Athletic: Sabres have the 7th most "Contract Efficient" roster

[Taro T]

17 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Goaltending is my biggest concern as well.

I'd trade places there with Boston and Tampa. Is our situation really obviously worse than any other team we're battling with?

No.  (Well, other than Carolina.  They are IMHO demonstrably better than the Sabres at present.)  (And realize you're speaking strictly to GTing; personally am looking at the teams as a whole.)

And, personally expect that this team, as constructed today, is still a playoff team but don't expect they have much margin of error for that to remain true.  Add Hellebucyk and they have plenty of room to handle setbacks and they get in the conversation of being a team the Canes have to be concerned with as a team that maybe could take them out in the 3rd round.

If FLA is healthy, expect they're a playoff team.  On paper, the Habs, Bolts, Cats, and Canes are better than the Sabres; but except for the Canes none are significantly better.  The Caps and Filly might have improved, but even if they have they don't really factor in as 3 teams have to get in from their division.  It'll be interesting to see if the Otters end up better without Tkachuk or if they take a step back without him.  Expect the B's will be the team sliding out of the playoffs with the Cats getting in; but they're like that monster in the horror movie that you keep expecting is finally dead but it keeps coming back.  Until the B's have been vaporized, they're still going to be at least on the edge of the playoffs.

The Pens have to fall off at some point (time catches up to all, even Sid the Kid will eventually succumb) and the Aisles never seem impressive (well except for the rookie D man and their goaltending).  Might the Devils get it back together or might the BJs finally not suck, maybe.  But they have to show they can do it before it'll be expected.

The Rags are a mess; wonder just how much it would take to pry Shesterkin out of Manhattan.  Almost definitely way more than it would be worth.  

[Archie Lee]

23 hours ago, Taro T said:

... PROVIDED the goaltending doesn't torpedo the entire thing.

Goaltending could torpedo the season.  In general though, if the goaltending regresses and the Sabres miss the playoffs, I think it will be letting Jarmo and Ruff off the hook to blame the goalies. The Cup Champion Hurricanes finished with the 2nd best record in the NHL last season, and (per MoneyPuck) their goaltending was 20th in goals saved above expected (GSAx). Vegas, the other Cup finalist, was 29th in GSAx. Good coaching and talent in other areas, can save a team from below-average, even bad, goaltending. 

Certainly the current trio does not have a deep enough sample size to justify real confidence. They do still need to prove that they can, in some combination, provide a solid follow-up to last season's strong performance. On balance though, I think the evidence leans more towards they will (or can) than towards they won't (or can't).

- UPL has been a full-time NHL goalie for 3 seasons. In those seasons he was very good (.910), very bad (.887), and then very good again (.910). 

- Lyon, though older, has also only been a full-time NHL goalie for 3 seasons. Also like UPL, he has been up and down though to a lesser extreme: one good season (.904), a bad one (.896), and then a good one (.907). 

- Ellis has only played 16 NHL games, all last season, and had a solid .903 as a rookie. In his two prior minor league seasons he was right around .923.

I don't want to over-analyze the general fan psychology on this. It does seem to me though, that UPL's 3 season record (and to a lesser degree, Lyon's) has people thinking there is a pattern and that we are due for the down year. I think that is largely an unfounded fear and is being overly pessimistic. I would say the trio is unlikely to repeat last year's regular season (5th in GSAx), but there is no reason to think they will collapse either.

Of course, there is always the option for the coach to do a better job installing a structure that doesn't require goaltending to bail them out.

 

 

Edited August 2 by Archie Lee

[Doohickie]

Spoiler:  The Hockey Guy has Buffalo at Number 6 in his mid-summer power rankings

 

[LGR4GM]

3 hours ago, Archie Lee said:

Goaltending could torpedo the season.  In general though, if the goaltending regresses and the Sabres miss the playoffs, I think it will be letting Jarmo and Ruff off the hook to blame the goalies. The Cup Champion Hurricanes finished with the 2nd best record in the NHL last season, and (per MoneyPuck) their goaltending was 20th in goals saved above expected (GSAx). Vegas, the other Cup finalist, was 29th in GSAx. Good coaching and talent in other areas, can save a team from below-average, even bad, goaltending. 

Certainly the current trio does not have a deep enough sample size to be justify real confidence. They do still need to prove that they can, in some combination, provide a solid follow-up to last season's strong performance. On balance though, I think the evidence leans more towards they will (or can) than towards they won't (or can't).

- UPL has been a full-time NHL goalie for 3 seasons. In those seasons he was very good (.910), very bad (.887), and then very good again (.910). 

- Lyon, though older, has also only been a full-time NHL goalie for 3 seasons. Also like UPL, he has been up and down though to a lesser extreme: one good season (.904), a bad one (.896), and then a good one (.907). 

- Ellis has only played 16 NHL games, all last season, and had a solid .903 as a rookie. In his two prior minor league seasons he was right around .923.

I don't want to over-analyze the general fan psychology on this. It does seem to me though, that UPL's 3 season record (and to a lesser degree, Lyon's) has people thinking there is a pattern and that we are due for the down year. I think that is largely an unfounded fear and is being overly pessimistic. I would say the trio is unlikely to repeat last year's regular season (5th in GSAx), but there is no reason to think they will collapse either.

Of course, there is always the option for the coach to do a better job installing a structure that doesn't require goaltending to bail them out.

 

 

The Hurricanes play a totally different suppression game than buffalo

[Nacho Libre]

On 8/1/2026 at 9:27 AM, PASabreFan said:

Raise the banner:

GOOD SITUATION

Raise the banner, AI cadence is here to stay 

[Pimlach]

On 7/31/2026 at 12:27 AM, TageMVP said:

Who gives a fukk 

They also have the 32nd best GM too 

 

On 7/31/2026 at 9:11 AM, PASabreFan said:

Much ado about Jarmo.

Sounds like Heckle and Jeckle are bored this summer  

Jarmo being criticized for his GM work with Columbus is really bizarre coming from fans of a team that hired Tim Murray, Jason  Boterill and Kevyn Adams all in succession.   14 losing years in a row, right?  
 

How about giving Jarmo at least ONE YEAR before the floggings start?  

Edited August 4 by Pimlach

[PASabreFan]

On 8/4/2026 at 9:23 AM, Pimlach said:

 

Sounds like Heckle and Jeckle are bored this summer  

Jarmo being criticized for his GM work with Columbus is really bizarre coming from fans of a team that hired Tim Murray, Jason  Boterill and Kevyn Adams all in succession.   14 losing years in a row, right?  
 

How about giving Jarmo at least ONE YEAR before the floggings start?  

I have no idea what he did in Columbus.

This is the NHL, not a development league for managers.

He has a body of work that is fair to evaluate.

He gets Thomas, the Sabres make a real run at it, then he gets CH. Are you waiting one year to praise him?

Edited August 5 by PASabreFan

[Pimlach]

1 hour ago, PASabreFan said:

I have no idea what he did in Columbus.

This is the NHL, not a development league for managers.

He has a body of work that is fair to evaluate.

He gets Thomas, the Sabres make a real run at it, then he gets CH. Are you waiting one year to praise him?

Oh please, where are you coming from? 

Were you OK with the Sabres developing the likes of Tim Murray, Jason Botterill, and Kevyn Adams?  All of whom were wanna-be GMs at the time.  Adams wasn't even working in Hockey Operations prior to becoming the Sabres GM.  

Jarmo was an amateur Scouting Director in St Louis for a long time, and a very good one.  His regular season record in Columbus as a GM was  410 wins, 362 losses, and 97 overtime/shootout losses (.528 points percentage) across 869 games from February 2013 to February 2024.   That included turning around a doormat Blue Jacket team into 5 playoff appearances in a unpopular mid-western city with no palm tree, plus taxes.   No prior Pegula GM has that good of a record despite tanking and acquiring All Star players along he way.  

Jarmo has been in the Sabres GM job for 9 months.  His past reputation was of making big moves.  Maybe he see things differently now?  

He did not pull off the trades for Thomas or Hellebuyck, or even sign P Kane.  I would have like to see any of these things happen.   The prices were steep and he did not make a move.  

Does he get credit for the 109 point season?   Obviously he doesn't get all of it, but he gets some of it. 

I am giving him a full season to show what he can do.  In that time he might not get praise at all.   This is not developing him, its being fair. 

 

Edited August 5 by Pimlach

[PASabreFan]

3 minutes ago, Pimlach said:

Oh please, where are you coming from? 

Were you OK with the Sabres developing the likes of Tim Murray, Jason Botterill, and Kevyn Adams?  All of whom were wanna-be GMs at the time.  Adams wasn't even working in Hockey Operations prior to becoming the Sabres GM.  

Jarmo was an amateur Scouting Director in St Louis for a long time, and a very good one.  His regular season record in Columbus as a GM was  410 wins, 362 losses, and 97 overtime/shootout losses (.528 points percentage) across 869 games from February 2013 to February 2024.   That included turning around a doormat Blue Jacket team into 5 playoff appearances in a unpopular mid-western city with no palm tree, plus taxes.   No prior Pegula GM has that good of a record despite tanking and acquiring All Star players along he way.  

Jarmo has been in the Sabres GM job for 9 months.  His past reputation was of making big moves.  Maybe he see things differently now?  

He did not pull off the trades for Thomas or Hellebuyck, or even sign P Kane.  I would have like to see any of these things happen.   The prices were steep and he did not make a move.  

Does he get credit for the 109 point season?   Obviously he doesn't get all of it, but he gets some of it. 

I am giving him a full season to show what he can do.  In that time he might not get praise at all.   This is not developing him, its being fair. 

 

I just wrote this is not a development league for GMs. Why would I have been happy with all of Terry's noobies? Where are YOU coming from?

So are you waiting until next spring to evaluate JK?

[Pimlach]

2 hours ago, PASabreFan said:

I just wrote this is not a development league for GMs. Why would I have been happy with all of Terry's noobies? Where are YOU coming from?

So are you waiting until next spring to evaluate JK?

Why are you unhappy with Jarmo?  Do you think 9 months is a fair time to evaluate him and make a change?  Do you see him daily and see what impact he has on the entire staff and the players?  

As for me, It may not take until spring for me to form an opinion, but a full year on the job doesn't not sound like much for a fanbase that put up with 6 years of Adams and 14 years of amateurish management in general.  

Right now my opinion of him is a high one, but that is based more on reputation than on results.   I can wait for the results.  

 

Edited August 5 by Pimlach

[Hoss]

25 minutes ago, PASabreFan said:

So are you waiting until next spring to evaluate JK?

Is it unreasonable for someone to do so?

But also, evaluations evolve. People loved Darcy until they didn't. I think this offseason has been a failure from Jarmo, but if the team is a playoff team through all of next season and can sustain success, I'll accept that I was incorrect in that evaluation. But, if they miss the playoffs next season then my evaluation becomes harsher.

I certainly am not sitting here thinking he's some massive failure or that I need to spend my own energy feeling harshly negative toward him at this point, only nine months into the work that is often 5-10+ years.

[Hoss]

17 minutes ago, Pimlach said:

for a fanbase that put up with 6 years of Adams and 14 years of amateurish management in general.  

Not a fan of giving the current regime a break because of the failures of those who came before them. A large number of Bills fans will proudly tell you that they couldn't care less about not winning the Super Bowl and simply are just happy to be "relevant" after the drought.

I'm not saying that's an invalid opinion, it's just not for me. I will evaluate Jarmo on the job he does, especially in this moment with the team putting up 109 points.

[PASabreFan]

Will his first nine months be part of the evaluation? How great will he have to be in the next nine months to get high marks overall?

I'm just ahead of the curve as per usual.

[...]

11 hours ago, PASabreFan said:

So are you waiting until next spring to evaluate JK?

If one is being fair, you have to. His big moves are, to us, gambles that all of the young talent that was here and that he acquired are better moves than bringing in "marquee" talent and, by doing so, sacrificing some of that young talent.

 

It's like judging the taste of the meal before the chef is finished making it.

[#freejame]

Ten percent of 18,157 responses in the Athletic survey view the Buffalo Sabres as the most improved team this offseason. 

[dudacek]

1 hour ago, #freejame said:

Ten percent of 18,157 responses in the Athletic survey view the Buffalo Sabres as the most improved team this offseason. 

The Tuch’s neighbours and former household staff stuffed the ballot box?

That’s utterly bizarre to me.

 

Some weird residue of “winning” the Byram trade?

[Ctaeth]

Some people in here making light of the sabres being in a good spot with their contracts.  A good cap situation isn't going to make you competitive, but a bad cap situation can definitely make you not competitive.  Better to be on the plus side here 

[#freejame]

29 minutes ago, dudacek said:

The Tuch’s neighbours and former household staff stuffed the ballot box?

That’s utterly bizarre to me.

 

Some weird residue of “winning” the Byram trade?

I couldn’t tell ya one way or the other. I just thought it was interesting.

[JohnC]

20 hours ago, Pimlach said:

Why are you unhappy with Jarmo?  Do you think 9 months is a fair time to evaluate him and make a change?  Do you see him daily and see what impact he has on the entire staff and the players?  

As for me, It may not take until spring for me to form an opinion, but a full year on the job doesn't not sound like much for a fanbase that put up with 6 years of Adams and 14 years of amateurish management in general.  

Right now my opinion of him is a high one, but that is based more on reputation than on results.   I can wait for the results.  

 

What was wrong with last year's results? Of course, you can't form a firm judgment on him based on after taking over the position. But what is there to criticize on how he handled himself during his stint last year? I also believe that he handled the Tuch and Byram situations well. As you point out, compared to the previous inhabitants of his position, he is handling his position well. 

[LGR4GM]

2 hours ago, #freejame said:

Ten percent of 18,157 responses in the Athletic survey view the Buffalo Sabres as the most improved team this offseason. 

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/7489491/2026/08/06/nhl-fan-survey-2026-27-season-expansion/

4% think the Sabres will win the Stanley Cup as well. 

[Pimlach]

10 hours ago, PASabreFan said:

Will his first nine months be part of the evaluation? How great will he have to be in the next nine months to get high marks overall?

I'm just ahead of the curve as per usual.

Of course his first 9 months are part of it, and while I share concern for the lack of a big off season move, his grade is good so far.  

 Are you really ahead of the curve?   Sounds more like you wanted a few big moves made just to feel better about the team.  

To answer your question,  assuming linear progression and improvement, Jarmo’s has to get another 100+ point season and then get past the second playoff round to say the team improved.   That is a lot.  

What threshold did you grade Murray, Boterill, and Adams after 9 months and after 18 months?   Why is it unrealistic to think Jarmo will not get at least 2 seasons, if not more?  
 

Edited August 6 by Pimlach

[SabresFan69420]

1 hour ago, Pimlach said:

Of course his first 9 months are part of it, and while I share concern for the lack of a big off season move, his grade is good so far.  

 Are you really ahead of the curve?   Sounds more like you wanted a few big moves made just to feel better about the team.  

To answer your question,  assuming linear progression and improvement, Jarmo’s has to get another 100+ point season and then get past the second playoff round to say the team improved.   That is a lot.  

What threshold did you grade Murray, Boterill, and Adams after 9 months and after 18 months?   Why is it unrealistic to think Jarmo will not get at least 2 seasons, if not more?  
 

I think the realistic lens to view this through is next offseason. The salary cap gives significant flexibility over this year where we may see that big splash.

The only way I would be happy with big/future leveraging deals is when we realistically think those 1-2 deals win us a cup. I think this team (who I love) needs at least a couple more seasons to get the maturity needed to win it all. So, I am happy with some good, shrewd moves this offseason to assess what we have before the window really opens up.

[Pimlach]

10 hours ago, SabresFan69420 said:

I think the realistic lens to view this through is next offseason. The salary cap gives significant flexibility over this year where we may see that big splash.

The only way I would be happy with big/future leveraging deals is when we realistically think those 1-2 deals win us a cup. I think this team (who I love) needs at least a couple more seasons to get the maturity needed to win it all. So, I am happy with some good, shrewd moves this offseason to assess what we have before the window really opens up.

I am with you.   I want to see moves that help the team improve, but realistic moves, not desperation moves  when he has only been at the helm less than 1 year.    And lets keep in mind that so far no team has met the Blues lofty demands for Rob Thomas.  

Edited August 7 by Pimlach

[TageMVP]

On 8/4/2026 at 6:23 AM, Pimlach said:

How about giving Jarmo at least ONE YEAR before the floggings start?  

Nah 

[thewookie1]

6 hours ago, Pimlach said:

I am with you.   I want to see moves that help the team improve, but realistic moves, not desperation move when he has only been at the helm less than 1 year.    And lets keep in mind that so far no team has met the Blues lofty demands for Rob Thomas.  

Nor Hellebuyck 

It’s not like Jarmo has been actively out bid on offers. He was blocked by a NTC with Parayko. And Thomas and Hellebuyck were priced into the stratosphere. Kane, while I would have liked him, is far from a 2x8mil player