hes gonna step it up after making the playoffs. Guaranteed 

The real culprit was the SHYTTY DEFENSE against Montreal

Did the goalies take a slight step back during the Montreal series? Yes. But ANY goalie would have a hard time saving 500 shots from point blank against any team, and thats exactly what happened against Montreal 

The defense is why we lost that series. Period 

That’s not what happened, though. Ironically, UPL is better with the point blank range shots and stopping multiple rebound attempts than he is at stopping a wobbler from the top of the faceoff circle, which is ultimately what cost them the Montreal series. 

[Night Train]

I think so.

I get they could still trade for Helly but is it really worth it ?  Olympics were good but he wasn't good after. 

Lyon is good most nights. More so than UPL. Ellis is here for a reason, IMO.  UPL better not falter. It's really the D play in front of them more than we think. 

[TageMVP]

2 hours ago, transient said:

That’s not what happened, though. Ironically, UPL is better with the point blank range shots and stopping multiple rebound attempts than he is at stopping a wobbler from the top of the faceoff circle, which is ultimately what cost them the Montreal series. 

Thats exactly what happened

The defense was solid in the Boston series, which was more due to our forwards skating circles around Boston so the defense had much less responsibility and then fell apart against a faster more skilled forward group when they had to show up 

Let me ask you this 

Do you think its easier to stop 18 shots from the blue line only or easier to stop 20 shots from the slot and 10 shots from the blue line? 

UPL had to work his as off all series to stop all the high danger chances, got tired out, and let in a somewhat weak goal to end the series. The defense failed and could not keep up with Montreal's forwards.

Watch it again and you'll see 

 

[#freejame]

We either have an elite top 4 d or we don’t. Thats the answer to your question. 

[JohnC]

3 hours ago, Taro T said:

IF you land Hellebucyk at the cost of one of Quinn/Östlund, Mrtka, and a 1st; don't forget, you now can part with both UPL and Lyon/Ellis and UPL could get you something good, either by himself or more likely in a package.  

Really not a fan of losing Östlund, expect he'll be a play driver as a 2C; am more willing to lose Quinn, but not looking to move him simply to move him; but Hellebucyk makes this team instantly capable of repeating or exceeding last season's results without needing every single coinflip to come up heads for the Sabres.

They MIGHT be able to do so running last year's GTing back; but they need an awful lot of heads to come up consecutively to make that happen.  And, they'll need a few to come up just to make sure they get back into the dance this year.

Losing 1 of Quinn/Östlund is a painful price; but you have to give something to get something.  And Hellebucyk might be the the best goalie in the world and absolutely is still in the top 5.

Hard no for losing either Quinn or Östlund. I expect Quinn to be a 30 plus goal scorer for us. He becomes an added value player because he is capable of filling in for the loss of Tuch's goal production. 

The Sabres have taken a long road to build a deep roster that has a lot of role flexibility. Why tamper with it when the upside exists from within? If you consider that Ellis is still available to fill in if either one of our top two goalies falter, then why subtract from our roster to get another goalie. 

After the first month or so of last season, the Sabres had either the first or second best record in the NHL. Why tamper with the roster when it is playing so well. When you are already on the road to success, why get off of it? Stay the course!!!!

[transient]

2 hours ago, TageMVP said:

Thats exactly what happened

The defense was solid in the Boston series, which was more due to our forwards skating circles around Boston so the defense had much less responsibility and then fell apart against a faster more skilled forward group when they had to show up 

Let me ask you this 

Do you think its easier to stop 18 shots from the blue line only or easier to stop 20 shots from the slot and 10 shots from the blue line? 

UPL had to work his as off all series to stop all the high danger chances, got tired out, and let in a somewhat weak goal to end the series. The defense failed and could not keep up with Montreal's forwards.

Watch it again and you'll see 

 

The high danger shots were almost equal between the teams, Montreal just converted more of theirs. 
 

Granted, this is AI generated and I didn’t fact check it, but this is why Montreal won:

“Jakub Dobeš overwhelmingly dominated the advanced metrics, finishing the series with a staggering +0.721 Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAx) per 60 minutes, cementing himself as the clear MVP of the series for the Montréal Canadiens. [1, 2]

By contrast, the Buffalo Sabres' crease was plagued by volatility. Starter Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen turned in a highly pedestrian +0.037 GSAx per 60 minutes, leaving Buffalo heavily chasing games due to early, low-danger leakages. [1]

Goaltending Efficiency Comparison

Advanced Metric (Per 60 Mins)

Jakub Dobeš (MTL)

Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen (BUF)

Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAx)

+0.721

+0.037

High-Danger Save %

.827

.762”

 

You can make up all the excuses you want… UPL was too tired from the high danger chances to save the gimmes is certainly a new one by me… but the Sabres carried the play in game 7 and put almost 40 shots on Dobes, yet he wasn’t too tired to steal the game for them. 

[pi2000]

Goaltending was good enough last year.

This coming season is another roll of the dice if nothing changes.

[TageMVP]

15 minutes ago, transient said:

The high danger shots were almost equal between the teams, Montreal just converted more of theirs. 
 

Granted, this is AI generated and I didn’t fact check it, but this is why Montreal won:

“Jakub Dobeš overwhelmingly dominated the advanced metrics, finishing the series with a staggering +0.721 Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAx) per 60 minutes, cementing himself as the clear MVP of the series for the Montréal Canadiens. [1, 2]

By contrast, the Buffalo Sabres' crease was plagued by volatility. Starter Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen turned in a highly pedestrian +0.037 GSAx per 60 minutes, leaving Buffalo heavily chasing games due to early, low-danger leakages. [1]

Goaltending Efficiency Comparison

Advanced Metric (Per 60 Mins)

Jakub Dobeš (MTL)

Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen (BUF)

Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAx)

+0.721

+0.037

High-Danger Save %

.827

.762”

 

You can make up all the excuses you want… UPL was too tired from the high danger chances to save the gimmes is certainly a new one by me… but the Sabres carried the play in game 7 and put almost 40 shots on Dobes, yet he wasn’t too tired to steal the game for them. 

You forgot what happened in the Montreal series already? Wow 

I stopped reading after AI generated. Sorry d00d 

[Eleven]

14 minutes ago, pi2000 said:

Goaltending was good enough last year.

No, it wasn't.

[GASabresIUFAN]

10 hours ago, dudacek said:

The question begs another: good enough for what?

Was Marty Biron good enough?

How about Roger Crozier?

UPL is an average NHL starter with good tools who lacks the ability to shake off adversity.

Lyon is a warrior with below average tools who can steal games and give them away.

Each just had the best season of his career. Each is unlikely to repeat.

Last season showed they can be good enough as a tandem to carry the load for a division winner and not good enough to make a difference over a 7-game series.

That’s likely their ceiling.

They’re fine.

I’d prefer better.

 

You are forgetting Ellis.  His the the wildcard in this equation.  We haven't seen his ceiling or even his prime.  I think there is very good chance he supplants Lyon sooner than later and then who knows.

Edited August 24 by GASabresIUFAN

[...]

7 hours ago, TageMVP said:

Thats exactly what happened

The defense was solid in the Boston series, which was more due to our forwards skating circles around Boston so the defense had much less responsibility and then fell apart against a faster more skilled forward group when they had to show up 

Let me ask you this 

Do you think its easier to stop 18 shots from the blue line only or easier to stop 20 shots from the slot and 10 shots from the blue line? 

UPL had to work his as off all series to stop all the high danger chances, got tired out, and let in a somewhat weak goal to end the series. The defense failed and could not keep up with Montreal's forwards.

Watch it again and you'll see 

 

This is why the changes in the D-corps were inevitable. Hopefully the new guys are better at defense than the old guys.

You're missing another factor: the Sabres couldn't consistently score goals when it mattered in the second round. Coaches and players leaning too much on the concept of Tuch, plus an inexperienced bunch of forwards, both of which have been addressed.

[PerreaultForever]

Good enough for what?

To maybe make the playoffs? Probably. 

To go far in the playoffs? Unlikely.

To win the cup? No. Big fat NO. 

[JohnC]

11 hours ago, Eleven said:

No, it wasn't.

It was good enough for a 109 pt. season and a seventh game loss in the second round. Our goalie play was in general solid to good. It wasn't at an elite level but few teams have that caliber of netminder. 

[dudacek]

10 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

You are forgetting Ellis.  His the the wildcard in this equation.  We haven't seen his ceiling or even his prime.  I think there is very good chance he supplants Lyon sooner than later and then who knows.

Ellis is a waiver wire pickup.

Nothing on his resume suggests he is the answer.

[TageMVP]

8 hours ago, ... said:

This is why the changes in the D-corps were inevitable. Hopefully the new guys are better at defense than the old guys.

You're missing another factor: the Sabres couldn't consistently score goals when it mattered in the second round. Coaches and players leaning too much on the concept of Tuch, plus an inexperienced bunch of forwards, both of which have been addressed.

Agreed, Dobes and Swayman were very hard to beat, even with a million quality chances against each.

They stood on their heads big time 

[Archie Lee]

19 hours ago, dudacek said:

Here's the thing though, there are 4 seasons of UPL being an NHL regular:

• "Good" UPL showed up for seasons of 54 and 37 games.
• "Bad" UPL showed up for seasons of 33 and 55 games.

It's more of a 50/50 sample size than a 2/3rds good sample size, and we have yet to see any form of consistency.

That said, he's had three seasons as the supposed starter, so your framing works on that level, and his one "bad" season of those three came in the particularly bad environment of the final full Adams year.

Yes, you can explain it away as part of the usual growth process of a maturing goalkeeper and say this year more accurately will tell the tale.

It's just that I'm not typically a fan who gives up on developing players early; I generally focus on the positive indicators and remain patient that they figure out how to apply them consistently after a few laps around the league.

With UPL, I've watched 190 games now and think that's enough to make the call: I don't think he's got it in him to be "that guy". 

Fair enough.  I think your view is reasonable.

The "is he good enough" question, is basically "Can we win a cup with this guy?".  It's a fair question to direct towards Luukkonen and Thompson as our likely starting goalie and best forward, respectively. While the sample size on both players, given their age and the history of the organization they play for, is probably too small, I think it is fair to say it is unlikely we will win a Stanley Cup on the back of either player. Patrick Roy and Sidney Crosby they are not.

If we are concerned about whether we have the people in place to win a cup, I would start with the 60 year old GM who in 12 years in the role has only made it out of round 1 twice (and never farther than rd 2), and the 66 year old head coach who in 25 years in the role has never won a cup, and who hasn't coached a team into the playoffs in consecutive seasons since Obama's 1st term.

If we stumble this year though, I think it is most likely that goaltending will be the primary identified culprit. 

 

[LGR4GM]

12 hours ago, TageMVP said:

You forgot what happened in the Montreal series already? Wow 

I stopped reading after AI generated. Sorry d00d 

So... you've got nothing? UPL was awful in the Montreal series and it wasn't simply because of the defense in front of him. He wasn't "tired" when he let in the series winning goal. It is well known at this point in the NHL that UPL has a slow glove hand, we've seen that goal against him on multiple occasions. He is a mediocre starter who had a good year. Maybe if we are lucky he can do it again next year. 

[LGR4GM]

15 hours ago, TageMVP said:

 

UPL had to work his as off all series to stop all the high danger chances, got tired out, and let in a somewhat weak goal to end the series. The defense failed and could not keep up with Montreal's forwards.

Watch it again and you'll see 

 

Sorry but a goalie that gets "tired out" from playing a whopping 6 playoff games and only starting 5 of them needs to go. He "got tired out" from what? If I divide the 137 shots he faced just by the starts (5) he had, we end up with 27.4 shots a game and he was "tired out"? That includes playing in the Boston series. What a bad excuse made up out of thin air to support a point that makes no sense. UPL was not good in the playoffs, period. Lyon played 10games and started 8, he saw 26 shots a night if we only use starts and saw over 200 shots total, was he tired too? 

UPL was -2.7 goals against on average based on the shots he faced. Again, had a good year but the was bad in the playoffs. 

[TageMVP]

6 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

So... you've got nothing? UPL was awful in the Montreal series and it wasn't simply because of the defense in front of him. He wasn't "tired" when he let in the series winning goal. It is well known at this point in the NHL that UPL has a slow glove hand, we've seen that goal against him on multiple occasions. He is a mediocre starter who had a good year. Maybe if we are lucky he can do it again next year. 

Not much here. Very vague, lacking supporting empirical evidence 

You have been automatically logged out from Sabrespace and may try again in 5 hours 

[Pimlach]

13 hours ago, pi2000 said:

Goaltending was good enough last year.

This coming season is another roll of the dice if nothing changes.

Exactly.  Seems like goaltending is a roll of the dice for most NHL teams.  
 

Add Helly and goaltending should be top tier, and what a difference that could make.  

[LGR4GM]

14 minutes ago, TageMVP said:

Not much here. Very vague, lacking supporting empirical evidence 

You have been automatically logged out from Sabrespace and may try again in 5 hours 

You made the claim the defense was bad. Prove it, you know since you don't like a lack of evidence (you've provided none). 

Edit: Here I will help... https://www.nhl.com/nhl-edge/goalies/ukko-pekka-luukkonen-8480045/20252026/3

Edited August 24 by LGR4GM

[LGR4GM]

Wait lol it gets better. 

UPL 5v5 sv% by playoffs game:

Boston 4/19 - .846%

Boston 4/21 - .813%

Montreal 5/12 - .950%

Montreal 5/14 - .818% (I was physically present at this game. UPL let in multiple AWFUL ATROCIOUS and BAD goals in the 2nd period)

Montreal 5/16 - 1.0%

Montreal 5/18 - .917%

So the guy who was supposedly "tired" and playing behind a "bad defense" in the Montreal series had his 1st, 2nd, 3rd, and 5th ranked game of the playoffs. 

[GASabresIUFAN]

1 hour ago, dudacek said:

Ellis is a waiver wire pickup.

Nothing on his resume suggests he is the answer.

You shouldn’t dismiss him because of waivers.  His play the two years prior to the Sabres in the AHL was stellar with save% of 924 and 922.  His final season in the Q was a 1.78 gaa with a 928 save %.  In the Q that’s an amazing accomplishment.  He was also a 3rd rd pick.  His A numbers are significantly better than UPL ever put up.

We got him on waivers because StL tried to sneak him back to the A for a 3rd season and the Sabres, disappointed with Levi, grabbed him because of his excellent resume.  He was a NHL rookie last year and will only be 26 to start the season.  
 

Personally I think he could be the best of the 3 goalies we have by season’s end.  

 

 

[transient]

48 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Wait lol it gets better. 

UPL 5v5 sv% by playoffs game:

Boston 4/19 - .846%

Boston 4/21 - .813%

Montreal 5/12 - .950%

Montreal 5/14 - .818% (I was physically present at this game. UPL let in multiple AWFUL ATROCIOUS and BAD goals in the 2nd period)

Montreal 5/16 - 1.0%

Montreal 5/18 - .917%

So the guy who was supposedly "tired" and playing behind a "bad defense" in the Montreal series had his 1st, 2nd, 3rd, and 5th ranked game of the playoffs. 

Huh... 🤔... is this the same guy who was supposedly playing behind a better defensive effort as the Sabres skated circles around Boston but still ended up getting chased from that series... 🤷‍♂️