Big Guava Posted 12 hours ago Report Posted 12 hours ago (edited) Sabres team save percentage is currently .908 and it's the 8th best in the NHL right now. Not sure what's going on, but goaltending league wide is brutal this year. Only 14 teams are above .900 and 10 are below .890 with the Blues at an unfathomable .840 Maybe they should trade for Levi...his .872 last year would look great over there. In comparison, last year the Sabres were 30th at .888 Edited 12 hours ago by Big Guava 1 Quote
tom webster Posted 5 hours ago Report Posted 5 hours ago (edited) 7 hours ago, Big Guava said: Sabres team save percentage is currently .908 and it's the 8th best in the NHL right now. Not sure what's going on, but goaltending league wide is brutal this year. Only 14 teams are above .900 and 10 are below .890 with the Blues at an unfathomable .840 Maybe they should trade for Levi...his .872 last year would look great over there. In comparison, last year the Sabres were 30th at .888 Not sure what you are talking about. Last year only ten teams finished above .900 and Buffalo finished 31st st .879 ahead of only the Flyers. Edited 5 hours ago by tom webster Quote
Jorcus Posted 3 hours ago Report Posted 3 hours ago 8 hours ago, Big Guava said: Sabres team save percentage is currently .908 and it's the 8th best in the NHL right now. Not sure what's going on, but goaltending league wide is brutal this year. Only 14 teams are above .900 and 10 are below .890 with the Blues at an unfathomable .840 Maybe they should trade for Levi...his .872 last year would look great over there. In comparison, last year the Sabres were 30th at .888 I posted this in another thread but this is a continuation of a trend that has been going on for a number of years. I took the save percentage of .910 which used to be what you could expect out of almost any decent starting goalie. The number of goal tenders who have bested this number has declined drastically over a fairly short amount of time. Year ending number of goalies above .910 save percentage. AHL numbers 25 10 16 24 16 21 23 17 19 22 26 18 21 25 9 20 30 17 19 29 17 18 31 26 I could go back further but the number seems to hoover around that 30 mark. So what is causing this. Are goaltenders worse? Are shooters better? Has the NHL asked the refs to change the way they call the game? I was just curious so I put in the AHL numbers. The 9 was the covid year so you can pretty much chuck that one. Going back a few more years in the AHL it was in the low 20's. I lean toward the shooters getting better causing this trend but not really certain about that would have to dig up some more stats. 1 Quote
Big Guava Posted 3 hours ago Author Report Posted 3 hours ago 4 minutes ago, Jorcus said: I posted this in another thread but this is a continuation of a trend that has been going on for a number of years. I took the save percentage of .910 which used to be what you could expect out of almost any decent starting goalie. The number of goal tenders who have bested this number has declined drastically over a fairly short amount of time. Year ending number of goalies above .910 save percentage. AHL numbers 25 10 16 24 16 21 23 17 19 22 26 18 21 25 9 20 30 17 19 29 17 18 31 26 I could go back further but the number seems to hoover around that 30 mark. So what is causing this. Are goaltenders worse? Are shooters better? Has the NHL asked the refs to change the way they call the game? I was just curious so I put in the AHL numbers. The 9 was the covid year so you can pretty much chuck that one. Going back a few more years in the AHL it was in the low 20's. I lean toward the shooters getting better causing this trend but not really certain about that would have to dig up some more stats. Is the shooting percentage higher league wide? If the shooters were getting better it would show up there somehow. Quote
LGR4GM Posted 3 hours ago Report Posted 3 hours ago Goalies are worse because analytics and coaches figured out more successful ways to generate good shots. Cross ice passing, passes from behind the net, point shots that are meant for deflection, even screening. I think it's an evolution of how offense works and goalies can only do so much. That's my opinion. 2 Quote
tom webster Posted 3 hours ago Report Posted 3 hours ago 3 minutes ago, LGR4GM said: Goalies are worse because analytics and coaches figured out more successful ways to generate good shots. Cross ice passing, passes from behind the net, point shots that are meant for deflection, even screening. I think it's an evolution of how offense works and goalies can only do so much. That's my opinion. I think this is at least partly correct. Also, as I stated up thread, this year is significantly better than last year, although a very small sample size. Quote
LGR4GM Posted 3 hours ago Report Posted 3 hours ago Pre-shot movement is the next analytics frontier. Idk how goalies will adapt. Quote
DarthEbriate Posted 3 hours ago Report Posted 3 hours ago 1 hour ago, tom webster said: Not sure what you are talking about. Last year only ten teams finished above .900 and Buffalo finished 31st st .879 ahead of only the Flyers. Last year and this season (so far) have been abnormally low for team save percentages. We're still early in 25-26 so there's likely some clutter and teams will tighten up a bit as the season goes on, but it's notable. Team percentages also include empty net goals, so you could be seeing a bit more "risk + screw it, we're down 2 with 5 minutes left, let's pull the goalie early" goals than in previous seasons. Here are team save percentages going back a bit: 2025 .890 2024 .893 2023 .898 2022 .899 2021 .902 2020 .903 2019 .905 2018 .905 2017 .908 2016 .910 2015 .910 3 on 3 OT in effect 2014 .911 And you go back to the dead puck era thinking it'll be monstrously higher... No, not really. (Makes you appreciate Hasek all the more.) 2004 .908 2003 .906 2002 .905 2001 .901 2000 .902 1999 .906 As to why. I don't think it's the goaltenders themselves: they are positionally sound, make spectacular saves, etc. There are subpar goalies, yes. But we've seen much better shot selection in recent years. Teams aren't just shooting from the blue line and hoping, they're much more patient with the puck. Power plays have had some abnormally high success rates (three teams had a 28+ PP% last year and the league average was over 21% -- which is rising in general in recent years). Since it was introduced 3 on 3 overtimes have changed from "skate and shoot" to possess and exit the zone, but maintain possession at all costs -- working for the high danger shot. (Luukkonen was great last night and made 5 saves, but prior to that this season the Sabres had given up 3 goals on 5 shots to rock a .400 sv%). I think in general it's the offensive coaches putting analytics and video to good effect. 3 1 Quote
tom webster Posted 3 hours ago Report Posted 3 hours ago 9 minutes ago, DarthEbriate said: Last year and this season (so far) have been abnormally low for team save percentages. We're still early in 25-26 so there's likely some clutter and teams will tighten up a bit as the season goes on, but it's notable. Team percentages also include empty net goals, so you could be seeing a bit more "risk + screw it, we're down 2 with 5 minutes left, let's pull the goalie early" goals than in previous seasons. Here are team save percentages going back a bit: 2025 .890 2024 .893 2023 .898 2022 .899 2021 .902 2020 .903 2019 .905 2018 .905 2017 .908 2016 .910 2015 .910 3 on 3 OT in effect 2014 .911 And you go back to the dead puck era thinking it'll be monstrously higher... No, not really. (Makes you appreciate Hasek all the more.) 2004 .908 2003 .906 2002 .905 2001 .901 2000 .902 1999 .906 As to why. I don't think it's the goaltenders themselves: they are positionally sound, make spectacular saves, etc. There are subpar goalies, yes. But we've seen much better shot selection in recent years. Teams aren't just shooting from the blue line and hoping, they're much more patient with the puck. Power plays have had some abnormally high success rates (three teams had a 28+ PP% last year and the league average was over 21% -- which is rising in general in recent years). Since it was introduced 3 on 3 overtimes have changed from "skate and shoot" to possess and exit the zone, but maintain possession at all costs -- working for the high danger shot. (Luukkonen was great last night and made 5 saves, but prior to that this season the Sabres had given up 3 goals on 5 shots to rock a .400 sv%). I think in general it's the offensive coaches putting analytics and video to good effect. I didn’t mean to imply that the drop in save percentage wasn’t accurate, just that it didn’t start this year. Access to new data has changed a lot of what has always been believed about all sports. Teams are adapting and changing the way games are played. It’s actually quite fascinating. 1 Quote
matter2003 Posted 3 hours ago Report Posted 3 hours ago (edited) 38 minutes ago, LGR4GM said: Goalies are worse because analytics and coaches figured out more successful ways to generate good shots. Cross ice passing, passes from behind the net, point shots that are meant for deflection, even screening. I think it's an evolution of how offense works and goalies can only do so much. That's my opinion. You are actually right...downloaded the data from Moneypuck and there is a very strong correlation between save percentage dropping and high danger chances increasing. | Season | Save % | Goals/Game | Shots/Game | xG/Shot | High-Danger Shots/Game | Avg GSAx (per 60) | | :------- | :----: | :--------: | :--------: | :-----: | :--------------------: | :---------------: | | 2010-11 | 0.913 | 5.48 | 30.8 | 0.088 | 7.9 | +0.12 | | 2011-12 | 0.914 | 5.32 | 30.7 | 0.087 | 7.8 | +0.15 | | 2012-13 | 0.912 | 5.44 | 30.1 | 0.089 | 8.0 | +0.10 | | 2013-14 | 0.914 | 5.46 | 30.6 | 0.089 | 8.1 | +0.13 | | 2014-15 | 0.915 | 5.46 | 30.4 | 0.089 | 8.2 | +0.14 | | 2015-16 | 0.915 | 5.42 | 30.2 | 0.089 | 8.3 | +0.11 | | 2016-17 | 0.913 | 5.53 | 30.3 | 0.090 | 8.5 | +0.09 | | 2017-18 | 0.912 | 5.94 | 31.8 | 0.091 | 8.7 | +0.06 | | 2018-19 | 0.910 | 6.02 | 31.5 | 0.092 | 8.8 | +0.04 | | 2019-20 | 0.910 | 6.04 | 31.3 | 0.092 | 8.9 | +0.03 | | 2020-21 | 0.907 | 6.23 | 30.7 | 0.093 | 9.0 | +0.01 | | 2021-22 | 0.904 | 6.36 | 31.1 | 0.094 | 9.2 | +0.00 | | 2022-23 | 0.904 | 6.60 | 31.9 | 0.095 | 9.4 | –0.02 | | 2023-24 | 0.903 | 6.73 | 31.6 | 0.096 | 9.5 | –0.03 | | 2024-25* | 0.900 | 6.81 | 31.8 | 0.097 | 9.6 | –0.04 | The correlation is -.91486 between Save Percentage and High Danger Shot %, meaning as high danger shots increase, save percentage drops. A perfect correlation is 1.0 or -1.0 in this case, since it's a decrease, so this is extremely strong. Essentially, this shows that 91.5% of the the variance in save percentage is caused by high danger shot quality, leaving only about 8.5% to other things. Edited 3 hours ago by matter2003 2 1 Quote
DarthEbriate Posted 3 hours ago Report Posted 3 hours ago 5 minutes ago, tom webster said: I didn’t mean to imply that the drop in save percentage wasn’t accurate, just that it didn’t start this year. Access to new data has changed a lot of what has always been believed about all sports. Teams are adapting and changing the way games are played. It’s actually quite fascinating. Yes -- my response to your initial comment was that if you only looked at last year you wouldn't see it as a big anomaly. But taken together, last year and this year have seen a really big jump beyond the existing trend. It won't compete with @matter2003's high danger data, but another thing to take into account: goalie gear restrictions. Hasek and Brodeur famously were rocking sweaters 4 sizes too big, etc. But since 2005-06 post-lockout, there have been multiple changes to goalie pad sizes and even an additional jersey regulation in 2018. Just like the other sports -- the Shield wants more offense. Quote
matter2003 Posted 3 hours ago Report Posted 3 hours ago 1 minute ago, DarthEbriate said: Yes -- my response to your initial comment was that if you only looked at last year you wouldn't see it as a big anomaly. But taken together, last year and this year have seen a really big jump beyond the existing trend. It won't compete with @matter2003's high danger data, but another thing to take into account: goalie gear restrictions. Hasek and Brodeur famously were rocking sweaters 4 sizes too big, etc. But since 2005-06 post-lockout, there have been multiple changes to goalie pad sizes and even an additional jersey regulation in 2018. Just like the other sports -- the Shield wants more offense. That would be part of the 8.5% that falls into the "other" bucket 😉 1 Quote
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