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Posted

we are all old enough to remember when the pegulas were taking an absolute hatchet to the Sabres front office. the mandate seemed clear: do more with less.

what changed? my working theory is that bringing in the minority investors to the bills gave the pegulas a bunch of "mad money."

point here really being: i love that the pegulas are investing in the franchise. 

final point: it's pretty cool to have a young astrophysicist phd on the data analytics team. 

https://www.astro.utoronto.ca/people/graduate-students/name/ariel-amaral/

 

 

 

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Posted
1 minute ago, That Aud Smell said:

final point: it's pretty cool to have a young astrophysicist phd on the data analytics team. 

https://www.astro.utoronto.ca/people/graduate-students/name/ariel-amaral/

wait a second - on second thought - get that chick the f**k out of here. 🤣

I’ve submitted my thesis (June 9, 2026), and after I defend (scheduled for August 2026), I’m transitioning into sports data science with a focus on hockey analytics. I’m particularly interested in player evaluation, performance modelling, and data-driven strategy. The pivot is less of a leap than it sounds: the quantitative work I do every day (Bayesian modelling, signal decomposition, validation testing, communicating uncertainty) is the same toolkit that drives modern sports analytics.

I’ve been a sports fan my whole life. Hockey is my favourite (go Leafs go!), but I follow most other major sports too, particularly anything Toronto. The data side of sports is more recent for me, and it’s quickly become the work I want to do next. I’m currently building a hockey analytics portfolio to that end.

This site is where I’m collecting my research, projects, and writing as I work through this transition. You’ll find a mix of academic publications, sports analytics work as I build it out, and other things I’m interested in along the way. Always happy to hear from people working at the intersection of sports and data.

https://ariel-amaral.github.io/

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Posted
Just now, That Aud Smell said:

wait a second - on second thought - get that chick the f**k out of here. 🤣

I’ve submitted my thesis (June 9, 2026), and after I defend (scheduled for August 2026), I’m transitioning into sports data science with a focus on hockey analytics. I’m particularly interested in player evaluation, performance modelling, and data-driven strategy. The pivot is less of a leap than it sounds: the quantitative work I do every day (Bayesian modelling, signal decomposition, validation testing, communicating uncertainty) is the same toolkit that drives modern sports analytics.

I’ve been a sports fan my whole life. Hockey is my favourite (go Leafs go!), but I follow most other major sports too, particularly anything Toronto. The data side of sports is more recent for me, and it’s quickly become the work I want to do next. I’m currently building a hockey analytics portfolio to that end.

This site is where I’m collecting my research, projects, and writing as I work through this transition. You’ll find a mix of academic publications, sports analytics work as I build it out, and other things I’m interested in along the way. Always happy to hear from people working at the intersection of sports and data.

https://ariel-amaral.github.io/

Well she'll need to learn that the Leafs aren't welcome here

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Posted
15 minutes ago, #freejame said:

Go back to Lake Ontario, Ariel, we don’t want your kind here!

lol -- nah, nah.

she and her nerd-dom are welcome here. she's going to help find us the next zach benson.

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Posted
Just now, That Aud Smell said:

lol -- nah, nah.

she and her nerd-dom are welcome here. she's going to help find us the next zach benson.

***** I can do that. Seth Jarvis was the first, Zach Benson was the the 2nd, I think Carbonneau is going to be the 3rd (slightly different but). Now I just have to find the 4th... hmmm

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Posted
46 minutes ago, Brawndo said:

 

A data scientist and a data engineer tell me they are either expanding that department or they are worried someone might leave soon. I hope they are expanding it because that is how McLeod, Benson, Zellweger, Crevier, Kesselring (look they don't all work) ended up in Buffalo. I think that is how they settled on Helenius and Rudolph too... Mrtka was scouts getting their way, no chance in hell analytics was on board with that. Just interesting to see the moves that the social media analytics guys are like "yea that might really work" seem to turn out to be the ones that do. Josh Doan for example was lauded by the analytics community. 

Anyways, I think that the department has some more heft to it. I want a Stanley Cup. 

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Posted (edited)

Why does a team with three goalies need an EBUG?  Shouldn't the one who doesn't dress just be the EBUG for whatever game?

Edited by Eleven
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Posted

Looks like the 2 scientists are basically becoming the right hands for the 2 holdover scientists, who got co-promotions. Ventura’s team went from 3 to 5.

Id have to dig to find my source, but I read Jarmo is big on analytics. During his gap year between here and Columbus that was his focus.

Warsofsky looks like a Zach Redmond replacement.

Posted (edited)
11 minutes ago, Eleven said:

Why does a team with three goalies need an EBUG?  Shouldn't the one who doesn't dress just be the EBUG for whatever game?

That’s what I thought too, but it’s specifically added under the CBA in a way that does not allow for that.

Jarmo implied he thought it was kinda silly.

Curious what kinda scouting a 24-year-old ebug does. Is that part mostly just giving him something to do?

Or is he primarily a scout who also travels with the team and can play in a pinch?

Edited by dudacek
Posted
14 minutes ago, Eleven said:

Why does a team with three goalies need an EBUG?  Shouldn't the one who doesn't dress just be the EBUG for whatever game?

The home team supplies an EBUG for both the home and road team. Our 3rd NHL roster goalie isn’t going in net for the road team. 

My view is that the EBUG is dumb. If you lose two goalies to injury and you don’t have a 3rd on the roster, then play with 6 skaters or get a volunteer roster player to throw on the pads.

  • Disagree 1
Posted
1 hour ago, That Aud Smell said:

we are all old enough to remember when the pegulas were taking an absolute hatchet to the Sabres front office. the mandate seemed clear: do more with less.

what changed? my working theory is that bringing in the minority investors to the bills gave the pegulas a bunch of "mad money."

point here really being: i love that the pegulas are investing in the franchise. 

final point: it's pretty cool to have a young astrophysicist phd on the data analytics team. 

https://www.astro.utoronto.ca/people/graduate-students/name/ariel-amaral/

 

 

 

Or maybe COVID is over?

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Posted
20 minutes ago, Eleven said:

Why does a team with three goalies need an EBUG?  Shouldn't the one who doesn't dress just be the EBUG for whatever game?

Only 2 goalies are active any given night. And this:

New EBUG Eligibility CriteriaUnder the updated Collective Bargaining Agreement. A designated emergency backup goalie must meet strict qualifications to protect competitive integrity:

Must never have played in an NHL game under a standard player contract.

Must have fewer than 80 games of professional hockey experience.

Cannot have played any professional hockey within the previous three seasons.

Must be declared by the team prior to the start of the season or 24 hours before a game.

5 minutes ago, PASabreFan said:

Maybe get some players in here?

Great idea, sport.

Posted
5 minutes ago, Archie Lee said:

The home team supplies an EBUG for both the home and road team. Our 3rd NHL roster goalie isn’t going in net for the road team. 

My view is that the EBUG is dumb. If you lose two goalies to injury and you don’t have a 3rd on the roster, then play with 6 skaters or get a volunteer roster player to throw on the pads.

All teams have their own EBUGs now. We don't loan them out anymore.

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Posted (edited)

Director of reserve list scouting and college recruitment is quite the title.

Is Weissman’s job to essentially identify college free agents and other team’s unsigned prospects worth pursuing?

Edited by dudacek
Posted
20 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Director of reserve list scouting and college recruitment is quite the title.

Is Weissman’s job to essentially identify college free agents and other team’s unsigned prospects worth pursuing?

With NIL being a thing and so many Jr kids now college eligible, I think they believe there might be better college UFAs as well as guys who might do the 4yrs and hit free agency. Just speculation on my part. 

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Posted
1 hour ago, Eleven said:

Why does a team with three goalies need an EBUG?  Shouldn't the one who doesn't dress just be the EBUG for whatever game?

Apparently, presuming the Sabres do intend to keep the 3 Headed Goalie MonsterTM alive for another season, the Sabres were unsuccessful in getting the criteria to be the EBUG modified.  The EBUG can't be an NHLer (the Sabres got dispensation to allow Lyon into that role in one road game last year, but he was not allowed onto the bench; he had to stay in the dressing room after he'd gotten into his equipment) and can have only minimal professional experience.  He also has to be available for every game.  

Not sure if they'd allow teams to have an actual legit goalie, rather than a beer leaguer, in the playoffs; they should, but haven't looked at the MOU close enough recently enough to know if there's an exception there for the playoffs.

Posted
Just now, Taro T said:

The EBUG can't be an NHLer

This is just stupid.  But thank you for explaining the rule.

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Posted
1 hour ago, PASabreFan said:

Maybe get some players in here?

The Sabres have 13 forwards under contract for this season NOT including Helenius or Kulich. 

The Sabres have 7 defensemen under contract for this season. 

The Sabres have 3 goalies under contract. 

That brings them to 23 players plus Kulich and Helenius. They quite literally have a full 23 man roster with 2 extra forwards un-accounted for. 

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Posted
24 minutes ago, Eleven said:

This is just stupid.  But thank you for explaining the rule.

Pretty sure the rule is in place to keep from hosing the AHL teams and guys like Ellis.  If teams could have a 24th player that's a goalie that is only allowed to play if the other 2 goalies get hurt, then the goaltending in the AHL goes to squat and teams put guys like Ellis into a limbo.

But, the REAL easy solution is to say, IF on your 23 man roster you have 3 goalies, then the odd man out on any given night can be the EBUG.  Otherwise, follow the criteria from the MOU to have that role filled.  Easy peazy.

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