Three headed goalie monster coming to an end?

[pi2000]

League wide rankings since Nov 1st for goalies who have played at least 185 mins (66 goalies)....

UPL (416 min)
Sv% 21st
GAA 18th
HighDanger SV% 36th
MediumDanger SV% 15th
LowDanger SV% 13th
Goals Saved Above Expected/60 21st

Ellis (303 min)
Sv% 39th
GAA 52nd
High Danger SV% 58th
MediumDanger SV% 48th
LowDanger SV% 31st
Goals Saved Above Expected/60 39th

Lyon (185 min)
Sv% 59th
GAA 64th
High Danger SV% 50th
MediumDanger SV% 28th
LowDanger SV% 61st
Goals Saved Above Expected/60 61st

UPL has separated himself, he should be the clear #1 moving forward. 

A decision needs to be made on the backup. 

[DarthEbriate]

Or send down Östlund.

Or waive Dunne or Kozak.

They do need a 7th defenseman for the road.

[oddoublee]

Is it that clear? Seems to me UPL faces far less shots per 60 which could indicate many things....one of which they place a less aggressive system in front of him. IDK for certain.

Lyon, outside his last 3 starts had a far better quality start rate than either of them. 

We have 3 good backup goalies...none of which have truly separated themselves as the best backup....UNLESS you factor in money....making UPL possibly the worst option. 

[mjd1001]

13 minutes ago, pi2000 said:

League wide rankings since Nov 1st for goalies who have played at least 185 mins (66 goalies)....

UPL (416 min)
Sv% 21st
GAA 18th
HighDanger SV% 36th
MediumDanger SV% 15th
LowDanger SV% 13th
Goals Saved Above Expected/60 21st

Ellis (303 min)
Sv% 39th
GAA 52nd
High Danger SV% 58th
MediumDanger SV% 48th
LowDanger SV% 31st
Goals Saved Above Expected/60 39th

Lyon (185 min)
Sv% 59th
GAA 64th
High Danger SV% 50th
MediumDanger SV% 28th
LowDanger SV% 61st
Goals Saved Above Expected/60 61st

UPL has separated himself, he should be the clear #1 moving forward. 

A decision needs to be made on the backup. 

After how bad he was last year. I need a MUCH larger sample size of good play from UPL before I make the decision he has 'separated' himself from everyone else and is the clear #1.

Especially because the numbers Ellis put up are mostly the result of one really bad game.... And the sample chosen just happens to not have a bad game by UPL.... Although he has a lot of them in the past year and is perfectly capable of continuing to have them.

[PromoTheRobot]

How did UPL look so good yesterday? Maybe it's because the rest of the Sabres didn't give the Jets any room to operate? Only one breakaway allowed. No stupid turnovers. If you don't need your goalie to stand on his head if the rest of the team is doing their job. Last night was a classic example.

[JohnC]

2 minutes ago, PromoTheRobot said:

How did UPL look so good yesterday? Maybe it's because the rest of the Sabres didn't give the Jets any room to operate? Only one breakaway allowed. No stupid turnovers. If you don't need your goalie to stand on his head if the rest of the team is doing their job. Last night was a classic example.

I want to see UPL based on his play establish himself. A decision should soon be made on which two of the goalies will be retained. However, I'm not going to be too disturbed when one of them is sent somewhere else.  The goalie I will be watching to see how he reacts is Levi. 

[pi2000]

16 minutes ago, mjd1001 said:

After how bad he was last year. I need a MUCH larger sample size of good play from UPL before I make the decision he has 'separated' himself from everyone else and is the clear #1.

Especially because the numbers Ellis put up are mostly the result of one really bad game.... And the sample chosen just happens to not have a bad game by UPL.... Although he has a lot of them in the past year and is perfectly capable of continuing to have them.

Based on recent play, I don't see how you can justify starting Ellis or Lyon over UPL at this point.     

That said, UPL's numbers at home are far better than on the road.   

It feels like this road trip is UPL's chance (his last?) to finally establish himself.   

[matter2003]

2 minutes ago, pi2000 said:

Based on recent play, I don't see how you can justify starting Ellis or Lyon over UPL at this point.     

That said, UPL's numbers at home are far better than on the road.   

It feels like this road trip is UPL's chance (his last?) to finally establish himself.   

UPL should stand for "U Play to Lose"

[mjd1001]

Just now, pi2000 said:

Based on recent play, I don't see how you can justify starting Ellis or Lyon over UPL at this point.     

That said, UPL's numbers at home are far better than on the road.   

It feels like this road trip is UPL's chance (his last?) to finally establish himself.   

Idle base it just then recent play. There is too much 'noise' how are your Thanksgiving when evaluating goalies on a handful of games.

They are who they are over the medium so long-term. I'm going to give more leeway to a talented young guy who is still developing.

I'm not impressed all that much with UPL. He's done what he was supposed to do, no more.

Give me a few games where he is the reason they win....and I'll back him a bit more. Haven't seen that yet.

[LGR4GM]

5 minutes ago, pi2000 said:

Based on recent play, I don't see how you can justify starting Ellis or Lyon over UPL at this point.     

That said, UPL's numbers at home are far better than on the road.   

It feels like this road trip is UPL's chance (his last?) to finally establish himself.   

Sounds like they are starting Ellis against Philly.

[JohnC]

22 minutes ago, PromoTheRobot said:

How did UPL look so good yesterday? Maybe it's because the rest of the Sabres didn't give the Jets any room to operate? Only one breakaway allowed. No stupid turnovers. If you don't need your goalie to stand on his head if the rest of the team is doing their job. Last night was a classic example.

You make a keen observation that not only are the defensemen player better defense but so are the forwards. The improvement in team defensive play can be attributed as much to the more responsible two-way play of the forwards. With respect to the blueline unit, I marvel at the exceptional and consistent play of Samuelsson. From strictly a defensive standpoint, I would say that he has been our best defenseman. His play is better than I could ever have imagined coming into the season. Another example of the improved attention to more responsible two-way play is the play of Quinn. He's far from being a stout defender, but you can see that he is giving an effort to be better in the defensive zone. I credit his experienced linemates for influencing his more mature play. I would even go as far to say that  putting Quinn on a line with Zucker and McCleod was one of Ruff's best coaching decisions this season.  

[Eleven]

I'd rather keep Ellis and ship one of Lyon or UPL.  I think an Ellis/Levi situation might be good in the future.

[krakensabr56390]

16 minutes ago, Eleven said:

I'd rather keep Ellis and ship one of Lyon or UPL.  I think an Ellis/Levi situation might be good in the future.

Ellis seems to make a big save ur two all the time to keep a take in reach - upl is often giving up a stinker even if playing well. That would be a big decision factor for me 

[msw2112]

From what I've seen, Ellis has the most upside.  He had one bad game which has skewed his numbers in the wrong direction, but he has otherwise played quite well, and the entire team was a disaster in that one game.  It's possible that his back injury is a factor in him playing less than he otherwise would be playing, as Lindy alluded to in an interview.  Lyon was terrific to start the season, but he's come back down to earth.  UPL seems to be the same UPL that we know.  I have not seen him steal a game or be THE difference in a game this season.  He gives up the goals he's supposed to give up, and on occasion a goal that he shouldn't, which is often a backbreaker for the team.  Ellis gives up the goals he's supposed to give up, but also makes a couple key stops a game that maybe he's not expected to (like stopping multiple breakaways against Detroit).  I'd like to see more of that upside.  A big save in a key moment can really inspire a team, whereas letting in a bad goal can deflate a team.

Edited 22 minutes ago by msw2112

[Porous Five Hole]

1 hour ago, LGR4GM said:

Sounds like they are starting Ellis against Philly.

That’s what I would do.  I’m not sure why Pi used Nov 1 for his analysis since both UPL & Ellis had their first starts of the season a week prior. Taking out that week prior conveniently wipes out a UPL loss in Toronto and Ellis’s first win against Detroit. 

Just use the season:

UPL has seven starts, 4-3-1, 178 saves and .899%
Ellis has six starts, 4-2-0, 168 saves and .898%

So I disagree with the OP’s assertion that it’s clearly UPL’s crease.  However, it is best case scenario for the Sabres that UPL figures it out (my opinion is he won’t). 
 

Ellis is an unknown commodity and I want to find out more. He should continue to get starts as frequently as UPL does. 

[kas23]

Let’s not forget, UPL fighting for his job > UPL who is named starter. 

[Porous Five Hole]

Something I find interesting.  From Elliotte Friedman on Friday:

“Luukkonen has asked to play more.”

“You know, Luukkonen wanted to play more.”

While I don’t have a problem with a guy wanting the crease, it’s weird to me that Friedman reported this while talking about the  Sabres. Why is the player’s agent squawking to the media about playing time? What’s the motive?

It’s just weird to me.