Peyton Krebs signs a 4 year 4.5 million AAV Contract

[RETURNTOGLORY]

Krebs has settled into more of a bottom-six role. He brings energy, penalty killing, forechecking, and can play center or wing, but he hasn't produced enough offense to command a significant raise. At the same time, he's still young enough that there's some upside. And all factors considered, he had an excellent playoffs. Matching Tuch in points. 

I'd expect something in this range:

1 year: $1.3–1.6 million AAV (a "prove it" deal).

2 years: $1.5–1.8 million AAV.

3 years: $1.8–2.2 million AAV if the team believes he can still develop into a reliable third-line center.

For the Sabres specifically, my preference would be:

2 years × $1.6 million AAV (total value: $3.2 million).

That gives Buffalo cost certainty while giving Krebs enough time to establish himself. If he breaks out offensively, he'll be in line for a much bigger contract afterward. If he remains a fourth-line player, the contract is still very manageable.

Given Buffalo's current cap situation and roster construction, I wouldn't want to go much above $2 million per season unless he shows a clear jump in offensive production. His value today is driven more by his defensive play, versatility, and work ethic than by scoring.

BUT seeing some of the current crazy $$$ contacts thus far....

[dudacek]

25 points is roughly the cutoff between 3rd and 4th line production.

Peyton Krebs has objectively established himself as a legitimate 3rd line player over his bridge contract.

All the above contract scenarios are completely unrealistic in the current marketplace.

Krebs signed his expired 2-year $1.4M AAV in a flat cap world, coming off a year where he scored 4 goals and 17 points. He's since scored 28 and 39 points.

The Leafs just signed:

• Roslovic $4M 36 points, 69 games, age 29
• Duhaime $2.6M 9 points, 82 games, age 29
• Sissons $4.25M 11 points, 66 games, age 32
• Blueger $2.5M 17 points, 35 games, age 31

To fill out their bottom 6

Personally wouldn't trade Krebs (39 points, 82 games, age 25) for any of them.

Barrett Hayton — also 25 — just signed a 1-year $4.7M offer sheet coming off a 25-point season. Whether you think Krebs fits the profile or not, $4M give or take seems to be the ballpark going rate for a 30-point 3rd-liner two years away from UFA.

It's a new cap world out there where the median player will soon be making $5M.

I think people need to readjust their expectations.

Edited July 5 by dudacek

[Cheektorado]

2 minutes ago, dudacek said:

I think people need to readjust their expectations.

I was just going to say I think he will get around $3.5M - $4M.

[irregularly irregular]

$5M AAV for Krebs compared to Benson at $7M seems like highway robbery. We will see what shakes out. 

[dudacek]

Just now, Cheektorado said:

I was just going to say I think he will get around $3.5M - $4M.

Agree, and if they go for term it will be higher.

[dudacek]

2 minutes ago, irregularly irregular said:

$5M AAV for Krebs compared to Benson at $7M seems like highway robbery. We will see what shakes out. 

$5M would be an overpay unless its like a 6-year deal and they expect 40 points every year, which I think would be a mistake.

Krebs should be paid as 30-point scorer with intangibles and versatility, but without "special" qualities like say Josh Anderson's size/speed combination.

Edited July 5 by dudacek

[Cheektorado]

4 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Agree, and if they go for term it will be higher.

I was thinking $4M is the top of term.  I guess we'll find out soon enough.

[oddoublee]

10 minutes ago, dudacek said:

25 points is roughly the cutoff between 3rd and 4th line production.

Peyton Krebs has objectively established himself as a legitimate 3rd line player over his bridge contract.

All the above contract scenarios are completely unrealistic in the current marketplace.

Krebs signed his expired 2-year $1.4M AAV in a flat cap world, coming off a year where he scored 4 goals and 17 points. He's since scored 28 and 39 points.

The Leafs just signed:

• Roslovic $4M 36 points, 69 games, age 29
• Duhaime $2.6M 9 points, 82 games, age 29
• Sissons $4.25M 11 points, 66 games, age 32
• Blueger $2.5M 17 points, 35 games, age 31

To fill out their bottom 6

Personally wouldn't trade Krebs (39 points, 82 games, age 25) for any of them.

Barrett Hayton — also 25 — just signed a 1-year $4.7M offer sheet coming off a 25-point season. Whether you think Krebs fits the profile or not, $4M give or take seems to be the ballpark going rate for a 30-point 3rd-liner two years away from UFA.

It's a new cap world out there where the median player will soon be making $5M.

I think people need to readjust their expectations.

I believe your assessment is correct. He probably deserves 3.7 to 4.5m. and good for him. I just don't want the sabres to be the ones paying it. 

Whether it's this year or next....we need to save money to improve the top 6 or really, the top 3 via a C. 

[tom webster]

Yegor Chinakovh just signed a three year deal for $6.3M, which is likely going to be Jack Quinn’s starting point. Krebs will be somewhere between $3.75-$4.25. Like others have said, people have to adjust their expectations. Buffalo, like Montreal have done a great job locking up some of their young talent. At some point, however, you have to decide how many players you want on long term deals. Do you really want nine to ten forwards locked up for multiple years? I think you need some flexibility.

[Shoot da Puck]

We ate so screwd

[oddoublee]

Just now, Shoot da Puck said:

We ate so screwd

I've never had so screwd. I'll try anything though

[dudacek]

8 minutes ago, tom webster said:

Yegor Chinakovh just signed a three year deal for $6.3M, which is likely going to be Jack Quinn’s starting point. Krebs will be somewhere between $3.75-$4.25. Like others have said, people have to adjust their expectations. Buffalo, like Montreal have done a great job locking up some of their young talent. At some point, however, you have to decide how many players you want on long term deals. Do you really want nine to ten forwards locked up for multiple years? I think you need some flexibility.

I haven't run the comparables from an arb perspective, but I'm pretty sure Krebs won't be awarded anything the Sabres can't work with.

Jarmo didn't seem to be leaning that way, but an argument can be made that arbitration with a one-year award might be a good thing to postpone where he fits into the big picture. That said, term for a 25-year-old like Krebs might be easily tradeable as the cap keeps expanding

Edited July 5 by dudacek

[Nacho Libre]

I feel like we sign him to use cap space if we can’t find something better to do with it. 

[Broken Ankles]

Should’ve been part of a trade for Coleman.  Calgary would welcome him with open arms. 

[tom webster]

2 minutes ago, Broken Ankles said:

Should’ve been part of a trade for Coleman.  Calgary would welcome him with open arms. 

Coleman refused to waive to Buffalo at the deadline, doubt if he would’ve now.

[Carmel Corn]

Dumb question…..if a player files for arbitration, can he be traded before his hearing?

[oddoublee]

2 minutes ago, Carmel Corn said:

Dumb question…..if a player files for arbitration, can he be traded before his hearing?

Great question. Yes, they can be traded

[Scottysabres]

22 minutes ago, Shoot da Puck said:

We ate so screwd

Why would you eat the so screwed?

[Broken Ankles]

36 minutes ago, tom webster said:

Coleman refused to waive to Buffalo at the deadline, doubt if he would’ve now.

Unfamiliar with this trade speculation.  If there was something in place it wasn’t reported by the usual outlets.  What were the terms?  

[PerreaultForever]

9 hours ago, Dr. Who said:

You're painting a worst case scenario. Might work the other way, or somewhere in the middle. "Looks like we're stuck though" is likely true. What kind of plausible trade is out there? I was interested in Marchenko, but the rumor is Montreal had a ridiculous offer out there and it still wasn't enough to move him. 

Of course. That's why I started it "what if". It is the worst case scenario (unless you also include injuries to key players on top of that). 

But you might remember Ruff took New jersey to the playoffs and everybody was saying they are the up and coming young powerhouse and then they crashed back and Ruff got canned. You can see similarities. Not saying this will happen, just saying you can't bank on youth necessarily all delivering right away. The wheels can come off quickly. 

9 hours ago, dudacek said:

Except you aren't betting on Kulich, Östlund and Helenius to carry you, you're betting on 1 or 2 of them to be effective middle six players.

The Doan and Benson questions are much more pertinent IMO, because these are guys we are betting on to be top 6 players. I am more comfortable making that bet on them than I am making it on Mason Marchment, or Blake Coleman.

Your mileage may vary.

Thanks. Will correct.

 

Well you are banking on one of them replacing Tuch. That's a significant thing. 

We subtracted two top players and we did not add players of that caliber (at least not yet)

[PerreaultForever]

8 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

Tbf Helenius isn't a sophomore. He's Calder eligible.

ffs I know. I'm using the term loosely to just say young guys in general can impress and then step back. They can have ups and downs rather than linear trajectories. You knew that, but you just want to get all picky. It's your thing. 

[LGR4GM]

4 hours ago, PerreaultForever said:

ffs I know. I'm using the term loosely to just say young guys in general can impress and then step back. They can have ups and downs rather than linear trajectories. You knew that, but you just want to get all picky. It's your thing. 

Helenius hasn't even stepped forward yet is my point. We don't even have a good baseline for NHL Helenius. If saying that is picky, than yup. 100%

[Huckleberry]

Read somewhere that arbitration could get him 3x 3.5 AAV

[Hoss]

3 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

Read somewhere that arbitration could get him 3x 3.5 AAV

He can only get 1 or 2 years (and the Sabres get to decide that, since he elected).

[mjd1001]

4 hours ago, PerreaultForever said:

But you might remember Ruff took New jersey to the playoffs and everybody was saying they are the up and coming young powerhouse and then they crashed back and Ruff got canned. You can see similarities. Not saying this will happen, just saying you can't bank on youth necessarily all delivering right away. The wheels can come off quickly. 

In 2022-23, New Jersey was that young team and they had 112 points.

In 2023-24, they fell down to 81 points.

Injuries were part of it. 

But goaltending.  In 2022-23, New Jersey had a trio of goaltenders who weren't of star level, but the team put up well over a .900 save percentage. Their goaltending outperformed.  The next year, Their goaltending fell off a cliff. Vanecek went from 52gp, .911 save percentage to 32gp, .890. Schmid went from 18gp, .922, to 19gp, .895.

Is it possible in Buffalo, there could be a few more injuries this year (possible) and that the goaltending goes from guys outperforming their career numbers and they come back down to earth (i personally think likely, to a certain extent).  That is EXACTLY what happened to NJ.  Great goaltending, goalies having one year outperforming what they actually were, propelled them to that one great season.  It can happen here.

Goaltending masks a lot of deficiencies in your game, and can make young up-and-coming teams look better than they actually are.