Peyton Krebs signs a 4 year 4.5 million AAV Contract

[PASabreFan]

Did NJ also have a do nothing GM?

[LGR4GM]

26 minutes ago, PASabreFan said:

Did NJ also have a do nothing GM?

NJ didn't fix their defensive issues which worries me about Buffalo. Our chances against are still too high and we need to better at limiting chances this upcoming season.

[Taro T]

3 hours ago, mjd1001 said:

In 2022-23, New Jersey was that young team and they had 112 points.

In 2023-24, they fell down to 81 points.

Injuries were part of it. 

But goaltending.  In 2022-23, New Jersey had a trio of goaltenders who weren't of star level, but the team put up well over a .900 save percentage. Their goaltending outperformed.  The next year, Their goaltending fell off a cliff. Vanecek went from 52gp, .911 save percentage to 32gp, .890. Schmid went from 18gp, .922, to 19gp, .895.

Is it possible in Buffalo, there could be a few more injuries this year (possible) and that the goaltending goes from guys outperforming their career numbers and they come back down to earth (i personally think likely, to a certain extent).  That is EXACTLY what happened to NJ.  Great goaltending, goalies having one year outperforming what they actually were, propelled them to that one great season.  It can happen here.

Goaltending masks a lot of deficiencies in your game, and can make young up-and-coming teams look better than they actually are.

And those that are opposed to the possible Hellebucyk trade are banking on at least 2 parts of the 3 headed monster not regressing this coming season.  They point out Helly's down year; but there is just as good a chance, if not better, that he'll bounce back than there is that the 3 headed mosnter improves from where it was.

Making the playoffs this year is really important because it cements in the hockey world's minds that the Sabres ARE relevant and not just a 1 year blip.

[dudacek]

8 hours ago, PerreaultForever said:

Well you are banking on one of them replacing Tuch. That's a significant thing. 

We subtracted two top players and we did not add players of that caliber (at least not yet)

To me, the player replacing Tuch in the role of the 18-minutes a night all-situations 60-point winger is Zach Benson.

Kulich or Helenius is replacing Benson as a 40-point middle-sixer.

Your last sentence stands.

3 hours ago, mjd1001 said:

In 2022-23, New Jersey was that young team and they had 112 points.

In 2023-24, they fell down to 81 points.

Injuries were part of it. 

But goaltending.  In 2022-23, New Jersey had a trio of goaltenders who weren't of star level, but the team put up well over a .900 save percentage. Their goaltending outperformed.  The next year, Their goaltending fell off a cliff. Vanecek went from 52gp, .911 save percentage to 32gp, .890. Schmid went from 18gp, .922, to 19gp, .895.

Is it possible in Buffalo, there could be a few more injuries this year (possible) and that the goaltending goes from guys outperforming their career numbers and they come back down to earth (i personally think likely, to a certain extent).  That is EXACTLY what happened to NJ.  Great goaltending, goalies having one year outperforming what they actually were, propelled them to that one great season.  It can happen here.

Goaltending masks a lot of deficiencies in your game, and can make young up-and-coming teams look better than they actually are.

I’ve said it before: people against the Hellebuyck trade regularly hold up as their reason three things that are outliers: his season last year, UPL’s season last year and Lyon’s season last year.

Regression in goal this coming season is highly likely if we run it back in the nets.

Edited July 6 by dudacek

[Archie Lee]

4 hours ago, mjd1001 said:

In 2022-23, New Jersey was that young team and they had 112 points.

In 2023-24, they fell down to 81 points.

Injuries were part of it. 

But goaltending.  In 2022-23, New Jersey had a trio of goaltenders who weren't of star level, but the team put up well over a .900 save percentage. Their goaltending outperformed.  The next year, Their goaltending fell off a cliff. Vanecek went from 52gp, .911 save percentage to 32gp, .890. Schmid went from 18gp, .922, to 19gp, .895.

Is it possible in Buffalo, there could be a few more injuries this year (possible) and that the goaltending goes from guys outperforming their career numbers and they come back down to earth (i personally think likely, to a certain extent).  That is EXACTLY what happened to NJ.  Great goaltending, goalies having one year outperforming what they actually were, propelled them to that one great season.  It can happen here.

Goaltending masks a lot of deficiencies in your game, and can make young up-and-coming teams look better than they actually are.

This is largely why I don’t buy that Ruff has made significant structural change to how the Sabres play. A Brind’Amour team would not collapse in that fashion. I realize that might be unfair as Brind’Amour is likely the best coach in hockey today. I think we are a key injury and goaltending regression away from being out of the mix. 

[RETURNTOGLORY]

19 hours ago, RETURNTOGLORY said:

Krebs has settled into more of a bottom-six role. He brings energy, penalty killing, forechecking, and can play center or wing, but he hasn't produced enough offense to command a significant raise. At the same time, he's still young enough that there's some upside. And all factors considered, he had an excellent playoffs. Matching Tuch in points. 

I'd expect something in this range:

1 year: $1.3–1.6 million AAV (a "prove it" deal).

2 years: $1.5–1.8 million AAV.

3 years: $1.8–2.2 million AAV if the team believes he can still develop into a reliable third-line center.

For the Sabres specifically, my preference would be:

2 years × $1.6 million AAV (total value: $3.2 million).

That gives Buffalo cost certainty while giving Krebs enough time to establish himself. If he breaks out offensively, he'll be in line for a much bigger contract afterward. If he remains a fourth-line player, the contract is still very manageable.

Given Buffalo's current cap situation and roster construction, I wouldn't want to go much above $2 million per season unless he shows a clear jump in offensive production. His value today is driven more by his defensive play, versatility, and work ethic than by scoring.

BUT seeing some of the current crazy $$$ contacts thus far....

Why the sad face @caseydean ? Need a hug?

[PerreaultForever]

8 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

Helenius hasn't even stepped forward yet is my point. We don't even have a good baseline for NHL Helenius. If saying that is picky, than yup. 100%

If you have read ANY of my earlier posts (and I know you have whether you admit it or not) you know I am very high on Helenius and I have said I can see him as a 1C eventually and sooner rather than later. The question is only can you rely on his development to be linear and forward or will he have ups and downs before he gets there. We haven't really added to this roster from last year. We really are just doing the same old thing of hoping young guys develop and fill the roles. It's risky to say the least and can easily fail. 

[PerreaultForever]

8 hours ago, mjd1001 said:

In 2022-23, New Jersey was that young team and they had 112 points.

In 2023-24, they fell down to 81 points.

Injuries were part of it. 

But goaltending.  In 2022-23, New Jersey had a trio of goaltenders who weren't of star level, but the team put up well over a .900 save percentage. Their goaltending outperformed.  The next year, Their goaltending fell off a cliff. Vanecek went from 52gp, .911 save percentage to 32gp, .890. Schmid went from 18gp, .922, to 19gp, .895.

Is it possible in Buffalo, there could be a few more injuries this year (possible) and that the goaltending goes from guys outperforming their career numbers and they come back down to earth (i personally think likely, to a certain extent).  That is EXACTLY what happened to NJ.  Great goaltending, goalies having one year outperforming what they actually were, propelled them to that one great season.  It can happen here.

Goaltending masks a lot of deficiencies in your game, and can make young up-and-coming teams look better than they actually are.

Yup. That's what I'm saying. There are a lot of similarities so the same thing could happen. Lyon for example had a good year but remember Detroit ditched him and felt goaltending was a big issue when they did that. UPL? Do you have faith in him? Big question mark. If we land Helleybuck it's a different conversation. 

[PerreaultForever]

4 hours ago, dudacek said:

To me, the player replacing Tuch in the role of the 18-minutes a night all-situations 60-point winger is Zach Benson.

Kulich or Helenius is replacing Benson as a 40-point middle-sixer.

Your last sentence stands.

I’ve said it before: people against the Hellebuyck trade regularly hold up as their reason three things that are outliers: his season last year, UPL’s season last year and Lyon’s season last year.

Regression in goal this coming season is highly likely if we run it back in the nets.

I love Benson, and I think he's a very important player going forward. The contract was good. Not so sure we'll get that sort of production out of him just yet. It might take a few more years to get to that level. 

Goaltending is most definitely a big big question mark and right now not a strength, maybe even a weakness. 

[Taro T]

3 minutes ago, PerreaultForever said:

I love Benson, and I think he's a very important player going forward. The contract was good. Not so sure we'll get that sort of production out of him just yet. It might take a few more years to get to that level. 

Goaltending is most definitely a big big question mark and right now not a strength, maybe even a weakness. 

Have to remember when evaluating whether Benson is "earning" his contract or not this year that the cap went up about 10% this off-season.  So, that $7.5MM deal this coming season is effectively a $6.8MM deal last season.

It's going to be easier and easier to earn this money.

[PerreaultForever]

10 minutes ago, Taro T said:

Have to remember when evaluating whether Benson is "earning" his contract or not this year that the cap went up about 10% this off-season.  So, that $7.5MM deal this coming season is effectively a $6.8MM deal last season.

It's going to be easier and easier to earn this money.

Of course. I think it's a very good contract. Won't have any offer sheets against him either this way 🙂

 

[LGR4GM]

33 minutes ago, PerreaultForever said:

If you have read ANY of my earlier posts (and I know you have whether you admit it or not) you know I am very high on Helenius and I have said I can see him as a 1C eventually and sooner rather than later. The question is only can you rely on his development to be linear and forward or will he have ups and downs before he gets there. We haven't really added to this roster from last year. We really are just doing the same old thing of hoping young guys develop and fill the roles. It's risky to say the least and can easily fail. 

No we can't rely on him. I agree. 

[Taro T]

52 minutes ago, PerreaultForever said:

If you have read ANY of my earlier posts (and I know you have whether you admit it or not) you know I am very high on Helenius and I have said I can see him as a 1C eventually and sooner rather than later. The question is only can you rely on his development to be linear and forward or will he have ups and downs before he gets there. We haven't really added to this roster from last year. We really are just doing the same old thing of hoping young guys develop and fill the roles. It's risky to say the least and can easily fail. 

Didn't notice this one when it was 1st stated.

Yes, on the surface they're doing a lot of what they did in the summer of '23.  And do expect this roster as currently constructed would/will take a step back from the 109 it put up last season.

BUT, rather than relying almost exclusively on young kids and a couple of guys starting to come into their primes, they're relying on guys in the primes (Thompson, Malenstyn, Dahlin, Samuelsson, Timmins, Norris, McLeod, & UPL) are all 26-28 years old today.  And many of the kids being relied on to take another step are 24-25 (Quinn, Doan, Krebs, Crevier, and Ellis).

Yeah, there's still a bunch of younger guys, but even some of them like Power and Benson are close to or over 200 NHL games played.  That's 15 of 20 roster slots taken up on any given night with guys that are in or real close to their primes and all but 2 of them played a lot in this system last year.

And having so many of those guys at the ages they should be is part of why it would've been so great to land Hellybucyk this year (even though probably 3 of those bodies were going out the door to land him; they also had 2 reasonable replacements to reduce any issues from going too youth heavy - Trocheck in for McLeod and Kane in for Quinn/Östlund along with Helly in for UPL).

[SABRES 0311]

How long until we find out the results?

[Cheektorado]

Just now, SABRES 0311 said:

How long until we find out the results?

NLT 1 August if I remember correctly.

[Taro T]

Just now, SABRES 0311 said:

How long until we find out the results?

Hearing hasn't even been scheduled as the window for club elected arbitration just closed 20 minutes ago.  

 

The hearings will be scheduled between IIRC July 20 - August 1.  

[nfreeman]

7 hours ago, dudacek said:

To me, the player replacing Tuch in the role of the 18-minutes a night all-situations 60-point winger is Zach Benson.

Kulich or Helenius is replacing Benson as a 40-point middle-sixer.

 

Yes, but still:  Benson was at that level in the playoffs, and so was Tuch, at least in the 1st round.  So they are subtracting one guy who was at that level when their season ended.  It's not realistic to plan to fill that void with one of the kids.

[...]

2 hours ago, Taro T said:

Didn't notice this one when it was 1st stated.

Yes, on the surface they're doing a lot of what they did in the summer of '23.  And do expect this roster as currently constructed would/will take a step back from the 109 it put up last season.

BUT, rather than relying almost exclusively on young kids and a couple of guys starting to come into their primes, they're relying on guys in the primes (Thompson, Malenstyn, Dahlin, Samuelsson, Timmins, Norris, McLeod, & UPL) are all 26-28 years old today.  And many of the kids being relied on to take another step are 24-25 (Quinn, Doan, Krebs, Crevier, and Ellis).

Yeah, there's still a bunch of younger guys, but even some of them like Power and Benson are close to or over 200 NHL games played.  That's 15 of 20 roster slots taken up on any given night with guys that are in or real close to their primes and all but 2 of them played a lot in this system last year.

And having so many of those guys at the ages they should be is part of why it would've been so great to land Hellybucyk this year (even though probably 3 of those bodies were going out the door to land him; they also had 2 reasonable replacements to reduce any issues from going too youth heavy - Trocheck in for McLeod and Kane in for Quinn/Östlund along with Helly in for UPL).

This post should really put to bed a lot of threads around here.

[PerreaultForever]

3 hours ago, Taro T said:

Didn't notice this one when it was 1st stated.

Yes, on the surface they're doing a lot of what they did in the summer of '23.  And do expect this roster as currently constructed would/will take a step back from the 109 it put up last season.

BUT, rather than relying almost exclusively on young kids and a couple of guys starting to come into their primes, they're relying on guys in the primes (Thompson, Malenstyn, Dahlin, Samuelsson, Timmins, Norris, McLeod, & UPL) are all 26-28 years old today.  And many of the kids being relied on to take another step are 24-25 (Quinn, Doan, Krebs, Crevier, and Ellis).

Yeah, there's still a bunch of younger guys, but even some of them like Power and Benson are close to or over 200 NHL games played.  That's 15 of 20 roster slots taken up on any given night with guys that are in or real close to their primes and all but 2 of them played a lot in this system last year.

And having so many of those guys at the ages they should be is part of why it would've been so great to land Hellybucyk this year (even though probably 3 of those bodies were going out the door to land him; they also had 2 reasonable replacements to reduce any issues from going too youth heavy - Trocheck in for McLeod and Kane in for Quinn/Östlund along with Helly in for UPL).

Yes, that's all true. The key point is they are relying on everybody who was good to be good, which is fair, but also (and this is the key) 2 young guys to fill the holes left by Byram and Tuch. That part is same old Sabres as it was in the Adams era. 

[dudacek]

1 hour ago, nfreeman said:

Yes, but still:  Benson was at that level in the playoffs, and so was Tuch, at least in the 1st round.  So they are subtracting one guy who was at that level when their season ended.  It's not realistic to plan to fill that void with one of the kids.

Yeah, I see your point but I don't think it addresses the big picture.

It's not nearly as bad as the "we wont' miss Tuch because he got no points against Montreal" posts, but it is straying into that territory because we aren't talkng about the Sabres at any particular point in time.

For last year's 109-point team— which I think is the correct jumping off point for this conversation — Zach Benson was a was a 15-minute a night, 43-point player, Alex Tuch was a 19-minute a night 66-point player.

For a repeat division winner, those are the holes that have to be filled.

[Taro T]

25 minutes ago, PerreaultForever said:

Yes, that's all true. The key point is they are relying on everybody who was good to be good, which is fair, but also (and this is the key) 2 young guys to fill the holes left by Byram and Tuch. That part is same old Sabres as it was in the Adams era. 

Expecting ONLY 2 young guys with no particular track record to step up into the top 6/top 4 to happen is nothing like what was expected in the Adams era.

Adams filled far more of those roles with kids that had little to no experience in those roles.  A combo of Benson / Doan is going to be expected to backfill Tuch's role and then a kid or Krebs will be expected to backfill that slot.  That weakens the club, but not most likely significantly.

Zellweger &/or Crevier will be expected to backfill Byram which will almost definitely be a step back to where they were with Byram towards the end of the season.  But the 3rd pairing very well could be giving them more than they got out of the 3rd pairing last year; mitigating some of that step back and maybe even 2 or so months into the season Zellweger and Power could be rounding into a solid pairing.

Both backfills could end up a net positive by the time they're heading into the playoff stretch.

Still want more moves, but it isn't like they need to be holding aces to have a chance at getting back into the dance.

[...]

If we didn't have Benson and Doan and traded for them, everyone would be like "yeah, these guys are deals, look at those contracts, and they have so much experience for being so young. Second round of the playoffs last year? Get back, baby!"

Let's remember, Byram's Stanley Cup experience was always used to add gravitas to the pickup at the time.

[PerreaultForever]

1 hour ago, Taro T said:

Expecting ONLY 2 young guys with no particular track record to step up into the top 6/top 4 to happen is nothing like what was expected in the Adams era.

Adams filled far more of those roles with kids that had little to no experience in those roles.  A combo of Benson / Doan is going to be expected to backfill Tuch's role and then a kid or Krebs will be expected to backfill that slot.  That weakens the club, but not most likely significantly.

Zellweger &/or Crevier will be expected to backfill Byram which will almost definitely be a step back to where they were with Byram towards the end of the season.  But the 3rd pairing very well could be giving them more than they got out of the 3rd pairing last year; mitigating some of that step back and maybe even 2 or so months into the season Zellweger and Power could be rounding into a solid pairing.

Both backfills could end up a net positive by the time they're heading into the playoff stretch.

Still want more moves, but it isn't like they need to be holding aces to have a chance at getting back into the dance.

Well sure you can make that argument that it's different from the Adams era but the real question is - are we better than last year? Presumably you need to be to get back into the playoffs and/or go further. That "better" is looking like it's dependent on young players stepping up and that key element is similar to the Adams philosophy. 

[Richard Noggin]

13 minutes ago, PerreaultForever said:

Well sure you can make that argument that it's different from the Adams era but the real question is - are we better than last year? Presumably you need to be to get back into the playoffs and/or go further. That "better" is looking like it's dependent on young players stepping up and that key element is similar to the Adams philosophy. 

Agreed, but it's interesting to consider how difficult the Eastern Conference was last season, especially our division, and still the Sabres finished where they did, won a series with conviction, and then coulda/shoulda/woulda'd the 2nd round (with an honorable mention from the refs and the NHL). Can't historically predict the conference and the division will be THAT good again next season. The overall competition level is more likely to dip at least a little. The key is not to be part of the cohort responsible for that regression. 

[TageMVP]

8 hours ago, PerreaultForever said:

I love Benson, and I think he's a very important player going forward. The contract was good. Not so sure we'll get that sort of production out of him just yet. It might take a few more years to get to that level. 

Goaltending is most definitely a big big question mark and right now not a strength, maybe even a weakness. 

Nah. UPL is gonna be back with a vengeance. I saw the way he threw his helmet after losing game 7. That's some real fire right there 

Old UPL alternating between good and bad years is GONE 

Count on it 

Krebs sucks