Dom's fancy stats of The Atlantic: Sabres having least best offseason in NHL so far

[shrader]

If we had the least best, who had the best worst? The least least? How about the worst worst?

 

edit: I wish I had read the insanity in this thread before I posted this. 

Edited July 17 by shrader

[That Aud Smell]

38 minutes ago, PASabreFan said:

My problem is the Sabres are trying to pull one over on us. You can tell the real folks, like the mom at the beginning of the hype video. This dude has been featured in three videos now. He might be a fan, but he's not just a fan. And he is 100% the voice of the sked vid as the kids say.

Hmm. Interesting.

And goddammit, you're going to make me listen to that hype video and compare it with the schedule release video, aren't you?

36 minutes ago, dudacek said:

No chance the content creators are lazy? The found him and like him so they keep going back to the well?

They don't even have to be lazy. Maybe they just think he's a quintessential Buffalo Sabres fan and they like the vibe he brings to what they produce.

Rabbit Hole Time!

Where tf is @Ghost of Dwight Drane when you need him.

[PromoTheRobot]

8 minutes ago, shrader said:

If we had the least best, who had the best worst? The least least? How about the worst worst?

Teams with most cap make most deals. Film at 11.

[#freejame]

4 minutes ago, That Aud Smell said:

Hmm. Interesting.

And goddammit, you're going to make me listen to that hype video and compare it with the schedule release video, aren't you?

They don't even have to be lazy. Maybe they just think he's a quintessential Buffalo Sabres fan and they like the vibe he brings to what they produce.

Rabbit Hole Time!

Where tf is @Ghost of Dwight Drane when you need him.

I've spent too much time on youtube today finding every other teams schedule release video outside of ours. Can you link it next time you're analyzing the Zapruder Film video?

 

Never mind it's just on the site. IDK why they didnt put it on their youtube like every other team

Edited July 17 by #freejame

[#freejame]

After watching the release video, I understand why they didn't put it on youtube. Every single team's video I've seen is better. You've let me down, Pete. You've let me down. 

[That Aud Smell]

@PASabreFan

is this our guy?

https://www.facebook.com/nick.mastrocovo/

if so, he's apparently a well known Buffalo sports lunatic (and memorabilia collector).

https://spectrumlocalnews.com/nys/buffalo/stampede-stories/2022/10/21/bills-fan-turns-basement-into-shrine-to-buffalo-sports

[That Aud Smell]

yeah - that's him. novelty hard hat and all in this pic.

https://www.facebook.com/photo/?fbid=10231956092876326&set=ecnf.1567502164

(this pic here is different than the one linked.)

[That Aud Smell]

I recall that @PASabreFan had his antennae up for the Blade Gang being some sort of Guelli-engineered stunt.

Not so. Very much not so, as those "kids" repeatedly got quite drunk and were transported to the foot of Washington Street in the bed of one of their dad's pickups. They were/are the real deal (imperfections and all).

I think the same goes for Nick Mastrovoco, PA. You should apologize to him -- here, publicly.

[PASabreFan]

So that's at least four gigs for Nick.

[That Aud Smell]

It would appear that shameless franchise shill Nicholas Mastrocovo laid the groundwork for his Pegula-funded PsyOp by being a garbage man for the City of Buffalo in the late 1990s.

ON A TEMPORARY BASIS only.

36 minutes ago, PASabreFan said:

So that's at least four gigs for Nick.

Edited July 17 by That Aud Smell

[That Aud Smell]

[That Aud Smell]

3 minutes ago, That Aud Smell said:

It would appear that shameless franchise shill asshat Nicholas Mastrovoco laid the groundwork for his Pegula-funded PsyOp by being a garbage man for the City of Buffalo in the late 1990s.

Apologies. I ftfy, PA.

[#freejame]

This is the board at it's best.

[DarthEbriate]

I haven't read the article, but I do know that Dom's model(s) aren't just the previous season. Kesselring's still getting credit for his Utah year -- which balloons his value. Danforth and Kulich's season-ending injuries reduced their overall prior value.

I do agree the Sabres' offseason (on paper, for the NHL roster) has been the worst. They lost their 2nd leading scoring F and their 2nd leading scoring D -- both established veterans. And they replaced them both with folks (let's say Kulich and Zellweger [Anaheim's 5D] for now) who have very small sample sizes.

[PASabreFan]

1 hour ago, That Aud Smell said:

I never had any.

BOOM.

[Huckleberry]

The same guys predicting the Bruins not making the playoffs last 3 years 😄

[PASabreFan]

1 hour ago, That Aud Smell said:

I recall that @PASabreFan had his antennae up for the Blade Gang being some sort of Guelli-engineered stunt.

Not so. Very much not so, as those "kids" repeatedly got quite drunk and were transported to the foot of Washington Street in the bed of one of their dad's pickups. They were/are the real deal (imperfections and all).

I think the same goes for Nick Mastrovoco, PA. You should apologize to him -- here, publicly.

And Nick just somehow ends up the ref? Come on, now. It was great gorilla marketing, until it wasn't.

[That Aud Smell]

5 minutes ago, PASabreFan said:

And Nick just somehow ends up the ref? Come on, now. It was great gorilla marketing, until it wasn't.

i love me some gorilla marketing. lol.

i can't be sure about how that stuff came together. 

i will say this much:

1. there is NFW the Sabres brass would have had any traceable link to Blade Gang given how those knuckleheads conducted themselves as they staggered their way to the foot of Washington.

2. the Sabres marketing people appear to have engaged smartly with things that were happening organically, on the street.

3. the two times i was on Perry Street for the dummy tackling and Blade Gang rallying, there was not so much as a whiff of an intern in a quarter zip from the organ-eye-zation. during one of the demonstrations (Canadiens), things got dicey when some a-holes  supporting MTL took it on themselves to disrupt the "show" (such as it was). there was plenty of shoving, a couple of punches that landed nowhere. so, as i said: NFW this originated with the Sabres. 

4. i'd sh1t in my hat if what you're theorizing is substantially true.

[That Aud Smell]

what i will commit energy to doing: getting nick to log onto this board and tell his story. 

[#freejame]

2 minutes ago, That Aud Smell said:

what i will commit energy to doing: getting nick to log onto this board and tell his story. 

I hope he turns out to be @Buffalonill

[Archie Lee]

1 hour ago, DarthEbriate said:

I haven't read the article, but I do know that Dom's model(s) aren't just the previous season. Kesselring's still getting credit for his Utah year -- which balloons his value. Danforth and Kulich's season-ending injuries reduced their overall prior value.

I do agree the Sabres' offseason (on paper, for the NHL roster) has been the worst. They lost their 2nd leading scoring F and their 2nd leading scoring D -- both established veterans. And they replaced them both with folks (let's say Kulich and Zellweger [Anaheim's 5D] for now) who have very small sample sizes.

Does  Kesselring getting credit for his time in Utah balloon his value?  Or does it just fairly account for the reality that he has done more in his young career than land in Ruff's dog house while struggling to play through injury and recovery?

[PerreaultForever]

10 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

I'm 100% certain, no one here is "content" with it. Most seem pretty nervous about it and most expect the team to regress. The question is how much will they regress? 

Fair enough, but I do think there's less outrage than there was with Adams. Jarmo still seems to be in a bit of a honeymoon phase. He did get good value in the Byram trade (even though it's future for present) but he basically gave Kesselring away, none of the deadline deals really had an impact, hasn't made the big splash move (like a Hellebuyck), and really has just hired a bunch of old cronies to sip beverages in the box seats all season. I'm not impressed. 

[PerreaultForever]

13 hours ago, dudacek said:

I see regression as a reasonable fear for: Doan, Mule, UPL, Lyon, Zucker.

The first two had unexpected jumps to a significantly higher level, the latter two had late-career outlier seasons and UPL has been a model of inconsistency.

I see progression as a reasonable hope for: Benson, Östlund, Kulich, Helenius, Quinn, Power, Zellweger and Norris.

The younger players have resumes and trend lines that point towards it, while Norris has to be healthy sometime.

The rest could have unexpected jumps in either direction, but by and large we know who they are.

 

All of that is possible but any number of those young guys could just as easily regress for a year. Benson gets too cocky and sloppy enjoying his rat role too much and not learning the balance yet (similar to Marchand's early development), Kulich loses his confidence and his health issues influence his play, Östlund and Helenius just have that old sophomore slump, Zellewegger has trouble with a new system, and Norris was relatively healthy (for him) last year and so he could easily be injured again. 

I think Mule will be fine. I think that was his coming out and he's a core piece now and will stay that way. He's going to be steady all the way, just like his father was. The rest of the first list I agree. Is Doan that good or was it a peak outlier? I think he will be okay and a core piece but it's not certain. Zucker I expect to drop off, just a question of how quickly. Goaltending wtfk.

[That Aud Smell]

i do wanna stick tap the changing of this thread's name.

[DarthEbriate]

2 hours ago, Archie Lee said:

Does  Kesselring getting credit for his time in Utah balloon his value?  Or does it just fairly account for the reality that he has done more in his young career than land in Ruff's dog house while struggling to play through injury and recovery?

You're right, the multi-season approach gives Kesselring credit for his past, which showed an ascending player. The model might be able to account for some doghouse, multiple injuries, and learning new system variables or even change of scenery variables...

I just look at it as math depending on our point of view.

If the stats say that Utah Kesselring was a 75, and Buffalo Kesselring was a 60, and the model says 2027 Kesselring is a 67.

We as Sabres fans are like -- all we saw was a 60-rated, easily replaced #7 guy. Crevier is a similar 70 guy coming in from Chicago. From our POV, we'd say we gained +10 in that exchange. But the model that counts multiple seasons says we only gained a +3.