Do the overrated Sabres make the playoffs next year?

[PASabreFan]

7 minutes ago, Nacho Libre said:

A team taking a step back after taking their big step forward is actually quite common. Nothing guaranteed, but I suspect we may be an anomaly on that front, fittingly so after being an anomaly in terms of finally making it. With Jarmo here from the start, I really don’t see the players willing to let their playoff positioning slip away 

I dare say they had their step back in the playoffs, and they are pissed at themselves, and it will spur them on.

I also think this is a business for these guys, and they'll respond better to Jarmo making moves than keeping the sabrohood together.

[Nacho Libre]

Just now, PASabreFan said:

I dare say they had their step back in the playoffs, and they are pissed at themselves, and it will spur them on.

I also think this is a business for these guys, and they'll respond better to Jarmo making moves than keeping the sabrohood together.

2 good points. Hadn’t thought of the first 

I don’t think Jarmo will be as tempted to sit on it as fans, I think he understands you can’t start attempting to tread water 

[ska-T Chitown]

10 minutes ago, PASabreFan said:

I dare say they had their step back in the playoffs, and they are pissed at themselves, and it will spur them on.

I also think this is a business for these guys, and they'll respond better to Jarmo making moves than keeping the sabrohood together.

I am not quite as ready to blame their playoff exit on a "step back" They went (like all the other teams) from playing a mix of bottom-feeders, middling team, and playoff teams, to playing only playoff-level teams (100 or more each) night after night. It is much easier for at team (Montreal) to get a read on what the Sabres do and develop full game plans for it when they are the only team you play for 7 games. I think Montreal found a couple flaws in Buffalo's game and took advantage of them. 'Canes obviously have fewer exploitable flaws - or at least flaws Montreal was able to exploit.

I would also ask the mods to give you 10,000 Sabrespace bucks for "sabrohood" ... pure genius.

[mjd1001]

1 hour ago, JohnC said:

I'm aware that our goaltenders are far from being elite. But the real source of our impressive goaltending stats is due to team defense that also includes the responsible play of our forwards. Collectively, the team seemed to adhere to what Ruff was espousing since he got behind the bench. Add to that is the high-end play of our top two pairings. In my view, Samuelsson's play was at such a level that I would rank him in the upper tier in this league. 

There are only a few elite goaltenders in this league. Our netminders are certainly not in that category. But I do believe that within in the goalie rankings we have a solid group. I would not have much interest in dispatching a lot of our young talent to get a Hellybuck caliber goalie. And that's what it would take. Stay the course!  

As far as our guys not being elite...yeah.  That is why I think the team in front of them has to get better or they risk missing the playoffs.  They PLAYED elite last year (again, best save percentage in the league and 3rd best high danger save percentage). If you say they aren't 'elite' (and I agree with you) that means it is likely they aren't going to play as well as they did for most of last season. Hence, the need for the team in front of them to get better.

As far as them playing better defensively  so the team defense was better in front of them?  Honestly, I really didn't see much of a difference.  My "Eyes" told me they were giving up some pretty big chances and were getting bailed out by their goalies a lot, they would end up winning those games and most of us forgot about the bad defense because they got the "W".

When you look to see if there are numbers to support that opinion, just about eveything supports that opinion. They were in the bottom 10 in the league in shots allowed.  Well maybe those shots were all from the perimeter? Nope, High danger scoring chances allowed and high danger 'regular' scoring chances allowed they were middle of the league.  Last year UPL faced 5.6 actual shots (nor 'chances') but actual shots per game from the slot. This year he faced 6.8. The quality and locations of the shots he faced got WORSE, the difference is he (and Lyon) played a lot better.

My 'eye test' is my opinion, other people have other opions, some of us will be right and wrong, so I just looked up the actual stats:

Shots allowed per game:  Last year 28.9  This year 29.0

Scoring chances allowed per game:  Last year 29.2  This year 28.4

High danger chances allowed/game: Last year  11.8  This year 12.4

Expected goals allowed per game:  Last year 3.2 per game  This year  3.3 per game.

By what I see (which may not count for much) but also by the stats, they were the same team in terms of team defense in front of the goalies as they were last year, maybe slightly worse even, just with a LOT better performance by those goalies.

Again, what I am HOPING for is the goalies, while maybe not as good as last year, will be well above average, and the younger guys stepping in will prove to keep improving, especially positionally/defensively.

Edited May 31 by mjd1001

[Big Guava]

The choices are too ridiculous to bother even voting.

[Nacho Libre]

30 minutes ago, ska-T Chitown said:

I am not quite as ready to blame their playoff exit on a "step back" They went (like all the other teams) from playing a mix of bottom-feeders, middling team, and playoff teams, to playing only playoff-level teams (100 or more each) night after night. It is much easier for at team (Montreal) to get a read on what the Sabres do and develop full game plans for it when they are the only team you play for 7 games. I think Montreal found a couple flaws in Buffalo's game and took advantage of them. 'Canes obviously have fewer exploitable flaws - or at least flaws Montreal was able to exploit.

I would also ask the mods to give you 10,000 Sabrespace bucks for "sabrohood" ... pure genius.

Not so much a “step back” in this case contextually as a “humbling”, in essence. Maybe teams that take the step back year have to deal with a league adjusting to them and said team needing to re-adjust: perhaps to PA’s point that process was already initiated in the playoffs 

[Weave]

2 hours ago, JohnC said:

I do have supporting evidence. It's their record with the roster Jarmo inherited. 

The Sabres didn't have a good season----they had a tremendous season. For 3/4s of the season they had the top one two records. They improved 30 points from the previous season. And they lost the seventh game in the second round. I'm not complaining about this young roster that without question that has a lot of young players to get even better. 

That is not evidence that they wouldn’t have been even better if more substantial moves were made.  The only evidence you have is that a team playing very well continued to play very well with the roster essentially unchanged.

Its a shocking revelation, I tell ya.

[JohnC]

7 minutes ago, Weave said:

That is not evidence that they wouldn’t have been even better if more substantial moves were made.  The only evidence you have is that a team playing very well continued to play very well with the roster essentially unchanged.

It’s a shocking revelation, I tell ya.

I’ll take a 109 point season from a team that hadn’t made the playoffs in a generation and not complain about their extraordinary success. 
 

My expectation is that the number of young players already on the roster will get better. That doesn’t mean that we’ll duplicate the point total that we got next year. 

[Weave]

Just now, JohnC said:

I’ll take a 109 point season from a team that hadn’t made the playoffs in a generation and not complain about their extraordinary success. 
 

My expectation is that the number of young players already on the roster will get better. That doesn’t mean that we’ll duplicate the point total that we got next year. 

I agree with all of this, but this wasn’t what I was responding to.

[TageMVP]

Theres no way I'd "stay the course" as JohnCGMbot so casually puts it. He always says that lol even years ago 

The Sabres could have and should have beaten Montreal, at least judging by the past two games played against them 

I hope losing to Montreal is driving the Sabres AND Jarmo nuts

If there are no changes or minimal changes, then Jarmo is no better than Adams 

Yeah, I said it 

[pi2000]

UPL suffers season ending injury in October

Ruff losses the room like he does in year 3 everywhee he's been

Tage battles chronic back issues all season, misses final 2 months

Lindy steals Apperts propecia and regrows a full head of hair

Appert goes on medical leave due to hairloss, Duffer takes over the powerplay

Jarmo trades for Bobrovsky at the deadline

Tage returns for the playoffs

Bobrovksy and a fresh Tage lead them to their first Stanley Cup

 

[JohnC]

1 hour ago, mjd1001 said:

As far as our guys not being elite...yeah.  That is why I think the team in front of them has to get better or they risk missing the playoffs.  They PLAYED elite last year (again, best save percentage in the league and 3rd best high danger save percentage). If you say they aren't 'elite' (and I agree with you) that means it is likely they aren't going to play as well as they did for most of last season. Hence, the need for the team in front of them to get better.

As far as them playing better defensively  so the team defense was better in front of them?  Honestly, I really didn't see much of a difference.  My "Eyes" told me they were giving up some pretty big chances and were getting bailed out by their goalies a lot, they would end up winning those games and most of us forgot about the bad defense because they got the "W".

When you look to see if there are numbers to support that opinion, just about eveything supports that opinion. They were in the bottom 10 in the league in shots allowed.  Well maybe those shots were all from the perimeter? Nope, High danger scoring chances allowed and high danger 'regular' scoring chances allowed they were middle of the league.  Last year UPL faced 5.6 actual shots (nor 'chances') but actual shots per game from the slot. This year he faced 6.8. The quality and locations of the shots he faced got WORSE, the difference is he (and Lyon) played a lot better.

My 'eye test' is my opinion, other people have other opions, some of us will be right and wrong, so I just looked up the actual stats:

Shots allowed per game:  Last year 28.9  This year 29.0

Scoring chances allowed per game:  Last year 29.2  This year 28.4

High danger chances allowed/game: Last year  11.8  This year 12.4

Expected goals allowed per game:  Last year 3.2 per game  This year  3.3 per game.

By what I see (which may not count for much) but also by the stats, they were the same team in terms of team defense in front of the goalies as they were last year, maybe slightly worse even, just with a LOT better performance by those goalies.

Again, what I am HOPING for is the goalies, while maybe not as good as last year, will be well above average, and the younger guys stepping in will prove to keep improving, especially positionally/defensively.

You may be too immersed with the isolated defensive stat numbers without factoring in that our defensive group should be measured not only by their defensive numbers but also evaluated for their offensive contributions. Especially when rating our top two pairs, you have to recognize that the players on the unit are factors for much of our offensive. You have to consider more how this team roster-wise is built and what it accentuates, especially from the backside. It's skating and moving the puck into the offensive zone. I'm not suggesting that you are wrong in your statistical evaluation as much as I'm suggesting is that the lense you are using to measure defensive performances needs to be expanded more to include the overall game. 

[Night Train]

Sure they will.

Then again, I'm a blind fan..

 

[Nacho Libre]

1 hour ago, pi2000 said:

UPL suffers season ending injury in October

Ruff losses the room like he does in year 3 everywhee he's been

Tage battles chronic back issues all season, misses final 2 months

Lindy steals Apperts propecia and regrows a full head of hair

Appert goes on medical leave due to hairloss, Duffer takes over the powerplay

Jarmo trades for Bobrovsky at the deadline

Tage returns for the playoffs

Bobrovksy and a fresh Tage lead them to their first Stanley Cup

 

This probably does actually happen. I just don’t know if it’s within our particular parallel universe. 

[oddoublee]

1 hour ago, JohnC said:

You may be too immersed with the isolated defensive stat numbers without factoring in that our defensive group should be measured not only by their defensive numbers but also evaluated for their offensive contributions. Especially when rating our top two pairs, you have to recognize that the players on the unit are factors for much of our offensive. You have to consider more how this team roster-wise is built and what it accentuates, especially from the backside. It's skating and moving the puck into the offensive zone. I'm not suggesting that you are wrong in your statistical evaluation as much as I'm suggesting is that the lense you are using to measure defensive performances needs to be expanded more to include the overall game. 

Dead on. That's why teams don't compare spreadsheets and game time and call it a night. No matter how badly team mensa wishes it to be true. 

[mjd1001]

12 minutes ago, oddoublee said:

Dead on. That's why teams don't compare spreadsheets and game time and call it a night. No matter how badly team mensa wishes it to be true. 

Again, I don't need a spreadsheet to SEE that they were bailed out a lot by the goalies this year when they weren't last year.

The general Fandom excused a lot of the defensive lapses and miscues if the end result was a win on the scoreboard. They happened, they happened a lot. The 'spreadsheets' only verify what actually happened.

[JohnC]

45 minutes ago, mjd1001 said:

Again, I don't need a spreadsheet to SEE that they were bailed out a lot by the goalies this year when they weren't last year.

The general Fandom excused a lot of the defensive lapses and miscues if the end result was a win on the scoreboard. They happened, they happened a lot. The 'spreadsheets' only verify what actually happened.

Did the spreadsheets explain why that after the first quarter of the season the Sabres were the best or second best team record wise in the league? Ultimately, at least for me,  the record is a more compelling stat than an over reliance on too many stats. 

[oddoublee]

2 hours ago, mjd1001 said:

Again, I don't need a spreadsheet to SEE that they were bailed out a lot by the goalies this year when they weren't last year.

The general Fandom excused a lot of the defensive lapses and miscues if the end result was a win on the scoreboard. They happened, they happened a lot. The 'spreadsheets' only verify what actually happened.

Huh, what? you say something?

[PerreaultForever]

10 hours ago, Nacho Libre said:

A team taking a step back after taking their big step forward is actually quite common. Nothing guaranteed, but I suspect we may be an anomaly on that front, fittingly so after being an anomaly in terms of finally making it. With Jarmo here from the start, I really don’t see the players willing to let their playoff positioning slip away 

There are far too many variables at this stage. We also have to consider what other teams in the division do or don't do as well as what we do or don't do. 

the team is in a good place and if they make the right moves they can definitely get to the top over the next few years. As I said after the season, I expect we will be a cup contender unless management screws it up royally. 

[TageMVP]

15 minutes ago, PerreaultForever said:

There are far too many variables at this stage. We also have to consider what other teams in the division do or don't do as well as what we do or don't do. 

the team is in a good place and if they make the right moves they can definitely get to the top over the next few years. As I said after the season, I expect we will be a cup contender unless management screws it up royally. 

Two part question and if your answers are acceptable, you are re-hired 

What are the "right moves"? 

Do you think its possible that management (Jarmo and friendz) actually does screw up this team? 

 

[...]

8 hours ago, mjd1001 said:

Again, I don't need a spreadsheet to SEE that they were bailed out a lot by the goalies this year when they weren't last year.

The general Fandom excused a lot of the defensive lapses and miscues if the end result was a win on the scoreboard. They happened, they happened a lot. The 'spreadsheets' only verify what actually happened.

This entire post is ludicrous. Maybe you're on the wrong team message board? This board is for the Buffalo Sabres.

 

[PerreaultForever]

3 hours ago, TageMVP said:

Two part question and if your answers are acceptable, you are re-hired 

What are the "right moves"? 

Do you think its possible that management (Jarmo and friendz) actually does screw up this team? 

 

Now first, who says I want to be re-hired?

But, the right moves are to get more playoff guys on the roster but there's too many variations to be specific. A true 1C is obviously a huge one that could put us right in contention. The Robert Thomas type thing. Another option would be a star goalie so we move to the Helleybuck conversation. Nobody can predict the right moves in advance, but he's paid the big bucks to make them. 

So for argument, 

Let Tuch walk (too expensive for his age)

Lock up Benson like Doan.

I'd still like to explore Byram for Michkov (as the main pieces) but you can sign Byram to term as well. Make the decision now though and not when his contract expires. Him I don't want to see walk for nothing. 

Then you move to the trades as above or others. 

I do think in time Helenius will be a top center and you will see a good line of Benson-Helenius-Thompson but I don't want to wait and have other things change or age etc. while you wait.

But actual trades are impossible to talk about since we're not on the phone calls, he is. 

Now do I think they can screw it up? Sure they can. Bad trades happen all the time. Philly fans are still complaining about Fletcher paying Arizona to take Gostisbhere who now might win a cup with Carolina while Philly is looking for a PP QB. Leaf fans still want to know how they lost Minten and currently need a 2C. Bad trades are frequent and you never know. Maybe his mistake will just be believing in UPL and Lyon and UPL loses his mojo and Lyon goes back to playing at his worst at the same time while Ellis is nothing and Levi starts in Edmonton. Goalies are weird and a mistake there can sink a ship fast. Anything can happen.

[mjd1001]

12 hours ago, JohnC said:

Did the spreadsheets explain why that after the first quarter of the season the Sabres were the best or second best team record wise in the league? Ultimately, at least for me,  the record is a more compelling stat than an over reliance on too many stats. 

After the first quarter of the season, THAT is when the goaltending really kicked into high gear. So yes, the 'spreadsheets' did, as did my own eyes, and actual reality.

If you look through the old GDTs, I'm sure there are a lot of post of people that were 'happy with the win' but made comments about the goaltending saving the team. I remember reading a lot of them.

10 hours ago, oddoublee said:

Huh, what? you say something?

Obviously more than you can comprehend.

Edited June 1 by mjd1001

[mjd1001]

5 hours ago, ... said:

This entire post is ludicrous. Maybe you're on the wrong team message board? This board is for the Buffalo Sabres.

 

Nope I'm on the correct message board. My posts are directly related to the Sabres.

I just see the team for what it is, a team that needs to get a lot better in front of the goaltender.  If they roll back most of the same team, sign Tuch to a big deal and play him big minutes (limiting the minutes of the younger guys), then the results next year will be no better than they were this year, and likely worse.  I want more than that from this team.

They were a slightly to moderately (at most) improved team in front of the goalies this year compared to last...that happened to get MUCH better goaltending.  If one knows hockey, you don't need spreadsheets to see that.

Edited June 1 by mjd1001

[JohnC]

3 hours ago, mjd1001 said:

After the first quarter of the season, THAT is when the goaltending really kicked into high gear. So yes, the 'spreadsheets' did, as did my own eyes, and actual reality.

If you look through the old GDTs, I'm sure there are a lot of post of people that were 'happy with the win' but made comments about the goaltending saving the team. I remember reading a lot of them.

 

The evidence/stats you are referring is making the point that our goaltending was a key component to last year's success. I don't see why you are so unsettled by our current situation. We both agree that although our goalie tandem to trio is not elite. It is however, more than sufficient to continue to be an important factor to this team's near future success. I don't understand what the disagreement is or why you are so queasy about it for next year?  What are we arguing over?

The point I was stressing in my prior posts is that the defensive stats that you previously cited don't fully give an accurate portrayal of how our overall defensive unit is playing because it fails to factor in the offensive production of that unit. Dahlin, Power, Byram and even Samuelsson shouldn't only be judged by their defensive analytics because there is a sizeable offensive contribution from that group that isn't always revealed by the isolated defensive stats.