Dom's fancy stats of The Atlantic: Sabres having least best offseason in NHL so far

[PASabreFan]

BTW not knowing is the pure genius of it. Smell thinks not seeing employees around the antics is evidence it was organic, but in my version of thing Save Us Guelli told them to stay the hell away.

[K-9]

Least best? 

I like to think of it as best worst. 

[That Aud Smell]

23 minutes ago, PASabreFan said:

You might be on something but have it backwards. Guelli wanted the Sabres to have their own folding table. Young male fans drink, buy sweaters and gamble. Everyone will interpret the events their own way, but someone who has appeared in multiple Sabres videos (paid, it's fair to assume) buying Bob the Dummy and showing up at the arena along with the blade gang is a hair too coincidental for me.

21 minutes ago, PASabreFan said:

BTW not knowing is the pure genius of it. Smell thinks not seeing employees around the antics is evidence it was organic, but in my version of thing Save Us Guelli told them to stay the hell away.

Hey, asshat. Please use the @ button when mentioning me. It will ensure that I respond (or deliberately ignore you (UNLIKELY)).

I am growing to appreciate your fan fiction vision of Guelli as some sort of master of puppets. A benevolent Svengali?

Also, I tossed in the absence of Sabre quarter zips fairly gratuitously. My feelings from having been there - having experienced it, having taken it all in - are mostly what I'm working off of. 

How 'bout you?

[...]

My elderly relatives often repeat the same stories and funnel their thoughts down to the same core points.

 

 

There's no mystery. It's a couple of fan collectives that developed a synergy. The Sabres marketing, not fully incompetent, seized on a golden opportunity placed before their feet. Had the latter not occurred, that entire department should have been fired. Not only did they save their jobs, they provided a platform for a bunch of locals to get their 15 minutes of fame and make the Sabres fanbase look precisely how the fanbase ought to look. A classic perfect storm.

 

Neither of the local media outlets below allow webpage streaming of the videos, so you'll have to click the links to YooToob.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NjzPJGLQWzI

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oZ2vtpdUR5I

[PASabreFan]

23 hours ago, That Aud Smell said:

Hey, asshat. Please use the @ button when mentioning me. It will ensure that I respond (or deliberately ignore you (UNLIKELY)).

I am growing to appreciate your fan fiction vision of Guelli as some sort of master of puppets. A benevolent Svengali?

Also, I tossed in the absence of Sabre quarter zips fairly gratuitously. My feelings from having been there - having experienced it, having taken it all in - are mostly what I'm working off of. 

How 'bout you?

Don't have to @ you. You read my every post in hopes you are mentioned.

Feelings as well. With a healthy dose of logic and common sense.

[PASabreFan]

23 hours ago, ... said:

My elderly relatives often repeat the same stories and funnel their thoughts down to the same core points.

 

 

There's no mystery. It's a couple of fan collectives that developed a synergy. The Sabres marketing, not fully incompetent, seized on a golden opportunity placed before their feet. Had the latter not occurred, that entire department should have been fired. Not only did they save their jobs, they provided a platform for a bunch of locals to get their 15 minutes of fame and make the Sabres fanbase look precisely how the fanbase ought to look. A classic perfect storm.

 

Neither of the local media outlets below allow webpage streaming of the videos, so you'll have to click the links to YooToob.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NjzPJGLQWzI

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oZ2vtpdUR5I

THAT is how the fanbase ought to look?

[...]

1 minute ago, PASabreFan said:

THAT is how the fanbase ought to look?

Hellebuyck seems to think Buffalo is a great destination.

[PASabreFan]

8 minutes ago, ... said:

Hellebuyck seems to think Buffalo is a great destination.

Doesn't address my point.

But if that is what brings him to Buffalo, I will admit Bob the Dummy was an act of God and not Guelli.

[...]

Just now, PASabreFan said:

Doesn't address my point.

But if that is what brings him to Buffalo, I will admit Bob the Dummy was an act of God and not Guelli.

 

Would you prefer a more refined fan base?

 

Perhaps more intellectual?

 

How about a detached or distanced fan base?

 

How about a fan base of all poets?

 

Or mimes?

 

[Taro T]

23 hours ago, ... said:

My elderly relatives often repeat the same stories and funnel their thoughts down to the same core points.

 

 

There's no mystery. It's a couple of fan collectives that developed a synergy. The Sabres marketing, not fully incompetent, seized on a golden opportunity placed before their feet. Had the latter not occurred, that entire department should have been fired. Not only did they save their jobs, they provided a platform for a bunch of locals to get their 15 minutes of fame and make the Sabres fanbase look precisely how the fanbase ought to look. A classic perfect storm.

 

Neither of the local media outlets below allow webpage streaming of the videos, so you'll have to click the links to YooToob.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NjzPJGLQWzI

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oZ2vtpdUR5I

It seems that way.  The Neely dummy was there in the street with people taking liberties of it before the rollerbladers got to it.  Mentioned it in the Bruins game 1 game day thread.  Didn't realize they were together until after reading the thread.  When we saw them they were in front of Alumni Plaza skating towards Washington and presumably towards the watch party.  

The Neely dummy was in the road near the intersection of Pearl and Washington and, as stated above, people were beating up on it before the skaters were there.  (Initially thought it was a fight in the street, because there were a lot of people around it, then as we got closer saw it was a tackling dummy.)

Maybe Guelli is a true guerrilla marketing genius, but regardless of whether he is or isn't, considering Buffalo sports fans came up with everything that goes on before Bills games entirely on their own, would chalk it up to 2 random groupings of nuts finding synergy serendipitously trying to find their own 15 minutes of fame until it's proven otherwise.

[That Aud Smell]

1 hour ago, PASabreFan said:

Don't have to @ you. You read my every post in hopes you are mentioned.

Why you son of a — …

Yeah. You right.

1 hour ago, PASabreFan said:

Feelings as well. With a healthy dose of logic and common sense.

Feelings arising from first-hand experience? From being there?

Invaluable on this issue, imo.

Because I maintain that nobody who witnessed this stuff would ever (reasonably) attribute it to a corporate promotions team.

[PASabreFan]

2 hours ago, That Aud Smell said:

Why you son of a — …

Yeah. You right.

Feelings arising from first-hand experience? From being there?

Invaluable on this issue, imo.

Because I maintain that nobody who witnessed this stuff would ever (reasonably) attribute it to a corporate promotions team.

Is this going to be the Sabres' version of the 2.5 million people who attended the Comeback Game? Damn, how many of you witnessed the spontaneous birth of Bob vs. The Blade Gang?

And how exactly would your version of what happened look any different than mine?

If Pete said, Nick you set the dummy up around 5, and we'll have the Blade Gang tooling around down by the plaza until around 5:15, then a secretary in a pillbox hat will open an umbrella... wouldn't it look like what you saw?

Edited July 24 by PASabreFan

[thewookie1]

The Blade Gang was at least to start fully natural. One of my coworkers is related to one of the gang. 

[That Aud Smell]

3 hours ago, PASabreFan said:

Is this going to be the Sabres' version of the 2.5 million people who attended the Comeback Game? Damn, how many of you witnessed the spontaneous birth of Bob vs. The Blade Gang?

And how exactly would your version of what happened look any different than mine?

If Pete said, Nick you set the dummy up around 5, and we'll have the Blade Gang tooling around down by the plaza until around 5:15, then a secretary in a pillbox hat will open an umbrella... wouldn't it look like what you saw?

you’re funny.

i won’t debate what the difference is between being physically present to witness something and judging that same thing from a static distance.

from a coal-smudged ivory tower, mayhaps?

also, i was in fact at the comeback game. we didn’t leave (although i wanted to).

[Taro T]

10 minutes ago, That Aud Smell said:

you’re funny.

i won’t debate what the difference is between being physically present to witness something and judging that same thing from a static distance.

from a coal-smudged ivory tower, mayhaps?

also, i was in fact at the comeback game. we didn’t leave (although i wanted to).

 

Was NOT at the comeback game, but did buy our very 1st VCR for it.

WAS there apparently moments before the Dummy's and Rollerbladers' Reeses Peanutbutter Cup moment.  It seemed innocuous enough.  (So, clearly it was nefarious.  4D chess my friend; 4D chess.)

[PASabreFan]

5 minutes ago, Taro T said:

 

Was NOT at the comeback game, but did buy our very 1st VCR for it.

WAS there apparently moments before the Dummy's and Rollerbladers' Reeses Peanutbutter Cup moment.  It seemed innocuous enough.  (So, clearly it was nefarious.  4D chess my friend; 4D chess.)

No one said it was nefarious. It was fun (to a point) and a brilliant bit of Guelli Marketing.

[That Aud Smell]

2 hours ago, PASabreFan said:

No one said it was nefarious. It was fun (to a point) and a brilliant bit of Guelli Marketing.

i prefer your fan fiction to be plausible.

[Taro T]

2 hours ago, PASabreFan said:

No one said it was nefarious. It was fun (to a point) and a brilliant bit of Guelli Marketing.

Really, it being nefarious wasn't implied?

If it wasn't nefarious, what's the point of the diatribe?

[PASabreFan]

: flagrantly wicked or corrupt : evil

[PASabreFan]

And there was no diatribe other than by Smell. HE is the one who introduced my previous comments on The Blade Gang.

[PASabreFan]

4 hours ago, That Aud Smell said:

you’re funny.

i won’t debate what the difference is between being physically present to witness something and judging that same thing from a static distance.

from a coal-smudged ivory tower, mayhaps?

also, i was in fact at the comeback game. we didn’t leave (although i wanted to).

Coal?

[FrenchConnection44]

On 7/16/2026 at 10:18 AM, LGR4GM said:

There's a very real chance the Sabres are worse next year. Their chance generation versus chance suppression still ranks in the mediocre region of the league. The Sabres "got away with it" this season by having above average goalies and by being a very good shooting team. Part of that good shooting involves Alex Tuch and his 16.9% shooting, which now has to be replaced. Unlike when we dealt JJP, I worry greatly about the teams ability to replace Tuch's scoring. When we talk about doing it in the aggregate you start running into math issues, namely ice time. 1.3/g60 for Alex Tuch need replacing and that is no small task. The idea that we can just replace it in the aggregate relies on the idea that we can add .2 to Benson and .1 to Doan, and .4 to Östlund or whatever but eventually, we run out of Tuch's ice time to dish out. They have to be able to score more but also more efficiently. If I give Benson an extra 3mins of time on ice, sure he will score more but if it is the same rate he has now, we are not replacing what Tuch did, we are just spinning wheels. Tuch ran at 19mins a game, how will Benson or Doan handle those extra shifts over an 84game season? 

The metrics from the article are flawed because they don't have an accurate measure for Doan, Benson, Östlund, Kulich, Helenius due to them not being in the league long enough for the maths to level off. That is why we appear to have lost so much value on paper, you are trading statistically stable and known Tuch and Byram for unstable and unknown Zellweger, Crevier, and the others. Byram going does not worry me as much because I think the Sabres D is especially adapted to absorb the loss. Tuch leaving without any replacement but internal hope is a bigger gamble. 

The pros of their approach is their core is signed for roughly 4 more years before we need to re-sign any of the big names. They are also this side of 30, so they have a little time before declines become a big problem. By not signing Tuch, they saved a massive 8yr 10.5mil caphit from their books on a player that will probably start to decline in 2027. They have the ability to ride out this year while the forwards grow and also know that defensive reinforcements are in-bound as soon as late March. There is a lot of young talent and a good mix of veteran players in a locker room that seems to have finally figured out their culture. 

The cons are they might end up on the outside looking in this year. The forward group is certainly less and even if I feel okay with the defense, they are less too. We don't know if the youngins can pick up the slack. For all I know Kulich drops 25g, 25a when he comes back and Östlund has a 45pt season or something, Benson figures out his shooting and gets in the 60s. That could all easily happen but until it does, the con is they are worse on paper than they were on June 1. Burning a year for young guys to grow into roles they might not is a risky strategy that hurt multiple rebuilds over the years. In the end though, I haven't seen any high end forwards get traded outside of maybe McTavish (jury is out and so he's in that young and ? pile). Seems to me the league isn't ready to move these high end guys and the Sabres aren't willing to meet whatever the pricing is. 

In the end, I think the defense will be fine in part because I think even without Tuch, the forwards know their jobs in rotation and the defense as a whole is actually slightly improved in the bottom 4. Offensively, I don't see how they match some of their shooting metrics from last year especially without Tuch around. Kulich coming off a lost season is a long bet to get you 25+ goals. Samuelsson shot at 11.9% which is DOUBLE his career sh%. I just think there is going to be some regression in the shooting and in the goalies. They will have to play a bit less river hockey if they want to make the playoffs. How much have they learned after 13 games of post season play? How much have they learned after their torrid pace from December to April? I guess we shall see. 

Funny you say this (I don’t disagree) here about Tuch. When I said the same in the offseason thread you said just the opposite. That we “have replaced Tuch (and Byram).”

The reality is we have replaced neither except with wishful thinking and hope. So like every offseason the past decade plus we are hoping several (not just one or two) young players improve significantly. 

There may be reason enough given the cap but that money will have to be used on new additions. Which is far from a given in light of offseasons past  

And due to the trades, we are rather thin at forward and really all skaters at the NHL level as far as trade packages in order to swing a deal for Helly. 

 

[That Aud Smell]

7 hours ago, PASabreFan said:

Coal?

Dammit - I meant oil.

Duh.

[Pimlach]

On 7/23/2026 at 12:54 PM, PASabreFan said:

Well, Pete said he is the one who told Terry the drought must end. He is a hero in franchise history.

I was able to dig up some info this past weekend. 

Met a young Canadian guy while sailing in Buffalo on Saturday evening.  He said he knows the Blade Gang members and that they are crazies that were just having a good time.   He did stress they are some wild guys.  

After their initial act, which was 100% their own planning, their fame came from internet social media and national TV.    After that the Sabres approached them and organized the pounding the drum and other events.   

The idea was not from Sabres marketing or Guelli. The Sabres glommed on. 

[shrader]

1 hour ago, Pimlach said:

I was able to dig up some info this past weekend. 

Met a young Canadian guy while sailing in Buffalo on Saturday evening.  He said he knows the Blade Gang members and that they are crazies that were just having a good time.   He did stress they are some wild guys.  

After their initial act, which was 100% their own planning, their fame came from internet social media and national TV.    After that the Sabres approached them and organized the pounding the drum and other events.   

The idea was not from Sabres marketing or Guelli. The Sabres glommed on. 

Up next: PA calls into question the coincidental timing of your encounter