Inside the Sabres scouting: Noah Östlund

[dudacek]

Fairburn launches a summer series of articles that will also feature Benson, Helenius and Kulich.

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/7442641/2026/07/27/buffalo-sabres-noah-Östlund-prospect/?unlocked_article_code=1.01A.XPMP.igvyr88vHWGX&source=emp_shared_article&smid=ta-ios-share
 

Some good insight on Noah:

• they had him in their top 10
• see him as a true centre
• flipflopped on him and Kuli multiple times while building their list 
• saw him as the driver and best player of the Swedish teams in his draft year.
• scouts and analytics team both loved him, spent a lot of time diving into why his offensive production didn't match the underlying numbers or the eye test.
• conclusion was his focus on D, and the fact his teammates didn’t match his hockey sense
• Quiet competitiveness makes him a coaches dream
• Strength always the main concern

I've got reservations about his durability and his ceiling, but I really respect the way he plays.

 

Edited July 27 by dudacek

[Taro T]

7 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Fairburn launches a summer series of articles that will also feature Benson, Helenius and Kulich.

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/7442641/2026/07/27/buffalo-sabres-noah-Östlund-prospect/?unlocked_article_code=1.01A.XPMP.igvyr88vHWGX&source=emp_shared_article&smid=ta-ios-share
 

Some good insight on Noah:

• they had him in their top 10
• see him as a true centre
• flipflopped on him and Kuli multiple times while building their list 
• saw him as the driver and best player of the Swedish teams in his draft year.
• scouts and analytics team both loved him, spent a lot of time diving into why his offensive production didn't match the underlying numbers or the eye test.
• conclusion was his focus on D, and the fact his teammates didn’t match his hockey sense
• Quiet competitiveness makes him a coaches dream
• Strength always the main concern

I've got reservations about his durability and his ceiling, but I really respect the way he plays.

 

Was very happy with the pick at the time because it sounded like he was the straw that was stirring the drink on his line with the 2 other really good wingers.

Have him as the one of the kids that would reluctantly offer in a package for Hellebucyk (or something else that major) just because of the injury history.  But if he remains a Sabre for the next decade really doubt we'll be griping much about it.  Like his 200' game and his playmaking.

Really like that the Sabres seem to put an inordinant weight on hockey smarts.  In the long run, especially if they keep a good number of big guys on the roster (even if they don't play particularly big) they should stay relevant for a long time.

[Carmel Corn]

I sure hope he works out.  He’s the closest thing we have to a natural center.  I actually prefer him at center vs. say Kulich.

He’s also the key remaining piece to the Eichel trade (not trying to re-litigate that matter).  

[dudacek]

Would have been real interesting to see what the Sabres top 10 actually was that year.

Slavkovsky, Nemec, Cooley, Wright, Gauthier went 1-5. Should we assume all five were in Buffalo's top 10?

We know they were very high on Kasper and had a deal in place with Ottawa to draft him at 7 that Matt Murray nixed.

And they literally drafted 3 of their top 10: Savoie, Kulich and Östlund.

I find this stuff fascinating and further proof of how differently draft boards are stacked from team to team, and how irrelevant "consensus" is in those knee-jerk post-draft reactions.

Edited July 27 by dudacek

[LGR4GM]

1 hour ago, dudacek said:

Would have been real interesting to see what the Sabres top 10 actually was that year.

Slavkovsky, Nemec, Cooley, Wright, Gauthier went 1-5. Should we assume all five were in Buffalo's top 10?

We know they were very high on Kasper and had a deal in place with Ottawa to draft him at 7 that Matt Murray nixed.

And they literally drafted 3 of their top 10: Savoie, Kulich and Östlund.

I find this stuff fascinating and further proof of how differently draft boards are stacked from team to team, and how irrelevant "consensus" is in those knee-jerk post-draft reactions.

That doesn't mean their top 10 was right. 

I worry about their over reliance on "this guy is just physical immature" because like skating or shooting, it doesn't always get better. 

[dudacek]

42 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

That doesn't mean their top 10 was right. 

Absolutely not.

I just like insight in how their board differed from consensus and how close/far they were on specific players.

Love the story of how the Flyers were desperately praying Bobby Sanguinetti was going to drop to them in 2006, but the Rangers snatched him up one pick before theirs.

The next guy - well down - on their board was Claude Giroux.

So much of the draft is luck 

[LGR4GM]

14 hours ago, dudacek said:

Absolutely not.

I just like insight in how their board differed from consensus and how close/far they were on specific players.

Love the story of how the Flyers were desperately praying Bobby Sanguinetti was going to drop to them in 2006, but the Rangers snatched him up one pick before theirs.

The next guy - well down - on their board was Claude Giroux.

So much of the draft is luck 

So much of the draft is not doing dumb things. Zachary Senyshyn over Matt Barzal for example. 

[Flashsabre]

10 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

So much of the draft is not doing dumb things. Zachary Senyshyn over Matt Barzal for example. 

That was the year the Bruins had 3 firsts consecutively. Might be one of the worst drafting performances ever. They could have set themselves up to still be a juggernaut today if they would have picked wisely. The talent taken after their picks was extraordinary.

www.mynhldraft.com/2015-draft/2015-nhl-draft-results/round-1
 

Imagine they picked Barzal, Connor and Chabot instead or JEE.

 

[LGR4GM]

29 minutes ago, Flashsabre said:

That was the year the Bruins had 3 firsts consecutively. Might be one of the worst drafting performances ever. They could have set themselves up to still be a juggernaut today if they would have picked wisely. The talent taken after their picks was extraordinary.

www.mynhldraft.com/2015-draft/2015-nhl-draft-results/round-1
 

Imagine they picked Barzal, Connor and Chabot instead or JEE.

 

Might be the worst 1st round drafting performance of the modern era. 

[That Aud Smell]

If Östlund can figure out how to be durable, he will be an excellent NHL'er.

Maybe not quite a Byng candidate - but just on the periphery of that territory.

(Having typed that, I think his theoretical Byng candidacy could be most compromised by his willingness to be truculent when the circumstances so require. Who remembers Lindy's post-game speech that was posted to the socials that started out: "OSTIE IN FIRST!" to reference the fact that Östlund jumped someone who'd taken a liberty with a Sabre teammate.) 

[tom webster]

2 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

So much of the draft is not doing dumb things. Zachary Senyshyn over Matt Barzal for example. 

Or drafting Gene Carr right before Rick Martin, thank you St. Louis.

[inkman]

2 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

So much of the draft is not doing dumb things. Zachary Senyshyn over Matt Barzal for example. 

As I’ve looked through drafts from the last 20 years, it’s drafting the exception that kills teams. Ten players in the top 15 will be excellent, just make sure you don’t get one of the 5 that don’t. Easier said than done but there are underlying metrics to guide evaluators. Instead they rely on things like “intangibles” or “projection”. I’m looking at the Mrkta pick now and it screams he’s one of the misses from the draft. I hated it when they took him, and still hate it today. 

[Taro T]

31 minutes ago, tom webster said:

Or drafting Gene Carr right before Rick Martin, thank you St. Louis.

Or trading very high 1st rounders for old/broken guys.  Pollock made a habit of stealing 1sts from expansion teams and Bowman did that pretty well himself when he 1st got to Buffalo.  (Korab & Martin)

[LGR4GM]

55 minutes ago, inkman said:

As I’ve looked through drafts from the last 20 years, it’s drafting the exception that kills teams. Ten players in the top 15 will be excellent, just make sure you don’t get one of the 5 that don’t. Easier said than done but there are underlying metrics to guide evaluators. Instead they rely on things like “intangibles” or “projection”. I’m looking at the Mrkta pick now and it screams he’s one of the misses from the draft. I hated it when they took him, and still hate it today. 

Justin Carbonneau is a my 2025 draft hill. 

[inkman]

32 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Justin Carbonneau is a my 2025 draft hill. 

Mrtka seems like the last leg in the RD overcorrection by GMKA. We already have a pipe line chock full of RD, what was the point? Not to mention we doubled down on it in this years draft. 

[tom webster]

11 minutes ago, inkman said:

Mrtka seems like the last leg in the RD overcorrection by GMKA. We already have a pipe line chock full of RD, what was the point? Not to mention we doubled down on it in this years draft. 

The thing is, the pick was completely contrary to what they were doing up till then. They were wowed by his size. He could still prove to be a valuable asset but they would have been better served listening to the analytics team on this one.

[LGR4GM]

5 minutes ago, tom webster said:

The thing is, the pick was completely contrary to what they were doing up till then. They were wowed by his size. He could still prove to be a valuable asset but they would have been better served listening to the analytics team on this one.

Benjamin Kindel. 

[tom webster]

36 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Benjamin Kindel. 

That is apparently who the analytics team wanted.

[inkman]

46 minutes ago, tom webster said:

The thing is, the pick was completely contrary to what they were doing up till then. They were wowed by his size. He could still prove to be a valuable asset but they would have been better served listening to the analytics team on this one.

 

38 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Benjamin Kindel. 

 

Just now, tom webster said:

That is apparently who the analytics team wanted.

@LGR4GM has really influenced my thinking process, in conjunction with actual player performance.  Serious outliers aside (Nathan Gerbe or that 7 foot dude at Penn State), size just doesn’t seem like a stat worth deliberating.  It has a place, just not every place. 

[LGR4GM]

26 minutes ago, inkman said:

 

 

@LGR4GM has really influenced my thinking process, in conjunction with actual player performance.  Serious outliers aside (Nathan Gerbe or that 7 foot dude at Penn State), size just doesn’t seem like a stat worth deliberating.  It has a place, just not every place. 

Anything 5'11" to like 6'3" is just all variations of the same thing. If they weren't 18yr olds, it might matter more but it is so hard to find impactful NHL players and size is such a minor factor in that. I should add for defense I think it matters a bit more due to reach and lane clogging. The bold is the perfect way to phrase this.

[ska-T Chitown]

I went all-in on Ostie ... the winnings are staring to pour in from my Ebay rampage. Rookie this, outburst that; double jersey here, one of 19 rookie autograph there.

If he hits, we're eating at sizzler, boys!

[thewookie1]

8 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

Anything 5'11" to like 6'3" is just all variations of the same thing. If they weren't 18yr olds, it might matter more but it is so hard to find impactful NHL players and size is such a minor factor in that. I should add for defense I think it matters a bit more due to reach and lane clogging. The bold is the perfect way to phrase this.

Pretty much my only hang up on Bjork in the draft was his size and the fact we already have Benson filling the small guy with a big dog in him role. I would of questioned having 2 sub 5’9” players in the Top 6

[ska-T Chitown]

1 hour ago, ska-T Chitown said:

I went all-in on Ostie ... the winnings are staring to pour in from my Ebay rampage. Rookie this, outburst that; double jersey here, one of 19 rookie autograph there.

If he hits, we're eating at sizzler, boys!

Off topic - but all this US with Canada beef has got to stop ... it is really affecting shipping and import fees and shocker Canada is where most of the good hockey cards are being sold ... Stop this madness!!!

[Huckleberry]

I know when we drafted him, I read some swedish scout report comparing his hockey IQ and defense to Peter forsberg.  Even at just 70% that would be nice.

[LGR4GM]

7 hours ago, thewookie1 said:

Pretty much my only hang up on Bjork in the draft was his size and the fact we already have Benson filling the small guy with a big dog in him role. I would of questioned having 2 sub 5’9” players in the Top 6

Benson is 5'10"