Now, do we believe?!

[Doohickie]

The Sabres have 6 games in February.

4 of them are @ FLA and @ TBL on away back-to-backs.

• 2/2:  @ FLA
• 2/3:  @ TBL
• 2/27:  @ FLA
• 2/28:  @ TBL

Go home NHL scheduler; you're drunk.

However:  If the Sabres sweep or take 3 of those 4, THEN I will believe.

[mjd1001]

Just some food for thought:

Sabres this year:  26.6 scoring chances per game for, 28.9 scoring chances per game allowed (they are a -2.3)

Last year:  27.1 scoring chances for per game, 29.2 allowed (-2.1)

The 'top' 4 teams in the league in the same category:

Colorado: 34.3 scoring chances for per game, 26.5 allowed (+7.8)

Tampa: 30.7 scoring chances for per game, 25.4 allowed (+5.3)

Carolina:  34.7 scoring chances for per game, 25.3 allowed (+9.4)

Dallas:  27.4 scoring chances for per game, 27.6 allowed (-0.2)

In terms of generating shots, scoring chances and high danger chances, they are very close to the team they were last year, and not really in the same category as the other top teams in the league this year.  Yes, a lot of things are different this year, but its primarily the goaltending.

This year:  .898 save percentage, .814 save percentage on high danger shots. (on 2400 shots per year, that is almost 50 less goals just due to save percentage)

Last year: .878 save percentage, .768 save percentage on high danger shots.

I'm enjoying the wins, but I am not convinced yet this is sustainable.  With better goaltending, it SHOULD be sustainable at a greater than .500 pace (which should get them to the playoffs the rest of the way), but I'm still thinking with even the slightest, smallest drop-off in goaltending performance, they are more likely to play at best .550 hockey the rest of the way (getting them to 98-99 points) rather than .650+ hockey which is what a top-5 team in the league does)

 

Edited January 31 by mjd1001

[Sidc3000]

I’m enjoying it so far but I’m tempering my optimism

[Sidc3000]

14 hours ago, mjd1001 said:

Just some food for thought:

Sabres this year:  26.6 scoring chances per game for, 28.9 scoring chances per game allowed (they are a -2.3)

Last year:  27.1 scoring chances for per game, 29.2 allowed (-2.1)

The 'top' 4 teams in the league in the same category:

Colorado: 34.3 scoring chances for per game, 26.5 allowed (+7.8)

Tampa: 30.7 scoring chances for per game, 25.4 allowed (+5.3)

Carolina:  34.7 scoring chances for per game, 25.3 allowed (+9.4)

Dallas:  27.4 scoring chances for per game, 27.6 allowed (-0.2)

In terms of generating shots, scoring chances and high danger chances, they are very close to the team they were last year, and not really in the same category as the other top teams in the league this year.  Yes, a lot of things are different this year, but its primarily the goaltending.

This year:  .898 save percentage, .814 save percentage on high danger shots. (on 2400 shots per year, that is almost 50 less goals just due to save percentage)

Last year: .878 save percentage, .768 save percentage on high danger shots.

I'm enjoying the wins, but I am not convinced yet this is sustainable.  With better goaltending, it SHOULD be sustainable at a greater than .500 pace (which should get them to the playoffs the rest of the way), but I'm still thinking with even the slightest, smallest drop-off in goaltending performance, they are more likely to play at best .550 hockey the rest of the way (getting them to 98-99 points) rather than .650+ hockey which is what a top-5 team in the league does)

 

Man of reason right there. Not much has changed except for goaltending. 

[Ogelthorpe]

BIG 3 games before break. Starting to get a little nervous. This week could make or break hopes. 

[Carmel Corn]

15 hours ago, Doohickie said:

The Sabres have 6 games in February.

4 of them are @ FLA and @ TBL on away back-to-backs.

• 2/2:  @ FLA
• 2/3:  @ TBL
• 2/27:  @ FLA
• 2/28:  @ TBL

Go home NHL scheduler; you're drunk.

However:  If the Sabres sweep or take 3 of those 4, THEN I will believe.

Needless to say that this is a huge test for the team and for Jarmo to respond accordingly.  If they do win 3 of 4 or better, your team is in a great place.  If they only win 1 or even none, then he can’t stand pat at the trade deadline.

[Believer]

If Jarmo is serious about ending the playoff drought this year, he needs to make a couple moves.

Sabres need a D and a top line C.

We have the assets to make trades.

Let’s see if he can produce.

[Nacho Libre]

 

[K-9]

1 hour ago, Believer said:

If Jarmo is serious about ending the playoff drought this year, he needs to make a couple moves.

Sabres need a D and a top line C.

We have the assets to make trades.

Let’s see if he can produce.

A good 3rd pair D man is doable, but there is no way we are getting a top line C in a trade. We need Norris to return and stay healthy (I know, I know). 

[Carmel Corn]

1 hour ago, K-9 said:

A good 3rd pair D man is doable, but there is no way we are getting a top line C in a trade. We need Norris to return and stay healthy (I know, I know). 

Too bad Norris isn’t Lee Majors….”We can rebuild him.  We have the technology.  We can make him better than he was.  Bigger, stronger, faster….”

[EM88]

4 hours ago, Nacho Libre said:

 

 

20 hours ago, mjd1001 said:

Just some food for thought:

Sabres this year:  26.6 scoring chances per game for, 28.9 scoring chances per game allowed (they are a -2.3)

Last year:  27.1 scoring chances for per game, 29.2 allowed (-2.1)

The 'top' 4 teams in the league in the same category:

Colorado: 34.3 scoring chances for per game, 26.5 allowed (+7.8)

Tampa: 30.7 scoring chances for per game, 25.4 allowed (+5.3)

Carolina:  34.7 scoring chances for per game, 25.3 allowed (+9.4)

Dallas:  27.4 scoring chances for per game, 27.6 allowed (-0.2)

In terms of generating shots, scoring chances and high danger chances, they are very close to the team they were last year, and not really in the same category as the other top teams in the league this year.  Yes, a lot of things are different this year, but its primarily the goaltending.

This year:  .898 save percentage, .814 save percentage on high danger shots. (on 2400 shots per year, that is almost 50 less goals just due to save percentage)

Last year: .878 save percentage, .768 save percentage on high danger shots.

I'm enjoying the wins, but I am not convinced yet this is sustainable.  With better goaltending, it SHOULD be sustainable at a greater than .500 pace (which should get them to the playoffs the rest of the way), but I'm still thinking with even the slightest, smallest drop-off in goaltending performance, they are more likely to play at best .550 hockey the rest of the way (getting them to 98-99 points) rather than .650+ hockey which is what a top-5 team in the league does)

 

I see some value and truth in the above numbers.

I believe the Sabres have a very good chance of making the playoffs this year. I also believe that it is not a sure thing.

I believe the recent winning trend has a lot to due with above average goaltending and above average shooting recently as others have stated.  I believe those 2 things are possible, even likely,  to revert close to the mean and may/will lead to some more frequent losses for the team.

I am also of the belief that the players on this team lead to getting less chances but converting on a greater percentage of them. So the numbers above that relate to the offensive side of things I think can stay a bit above norm and aren't likely to revert to the mean as much.

There is a cautionary tale in these numbers that should not be ignored.  They do not mean the team is destined to become a .500 or worse team imminently.  But they do mean to me the team has less of a margin for error in the difference between wins and losses than the last few weeks had led many of us to think.

Since December 9, the team has played .820 hockey.  Unless they can improve on the numbers in the posts above, I think the rest of the season is more likely to be .540-.560  hockey than it is anything above .650 hockey, let alone .820.

[mjd1001]

So last night's game is a good example, maybe the last week... Is a good example of why many of us think it's not Good to get too high on this team when they're winning, but not too low when they're losing. Things can change quickly.

[French Collection]

34 minutes ago, mjd1001 said:

So last night's game is a good example, maybe the last week... Is a good example of why many of us think it's not Good to get too high on this team when they're winning, but not too low when they're losing. Things can change quickly.

Not quite the 24 hour rule, but I waited until I slept on it before posting. I was pi$$ed last night and probably would have gone too far in the negative direction.

Their break is well deserved after a great run. They need to rest and come back hungry because they looked like a well fed team last night.

Jarmo needs to do something to shake things up a bit and to put a little more direction into the rest of the season. We all saw how Bryson messed up and there needs to be upgrade(s) to the D corps.

I know Quinn has been producing some points but I still can’t stand watching him fall down or lose the puck whenever he is on the wall. When Norris and Benson come back he may not have a spot in the top 9 and he is not a 4th liner.

[Night Train]

Losing 3 of the last 4 brings reality back into play. 

Get healthy. 

[Archie Lee]

Since the 10 game winning streak ended, the Sabres are 11-5-2.  Still very, very good. However, per MoneyPuck the Sabres had the edge in play, MoneyPuck's Deserve to Win O'Meter, in only 4 of 18 games since the streak ended. There are some flaws in the MoneyPuck methodology I think, but regardless, we haven't been dominating the opposition in a manner that matches the win/loss record. 

Also per MoneyPuck, the Sabres are 5th in the league in PDO (Save% + Shooting%).  The top 3 teams in the league in PDO are Tampa, Dallas, and Colorado, which aligns with what we generally think those teams are (the league's elite).  4th is Boston and then us.  Like Boston, I think there is a case that we have been on a bit of an unsustainable PDO heater (certainly since the streak ended). This is nothing to apologize for, and probably makes up for us having some bad luck through the first 2 months of the season.  

I would be foolish not to give credit to Ruff, and the assistants, for the team's improved record. The team is playing better.  Period.  But, while the structure, particularly late in games, has improved, I still don't think we play with the sort of clearly definable and repeatable structure that the league's best coached teams play with. We seem content to trade chances too often for my personal taste. It has been working, but I'm not sure it is the best long-term strategy.

What I do know is that the streak is over.  This break is pretty close to being long enough that we can say a new season starts on Feb 25th.  I'll happily take that we are in a playoff spot with a 5 point cushion. We will need to earn a playoff spot from here though.     

[Ogelthorpe]

And so it begins!

[Nacho Libre]

3 hours ago, Archie Lee said:

Since the 10 game winning streak ended, the Sabres are 11-5-2.  Still very, very good. However, per MoneyPuck the Sabres had the edge in play, MoneyPuck's Deserve to Win O'Meter, in only 4 of 18 games since the streak ended. There are some flaws in the MoneyPuck methodology I think, but regardless, we haven't been dominating the opposition in a manner that matches the win/loss record. 

Also per MoneyPuck, the Sabres are 5th in the league in PDO (Save% + Shooting%).  The top 3 teams in the league in PDO are Tampa, Dallas, and Colorado, which aligns with what we generally think those teams are (the league's elite).  4th is Boston and then us.  Like Boston, I think there is a case that we have been on a bit of an unsustainable PDO heater (certainly since the streak ended). This is nothing to apologize for, and probably makes up for us having some bad luck through the first 2 months of the season.  

I would be foolish not to give credit to Ruff, and the assistants, for the team's improved record. The team is playing better.  Period.  But, while the structure, particularly late in games, has improved, I still don't think we play with the sort of clearly definable and repeatable structure that the league's best coached teams play with. We seem content to trade chances too often for my personal taste. It has been working, but I'm not sure it is the best long-term strategy.

What I do know is that the streak is over.  This break is pretty close to being long enough that we can say a new season starts on Feb 25th.  I'll happily take that we are in a playoff spot with a 5 point cushion. We will need to earn a playoff spot from here though.     

Good post

i think it’s reasonably concerning relative to anyone who has designs on winning a round(s), but more saliently still the mark of a team finding a way to scrape wins and more importantly bank wins and therefore not too too concerning re: the goal of just making the playoffs, if that’s still where your goal posts are 

for me, they are still there and will remain so. Just get in. Rest is gravy