Buffalo Bills 2025 Thread

[Porous Five Hole]

2 hours ago, Pimlach said:

I am harping on this because you and  @Porous Five Hole keep telling me that McConkey does not fit the scheme, and he does not bring what the Bills needs.  I will not buy this.  So far it looks like Beane missed on this pick.   The reality for all to see is that McConkey is bringing exactly what the Bills needed to the San Diego Chargers, and Coleman is still learning and playing an inconsistent game.  Coleman has had flashes but more often than not he is not getting the job done. 

 

Now that I spent like an hour on my other post, please allow me to turn my attention to Keon Coleman. Pretty simple for me. Keon was a bad pick. He’s shown to be slow, average at the catch point, and his reputation as a non-separator in college has proven true. Now you throw in the McDermott press conference comments, the McDermott disciplinarian benching(s), and the observed effort level on some plays, and there’s not much left to say.

Beane whiffed and I think the Bills are done with him. I expect Keon will be moved in the offseason for a 6th or 7th round pick, à la Elam from last offseason. 

[calti]

On 11/10/2025 at 12:10 PM, TheAud said:

He won the MVP with basically the same set of receivers last year. That was pretty good with an average group. 

I hear you on the play calling but the K-Gun and Kelly calling plays is really an artifact of a bygone era. 

Mack Hollins...didnt help

[Pimlach]

2 hours ago, Porous Five Hole said:

First off, this has nothing to do with Keon v Ladd for me.  I don’t care about that comparison. Mostly because their roles are different. Ladd is a slot receiver and Keon is a field or boundary receiver. I don’t think you’re considering this. It is the thesis to this whole thing for me. 
 

Of the Bills WR group, what do they not do well? The answer is there is no one on the outside who is a deep threat. Most of the deep balls that Josh has thrown are 1) after a scramble extending the play, or 2) a “50/50” ball to Keon. I quote 50/50 because Keon does not catch half of them.  
 

You said Palmer & Samual can do this. They cannot consistently do this.
While Palmer’s average depth of target is 15 yards (which is very good), he’s averaging two receptions a game. He’s averaging 39 yards a game (stats are from actual games played and ignoring the games he’s missed). And now he’s hurt. It’s not cutting it.

Samuel’s average depth of target is 4.9 yards. He has no business on the outside or deep.  
 

Back to scheme and role for me.  Ladd McConkey doesn't solve this team's biggest issue which is the Bills don't threaten deep and outside. Just because he has good stats doesn’t mean he’s what the Bills actually need.  If Khalil Shakir was the biggest problem in the WR room, then I would have agreed with you.  But he’s not. 

Ladd lined up in the slot 2/3 of the time in 2024. Everything I can tell is this has not changed much.

The scheme fact I need to reiterate is because the Bills have nothing deep and outside, opposing defenses compress the field against Buffalo both vertically and horizontally. The field to defend shrinks. And we are a lot easier to defend because of it. Drop Ladd on the Bills roster right now and he’s running routes directly into the strength of the scheme of opposing defenses/double coverage.

You told me to stop overthinking it. “He gets open” is true and McConkey would be an upgrade over Shakir, but that’s who he would replace. Not Keon. So my conclusion is while McConkey’s average depth of target is double Shakir’s, it still doesn’t fix the Bills offensive problems. Maybe Ladd develops into a Justin Jefferson over time and sheds the slot. But he’s not doing that yet.  
 

BTW:

Ladd: 51 receptions for 631 yards, averaging 12 yards a play, 4 TDs in 10 games. 
Shakir: 45 receptions for 457 yards, averaging 10 yards a play, 3 TDs in 9 games. 

Thanks for finally providing some solid comments, rather than the dismissive responses I expect more detailed discussion from someone that answers with such confidence.  

I get the slot receiver thought on McConkey at the time of the draft.   McConkey projected as a slot receiver but he also plays outside and he did so very successfully at Georgia.  SD plays him at both, they want him on the field because he is making plays for them.    I would not expect me or you to know these details at draft time, but I do expect Beane to know this.  

The year prior to drafting Coleman, Beane used a #1 pick on a TE, and this was right after he paid Knox a big contract worthy of a #1 TE.  But he can't have two guys that can play slot?  I understand the thought on TEs formation.  

As for Samuel and Palmer - so far both are looking like budget bin performers that cost us way too much money - about $20M/year combined on the cap.  Both can go deep, maybe not much of a threat, but if all you are doing is clearing space for Kincaid and Shakir underneath they are fast enough to go deep.  That seems to sum up the Bills passing offense.  The targets go to Kincaid, Shakir and a few desperation throws to Coleman who is usually well covered.  

I think the biggest problem with the Bills offense right now is the output from the WRs.  Is it the WR talent, the QB, the OL, coaching/execution, or the play calling?  

Bottom line is they have not been able to come close to replacing Diggs using either free agency, trades, or the draft and it really shows.  

Maybe Coleman will bloom and make me wrong about him someday, but for what we need to win now he was a risky choice.  

 

Edited 2 hours ago by Pimlach

[Taro T]

Don't fully get why McConkey wouldn't have been a fit for the Bills just because he was primarily a slot receiver for the Bulldogs.  Andre Reed lined up pretty all the time in the slot and absolutely was Kelly's favorite weapon and got downfield.

If they had McConkey and he "had" to play the slot, couldn't Shakir have lined up on the outside some?

And realize the big problem is they don't have a true #1 &/or a field stretcher.  But Samuel is fast and so is Moore; run them far down the sideline and force a DB to run with them.  Swap them out every couple of plays to keep them fresh and wearing down the DB covering them.  And if you do that, then Shakir, Kincaid, Cook, Palmer (should he ever get back in the lineup), Coleman/McConkey ALL have more space to work with.

[Demoted]

So many posts about a guy who is not on this team and never will be.

[Porous Five Hole]

23 minutes ago, Taro T said:

Don't fully get why McConkey wouldn't have been a fit for the Bills just because he was primarily a slot receiver for the Bulldogs.  Andre Reed lined up pretty all the time in the slot and absolutely was Kelly's favorite weapon and got downfield.

If they had McConkey and he "had" to play the slot, couldn't Shakir have lined up on the outside some?

And realize the big problem is they don't have a true #1 &/or a field stretcher.  But Samuel is fast and so is Moore; run them far down the sideline and force a DB to run with them.  Swap them out every couple of plays to keep them fresh and wearing down the DB covering them.  And if you do that, then Shakir, Kincaid, Cook, Palmer (should he ever get back in the lineup), Coleman/McConkey ALL have more space to work with.

All due respect to Shakir, he’s not a boundary receiver. He’s a lot more Cole Beasley than he is Justin Jefferson. To your suggestion to just run guys deep down the field, that only creates space if defenses have to defend it with MORE than man coverage. The rotation to keep them fresh isn’t relevant. 

As I said before, because the Bills have nothing deep and outside, opposing defenses compress the field against Buffalo both vertically and horizontally. This is why Shakir and Kincaid are having pedestrian seasons…they are drawing extra defenders (or in the case of the Miami game, hi lo zone).  Then, throw in the following tendencies the Bills offense has into the mix, and it is easier to see why they’re having less success lately:

1. The Bills first down run rate is higher than 30 other NFL offenses. Sure, Cook is good, but talk about keeping your Ferrari (Josh Allen) in the garage.
 

2. Tipping your hand with scheme and play calling. Did you know the Bills pass 80% of the time from shotgun formation and run more than 80% from under center?  Sure, you usually pass from shotgun formation, but the league knows the Bills extreme tendencies and are guessing correctly 80% of the time. That’s on the OC. 
 

3. Tipping your hand with personnel. The Bills pass the ball about 80% of the time that Kincaid is on the field. It is a lot easier to defend the Bills with ideal personnel when the opposing D knows the play type and can respond with the correct personnel package. 
 

I think the Bills will mix up play calling and can still score 30 because Josh is that good.  But everything is much harder when defenses are able to minimize the field because our outside receivers may be the worst in the NFL.