Let's Assume: Lineups for Opening Night

[TageMVP]

If it's the same roster as right now, the Sabres will not make the playoffs 

Yeah, I said it 

[DHawerchuk10]

1 hour ago, thewookie1 said:

Always hard to say, Hellebuyck would have the name recognition but still a questionable future akin to the future of UPL. Different reasons however. I’d need to know how Hellebuyck fairs against cross ice plays and breakaways vs UPL. Seeing as our team tends to give up both due to our style. As such my goalie needs to thrive against our weaknesses because I have zero desire to change the team’s system to fit Hellebuyck or any goalie

That is an interesting point.  My viewings of Hellebuyck are limited, but I get the sense from those viewings he is more adept on those high danger chances than UPL.  Something to look into for sure.

[DHawerchuk10]

1 hour ago, LGR4GM said:

For me, no. The Sabres chance suppression and chance creation numbers MUST improve. We can't survive on top 5 sh% with 20th overall chance creation. We can't survive with top 5 sv% with 20th overall chance suppression. The chances, xgf/xga, most closely align with a linear regression line. Those numbers tend to remain more stable over time and they better predict winning. sh% can vary wildly by year and so can sv%. If the Sabres were even top 15 at suppression or generation, let alone both, I would feel better. I hope that the continued growth of Doan/Benson helps that. I can say that Zach Benson is going to start getting Selke consideration this year even though he won't be a finalist.

I don't think Hellebuyck alone fixes the underlying issue, I think his skill just helps mask it. He would help though, but at what cost?

This is excellent analysis and this adds more facts to the thread regarding risk for regression.  I fall kind of in the middle of this whole debate I suppose.  I don't think we fall off a cliff, and probably drink more of the hopium, but the statistics you mention are certainly reason for concern. 

I tend to think similar that Hellebuyck doesn't fix the underlying issue, and merely masks it, but again, having what is assumed better goaltending (perhaps more stable and predictable is a better term) not only closes gaps on our roster, but further assists our youth in developing by allowing them to take more risks.

[Nacho Libre]

Just now, DHawerchuk10 said:

This is excellent analysis and this adds more facts to the thread regarding risk for regression.  I fall kind of in the middle of this whole debate I suppose.  I don't think we fall off a cliff, and probably drink more of the hopium, but the statistics you mention are certainly reason for concern. 

I tend to think similar that Hellebuyck doesn't fix the underlying issue, and merely masks it, but again, having what is assumed better goaltending (perhaps more stable and predictable is a better term) not only closes gaps on our roster, but further assists our youth in developing by allowing them to take more risks.

Hellebuyck is about ceiling, too. Imagine the kids DO hit, and back in a situation he wants to be in, Hellebuyck returns to form. We shouldn’t lose sight of the fact we were cup contenders last year, and that add might help us remain so 

It might even help us advance beyond where we were, which, is the goal 

[dudacek]

3 hours ago, Nacho Libre said:

- don’t really like this. I think it’s still too dismissive of Tuch’s loss. I could be wrong. I think it’s being minimized

Interesting choice of words because I think that’s exactly what’s going on, just not in the way you intended here.

It’s exactly Lindy’s job to minimize the impact of Tuch’s loss.

My post is simply illustrating a way he might be able to do that.

It’s not sleight of hand to be asking Benson to be more than the 15-minute a night top nine winger and special teams afterthought he was last year. It’s a calculated risk based on the growth he has shown in his game.

Same goes for promoting Östlund into Benson’s role and Helenius into Östlund’s.

I get the discomfort given the echoes of poor choices made by Kevyn Adams. And there is every chance it will blow up in their faces.

But this type of turnover fed by internal pipeline isn’t uncommon with “good” franchises and context matters: this is a cap team with proven talent.

Or put it this way: how Is what Jarmo is doing with Tuch Benson and Östlund significantly different than what Carolina did with Necas, Jarvis and Stankoven?

[Nacho Libre]

16 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Interesting choice of words because I think that’s exactly what’s going on, just not in the way you intended here.

It’s exactly Lindy’s job to minimize the impact of Tuch’s loss.

My post is simply illustrating a way he might be able to do that.

It’s not sleight of hand to be asking Benson to be more than the 15-minute a night top nine winger and special teams afterthought he was last year. It’s a calculated risk based on the growth he has shown in his game.

Same goes for promoting Östlund into Benson’s role and Helenius into Östlund’s.

I get the discomfort given the echoes of poor choices made by Kevyn Adams. And there is every chance it will blow up in their faces.

But this type of turnover fed by internal pipeline isn’t uncommon with “good” franchises and context matters: this is a cap team with proven talent.

Or put it this way: how Is what Jarmo is doing with Tuch Benson and Östlund significantly different than what Carolina did with Necas, Jarvis and Stankoven?

I dunno, didn’t you really want Kane? You posted a few times about how good of an idea that was. That wasn’t a need, just for fun? 

I feel like no matter what we really do any sort of argument is defeatist because we are GOING to end up back at “well ya Kulich.” Like, honestly, ok. Fair. Don’t mean that sarcastically. It honestly could really work - I’m sort of just admittedly defeated by everything seemingly ending up back at “well it can actually work with what we have”. It does seem like the starting point is always “it will work” and then picking how based on whatever is available. Purely a personal reading. It makes putting effort into arguing for what we COULD add feel rather pointless if it’s so easily dismissed in the end. It’s more less a “let’s just see what happens Oct 1” dynamic imo then

Edited July 23 by Nacho Libre

[dudacek]

Just now, Nacho Libre said:

I dunno, didn’t you really want Kane? You posted a few times about how good of an idea that was. That wasn’t a need, just for fun? 

Wanting to find ways to improve the team is a different conversation than figuring out how much damage the loss of Tuch will cause.

 

[Nacho Libre]

As for Carolina I could be wrong but I don’t think they did that while losing such a key offensive piece 

Nm someone considered to be the heart of the team, in addition to a defender you yourself argued was one of our very best players. He was apparently a VITAL piece and no I just hear nothing about it 

Imo we are already counting on Benson’s emergence to go from second round to third. It’s bad form to “use up” the growth you’ve been waiting on for so long with needing to replace your good players. If that is an exciting prop to some, whatever floats the boat I guess. Other teams have growing players too 

Edited July 23 by Nacho Libre

[Nacho Libre]

3 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Wanting to find ways to improve the team is a different conversation than figuring out how much damage the loss of Tuch will cause.

 

One day we’ll be able to bank on the improvement of our youth for exactly that. Rather than as a failsafe 

[dudacek]

Just now, Nacho Libre said:

As for Carolina I could be wrong but I don’t think they did that while losing such a key offensive piece 

They effectively traded 83-point Necas for 38-point Stankoven.

[Nacho Libre]

4 minutes ago, dudacek said:

They effectively traded 83-point Necas for 38-point Stankoven.

55 and 53 the years before they dealt him and not in their top 2 F

edit I see the newest was in only his Carolina games. But still, it wasn’t in their top two and they brought in the near Smythe winner in Taylor hall in the transaction. We didn’t add anything for Tuch 

Tuch for nothing isn’t at all comparable to Necas for hall and stankoven 

Edited July 23 by Nacho Libre

[thewookie1]

11 minutes ago, Nacho Libre said:

55 and 53 the years before they dealt him and not in their top 2 F

edit I see the newest was in only his Carolina games. But still, it wasn’t in their top two and they brought in the near Smythe winner in Taylor hall in the transaction. We didn’t add anything for Tuch 

Tuch for nothing isn’t at all comparable to Necas for hall and stankoven 

Well we could of offered Tuch 8x10.5 but we didn’t to conserve some cap space in the immediate and long term issues.

Byram would of a major folly to sign him for 5x12.5/4x14 as he’d of been making absurd money to be our 3/4 and would of exploded all of our other RFA asks.

In hindsight I likely would’ve gone to Tuch’s ask if we could get Benson done prior to it. I ranked Benson’s contract as a greater need than Tuch and don’t feel any different now. Losing Benson would have been far more damaging to the team both in the short and long term. 

However I have zero qualms about how Jarmo handled the Byram situation. 

[Nacho Libre]

10 minutes ago, thewookie1 said:

Well we could of offered Tuch 8x10.5 but we didn’t to conserve some cap space in the immediate and long term issues.

Byram would of a major folly to sign him for 5x12.5/4x14 as he’d of been making absurd money to be our 3/4 and would of exploded all of our other RFA asks.

In hindsight I likely would’ve gone to Tuch’s ask if we could get Benson done prior to it. I ranked Benson’s contract as a greater need than Tuch and don’t feel any different now. Losing Benson would have been far more damaging to the team both in the short and long term. 

However I have zero qualms about how Jarmo handled the Byram situation. 

Two things can be true at once, it’s funny how often this is disregarded. I don’t have any qualms particularly about how Jarmo handled those transactions, but that view isn’t incompatible with a thought said result was disappointing, nor is it incompatible with the thought I was hoping the net result of the roster looked different ie was addressed in other ways. Nor does it mean I need to be hopeful losing Tuch won’t be that bad because Carolina dealt Necas for 2 good players 

Edited July 23 by Nacho Libre

[dudacek]

6 minutes ago, Nacho Libre said:

55 and 53 the years before they dealt him and not in their top 2 F

edit I see the newest was in only his Carolina games. But still, it wasn’t in their top two and they brought in the near Smythe winner in Taylor hall in the transaction. We didn’t add anything for Tuch 

Tuch for nothing isn’t at all comparable to Necas for hall and stankoven 

Thats not the point I was making at all.

Both teams lost proven first line wingers. Neither added proven first line wingers to replace them. Each asked or is asking for more from “lesser” players to make up the difference.

 

[Nacho Libre]

1 minute ago, dudacek said:

Thats not the point I was making at all.

Both teams lost proven first line wingers. Neither added proven first line wingers to replace them. Each asked or is asking for more from “lesser” players to make up the difference.

 

But they made key outside additions to aid in the process. That context is hugely important and changes the environment you are hoping for the growth in 

[dudacek]

1 hour ago, dudacek said:

Or put it this way: how Is what Jarmo is doing with Tuch Benson and Östlund significantly different than what Carolina did with Necas, Jarvis and Stankoven

Bringing it back to this, my original point, yes the Canes added Hall as well and that worked out well. None of this happens in a vacuum. The Sabres added Kulich. We’ll see how that goes. 

[dudacek]

Just now, Nacho Libre said:

But they made key outside additions to aid in the process. That context is hugely important and changes the environment you are hoping for the growth in 

Not sure why the additions coming from the outside is crucial. Being able to promote from your own pipeline used to be considered a good thing.

Kevyn Adams really damaged you. 😁

[Nacho Libre]

As far as I know, no one is saying we lost a first line right winger in Tuch so need to bring in a first line right winger. I think the idea being purported is clearly that we’ve seen a lot more talent out this offseason than in. I can live with a “lesser” player being tasked with replacing Tuch, if we are hoping to gain elsewhere by that transaction being facilitated. Carolina used that loss to supplement the team in other areas. Being ok with that contribution just evaporating off the team isn’t really ok with me 

6 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Bringing it back to this, my original point, yes the Canes added Hall as well and that worked out well. None of this happens in a vacuum. The Sabres added Kulich. We’ll see how that goes. 

No, they added Kulich by way of draft capital spent and Sam Reinhart. None of the Tuch asset value was converted into anything. We had Kulich regardless. 

who’s to say we aren’t still counting on Kulich to make up the lost value of Reinhart? Anyone can assign value anywhere arbitrarily, as you are doing. The point I am making is that Tuch’s contributions were subtracted with nothing gained in return 

Edited July 23 by Nacho Libre

[Nacho Libre]

15 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Not sure why the additions coming from the outside is crucial. Being able to promote from your own pipeline used to be considered a good thing.

Kevyn Adams really damaged you. 😁

I’m mean I’m glad you can put a smiley face on my nearly ruined fandom and fair play for your fandom being stainless steel silver, but yes, it did, I love the constant reminder, but my point that you value assets entirely differently depending on the 5 second difference between trade destinations

Edited July 23 by Nacho Libre

[Fansince70]

2 hours ago, DHawerchuk10 said:

That is an interesting point.  My viewings of Hellebuyck are limited, but I get the sense from those viewings he is more adept on those high danger chances than UPL.  Something to look into for sure.

I'm also concerned about the medium to low danger chances, which UPL lets in wayyy too often.  Those are the goals that deflate a team.   Helle doesn't let those in.  

Edited July 23 by Fansince70

[dudacek]

Just now, Nacho Libre said:

 

No, they added Kulich by way of draft capital spent. None of the Tuch asset value was converted into anything 

That’s not the conversation I’m having here: I’m talking about the starting lineup of the Sabres this coming season and how it compares to the lineup of last season.

In that context, Tuch is a major loss. Greenway a loss. Dunne a minor loss.

In that context, more will be asked of Doan, Benson and Quinn, among others.

In that context Kulich, Helenius, Danforth and Carrick are effectively additions because they were bit players in the 109-point team.

Will that make up for what was lost? I’d lean towards “no” but it’s possible. All I was trying to do is point out that I don’t see it as simple as “we lost Tuch and didn’t replace him”

[dudacek]

21 minutes ago, Nacho Libre said:

I’m mean I’m glad you can put a smiley face on my nearly ruined fandom and fair play for your fandom being stainless steel silver, but yes, it did, I love the constant reminder, but my point that you value assets entirely differently depending on the 5 second difference between trade destinations

Apologies if the Adams reference landed poorly. No mocking intended. The emoji was supposed to show that was an observation, not a jab.

[ubkev]

3 hours ago, TageMVP said:

If it's the same roster as right now, the Sabres will not make the playoffs 

Yeah, I said it 

I'll take action on this. 

Sabres to make the playoffs at: -110

Sabres to miss the playoffs at: +130

 

(For entertainment purposes only. Private bookmaking operations are illegal.)

[Weave]

1 hour ago, dudacek said:

The Sabres added Kulich. We’ll see how that goes. 

This gives me PTSD.  I almost literally recoil at this line of logic.  It brings me right back to Darcy Regier glowing about Tim Connolly coming back from injury (and was it Drew Stafford being promoted?) being equivalent to bringing in outside help.  I thought it was dishonest logic then.  I think it is dishonest logic now.

[GASabresIUFAN]

Benson Tage Kulich/Krebs/Quinn

Doan Norris Östlund

Zucker McLeod Quinn/Krebs

Kulich/Krebs Carrick Malenstyn (Kozak)

Helenius sent down and Danforth waived

Dahlin Mule

Power Timmins

Zellweger Crevier (Metsa)

UPL Lyon Ellis

My guess is the only real camp battles are between Timmins and Crevier and how Lindy allocates Quinn Krebs and Kulich.