Is our goaltending good enough

[JohnC]

https://www.espn.com/nhl/team/stats/_/type/goalie/name/buf

Much of the discussion this offseason has dealt with trading for Hellebuyck. Would trading for Hellebuyck improve our goaltending? Of course, few would argue otherwise. However, the issue then becomes at what cost? I have firmly stated that I would not deal for him if it required giving up young players such as Kulich, Helenius, Quinn or Power. I would reluctantly be willing to considering trading Östlund in such a deal. 

Last year, I saw games where UPL seemed to take the next step and appear to solidify himself as a solid netminder. And then there were games where he relapsed from being a motion-controlled and composed player to frantically moving around the net and exposing his vulnerabilities

The big issue for me is whether UPL has reached the point where he can be a steady goaltender and our anchor goalie. Although I think he can I recognize that many are skeptical about depending on him. I'm comfortable being in the category where I don't see a great need to alter the goalie staffing on this team, especially if it requires subtracting one of our promising young players who are ready to contribute now. I'm comfortable in staying the course. 

[transient]

16 minutes ago, JohnC said:

The big issue for me is whether UPL has reached the point where he can be a steady goaltender and our anchor goalie. 

No

17 minutes ago, JohnC said:

Last year, I saw games where UPL seemed to take the next step and appear to solidify himself as a solid netminder. And then there were games where he relapsed from being a motion-controlled and composed player to frantically moving around the net and exposing his vulnerabilities

This is not a last season thing, this is a UPL his whole career thing. He’s a talented player who is vulnerable to mental lapses, and when those mental lapses happen he starts to hang-dog it and he spirals instead of being the sort of player who uses it to motivate himself and steel his resolve. Watch his reaction to the playoff goal he have up on the clearing attempt. He’s watching the replay on the Jumbotron and drops a dejected f-bomb and pouts. Give me the Patrick Roy stick smashing anger and resolve any day, not that pathetic display. 

[JohnC]

6 minutes ago, transient said:

No

This is not a last season thing, this is a UPL his whole career thing. He’s a talented player who is vulnerable to mental lapses, and when those mental lapses happen he starts to hang-dog it and he spirals instead of being the sort of player who uses it to motivate himself and steel his resolve. Watch his reaction to the playoff goal he have up on the clearing attempt. He’s watching the replay on the Jumbotron and drops a dejected f-bomb and pouts. Give me the Patrick Roy stick smashing anger and resolve any day, not that pathetic display. 

I’m not worried about theatric responses. Different personalities have different responses to critical failures. Overall, he had a good season. Can he get better? I believe so. 

[...]

"Is our goaltending good enough[?]"

No. The Sabres are doomed.

 

 

Lyon played above,

UPL is a head case,

Hellebuyck not here.

[transient]

59 minutes ago, JohnC said:

I’m not worried about theatric responses. Different personalities have different responses to critical failures. Overall, he had a good season. Can he get better? I believe so. 

It’s not about the theatrics, it’s about the mental makeup and responding to adversity. UPL has had several good seasons. He’s a talented player. The issue is all players make mistakes, but it’s how they recover from those mistakes, especially in the biggest moments, that tend to define them. UPL could win the Vezina with a good regular season, but if he continues to unravel when under pressure he’s never going to ultimately be good enough. The Sabres have spent a lot of time letting UPL develop in the hopes that he breaks through. How many seasons does he need to prove he’s the same ol’ Uupie? Every season they give him and he fails is one fewer season of this core’s window. 

Edited August 23 by transient

[PromoTheRobot]

Yes.

[JohnC]

23 minutes ago, transient said:

It’s not about the theatrics, it’s about the mental makeup and responding to adversity. UPL has had several good seasons. He’s a talented player. The issue is all players make mistakes, but it’s how they recover from those mistakes, especially in the biggest moments, that tend to define them. UPL could win the Vezina with a good regular season, but if he continues to unravel when under pressure he’s never going to ultimately be good enough. The Sabres have spent a lot of time letting UPL develop in the hopes that he breaks through. How many seasons does he need to prove he’s the same ol’ Uupie? Every season they give him and he fails is one fewer season of this core’s window. 

You may not realize the actual reality that UPL had a good season last year. You are making a demonstrably false assumption about him that is wrong. 

1 minute ago, PromoTheRobot said:

Yes.

You are succinct. 😀

[transient]

1 hour ago, JohnC said:

You may not realize the actual reality that UPL had a good season last year. You are making a demonstrably false assumption about him that is wrong. 

You are succinct. 😀

I acknowledged that he had a good season and went one step further acknowledging that he’s had several. Even during those seasons he’s prone to melting down at the worst times. It doesn’t matter if he can have regular season success if he can’t get you through the playoffs. 
 

I guess the question is what do you mean by “good enough”. Good enough to get through the regular season and to the playoffs? Or good enough to win the cup? If everything that has been reported about the Sabres interest in Hellebuyck was true you know who likely feels the same as those of us who doubt UPL? Sabres’ management. 
 

https://www.espn.com/nhl/team/stats/_/type/goalie/name/buf/season/2026/seasontype/3

Edited August 23 by transient

[dudacek]

The question begs another: good enough for what?

Was Marty Biron good enough?

How about Roger Crozier?

UPL is an average NHL starter with good tools who lacks the ability to shake off adversity.

Lyon is a warrior with below average tools who can steal games and give them away.

Each just had the best season of his career. Each is unlikely to repeat.

Last season showed they can be good enough as a tandem to carry the load for a division winner and not good enough to make a difference over a 7-game series.

That’s likely their ceiling.

They’re fine.

I’d prefer better.

 

Edited August 23 by dudacek

[transient]

8 minutes ago, dudacek said:

The question begs another: good enough for what?

Was Marty Biron good enough?

How about Roger Crozier?

UPL is an average NHL starter with good tools who lacks the ability to shake off adversity.

Lyon is a warrior with below average tools who can steal games and give them away.

Each just had the best season of his career. Each is unlikely to repeat.

Last season showed they can be good enough as a tandem to carry the load for a division winner and not good enough to make a difference over a 7-game series.

That’s likely their ceiling.

They’re fine.

I’d prefer better.

 

My fear is UPL is just good enough to spend a whole lot of time before coming to the conclusion that he’s just not good enough. He’s Rob Johnson. 

[French Collection]

Other than Bobrovsky and Vasilevskiy here are the recent Cup winning goalies.

Andersen/Bussi

Hill/Thompson

Kuemper/Francouz

Binnington/Allen

Holtby/Grubauer

Murray/Fleury

Not exactly regular Vezina candidates.
The 90’s Sabres needed Hasek in order to contend, they didn’t have the firepower of the current team.

I would like to get Hellebuyck because it would remove some stress about the ability to win important games but even he has faltered in past playoffs, unable to take good teams very deep. His performance in the Olympics is what you are looking for, not the sub .900 playoff goalie with the Jets.

I think the best opportunity to get him was with the #4 pick but you never know. A 33 year old goalie shouldn’t cost 4 pieces like the Jets may want.

[Believer]

UPL is 27.

He plays the most difficult position to learn.

I expect him to continue to improve both his physical and mental game.

Will be interesting to see how Jarmo handles UPL.

Stay with him or trade him.

[Archie Lee]

I think people generally have a glass half empty view on Luukkonen. While he is no longer a truly young goalie, he remains in the bottom 3rd, by age, of projected most likely NHL starters. It might be premature to put him in the "he is what he is" category. The year to year general inconsistency of even good NHL goaltenders, combined with UPL's 3 year history as a starter (one good, one bad, one good), seems to have people expecting this to be year bad. I don't think there is any concrete basis for this thinking. On balance, a player who was good in 2 of their first 3 full NHL seasons is probably more likely to be good than bad in year 4; the sample is too small to be certain of anything though.

The one thing I would have done different with goaltending, from what Jarmo did (and setting aside a big acquisition), is I would have kept Levi and moved out Lyon. I understand why they didn't. Lyon was good last year, and you can only part with so much experience in one off-season. On balance though, given that the Sabres are at the start of what could be a long window of contention, and given that they are intent on spreading the risk over 3 goalies for now, and given Levi's potential upside, I think it would have made more sense to keep Levi in the mix over Lyon.  

Edited August 23 by Archie Lee

[JohnC]

20 minutes ago, Archie Lee said:

I think people generally have a glass half empty view on Luukkonen. While he is no longer a truly young goalie, he remains in the bottom 3rd, by age, of projected most likely NHL starters. It might be premature to put him in the "he is what he is" category. The year to year general inconsistency of even good NHL goaltenders, combined with UPL's 3 year history as a starter (one good, one bad, one good), seems to have people expecting this to be year bad. I don't think there is any concrete basis for this thinking. On balance, a player who was good in 2 of their first 3 full NHL seasons is probably more likely to be good than bad in year 4; the sample is too small to be certain of anything though.

The one thing I would have done different with goaltending, from what Jarmo did (and setting aside a big acquisition), is I would have kept Levi and moved out Lyon. I understand why they didn't. Lyon was good last year, and you can only part with so much experience in one off-season. On balance though, given that the Sabres are at the start of what could be a long window of contention, and given that they are intent on spreading the risk over 3 goalies for now, and given Levi's potential upside, I think it would have made more sense to keep Levi in the mix over Lyon.  

Excellent post and very thoughtful. Where I slightly disagree with you regards is your take on Levi. Having Ellis makes the Levi departure less consequential. 

[dudacek]

15 minutes ago, Archie Lee said:

I think people generally have a glass half empty view on Luukkonen. While he is no longer a truly young goalie, he remains in the bottom 3rd, by age, of projected most likely NHL starters. It might be premature to put him in the "he is what he is" category. The year to year general inconsistency of even good NHL goaltenders, combined with UPL's 3 year history as a starter (one good, one bad, one good), seems to have people expecting this to be year bad. I don't think there is any concrete basis for this thinking. On balance, a player who was good in 2 of their first 3 full NHL seasons is probably more likely to be good than bad in year 4; the sample is too small to be certain of anything though.

The one thing I would have done different with goaltending, from what Jarmo did (and setting aside a big acquisition), is I would have kept Levi and moved out Lyon. I understand why they didn't. Lyon was good last year, and you can only part with so much experience in one off-season. On balance though, given that the Sabres are at the start of what could be a long window of contention, and given that they are intent on spreading the risk over 3 goalies for now, and given Levi's potential upside, I think it would have made more sense to keep Levi in the mix over Lyon.  

Here's the thing though, there are 4 seasons of UPL being an NHL regular:

• "Good" UPL showed up for seasons of 54 and 37 games.
• "Bad" UPL showed up for seasons of 33 and 55 games.

It's more of a 50/50 sample size than a 2/3rds good sample size, and we have yet to see any form of consistency.

That said, he's had three seasons as the supposed starter, so your framing works on that level, and his one "bad" season of those three came in the particularly bad environment of the final full Adams year.

Yes, you can explain it away as part of the usual growth process of a maturing goalkeeper and say this year more accurately will tell the tale.

It's just that I'm not typically a fan who gives up on developing players early; I generally focus on the positive indicators and remain patient that they figure out how to apply them consistently after a few laps around the league.

With UPL, I've watched 190 games now and think that's enough to make the call: I don't think he's got it in him to be "that guy".

[mjd1001]

Is the goaltending good enough 'for what'? Good enough to compete for a playoff spot?  Yes.  Good enough to go deep into the playoffs and contend for a cup? Probably not.

I'm also not 100% sure Hellebuyck is the solution.  I'm 50-50 on him, whether he would be a considerable improvement or whether he is not on the downside of his career and the regular season with Winnipeg last year was the first sign of it.

I have maintained for a while the Sabres great play last year was a result of mostly the goaltenders playing above their head, not just the team in front of them.  If they don't get a repeat performance of that goaltending (top 5 in the league), they are taking a step back.

There are only 2 ways this team is a top-10 team in the league next year:  1.)  they get stellar goaltending (again). I'm not sure the current guys have another season in them like last year. Or 2.) The "young guys" (Östlund, Helenius, Kulich, Benson, Quinn and Doan) step up and become borderline NHL stars. (I'm talking close to 120+ goals from that group WITH better defensive play)

A healthy Josh Norris would be a great help also, but until I see it I can't count on that for a full season.

Edited August 23 by mjd1001

[mjd1001]

1 hour ago, French Collection said:

Other than Bobrovsky and Vasilevskiy here are the recent Cup winning goalies.

Andersen/Bussi

Hill/Thompson

Kuemper/Francouz

Binnington/Allen

Holtby/Grubauer

Murray/Fleury

Not exactly regular Vezina candidates.
The 90’s Sabres needed Hasek in order to contend, they didn’t have the firepower of the current team.

I would like to get Hellebuyck because it would remove some stress about the ability to win important games but even he has faltered in past playoffs, unable to take good teams very deep. His performance in the Olympics is what you are looking for, not the sub .900 playoff goalie with the Jets.

I think the best opportunity to get him was with the #4 pick but you never know. A 33 year old goalie shouldn’t cost 4 pieces like the Jets may want.

That list of goalies isn't that much better than what the Sabres have, that is the good news. The bad news is that those goalies had much better teams in front of them.

The Sabres need better goaltending. In terms of power play, even strength shot and scoring chance generation, and preventing the other teams from getting chances, they just aren't as good as those teams in front of that list of goalies.

[sabresouth]

Ummm.....

NO

[JohnC]

38 minutes ago, mjd1001 said:

Is the goaltending good enough 'for what'? Good enough to compete for a playoff spot?  Yes.  Good enough to go deep into the playoffs and contend for a cup? Probably not.

I'm also not 100% sure Hellebuyck is the solution.  I'm 50-50 on him, whether he would be a considerable improvement or whether he is not on the downside of his career and the regular season with Winnipeg last year was the first sign of it.

I have maintained for a while the Sabres great play last year was a result of mostly the goaltenders playing above their head, not just the team in front of them.  If they don't get a repeat performance of that goaltending (top 5 in the league), they are taking a step back.

There are only 2 ways this team is a top-10 team in the league next year:  1.)  they get stellar goaltending (again). I'm not sure the current guys have another season in them like last year. Or 2.) The "young guys" (Östlund, Helenius, Kulich, Benson, Quinn and Doan) step up and become borderline NHL stars. (I'm talking close to 120+ goals from that group WITH better defensive play)

A healthy Josh Norris would be a great help also, but until I see it I can't count on that for a full season.

You don’t need that young group you listed to be stars or borderline stars. What you need them to be is individually better this season. That’s realistic and doable.

And don’t totally dismiss the possibility that Norris will be relatively healthy and be a factor. Too many people are mistakingly viewing his  past injury history and automatically projecting it to this season. I  have him as our surprise bonus player.

[Pimlach]

5 hours ago, JohnC said:

https://www.espn.com/nhl/team/stats/_/type/goalie/name/buf

Much of the discussion this offseason has dealt with trading for Hellebuyck. Would trading for Hellebuyck improve our goaltending? Of course, few would argue otherwise. However, the issue then becomes at what cost? I have firmly stated that I would not deal for him if it required giving up young players such as Kulich, Helenius, Quinn or Power. I would reluctantly be willing to considering trading Östlund in such a deal. 

Last year, I saw games where UPL seemed to take the next step and appear to solidify himself as a solid netminder. And then there were games where he relapsed from being a motion-controlled and composed player to frantically moving around the net and exposing his vulnerabilities

The big issue for me is whether UPL has reached the point where he can be a steady goaltender and our anchor goalie. Although I think he can I recognize that many are skeptical about depending on him. I'm comfortable being in the category where I don't see a great need to alter the goalie staffing on this team, especially if it requires subtracting one of our promising young players who are ready to contribute now. I'm comfortable in staying the course. 

Goaltending is more of a concern than the Defense or the forwards.  

Helly is one of the best in league.  

[SABRES 0311]

I think the goaltending over performed a little last year. We’ll need Muel to be the same guy he was for most of last season and Power to be what he was in the playoffs. I think Malenstyn, Krebs, and Carrick becomes even more important late in the third period to protect leads.

So to be more direct….no, our goaltending is not good enough on its own.

[TageMVP]

The goaltending is fine

Did they overperform last year? Lyon did. UPL alternates between good years and bad years. Hes more than capable. Hes gonna step it up after making the playoffs. Guaranteed 

The real culprit was the SHYTTY DEFENSE against Montreal

Did the goalies take a slight step back during the Montreal series? Yes. But ANY goalie would have a hard time saving 500 shots from point blank against any team, and thats exactly what happened against Montreal 

The defense is why we lost that series. Period 

[Eleven]

It isn't, unless Ellis emerges as a star.  Lyon is solid but average UPL is sometimes average and sometimes shaky.

[SabreFinn]

It will be an important year for UPL and especially the beginning of the season. He doesn't need to be better imo, he needs to find concistency, and just as the team in front of him needs to help him better, he needs to give them a steady support and save them when needed, which we know he can do.  Otherwise I expect him traded before christmas.

[JohnC]

25 minutes ago, Pimlach said:

Goaltending is more of a concern than the Defense or the forwards.  

Helly is one of the best in league.  

The issue isn’t whether Helly is a better goalie than what we have. The issue is what will you give up to get him? And you know what my stance is on that trade off. Getting an addition while giving up too many subtractions adds up to a deficit from where you started. I give Jarmo credit for the way he has handled this issue.