Eastern Conference Finals, Carolina Hurricanes (2) vs. Buffalo Sabres (4)

[PASabreFan]

Though not a sexy topic, faceoffs will be huge as always. Ottawa seemed to cream us on the draw, and that alone was responsible for much of the pressure the Sens put on, especially on the power play. Neither the Sabres nor Canes were great on faceoffs during the regular season (Carolina winning 52%, the Sabres 50%) or the playoffs so far (similar numbers), but here's the wild card: Rod Brind'Amour, near the very top of the league in this category in the regular season and playoffs, at 59% and 58%, respectively. We have a good guy on the draws in Drury, who was 54% in the playoffs after winning 56% in the regular season. But Rod the Bod is another league. I suspect when you lean into a draw against that face, you are instantly distracted, nay revolted, just long enough so that Rod has the advantage. You are truly face to face with The Beast. Drury's note to self: "wear garlic."

[Taro T]

My take on this series is that it should be a doozy.

 

Both teams have excellent forwards, but Carolina will be missing Cole and could be missing Stillman. While Buffalo will likely be without Connolly (at least for a game), Carolina's entire attack could be affected without Stillman. Carolina is not as good without Cole as they were with him, toss in a possible Stillman loss, and Carolina's task becomes huge. While Carolina's top guns are slightly better than Buffalo's top, the Canes don't have as much depth at forward and definitely don't play the bottom guys as much as Buffalo plays theirs. If the series goes 6 or 7, that should give Buffalo the slight edge overall at forward. Also, who doesn't want to see Drury v Brind'amour on the draws. Those should be worth the price of admission in their own right.

 

If Kalinin isn't available, I give Carolina a very slight edge on D. With Kalinin, I give the slight edge to Buffalo.

 

Goaltending I give to Miller but Ward could end up spectacular. I gave the edge to Miller because he has been more consistent over the course of the season. Of course, Ward may be able to outperform Ryan, but I don't expect that outcome.

 

PP I give to Carolina, but PK goes to Buffalo.

 

Intangibles I see as a wash. The essentially weeklong layoff both teams are getting keeps me from seeing an edge for either here.

 

Coaching - what can I say, I'm a Sabres fan and Lindy has definitely been on this year. A VERY slight edge to Lindy.

 

If Carolina doesn't get Stillman back, the series could end up staying short. My guess is that he will play and Buffalo will win a very close 6 game series.

 

Although Carolina won the 1st 3 games against Buffalo, I had thought the Sabres played a style that gave Carolina much more trouble than it looked like on paper and there were extenuating circumstances in all 3 losses. While I didn't expect Buffalo to shut them out in the RS Finale, I thought that game was more indicative of where these 2 teams are right now. I think Buffalo has a very slight edge overall against the Canes and as long as Lindy doesn't let them get the chip off their shoulder and he doesn't let them stop hustling, I just don't see many scenarios where Carolina wins the series.

[hopeleslyobvious]

My take on this series is that it should be a doozy.

 

Both teams have excellent forwards, but Carolina will be missing Cole and could be missing Stillman. While Buffalo will likely be without Connolly (at least for a game), Carolina's entire attack could be affected without Stillman. Carolina is not as good without Cole as they were with him, toss in a possible Stillman loss, and Carolina's task becomes huge. While Carolina's top guns are slightly better than Buffalo's top, the Canes don't have as much depth at forward and definitely don't play the bottom guys as much as Buffalo plays theirs. If the series goes 6 or 7, that should give Buffalo the slight edge overall at forward. Also, who doesn't want to see Drury v Brind'amour on the draws. Those should be worth the price of admission in their own right.

 

If Kalinin isn't available, I give Carolina a very slight edge on D. With Kalinin, I give the slight edge to Buffalo.

 

Goaltending I give to Miller but Ward could end up spectacular. I gave the edge to Miller because he has been more consistent over the course of the season. Of course, Ward may be able to outperform Ryan, but I don't expect that outcome.

 

PP I give to Carolina, but PK goes to Buffalo.

 

Intangibles I see as a wash. The essentially weeklong layoff both teams are getting keeps me from seeing an edge for either here.

 

Coaching - what can I say, I'm a Sabres fan and Lindy has definitely been on this year. A VERY slight edge to Lindy.

 

If Carolina doesn't get Stillman back, the series could end up staying short. My guess is that he will play and Buffalo will win a very close 6 game series.

 

Although Carolina won the 1st 3 games against Buffalo, I had thought the Sabres played a style that gave Carolina much more trouble than it looked like on paper and there were extenuating circumstances in all 3 losses. While I didn't expect Buffalo to shut them out in the RS Finale, I thought that game was more indicative of where these 2 teams are right now. I think Buffalo has a very slight edge overall against the Canes and as long as Lindy doesn't let them get the chip off their shoulder and he doesn't let them stop hustling, I just don't see many scenarios where Carolina wins the series.

 

 

Good analysis. I disagree on one thing. I don't think the 3 losses to the Canes are indicative of how these two teams match up (for reasons I am pretty sure were mentioned above), I think the Canes were off their game towards the end of the regular season. So I honestly don't think we have really seen these two teams play when both were on top of their games. I am not going to make a prediction, because I really could see this series going either way.

[PASabreFan]

Another bit of info. that plays into the intangible category... The Canes coach, Peter Laviolette, is in the last year of his contract, and he has done little to quell the talk that he will put himself on the open market after this season. There have even been some rumors that his former team, the Islanders, have waited on naming a new GM and coach in hopes that they can haul this fish in for a second time. Those kooky Islanders. And they would probably be willing to bait the hook with a boatload of cash. So, in the end, what is Laviolette coaching for? Himself. Lindy Ruff? Is there any doubt he is coaching for Buffalo, end of story, period, exclamation point?

[BetweenThePipes00]

I don't know ... I can't see anyone who has busted his ass all season and playoffs to this point all of a sudden deciding he's NOT going to get in the shooting lane or finish his check because his coach MIGHT leave the team after the season ... Lindy has done a great job and the Sabres have bought in, of course, but at the end of the day the passion has to come from within and I doubt the Canes are thinking about Laviolette's contract status while they are out there.

[PASabreFan]

Nah, I was trying to get into Laviolette's head. Probably a silly point, but you never know. In a tight series, a lot of little things could add up. I mean, that's a lot of pressure, trying to win a Cup to score a huge contract next year. Pressure on Ruff? Of course, but it's a different kind of pressure. His job is secure. We get swept out, and he's fine. Again, I don't think he's coaching for himself right now. And it shows. The man has never been looser. I've seen him joking around and smiling more in the last month than I have in the previous eight years. He said it all as the playoffs started, when he pointed out the beautiful weather on his way to work. After his daughter got better, I think Lindy is just soaking up life. I bet his collar is a lot looser than Laviolette's!

[BetweenThePipes00]

So you think Laviolette is coaching for his job? I think he's pretty secure that he will have a job somewhere ... if he's worrying about that I don't think they come back from down 2-0 to Montreal.

[PASabreFan]

No, he's not coaching for his job. The theory is that he is coaching for a big contract next year, because he is in effect a free agent. It's already going to be a big contract, but if he takes his team to the finals, it's going to be even bigger. And if he wins it all... That's a lot of pressure. Pressure can be good, but you can also choke on it. Having said all that, it's just a theory. I don't know much about Laviolette and his situation, just what I have read.

[Cardiac Canes]

Lavi will no doubt be the Hurricanes coach next season, IMO. The canes have a rule that there are no contract talks during the season whatsoever. He knows that Rutherford will fork over the dough to keep a coach as good as Lavi around. As he will do for the players who deserve it too.

[GGM]

CBS Sportsline Preview

 

I had no idea that the goaltending of Cam Ward was superhuman...Because it must be for this analysis to make any sense.

[zow2]

Since I've come to the conclusion that my actions will not affect the outcome of a game/series I will offer this up. Buffalo will win in Five.

 

Let's face reality. Ottawa was really, really good. We beat them with a combination of skill, luck, great goaltending and timely scoring. Ottawa controlled the play in large chunks of the series especially on their ice. Carolina will not be able to control the flow of the game like Ottawa did. Buffalo will probably get more shots and scoring chances overall than the 'Canes. This will make it a much closer series to Philly than it will be to Ottawa. I'm not saying we will blow out the 'Canes because we won't. They are better than Philly...but The only way I can see them beating us 4 out of 7 is if Cam Ward just plays stellar and Miller goes in a bit of a slump. I'm not counting on that.

Getting through the Ottawa series made us that much stronger and smarter of a team.

[BetweenThePipes00]

CBS Sportsline Preview

 

I had no idea that the goaltending of Cam Ward was superhuman...Because it must be for this analysis to make any sense.

 

Both teams have won 60 of their last 93 games ... how anyone can discern much of an edge for either side at this point is beyond me.

[kevharv]

Yep...it'll be one hell of a series!! Got my tickets for game 1 today. Can't believe their still available!! Lower level right behind the player bench - I'll be in Sabres attire!!

[hopeleslyobvious]

CBS Sportsline Preview

 

I had no idea that the goaltending of Cam Ward was superhuman...Because it must be for this analysis to make any sense.

 

 

Cam Ward is putting together a great run, but I would still give an edge to Miller. A slight edge, but an edge.

[GGM]

Cam Ward is putting together a great run, but I would still give an edge to Miller. A slight edge, but an edge.

I agree, but I'd even be ok with saying it was even. To say that this is an edge for Carolina is curious. I'm taking nothing away from Ward, but Miller's been doing this all year. In years past I may have thought that the CBS guys knew something I didn't. Now I feel like they don't even watch the games.

[Spandrel]

Interesting that the article mentions one of Carolina's weaknesses as getting off to slow starts in games, yet fails to mention that Buffalo has scored first in every playoff game, but one this season as an advantage.

 

That could be a huge factor in this entire series if Buffalo continues to get out to fast starts and gets to play with the lead. I think one way to beat the Sabres is to get them down early.

[GGM]

ESPN actually writes a decent article. Yes, it's another "how 'bout that little Buffalo town" piece, but its focus is on the right guy and it's pretty well written.

 

Sabres owner Golisano savoring postseason success

 

EDIT: Not to mention that it actually seems to get all the facts right!

[Knightrider]

CBS Sportsline Preview

 

I had no idea that the goaltending of Cam Ward was superhuman...Because it must be for this analysis to make any sense.

 

 

I hope Ryan sees that preview...

[dundy249]

CBS Sportsline Preview

 

I had no idea that the goaltending of Cam Ward was superhuman...Because it must be for this analysis to make any sense.

 

 

Here is the funny thing overall the sabres have a better goals against and save percentage. Big edge to the canes!

 

 

I would say at this point goaltending is even and as for scoring I would say for the playoffs the edge goes to Buffalo..they have scored more goals?

[pkwwjd]

I just want the Sabres to win a series at home this year. I want to see the Marina go nutz.

[hopeleslyobvious]

I agree, but I'd even be ok with saying it was even. To say that this is an edge for Carolina is curious. I'm taking nothing away from Ward, but Miller's been doing this all year. In years past I may have thought that the CBS guys knew something I didn't. Now I feel like they don't even watch the games.

 

Just another thought. Miller has matured a lot since March and been able to put the bad games behind him. Or at least it looks that way.

[PASabreFan]

You can drive yourself crazy reading these previews. Here's a beaut from Scott Burnside of ESPN:

 

"Simply put, Carolina has the rare ability to get better as the game goes on and that's something the Sabres will not be able to match."

 

Funny.

[Taro T]

You can drive yourself crazy reading these previews. Here's a beaut from Scott Burnside of ESPN:

 

"Simply put, Carolina has the rare ability to get better as the game goes on and that's something the Sabres will not be able to match."

 

Funny.

That's kind of funny, because I would almost consider that an intangible in the Sabres favor. The Sabres start quickly, seem to have a slight lull in the 2nd, and return to 1st period intensity in the 3rd. (Although game 4 vs Sens was the exact opposite.)

 

The Canes (from what I have read and the bit I have seen, I haven't watched enough of their games to say so for sure) tend to start slowly and then improve as the game goes on. The problem with playing that way, especially against a team that starts fast, is that you are behind by 2 goals before you even start to find your groove.

 

IF the Canes play the "get better as the game goes on" card, the Sabres will win in short order. Unfortunately, I don't expect the Canes to stink at the beginning of the game, but I am hoping Scott is right.

[hopeleslyobvious]

That's kind of funny, because I would almost consider that an intangible in the Sabres favor. The Sabres start quickly, seem to have a slight lull in the 2nd, and return to 1st period intensity in the 3rd. (Although game 4 vs Sens was the exact opposite.)

 

The Canes (from what I have read and the bit I have seen, I haven't watched enough of their games to say so for sure) tend to start slowly and then improve as the game goes on. The problem with playing that way, especially against a team that starts fast, is that you are behind by 2 goals before you even start to find your groove.

 

IF the Canes play the "get better as the game goes on" card, the Sabres will win in short order. Unfortunately, I don't expect the Canes to stink at the beginning of the game, but I am hoping Scott is right.

 

Good point Dave. If the Canes find themselves down 2 goals, they might have to open up their game even more than usual. With the way the Sabres have been looking on odd man rushes, I can't see this as anything but an advantage for the Sabres.

[Ogie Oglethorpe]

Good point Dave. If the Canes find themselves down 2 goals, they might have to open up their game even more than usual. With the way the Sabres have been looking on odd man rushes, I can't see this as anything but an advantage for the Sabres.

 

Right you are. I think that the Sabres ability to capitalize on the opponenet's mistakes gives them the edge. It played a large role in beating Ottawa. The only game they didn't close was game 4... but had plenty of opportunities.

 

I've been waiting for it, but I think this is the breakout series for Big Al Kotalik. He's been playing hard and thy hockey gods shall reward him for it with some big, big goals!