Let's Assume: Lineups for Opening Night

[transient]

5 minutes ago, dudacek said:

I think the nut of this discussion is trust.

If you trust that this was legitimately a 109-point team than it should be able to overcome the loss of two good players.

If you think the last four months of the regular season was a mirage, you should be concerned.

 

My concern is the last 4 months of the season had a lot to do with 2 goaltenders playing at a level that they haven't demonstrated an ability to maintain over the course of their careers to date.

[DarthEbriate]

Benson - Norris - Doan
Östlund - Kulich - Thompson
Zucker - McLeod - Quinn
Malenstyn - Carrick - Krebs
(Kozak)

Waived, clears to ROC: Danforth
Re-assigned to ROC: Helenius

Samuelsson - Dahlin
Power - Timmins
Zellweger - Crevier
(Metsa)

Luukkonen
Lyon
(Ellis)

[mjd1001]

24 minutes ago, transient said:

My concern is the last 4 months of the season had a lot to do with 2 goaltenders playing at a level that they haven't demonstrated an ability to maintain over the course of their careers to date.

Not to continue with the same point I am making over and over, but it was the goaltending that primarily pulled the team out of things in December.

From that loss against Calgary (the game before the streak started) though the end of the year, in 10 games all 3 guys played, had a 1.80 gaa and a 0.933 save percentage.

If you want to take it through the end of January, the goalies (well, the team) was 20w, 4 losses over that time. 2.40 gaa, 0.921 save percentage.  In that same time period, the guys in front of the goalies were outshot (giving up 74 more shots than they took), out 'chanced' (giving up 128 MORE scoring chances than they got over those 24 games), and the gave up 54 more high danger chances than they got over that time.

They skaters were not that much different, nor that much better, after early December.  It was the goaltending. 

If you want to break it down from before/after the streak:

Before the winning streak: 11w-18L.  28.9 shots for, 29.9 shots allowed. 28.7 scoring chances for, 27.7 scoring chances allowed. 3.26 expected goals for, 3.32 expected goals allowed. Goalies .894 save percentage.

After the streak: 39w 14L. 27.6 shots for 28.6 shots allowed. 28.6 scoring chances for, 28.8 scoring chances allowed.  3.32 expected goals for, 3.33 expected goals allowed.  Goalies .915 save percentage.

The 'skaters' were basically the same in terms of shots for vs allowed (they were outshot), scoring chances for vs allowed (however the NHL figures that stat) and expected goals for vs allowed (which takes into account shots and where they were taken from/the quality of the shot combined). The only appreciable change was the play of the goalies..and its not like the team in front of the tightened things up...in any measurable metric, along with what I saw myself, it was the goalies that saved this team (as I mentioned before, after a LOT of the wins, there were comments like "Lyon won them that game" or "UPL saved them in the 2nd period".)

If they get 'average' goaltending this year (not even bad, just average) then this is an 85-90 point team looking up at the playoffs...and that would not be because of losing Tuch or Bryam, it would be because the 'skaters' in front of the goalies were never good enough..even with those 2, to survive 'average' goaltending.

Edited July 23 by mjd1001

[dudacek]

22 minutes ago, mjd1001 said:

I'd go with Tage, Kulich, and Krebs.  If Krebs is bad on that line or if Kulich stats slow, eventually I'd move Benson there.

McLeod, Quinn and Zucker stay together.  Zucker might be a candidate to be moved out in place of one of the young guys (Benson, Östlund, Helenius, depending on who fits on the wing on this line the best)

I'm then going with Norris, Benson and Doan.

4th line mix and match whoever you want there.  I see Östlund/Helenius moving into the top 9 potentially in place of Zucker or Krebs, with Krebs possibly fitting in anywhere for injuries or just on the 4th line.

 

My post was largely what I think will be Lindy’s starting point.

I also think he really wants Benson Thompson Kulich to happen.

I like a lot of your ideas, particularly Doan Norris Benson, which I would be matching against top lines.

I don’t see people talking about Quinn on the first line or rarely even on the second. Which might be a blind spot given the way Jarmo has talked him up.

I also wonder about building a more traditional 3rd line with McLeod Krebs and a better defensive player than Zucker. I wonder if the 3 kids make Jason redundant.

I am very confident Benson takes on Tuch’s ice time and hard minutes and that he shines in that role. That doesn’t necessarily mean playing with Tage on the first line.

Noah Östlund is a really good two-way forward right now, with multiple roster fits. Hope he can stay healthy.

Having Benson Doan and Krebs on different lines ensures continuous hounding of pucks as the team identity. Having two on the same line gives us the ability to drive teams insane.

Jordan Greenway is being replaced by a more talented player, but he brought elements they haven’t replaced.

No idea what Kulich and Helenius will bring, or how they will fit, but I believe in their talent.

So many variations. Particularly when you consider how many forwards play multiple positions and roles.

Edited July 23 by dudacek

[Taro T]

1 hour ago, dudacek said:

I’ll say it again:

Tuch -> Kulich/Helenius

Dunne -> Carrick

Greenway -> Danforth

Byram -> Zellweger

Bryson/Kesselring -> Crevier

If you aren’t concerned about regression you’ve got more faith in internal growth than most.

If you think they’re doomed, you probably overestimating how much the Sabres relied on their best players last year and underestimating how much talent remains.

The current roster can still outskate, outwork and out score most opponents over an 84-game season.

My concern remains lack of faith in the ability of the goalies to repeat what they did last year.

To the bolded: exactly.

MY concern is in those 2 you mentioned but didn't put on there:

UPL -> UPL

Lyon -> Lyon.

Is that an upgrade, a downgrade, or more of the same?

The answer to THAT question will go a long way in letting us know if Kulich, Östlund, and Helenius are enough to overcome the loss of Tuch and the continued aging of Zucker.

[jsb]

Last year Kulich was slotted as 1st or 2nd line Center. If he comes back healthy, he's going to regain his spot. I'm not sure why so many of you are overlooking this guy in your top 6 or at the very least 9. He may by himself cover Tuch's point total. 

As for the netminders, I'm not sold on their quality play as much as the improvement in team defense led by the forwards who made the back 6's job alot easier.

Edited July 23 by jsb

[Taro T]

8 minutes ago, DarthEbriate said:

Benson - Norris - Doan
Östlund - Kulich - Thompson
Zucker - McLeod - Quinn
Malenstyn - Carrick - Krebs
(Kozak)

Waived, clears to ROC: Danforth
Re-assigned to ROC: Helenius

Samuelsson - Dahlin
Power - Timmins
Zellweger - Crevier
(Metsa)

Luukkonen
Lyon
(Ellis)

And that is this kid's best guess as to how they'll come out of the gate with no additional moves and no injuries.

[The Jokeman]

I like what I saw of Benson and Doan together in the playoffs. I'd put them on the second line. First line I'd give to Norris at C, Tage at LW, RW is in the air maybe Quinn so Helenius or Kullich can Center line 2. 

Edited July 23 by The Jokeman

[Hoss]

1 hour ago, tom webster said:

I’d appreciate if you didn’t completely dismiss my opinion, especially when you seemingly refuse to define (major). I realize you are still young and haven’t yet come to grips with the idea you may not be always right so I’ll cut you a little slack.

As for the division, Florida is the only team in the division that might have made themselves significantly better and their age and goaltending may be a mitigating factor.

No one said a “regression” isn’t possible. We have said we don’t see a “major” regression.

First off, let me apologize for being a bit rude. I'm sick as a dog and haven't eaten a meal in three days. I like and respect you, and it's not my intention to be a jerk.

I think I have already defined what "serious regression" means. I've said I think they're a fringe playoff team right now, and that's what a serious regression would be for this team. "Major" is the term I used in that specific post to note that anyone ruling out an even worse regression is still being unreasonable. There is absolutely a chance this team is right back in the cellar next season (technically, any team in the league could do the same, but I'd say our chances are higher than most of the high-end playoff teams from last season).

Toronto also made themselves significantly better (McKenna, Raddysh, Bob, and some depth pieces). If I were a betting man, I'd bet on Toronto being better than us next season if both teams are healthy and no additional moves of note are made.

 

Also, you did NOT say you don't see a "major" regression. You said you don't see a "serious" regression and used the phrase "I don't see this at all," which I believe is just rose-colored glasses. It's undeniable there's a chance that this team takes a large step back.

Edited July 23 by Hoss

[dudacek]

For the folks who believe in a hierarchy of lines:

Benson Thompson Quinn

Zucker Norris Doan

Krebs McLeod Östlund

Danforth Carrick Malenstyn

Edited July 23 by dudacek

[Taro T]

Kulich - Norris - Thompson

Benson - Helenius - Doan

Östlund - McLeod - Quinn

Krebs - Carrick - Malenstyn

Danforth

 

Dahlin - Samuelsson

Power - Zellweger

Crevier - Timmins

Metsa

 

UPL/Lyon/Ellis

 

Said above expect the lineup @DarthEbriate put together is what they'd go with barring changes.

Would really like to see them give the above a crack.

 

EDIT: Guess that assumes Zucker is broken somehow.  Until he proves the shoulder is healed, would have him an odd man out.

Edited July 23 by Taro T

[Fansince70]

2 hours ago, dudacek said:

I’ll say it again:

Tuch -> Kulich/Helenius

Dunne -> Carrick

Greenway -> Danforth

Byram -> Zellweger

Bryson/Kesselring -> Crevier

If you aren’t concerned about regression you’ve got more faith in internal growth than most.

If you think they’re doomed, you probably overestimating how much the Sabres relied on their best players last year and underestimating how much talent remains.

The current roster can still outskate, outwork and out score most opponents over an 84-game season.

My concern remains lack of faith in the ability of the goalies to repeat what they did last year.

Goalies are a roll of the dice, agreed.  My dark horse is Ellis- he's young and played a few brilliant games last year.  If he can find his stride,  one of the other two will become expendable, and the situation will actually improve. 

[Nacho Libre]

49 minutes ago, dudacek said:

@Nacho Libre Why is this a bad post?

Who said it was bad? 

[GoPuckYourself]

Line 1- LW Benson- C Thompson RW Doan

Line 2- LW Östlund-C Norris- RW Quinn

Line 3- LW Zucker- C McLeod- RW Helenius

Line 4- LW Kulich- C Carrick- RW Malenstyn

Def line 1- Dahlin RHD- Samuelson LHD

Def line 2- Power LHD- Zelleweger RHD

Def line 3- Timmons LHD- Crevier RHD 

[dudacek]

6 minutes ago, Nacho Libre said:

Who said it was bad? 

🤔You did, or at least you disliked it.

[Nacho Libre]

2 hours ago, dudacek said:

To answer the OP’s question:

I think Lindy had two excellent middle six lines last year in Östlund/Norris/Doan and Zucker/McLeod/Quinn that generally won their matchups.

He’ll probably return to those to start. - Nope, don’t like that 

Malenstyn and Carrick are prototypes in their 4th line roles. Considering Danforth or a better player will be riding shotgun, the Sabres are also in good shape there.

That leaves the 1st line as the question mark. Tage is excellent. - I don’t like this classification of Tage given his poor defensive season Tage and Krebs were excellent together last year. Is Benson really a serious drop-off from Tuch as the 3rd guy there? - I don’t like this framing and never really have. Feels less ingenious as it does disingenuous - Benson performs the role of Benson. It’s sleight of hand to bump down Tuch’s loss to nothingness and it’s hubris imo. Could be wrong. But i don’t like the framing 

Kulich and Helenius are very talented. Talented enough to seamlessly replace an injured Norris or Östlund or Zucker. Talented enough to force Lindy to push Krebs down the roster, or reconsider his lines altogether.

This remains a very deep and talented group of forwards. - don’t really like this. I think it’s still too dismissive of Tuch’s loss. I could be wrong. I think it’s being minimized. Think of how much you defended Byram too. You convinced me. It’s absent now so there’s a massive vaccum

11 minutes ago, dudacek said:

🤔You did, or at least you disliked it.

Ya it means dislike. X means disagree. AFAIK there isn’t an emoji for “bad”, certainly I haven’t been using them that way. It was certainly well written. 

see bolded bits per your question as for reasons for 👎

Edited July 23 by Nacho Libre

[PASabreFan]

2 hours ago, Hoss said:

You genuinely don't see the potential for a serious regression from this team "at all?" C'mon now... A team that just went on one of the most unimaginable runs in recent NHL history lost their second-leading scorer and a second-pairing defenseman who was key to their offensive identity.

Anyone claiming they don't see a path toward even a major regression, especially with the division they're in, is just lying to themselves.

I think the key will be how the remaining team responds to Jarmo's do-nothing/get nothing done performance. Will they be motivated to prove the doubters wrong again? Will they respond positively to a vote of confidence from the GM? Will they be discouraged that the bad old days are back, where "the answer is in the room." These are pros, CEOs of their own business, and seeing a talent suck could affect them. After all, the conventional wisdom is that they needed a GM change to get their heads out of their butts. They are human. Do they still trust in Jarmo, or are they no longer believing in The Concept of Jarmo?

[#freejame]

Vomiting is gross. Gross is slang for bad. Vomit is bad emoji  

YMMV

[DHawerchuk10]

2 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

The Sabres took 45 goals off the roster and 3 veteran players with 615, 475, and 328 games played. They essentially replaced them with "Mystery Box", Krebs, and Zellweger. That's Krebs 12 goals compared to greenways 1. Mystery Box has to cover 33 of Tuch's goals, and Zellweger has to pick up 6goals to cover the gap between him and Byram. Yes I am well aware this isn't how it all works but it is to simplify the stuff. All in all, if we assume that the 4th line covers for Greenway's 1 goal, and Zellweger and Crevier cover for Byram's 11 and Kesselring's 0, the biggest question than becomes how do the Sabres cover for the 33 they lost with Tuch? 

Mystery Box is Östlund/Kulich/Helenius rolled into one. They are the mystery box because we do not know how they will play, where they will play, and what role they will be asked to fill. If think about an aggregate 33 goals from 3 players + Zach Benson (he just gets better and better), may not seem too scary but they still have to accomplish the task. There is also the issue of minutes. 3 players getting Tuch's TOI probably could get 33 goals but Mystery Box isn't individually going to get that because Tuch is 1 guy, not 3. There isn't enough extra minutes. Doan and Benson also eat into Tuch minutes. I wrote about this elsewhere but his 19mins a night will get dispersed with Doan, Benson, and probably Quinn taking what? 2-3 extra shifts each? Let's say they eat up minutes each of Tuch time and that gives them 10 minutes, you only have another 9 minutes to distribute to the rest of the guys. 

I think regression is likely in shot% and in sv% and without Tuch to bolster the sh%, I worry about how much the lines will be able to compensate for that. 

I think this is a fair assessment.  But as others have stated, and to simplify things further, goaltending is the area most prime for regression.  Certainly most of the negativity around the lack of roster acquisitions would improve if we acquired Hellebuyck, right?

[ponokasabre]

Benson-Kulich-Thompson

Doan-Norris-Östlund

Zucker-Mcloed-Quinn

Krebs-Carrick-Malenstyn (Love this line and I think it will be very hard to play against and could chip in some goals)

Probably Danforth as the extra, but I could see them trying to slide Danforth down as he wont get claimed and keep Kozak up, as he likely will get claimed

Helenius sadly to Roch, but he is here the second a top nine guy goes down and he will never go back down when that happens

 

Sammy - Dahls

Power-Crevier (think this could be a really great pair)

Zellweger-Timmons (Cannot wait to see what Zellweger Brings, Timmons had his blips, but he was a beast in the playoffs)

Metsa 

Gilbert is sent down and wont get claimed....he will come and play if we need some toughness every now and again

 

UPL (I actually think he will basically be the third goalie this)

Lyon

Ellis (I expect him to actually play a ton as he needs to play something like 16 games or something like that to keep his RFA status, plus i think they think he could be the guy)

 

This is my roster if no trades are made. I want Helenius in the line up really bad

[Nacho Libre]

21 minutes ago, DHawerchuk10 said:

I think this is a fair assessment.  But as others have stated, and to simplify things further, goaltending is the area most prime for regression.  Certainly most of the negativity around the lack of roster acquisitions would improve if we acquired Hellebuyck, right?

Would alter my view of the offseason for sure 

[dudacek]

47 minutes ago, PASabreFan said:

I think the key will be how the remaining team responds to Jarmo's do-nothing/get nothing done performance. Will they be motivated to prove the doubters wrong again? Will they respond positively to a vote of confidence from the GM? Will they be discouraged that the bad old days are back, where "the answer is in the room." These are pros, CEOs of their own business, and seeing a talent suck could affect them. After all, the conventional wisdom is that they needed a GM change to get their heads out of their butts. They are human. Do they still trust in Jarmo, or are they no longer believing in The Concept of Jarmo?

I think this aspect of the off-season is underplayed.

I don’t think for a second the youngsters are bothered in the slightest. They believe in themselves and look at it as their opportunity.

Dahlin and Thompson on the other hand…

Tage grumbled about losing his driving partner Tuch on the Tkachuk brothers pod.

I would imagine that’s just scratching the surface.

[LGR4GM]

36 minutes ago, DHawerchuk10 said:

I think this is a fair assessment.  But as others have stated, and to simplify things further, goaltending is the area most prime for regression.  Certainly most of the negativity around the lack of roster acquisitions would improve if we acquired Hellebuyck, right?

For me, no. The Sabres chance suppression and chance creation numbers MUST improve. We can't survive on top 5 sh% with 20th overall chance creation. We can't survive with top 5 sv% with 20th overall chance suppression. The chances, xgf/xga, most closely align with a linear regression line. Those numbers tend to remain more stable over time and they better predict winning. sh% can vary wildly by year and so can sv%. If the Sabres were even top 15 at suppression or generation, let alone both, I would feel better. I hope that the continued growth of Doan/Benson helps that. I can say that Zach Benson is going to start getting Selke consideration this year even though he won't be a finalist.

I don't think Hellebuyck alone fixes the underlying issue, I think his skill just helps mask it. He would help though, but at what cost?

[thewookie1]

2 hours ago, Hoss said:

First off, let me apologize for being a bit rude. I'm sick as a dog and haven't eaten a meal in three days. I like and respect you, and it's not my intention to be a jerk.

I think I have already defined what "serious regression" means. I've said I think they're a fringe playoff team right now, and that's what a serious regression would be for this team. "Major" is the term I used in that specific post to note that anyone ruling out an even worse regression is still being unreasonable. There is absolutely a chance this team is right back in the cellar next season (technically, any team in the league could do the same, but I'd say our chances are higher than most of the high-end playoff teams from last season).

Toronto also made themselves significantly better (McKenna, Raddysh, Bob, and some depth pieces). If I were a betting man, I'd bet on Toronto being better than us next season if both teams are healthy and no additional moves of note are made.

 

Also, you did NOT say you don't see a "major" regression. You said you don't see a "serious" regression and used the phrase "I don't see this at all," which I believe is just rose-colored glasses. It's undeniable there's a chance that this team takes a large step back.

Lost me with the Toronto comment to be honest. They primarily acquired depth players a possible star rookie and a possible one hit wonder defenseman. Their defense still isn’t much better and I really can’t see Bob bouncing back to form. Raddysh to me is a very likely case of a one hit wonder who will fade back into being an ok mid 6 defenseman. He’s been that his entire career until last season, and Tampa has a far better group than Toronto.

[thewookie1]

1 hour ago, DHawerchuk10 said:

I think this is a fair assessment.  But as others have stated, and to simplify things further, goaltending is the area most prime for regression.  Certainly most of the negativity around the lack of roster acquisitions would improve if we acquired Hellebuyck, right?

Always hard to say, Hellebuyck would have the name recognition but still a questionable future akin to the future of UPL. Different reasons however. I’d need to know how Hellebuyck fairs against cross ice plays and breakaways vs UPL. Seeing as our team tends to give up both due to our style. As such my goalie needs to thrive against our weaknesses because I have zero desire to change the team’s system to fit Hellebuyck or any goalie

Edited July 23 by thewookie1
Rephrased my previous statement, I’d have less concerns but still plenty