Let's Assume: Lineups for Opening Night

[Pimlach]

1 hour ago, JohnC said:

I don't understand why you are being so pessimistic, or appear to be? The team lost two players from last year's roster. In my view, the addition of Crevier and Zerwillinger should compensate for the departure of Byram. The more substantive loss is Toss. And that apparent deficit relates more to his defense and PK prowess than his scoring, which I believe can be made up from players already on the roster. 

As you and many others point out, one of the key questions involves our goaltending. Last year's goaltending rotation was good. Could it get better? I think so. There were many games where UPL was stout when he played positionally sound and played without a lot of motion. Can he be more consistent with his good game and have fewer relapses with his frantic play? I believe so. And when Lyon is not overused, he is consistently good. And don't discount the possibility that Ellis provides depth that few teams have at that position.

The key to this season is the young players (Kulich, Östlund, Helenius, Power, Quinn, Benson and Doan) continuing on with the normal progression that young players make as they gain experience. 

I don't believe that the Sabres will match the 109 pt total they had last year. But that won't be due to the team being weaker as it will be due to other teams being healthier and getting back to where they should be in the standings. 

Needless to say, I'm more optimistic than most are here about this upcoming season. Last year, the Sabres were the surprise team in the league. Now we are more of an established and relevant team in one of them might the league. What a difference a year makes!

Optimism is fine.   Losing Tuch and Byram subtracts a lot of leadership and talent.  They were a big part of what made the Sabres look more established and relevant last season.  

Crevier and Zellweger will not compensate for Byram.   Byram was a luxury first pair talent playing on our 2nd pair.   It is the remaining top 3 defenders that will have to make us forget Byram.   Zellweger might  play with Power but he is not a plug and play guy at Byram's level.  His speed and skills could make him a Byram-lite kind of player.   We will see what he is like in the defensive zone.  Owen Power taking a step forward with a more consistent and physical game would help Zellweger, or whoever gets on the 2nd pairing.  It is time for Owen Power to take that step.  If he does our defense will be fine.  

Crevier is a 3rd pair player with a good shot and hopefully some PK skills.  He will improve the 3rd pair if he plays better than what Kesselring was supposed to be.  Or he might be another Stanley. 

Benson and Doan are the keys to not missing Tuch so much.   Will Zack Benson be "playoff Benson" in the regular season?  Doan is coming off of a surprising 25 goal and 52 point season, can he produce offense and provide some of Tuch's two way game?  I think he can but we will see.  

Quinn will be 25, he is a physically full grown and the injuries are behind him.   This should be the year he takes a major step.  

I see the goaltending as a concern.  Maybe UPL can get better, as in more consistent?  Maybe Ellis gets better?  We know what Lyon is, he is a backup that can get hot and win you some games for awhile.  

Kulich, Östlund and Helenius  - it will be interesting to see who fits where and how they are used.   We won't know until the season starts.  

109 points will always be hard to beat for any team.  The rest of the division got better.   The Sabres will not surprise anyone or be taken lightly.  

I think this is a playoff team but a lot has to happen and they have to recapture the work ethic that got them out of the hole last season. 

 

[Taro T]

On 7/30/2026 at 11:02 AM, mjd1001 said:

For the last few months, this has been my biggest concern and the biggest thing I don't agree with.

They were 3rd in the entire league in save percentage. A 3 headed goalie monster of UPL (who the year before was one of the worst starting goalies in the league), Lyon (journeyman) and Ellis (waiver pickup) had the 3rd best save percentage.

Up until Dec 9, the Sabres were the worst team in the east and 4th from the bottom in the standings in the entire league.  They turned it around after that, and to do so they had the BEST save percentage in the entire league the rest of the way (50+ games) and it wasn't even close.   The Sabres were at .911 the rest of the way. 2nd was .903.  The .008 points was the gap between #1 and $2...and that same gap existed between #2 and #10.

The reason the Sabres lost in the playoffs to Montreal was they didn't get that same level of goaltending. They got it (for the most part) against Boston and they won. Their goaltending wasn't as good vs Montreal and they lost.

I really hope I'm wrong about this, but I don't expect them to get top-3 goaltending in the league next year, and the VERY top goaltending in the league for stretches as long as half the season or more.  

And I don't think the team/management expects it either. If they thought this group of 3 guys would repeated last years performance, there is no way they would have been in on Hellebuyck.

I know I'm repeating many posts I have made recently, but if the goaltending just drops down to 10th best overall (which is still good), and everything else stays the same (Tuch and Byram are replaced with equal performances from the young guys coming up), then this team is struggling to make the playoffs, at about an 85-92 point pace.

I'm really hoping Doan and Benson get more minutes, Helenius and Östlund are evern better than we thought, and the forward group is BETTER than it was last year even with Tuch missing.  If that doesn't happen, you are going to need Vezina quality goaltending from your top netminder.

Really do appreciate the effort you've put into this.  It brings some very useful data points to the discussion.

That said, while the overall numbers from the publicly available sites show everything minus the goaltending was essentially the same pre- and post-Dec 9; the eye test doesn't support that.  And expect that if those scoring chances and HDSC's got parsed within those categories we'd see that the HDSC's against were significantly reduced in quality after that Edmonton game that got everything rolling.  (They now had a stick on them when the cross-ice pass got through; or they had a little less space on that partial breakaway shot; or the shot from the slot was now at the very top of it rather than from that sweet spot that's far enough out that you can shoot at just about everything and you're too close for the goalie to react; etc.)  It also seemed that the PK got worse as the season went on and it seemed some of the overall metrics might've reflected that.  (Don't know that for certain, am actually asking if that's the case.  Again, from the eye test, that seemed to be becoming a trouble spot down the stretch.)

And, though expect a bit of an increase in the quality of the chances against to increase a bit with Tuch no longer being in the fold, and with having Byram-lite as the 4 rather than Byram; am not expecting it to be good for 20+ goals worse unless the GT drops out of the top 10.  Keeping the GTing in the top 10 drops this team about 10 points; not close to 20 points.  MHO; YMM (and lapparently does) V.

Still hoping Kekalainen finds a way to land Hellebucyk.  IMHO that puts the baseline for this team ~106-107 points (which even with the 2 extra games is solidly in a playoff spot and doesn't require much to go right to be back in the mix for the Conference RS Title).  As is, expect this team to be ~101 with the extra 2 games, which puts it right on the bubble for controlling its own destiny and SHOULD be good enough for the playoffs even if it does regress slightly from that unless the East is crazily loaded again (which it looks like on paper; but they don't play 'em on paper and the last time the East had 8 teams that all were well above a playoff pace, several came back down to earth the next year, so who knows just how tough the conference will actually be).

[That Aud Smell]

1 hour ago, dudacek said:

It's weird and kinda sad that after a 109-point season where still in the same place of wondering how good the kids really are.

i want to believe. and i guess i probably do?

otoh, recent nhl history is littered with teams that break out with ~110 point seasons and then, the following season, fall back to being a bubble team (or worse).

are the sabres going to have two of the league's best goalies next year?

[dudacek]

So if you switch your focus from the lines and the depth chart to the team's overall makeup, this is what I see.

3 high-end players in their prime:

Thompson is an elite goal scorer, Samuelsson is a high-end shutdown D and Dahlin is a franchise player and one of the best defencemen in the world

10 veterans proven in their roles:

Norris and McLeod are as good a pair of middle-six centres as there is in the NHL, Zucker a good middle-six scoring winger, Krebs an excellent swingman, Timmins, Carrick, Danforth and Malenstyn strong depth players, and Luukkonen and Lyon capable tandem goalies.

4 already good young players who may have more to give

Quinn, Benson and Doan are excellent middle-six forwards who are at the point of their careers where players often take steps. Power looked like a high-end 2-way defenceman to finish the year and just needs to carry that forward.

5 inexperienced players who are proven contributors, it's still unclear how much

Östlund is as complete a 22-year-old as you'll find, Kulich can score in the NHL and has Lindy's trust — each seems ready for middle-six roles. Zellweger and Crevier are proven 3rd-pairing pairing NHLers with very enticing skillsets. Ellis is an adventure, but a battler who stole some games last year.

4 spare parts who have shown they can fill in if needed

Kozak, Sheary, Metsa, Gilbert

1 high-end prospect who looks like he's ready to be in the NHL

Helenius

 

There's an elite level of depth, and a lot of upside, and more proven talent than some give it credit for.

Sure wish there was at least one more high-end guy.

Edited August 1 by dudacek

[Taro T]

3 minutes ago, dudacek said:

So if you switch your focus from the lines and the depth chart to the team's overall makeup, this is what I see.

3 high-end players in their prime:

Thompson is an elite goal scorer, Samuelsson is a high-end shutdown D and Dahlin is a franchise player and one of the best defencemen in the world

10 veterans proven in their roles:

Norris and McLeod are as good a pair of middle-six centres as there is in the NHL, Zucker a good middle-six scoring winger, Krebs an excellent swingman, Timmins, Carrick, Danforth and Malenstyn strong depth players, and Luukkonen and Lyon capable tandem goalies.

4 already good young players who may have more to give

Quinn, Benson and Doan are excellent middle-six forwards who are at the point of their careers where players often take steps. Power looked like a high-end 2-way defenceman to finish the year and just needs to carry that forward.

5 inexperienced players who are proven contributors, it's still unclear how much

Östlund is as complete a 22-year-old as you'll find, Kulich can score in the NHL and has Lindy's trust — each seems ready for middle-six roles. Zellweger and Crevier are proven 3rd-pairing pairing NHLers with very enticing skillsets. Ellis is an adventure, but a battler who stole some games last year.

4 spare parts who have shown they can fill in if needed

Kozak, Sheary, Metsa, Gilbert

1 high-end prospect who looks like he's ready to be in the NHL

Helenius

 

There's an elite level of depth, and a lot of upside, and more proven talent than some give it credit for.

Sure wish there was at least one more high-end guy.

A reasonable take on the team and where it's at.  But would disagree that Zucker and UPL are "proven in their roles."  Zucker has been showing signs of tailing off (hopefully that was mainly because of the shoulder separation and he'll bounce back, but he was NOT good down the stretch and in the playoffs).  And UPL, well, with as inconsistent as he's been, have a hard time saying he's proven.  He's proven he can get the job done on any given night, but has also shown he can lose his mind any given night as well.

And not convinced that Sheary could still fill in adequately at this stage of his career.

But those really are quibbles at the fringes.

[SabresFan69420]

On 7/31/2026 at 10:58 AM, Taro T said:

Really do appreciate the effort you've put into this.  It brings some very useful data points to the discussion.

That said, while the overall numbers from the publicly available sites show everything minus the goaltending was essentially the same pre- and post-Dec 9; the eye test doesn't support that.  And expect that if those scoring chances and HDSC's got parsed within those categories we'd see that the HDSC's against were significantly reduced in quality after that Edmonton game that got everything rolling.  (They now had a stick on them when the cross-ice pass got through; or they had a little less space on that partial breakaway shot; or the shot from the slot was now at the very top of it rather than from that sweet spot that's far enough out that you can shoot at just about everything and you're too close for the goalie to react; etc.)  It also seemed that the PK got worse as the season went on and it seemed some of the overall metrics might've reflected that.  (Don't know that for certain, am actually asking if that's the case.  Again, from the eye test, that seemed to be becoming a trouble spot down the stretch.)

And, though expect a bit of an increase in the quality of the chances against to increase a bit with Tuch no longer being in the fold, and with having Byram-lite as the 4 rather than Byram; am not expecting it to be good for 20+ goals worse unless the GT drops out of the top 10.  Keeping the GTing in the top 10 drops this team about 10 points; not close to 20 points.  MHO; YMM (and lapparently does) V.

Still hoping Kekalainen finds a way to land Hellebucyk.  IMHO that puts the baseline for this team ~106-107 points (which even with the 2 extra games is solidly in a playoff spot and doesn't require much to go right to be back in the mix for the Conference RS Title).  As is, expect this team to be ~101 with the extra 2 games, which puts it right on the bubble for controlling its own destiny and SHOULD be good enough for the playoffs even if it does regress slightly from that unless the East is crazily loaded again (which it looks like on paper; but they don't play 'em on paper and the last time the East had 8 teams that all were well above a playoff pace, several came back down to earth the next year, so who knows just how tough the conference will actually be).

The bolded is what I’m struggling with. Can’t deny the stats minus goaltending were about the same but man they looked like such a different team in pretty much all ways. 
 

They went from “oh they are down 1, it’s over” to feeling optimistic about a win down 2 with 5 minutes left. (We were all standing game 1 as soon as Tage scored that first one). 
 

The change in the eye test even got my wife sitting and watching most every game after mid December because “it’s finally fun to watch them” and “wow hockey is exciting”

[That Aud Smell]

4 hours ago, SabresFan69420 said:

The bolded is what I’m struggling with. Can’t deny the stats minus goaltending were about the same but man they looked like such a different team in pretty much all ways. 
 

They went from “oh they are down 1, it’s over” to feeling optimistic about a win down 2 with 5 minutes left. (We were all standing game 1 as soon as Tage scored that first one). 
 

The change in the eye test even got my wife sitting and watching most every game after mid December because “it’s finally fun to watch them” and “wow hockey is exciting”

excellent post.

please post more.

and pick a fun name — unless this screen name is the one you really wanted.

oh wait. maybe it is. 🤣

[#freejame]

1 minute ago, That Aud Smell said:

excellent post.

please post more.

and pick a fun name — unless this screen name is the one you really wanted.

oh wait. maybe it is. 🤣

It’s the best username out there; no need to change it!

[That Aud Smell]

17 minutes ago, #freejame said:

It’s the best username out there; no need to change it!

it looked random to me.

then i saw it.

[dudacek]

5 hours ago, Taro T said:

A reasonable take on the team and where it's at.  But would disagree that Zucker and UPL are "proven in their roles."  Zucker has been showing signs of tailing off (hopefully that was mainly because of the shoulder separation and he'll bounce back, but he was NOT good down the stretch and in the playoffs).  And UPL, well, with as inconsistent as he's been, have a hard time saying he's proven.  He's proven he can get the job done on any given night, but has also shown he can lose his mind any given night as well.

And not convinced that Sheary could still fill in adequately at this stage of his career.

But those really are quibbles at the fringes.

I don't think we're much apart in our views on UPL as a player, but in terms of my rationale for including him in the category I did:

Over the past 3 seasons combined, UPL ranks (minimum 100 games):

• 16 in games played
• 14th in in wins
• 20th in SV%
• 17th in GAA
• 11th in % starts over .900

By pretty much every metric out there, he's an established NHL tandem goalie.

Edited August 1 by dudacek

[#freejame]

19 minutes ago, That Aud Smell said:

it looked random to me.

then i saw it.

I had to do a double take the first time I saw it, I don’t blame you 

[Taro T]

7 hours ago, dudacek said:

I don't think we're much apart in our views on UPL as a player, but in terms of my rationale for including him in the category I did:

Over the past 3 seasons combined, UPL ranks (minimum 100 games):

• 16 in games played
• 14th in in wins
• 20th in SV%
• 17th in GAA
• 11th in % starts over .900

By pretty much every metric out there, he's an established NHL tandem goalie.

And having a #1 that's essentially Biron (minus being chatty Kathy) ISN'T being established as the team's #1.  Because, he IS their #1.  Unless he blatantly spits the bit, he's getting ~50 games, Lyon gets ~20 and Ellis gets the 15 necessary to keep his staying a Sabre up to them.

[FrenchConnection44]

On 7/23/2026 at 9:08 AM, dudacek said:

I’ll say it again:

Tuch -> Kulich/Helenius

Dunne -> Carrick

Greenway -> Danforth

Byram -> Zellweger

Bryson/Kesselring -> Crevier

If you aren’t concerned about regression you’ve got more faith in internal growth than most.

If you think they’re doomed, you probably overestimating how much the Sabres relied on their best players last year and underestimating how much talent remains.

The current roster can still outskate, outwork and out score most opponents over an 84-game season.

My concern remains lack of faith in the ability of the goalies to repeat what they did last year.

I think it's perfectly reasonable to be concerned about a regression after losing Tuch and Byram. I am. 

However, I think several of these comparisons (those highlighted) are not legitimate concerns. 

First, I don't think there is any certainty Danforth makes the top 12. I have 13 Fs ahead of him (In no particular order): 

Benson, Tage, Norris, Doan, McLeod, Zucker, Quinn, Östlund, Malenstyn, Carrick, Helenius, Kulich, Krebs. The biggest question-mark is Kulich. 

Second, Greenway, Dunne, Bryson/Kesselring contributed virtually nothing toward our getting to the playoffs. If we are analyzing this year's team relative to last year's team, hands down the replacements for Greenway, Dunne, Bryson/Kesselring will be an improvement (barring injury; but that's always the case - even if we had Makar replacing Bryson). But just look at the contributions of those: Greenway: 1 G, 5 A and -10 (in 40 games). Bryson gave us so little I'm excluding him altogether. Metsa was better. Kesselring played only 34 games, 0 goals, 2 assists. Even when healthy at the end, he was a scratch. Dunne only 34 games 1/3, 4 pts total, -7. 

Barring injury, Carrick, Crevier, and any of Kulick, Krebs, Östlund, or even Danforth, will bring more to the team than Greenway, Dunne, and Kesselring contributed to last year's team (as far as regular season). Crevier and Carrick will bring more toughness than any of those other three. Greenway was solid on penalty kill at times and we will miss Tuch there as well. I think we can replace Greenway pretty easily but replacing  Tuch and Byram with similar level of play is asking too much, imo. 

Nevertheless, this team still has a very good chance to get into the playoffs. And they should only get better over the next 2-3 seasons. 

[Nacho Libre]

On 7/31/2026 at 9:41 AM, dudacek said:

It's weird and kinda sad that after a 109-point season we're still in the same place of wondering how good the kids really are.

I’d argue it’s mostly circumstantial rather that weird. I think it’s mostly founded by the departure of 2 key veterans within the context of no veterans being brought in 

early returns says it strategically informs the process of our current GM as much as the last 

17 hours ago, That Aud Smell said:

excellent post.

please post more.

and pick a fun name — unless this screen name is the one you really wanted.

oh wait. maybe it is. 🤣

It’s 69420. I put myself in the waiting list for his username if he ever abandons it 

Edited August 2 by Nacho Libre

[Pimlach]

4 hours ago, Nacho Libre said:

 

It’s 69420. I put myself in the waiting list for his username if he ever abandons it 

Thorny, Thorner, Nacho Libre … what about MBSabreFan? 

Edited August 2 by Pimlach

[#freejame]

4 minutes ago, Pimlach said:

Thorny, Thorner, Nacho Libre … what about MNSabreFan? 

Minnesota…now there’s a place that knows hockey 

[Pimlach]

22 minutes ago, #freejame said:

Minnesota…now there’s a place that knows hockey 

Ok, now I have to fix it. 

[Scottysabres]

On 7/23/2026 at 9:49 AM, Hoss said:

You genuinely don't see the potential for a serious regression from this team "at all?" C'mon now... A team that just went on one of the most unimaginable runs in recent NHL history lost their second-leading scorer and a second-pairing defenseman who was key to their offensive identity.

Anyone claiming they don't see a path toward even a major regression, especially with the division they're in, is just lying to themselves.

I don’t see the regression, and I’m fully cognizant I’m not lying to myself.

out: Tuch, Byram

career progress: Benson, Doan, Östlund, Quinn, Power, Helenius, Kulich, Ellis, UPL, Zellwegger, Metsa, Crevier

beneficiaries of career progress listing: Zucker, McLeod, Timmins, Norris, Krebs, Malenstyn, Danforth, Carrick, Samuelsson, Thompson, Dahlin

I see no evidence that the above will not take place based on the consistency of well over half a season that it did, in point of fact, take place. Could I be wrong? Of course, but again, show me indicators, factual indicators it will go 180 from the above mentioned, because frankly, the absence of Tuch and Byram isn’t enough. Imho

[Hoss]

23 minutes ago, Scottysabres said:

I don’t see the regression, and I’m fully cognizant I’m not lying to myself.

out: Tuch, Byram

career progress: Benson, Doan, Östlund, Quinn, Power, Helenius, Kulich, Ellis, UPL, Zellwegger, Metsa, Crevier

beneficiaries of career progress listing: Zucker, McLeod, Timmins, Norris, Krebs, Malenstyn, Danforth, Carrick, Samuelsson, Thompson, Dahlin

I see no evidence that the above will not take place based on the consistency of well over half a season that it did, in point of fact, take place. Could I be wrong? Of course, but again, show me indicators, factual indicators it will go 180 from the above mentioned, because frankly, the absence of Tuch and Byram isn’t enough. Imho

Well, the good news is that you're just agreeing with what I just said. Because my entire point was to address those who don't even see potential for regression, not those who don't believe there will be regression.

[Scottysabres]

4 minutes ago, Hoss said:

Well, the good news is that you're just agreeing with what I just said. Because my entire point was to address those who don't even see potential for regression, not those who don't believe there will be regression.

Well, I’m hopeful? At least optimistic this group can carry it forward. We’ll know come mid November/early December I guess. I’ll either be fist pumping every game night with an overwhelming feeling of bliss and joy, or…..I’ll be repenting heavily to my neighbors the day after each game for the fowl words that were heard echoing from my home each game night.

[GASabresIUFAN]

Here are some fantasy point projections for the Sabres.

https://www.nhl.com/news/topic/32-in-32/buffalo-sabres-fantasy-projections-for-2026-27-season-32-in-32

and other stats

https://www.nhl.com/news/topic/32-in-32/buffalo-sabres-nhl-edge-stats-for-2026-27-season-32-in-32

Edited August 6 by GASabresIUFAN

[dudacek]

This is how I see the team depth chart heading into training camp:

Star forward

• Tage Thompson

Key forwards

• Josh Norris
• Ryan McLeod
• Zach Benson
• Josh Doan
• Jack Quinn

Supporting cast

• Jason Zucker
• Peyton Krebs
• Noah Östlund
• Jiri Kulich
• Beck Malenstyn
• Sam Carrick
• Justin Danforth
• Konsta Helenius

Spare parts

• Tyson Kozak
• Conor Sheary

Star defenceman

• Rasmus Dahlin

Key defencemen

• Mattias Samuelsson
• Owen Power

Supporting cast

• Olen Zellweger
• Louis Crevier
• Conor Timmins

Spare Parts

• Zach Metsa
• Dennis Gilbert
• Ryan Johnson

Starting goalie

• Ukko Pekka Luukkonen
• Alex Lyon

Supporting cast

• Colten Ellis

Spare parts

• Matt Villalta

Players are ranked by how likely they are to be in the opening night roster, assuming health. Players within each tier are roughly equal and could easily rise and fall based on their play

[Taro T]

20 minutes ago, dudacek said:

This is how I see the team depth chart heading into training camp:

Star forward

• Tage Thompson

Key forwards

• Josh Norris
• Ryan McLeod
• Zach Benson
• Josh Doan
• Jack Quinn

Supporting cast

• Jason Zucker
• Peyton Krebs
• Noah Östlund
• Jiri Kulich
• Beck Malenstyn
• Sam Carrick
• Justin Danforth
• Konsta Helenius

Spare parts

• Tyson Kozak
• Conor Sheary

Star defenceman

• Rasmus Dahlin

Key defencemen

• Mattias Samuelsson
• Owen Power

Supporting cast

• Olen Zellweger
• Louis Crevier
• Conor Timmins

Spare Parts

• Zach Metsa
• Dennis Gilbert
• Ryan Johnson

Starting goalie

• Ukko Pekka Luukkonen
• Alex Lyon

Supporting cast

• Colten Ellis

Spare parts

• Matt Villalta

Players are ranked by how likely they are to be in the opening night roster, assuming health. Players within each tier are roughly equal and could easily rise and fall based on their play

Agree with most of this, and it's pretty much semantics, but expect to see Carrick on the ice for the final 2 minutes of every single game they play when they're protecting a lead.  So, IMHO, he fits in as "key."

[...]

1 hour ago, Taro T said:

Agree with most of this, and it's pretty much semantics, but expect to see Carrick on the ice for the final 2 minutes of every single game they play when they're protecting a lead.  So, IMHO, he fits in as "key."

Or whenever winning a faceoff matters.

[#freejame]

I think there’s a world where Owen Power finds himself somewhere between Key Defensemen and Star Defensemen. He took some big strides in the back half of the year. If he improves on that throughout an entire season he’s going to be very good on a great contract. I’ve knocked Power a lot throughout his tenure here but I’ve been on the bandwagon banging the drum since the start of 2026. Hes never going to be what some people want him to be but he’s going to be considered very good to great by a lot of people.