Round 1 wrap & MTL/TB potential matchup

[Spoonman]

Fantastic win last night!!! So during this break in action: 

A look back to Round 1 & look forward to Round 2.

ROUND 1 
Simple Series Summary (analytics view):

Metric / Edge

- Corsi (possession) / Sabres (clear)

- Expected Goals / Sabres (dominant)

- High-danger chances / Sabres

- Goaltending / Slight Bruins edge

- Special Teams / Neutral

- Game control (win probability) / Sabres

Overall: Buffalo was the better team structurally

- They controlled: possession, chance    quality, pace of play

Boston’s only real equalizer:

- Goaltending (which couldn’t sustain over 6 games)

Onward & upward! 

ROUND 2

BUF /T Baybies

Tampa Bay’s edge: playoff experience and system stability

- Tampa has been one of the most consistent postseason teams of the last decade.

- They’re built around disciplined defensive layers, strong special teams, and proven high-end playoff performers.

- Even when they’re not dominant 5-on-5, they rarely beat themselves—low-risk puck management and structured zone coverage.

Buffalo’s edge: speed, transition, and offensive volatility

- Buffalo’s best path is usually pace: quick breakouts, aggressive forecheck, and forcing turnovers.

- They tend to generate chances in bunches when their transition game is working.

- The question in a series like this is whether they can maintain that speed against a team that closes space well.

 

BUF / Les Horseshoe Rouge

Buffalo Sabres edges

Scoring depth & puck possession 

- Buffalo can pressure Montreal across all four lines, not just the top unit.

Defensive structure + transition game

- Buffalo’s blue line gives them faster breakouts, cleaner exits under pressure, more counterattack

Goaltending stability

- Buffalo’s goaltending has been more stable in this playoff stretch, particularly with Alex Lyon stepping in and performing well in elimination games  .

Montreal Canadiens edges

Pure scoring skill:

- Cole Caufield, Nick Suzuki, young high-end skill depth (Slafkovský, Hutson)

Goaltending volatility = high ceiling

- goalie play is less consistent, but when it hits, it can swing series

Special teams danger

- power play is more explosive in short bursts than Buffalo’s structured attack (you don’t say!) 😖

Edited May 2 by Spoonman

[PASabreFan]

Holy megathreads.

[Nacho Libre]

Maybe overly simplistic but I don’t have the hubris to predict the team that emerges victorious between these 2 is actually not the better team. I’d happily take it at face value. Tampa definitely has a level separate from what we saw in regular season games, so even stylistic advantages one way or another I’d find difficult to parse 

I also don’t discount the idea that though we’d be the favourite on paper against both, and I’d pick the Sabres to win in both (as of now thinking in 7, instead of 6 like round 1), there’s notable underdog subtext we can still tap into against Tampa if we are being realistic, as they are they “be the man beat the man” team in the bracket due to past experience. In a sense there might be more pressure for Buffalo against the Habs

[SabresfaninSB]

Just tell me who to root for ffs!!!   I come to this Board trying not to think. 

[Nacho Libre]

3 minutes ago, SabresfaninSB said:

Just tell me who to root for ffs!!!   I come to this Board trying not to think. 

No one. There’s no upside. If you root for a team and they win and they beat us “we want Florida!” style it adds insult to injury. If you root for a team and they win and we then beat them, the feeling of hypothetical predicting the “correct” team isn’t going to register relative to the euphoria of actually simply winning 

Edited May 2 by Nacho Libre

[TheAud]

4 minutes ago, Nacho Libre said:

No one. There’s no upside. If you root for a team and they win and they beat us “we want Florida!” style it adds insult to injury. If you root for a team and they win and we then beat them, the feeling of hypothetical predicting the “correct” team isn’t going to register relative to the euphoria of actually simply winning 

[dudacek]

I call BS on Tampa having another level.

Quick first round knockouts in each of the past 3 years simply do not support that statement.

They were dead even with Montreal over the regular season, and they are dead even after 6 playoff games.

I do buy the “beat the man to be the man” idea. I think it applies to either team and I am looking forward to either matchup.

I get the feeling that Montreal/Buffalo could be the start of an amazing rivalry run.  Love to strike the first blow.

And stepping on Tampa’s throat on the way up would be very satisfying.

Edited May 2 by dudacek

[Nacho Libre]

9 minutes ago, dudacek said:

I call BS on Tampa having another level.

Quick first round knockouts in each of the past 3 years simply do not support that statement.

They were dead even with Montreal over the regular season, and they are dead even after 6 playoff games.

I do buy the “beat the man to be the man” idea. I think it applies to either team and I am looking forward to either matchup.

I get the feeling that Montreal/Buffalo could be the start of an amazing rivalry run.  Love to strike the first blow.

And stepping on Tampa’s throat on the way up would be very satisfying.

Tampa won’t have been eliminated in the first round if they are our opponent 

If Tampa advances, the narrative ceases to be “well they can’t get past the first anymore”. It’s “they are back”. The scenario where we play the “Tampa that can’t get past the first” doesn’t exist: that’s my point. If Tampa is the second round opponent, it’s not the team that’s equal to Montreal in the regular season: it’s the team that beat Montreal. Be careful what you wish for 

Also, “to beat the man” definitely doesn’t apply to Montreal, certainly not in the way I meant it. I see them as a more less on-equal-footing up and coming team like us. There are a boatload of analysts who would take Tampa above us simply because there are lots of playoff proven components on their roster, up to and including Cooper

- - - 

Also, by FAR the most worrying individual variable in a potential opponent is Vasilevskiy 

Edited May 2 by Nacho Libre

[dudacek]

From what I’ve seen of Tampa is that they are very well-coached and hyper competitive squad that gives you what they have almost every single game.

Im not pushing back against the fact they are a very good team, Im pushing back against the popular refrain that they have another level we haven’t seen yet.

They are what we’ve seen.

[Nacho Libre]

7 minutes ago, dudacek said:

From what I’ve seen of Tampa is that they are very well-coached and hyper competitive squad that gives you what they have almost every single game.

Im not pushing back against the fact they are a very good team, Im pushing back against the popular refrain that they have another level we haven’t seen yet.

They are what we’ve seen.

I’m talking about the perceptional underdog. If we play Tampa, they’ll have “found another gear” in perception, and risen above Montreal. There’s no other option- we *can’t play* the Tampa that didn’t rise above the levels they’ve been to recently. We can simply only play the Tampa who did, in fact, find another gear 

you are the one who introduced “can’t get past first round” into the argument, that’s necessarily no longer valid if they are ultimately the opponent. The dynamic shifts as new variables are introduced. If we don’t think Tampa themselves are going to get a boost from a Game 7 victory, and have enhanced and renewed belief in themselves, I’m not sure what to say 

I’d also love to play the Tampa that loses in the first round this year, and every year. Where do I sign up

Edited May 2 by Nacho Libre

[SABRES 0311]

Here’s a bunch writers’ predictions.

https://www.nhl.com/news/2026-stanley-cup-playoffs-2nd-round-predictions-by-nhl-writers

[Spoonman]

5 hours ago, SabresfaninSB said:

Just tell me who to root for ffs!!!   I come to this Board trying not to think. 

Short answer:

Sabres vs Canadiens → Sabres likely favored (roughly ~60–65%)

Sabres vs Lightning → much closer (roughly ~50–55% Sabres, near coin flip)

7 hours ago, Spoonman said:

Fantastic win last night!!! So during this break in action: 

A look back to Round 1 & look forward to Round 2.

ROUND 1 
Simple Series Summary (analytics view):

Metric / Edge

- Corsi (possession) / Sabres (clear)

- Expected Goals / Sabres (dominant)

- High-danger chances / Sabres

- Goaltending / Slight Bruins edge

- Special Teams / Neutral

- Game control (win probability) / Sabres

Overall: Buffalo was the better team structurally

- They controlled: possession, chance    quality, pace of play

Boston’s only real equalizer:

- Goaltending (which couldn’t sustain over 6 games)

Onward & upward! 

ROUND 2

BUF /T Baybies

Tampa Bay’s edge: playoff experience and system stability

- Tampa has been one of the most consistent postseason teams of the last decade.

- They’re built around disciplined defensive layers, strong special teams, and proven high-end playoff performers.

- Even when they’re not dominant 5-on-5, they rarely beat themselves—low-risk puck management and structured zone coverage.

Buffalo’s edge: speed, transition, and offensive volatility

- Buffalo’s best path is usually pace: quick breakouts, aggressive forecheck, and forcing turnovers.

- They tend to generate chances in bunches when their transition game is working.

- The question in a series like this is whether they can maintain that speed against a team that closes space well.

 

BUF / Les Horseshoe Rouge

Buffalo Sabres edges

Scoring depth & puck possession 

- Buffalo can pressure Montreal across all four lines, not just the top unit.

Defensive structure + transition game

- Buffalo’s blue line gives them faster breakouts, cleaner exits under pressure, more counterattack

Goaltending stability

- Buffalo’s goaltending has been more stable in this playoff stretch, particularly with Alex Lyon stepping in and performing well in elimination games  .

Montreal Canadiens edges

Pure scoring skill:

- Cole Caufield, Nick Suzuki, young high-end skill depth (Slafkovský, Hutson)

Goaltending volatility = high ceiling

- goalie play is less consistent, but when it hits, it can swing series

Special teams danger

- power play is more explosive in short bursts than Buffalo’s structured attack (you don’t say!) 😖

To be clear- I asked AI and these were the replies. Just a convo starter. 

[Spoonman]

MTL/TB match up game 7

https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-edge-stats-tampa-bay-lightning-montreal-canadiens-game-7-playoffs-2026

[K-9]

With a tip of the hat to Captain Obvious, we are gonna play who we are gonna play, regardless, so it makes no difference to me in the least. 

But can we throw away this idea that we lack playoff experience if it ends up being the ‘Ning? We saw how that narrative played out as the Sabres popped their playoff cherry in fine fashion against the Bruins and their vast playoff experience. The “they lack playoff experience” is a tired narrative, especially when applied to a young, hungry, talented team. 

[Weave]

1 hour ago, K-9 said:

With a tip of the hat to Captain Obvious, we are gonna play who we are gonna play, regardless, so it makes no difference to me in the least. 

But can we throw away this idea that we lack playoff experience if it ends up being the ‘Ning? We saw how that narrative played out as the Sabres popped their playoff cherry in fine fashion against the Bruins and their vast playoff experience. The “they lack playoff experience” is a tired narrative, especially when applied to a young, hungry, talented team. 

I don’t think it applies any longer.  They blew that concern out of the water against Boston.

[Stads]

I think I prefer the Lightning in Round 2. Our speed has shown to be a problem for them. Montreal can match our speed and still have the high end talent like Tampa (Suzuki, Caufield, Slafkovsky, Hutson). Obviously, Tampa could steal a series with goaltending. The real thing that scares me about Tampa is them being dirty bastards and the refs let a lot of it go. I think they will take a lot of dumb penalties, as long as it's called correctly 

[K-9]

55 minutes ago, Weave said:

I don’t think it applies any longer.  They blew that concern out of the water against Boston.

Yep. I saw it referenced as a possible advantage for TB if we face tham next round and felt a need to clarify.

[bg17]

On 5/2/2026 at 12:56 PM, Nacho Libre said:

If Tampa advances, the narrative ceases to be “well they can’t get past the first anymore”. It’s “they are back”

Are there people out there that care about “the narrative”? 

[Huckleberry]

57 minutes ago, Stads said:

I think I prefer the Lightning in Round 2. Our speed has shown to be a problem for them. Montreal can match our speed and still have the high end talent like Tampa (Suzuki, Caufield, Slafkovsky, Hutson). Obviously, Tampa could steal a series with goaltending. The real thing that scares me about Tampa is them being dirty bastards and the refs let a lot of it go. I think they will take a lot of dumb penalties, as long as it's called correctly 

Goaltending on montreal can be good too seeing Dobes is not playing bad either.  

[Nacho Libre]

40 minutes ago, bg17 said:

Are there people out there that care about “the narrative”? 

The topic of discussion was whether the sabres might be perceived as the underdog vs Tampa 

The conversation around Tampa Bay absolutely changes if they are now a team that’s advanced to round 2 as opposed to the team that “can’t get past the first round” 

do I think we are more likely to be perceived at large as the underdog vs Tampa than Montreal? Yes. Do I think those types of narratives can be to the benefit or detriment of a team? I do, but then again I’ve only been watching hockey for 39 years

Edited May 3 by Nacho Libre

[thewookie1]

On 5/2/2026 at 3:30 PM, SABRES 0311 said:

Here’s a bunch writers’ predictions.

https://www.nhl.com/news/2026-stanley-cup-playoffs-2nd-round-predictions-by-nhl-writers

Well based on that Sabres are definitely favored on MTL but about 50/50 on TBL

Strangely, Dan Rosen is the sole person to have Buffalo beat TBL but lose to MTL where as the opposite was the most common.

[Nacho Libre]

Just now, thewookie1 said:

Well based on that Sabres are definitely favored on MTL but about 50/50 on TBL

Strangely, Dan Rosen is the sole person to have Buffalo beat TBL but lose to MTL where as the opposite was the most common.

People can “buy” whatever narratives they want. There’s also reality 

[bg17]

6 minutes ago, Nacho Libre said:

The topic of discussion was whether the sabres might be perceived as the underdog vs Tampa 

The conversation around Tampa Bay absolutely changes if they are now a team that’s advanced to round 2 as opposed to the team that “can’t get past the first round” 

do I think we are more likely to be perceived at large as the underdog vs Tampa than Montreal? Yes. Do I think those types of narratives can be to the benefit or detriment of a team? I do, but then again I’ve only been watching hockey for 39 years

You are 13 years short. Hopefully you don’t catch up to me. Ever. 

I personally do not care about any narratives and don’t imagine anyone wearing a jersey/sweater does either. I could be wrong. 

[thewookie1]

3 minutes ago, Nacho Libre said:

People can “buy” whatever narratives they want. There’s also reality 

Well I just thought it was a funny quirk of the predictions. 

[Nacho Libre]

46 minutes ago, bg17 said:

You are 13 years short. Hopefully you don’t catch up to me. Ever. 

I personally do not care about any narratives and don’t imagine anyone wearing a jersey/sweater does either. I could be wrong. 

They are human beings, not robots. 

You HAVE to have seen the “battle of coaches” before a big game, any sport, where in front of the media they both try to claim their team is the “underdog” and “oh the pressure is all on them.” Right? Like they do this all the time. “Oh no one said we could do it.” How often have you heard even teams like the chiefs say that? They feed on that stuff. It’s fuel for them. Tale as old as time. Obviously these coaches and players and what have you feel it matters or why else would they be making a point of mentioning it so frequently? 

my argument that it matters is simply that those involved in the game frequently allude to it mattering, outright 

Edited May 3 by Nacho Libre