Mock draft time

[dudacek]

18 minutes ago, French Collection said:

Here’s another top 16 mock draft from the Hockey Writers’ Logan Horn.

He has the Sabres taking Wood.

https://thehockeywriters.com/2023-nhl-mock-draft-lottery/

The Sporting News’ Bryan Murphy has the Sabres taking Wood as well. This mock has a top 32.

https://www.sportingnews.com/us/nhl/news/nhl-mock-draft-2023-post-lottery-blackhawks-connor-bedard/ahlnbsgeq8kvbzk8kt5ykwv5

I think the Sabres are taking Wood as well, if he's there.

The numbers and the trajectory pop, he appears to be a hockey nerd, and I think they will have intel pointing to a focus and competitiveness that doesn't necessarily show up all the time in his play style (think Owen Power).

[Crusader1969]

3 hours ago, tom webster said:

Oh my god, not the salary cap thing again. They aren’t going to acquire an $11M defenseman but they could afford it if they wanted to.

yes, next year but have you looked at 24/25?  there is no way they could afford another $11 million contact 

You keep saying you will show the math but never do.  

If you get Dahlin and Power on Team Friendly deals of $9,000,000 and $6,000,000 respectively, then at MAX you can afford to spend on another Dman is $7.000,000. That was the Contact of Jovanovski 10 years ago, that would be at least equivalent to $10 million today

Unless you basically want every other player to be on their ECL's or blelow $2million besides Thompson, Skinner,  Tuch,. Cozens, Greenway, Dahlin, Power and Samuelsson?

the 8 players signed is about $50million

Now, you sign a "Jovanowski" for $10 

you are up to $60million  with 9 guys under contract

you have less than 30 million for the remaining 14 players...

JJP, Quinn, Levi, Kulich, Östlund, Rosen, Savoie would all be on ELC's      Mitts, Krebs and Joker are all too expensive to re-sign.

so now its 7 players and $15million or about $2 million per.  You would probably need 4 Riley Stillmans to fill up Dmen 5 to 8. Your back up would have to be someone around the Comrie level ($1.8) Million.

Is this really want you and Eleven want? 

And dont even think about 25/26 when JJP, Quinn and Levi need new contacts

 

 

 

 

 

Edited May 11 by Crusader1969

[Crusader1969]

44 minutes ago, French Collection said:

Here’s another top 16 mock draft from the Hockey Writers’ Logan Horn.

He has the Sabres taking Wood.

https://thehockeywriters.com/2023-nhl-mock-draft-lottery/

The Sporting News’ Bryan Murphy has the Sabres taking Wood as well. This mock has a top 32.

https://www.sportingnews.com/us/nhl/news/nhl-mock-draft-2023-post-lottery-blackhawks-connor-bedard/ahlnbsgeq8kvbzk8kt5ykwv5

I really wonder how much thought they put into each pick. Unless there is someone there at 13 they werent expecting and they believe is much better than guys like Rosen and Östlund, I think they try to trade down or just take a Dman, even if its a couple of spots to early for Simashev or Willander

 

 

[dudacek]

Kinda hoping the Sabres can package their seconds to move up and take Simashev.

There is no player in the draft whose profile better aligns with their needs

[Crusader1969]

Just now, dudacek said:

Kinda hoping the Sabres can package their seconds to move up and take Simashev.

There is no player in the draft whose profile better aligns with their needs

me and you... same page!

[Eleven]

1 hour ago, ddaryl said:

 why would you want this?

Did you go back to my post that started this?  I think they can win Cups, multiple, starting the season after next, if they stay focused on the near term and don't worry about 2029.  I mean, my opinion may very well be wrong, but why would I *want* that?!

Edited May 11 by Eleven

[tom webster]

57 minutes ago, Crusader1969 said:

yes, next year but have you looked at 24/25?  there is no way they could afford another $11 million contact 

You keep saying you will show the math but never do.  

If you get Dahlin and Power on Team Friendly deals of $9,000,000 and $6,000,000 respectively, then at MAX you can afford to spend on another Dman is $7.000,000. That was the Contact of Jovanovski 10 years ago, that would be at least equivalent to $10 million today

Unless you basically want every other player to be on their ECL's or blelow $2million besides Thompson, Skinner,  Tuch,. Cozens, Greenway, Dahlin, Power and Samuelsson?

the 8 players signed is about $50million

Now, you sign a "Jovanowski" for $10 

you are up to $60million  with 9 guys under contract

you have less than 30 million for the remaining 14 players...

JJP, Quinn, Levi, Kulich, Östlund, Rosen, Savoie would all be on ELC's      Mitts, Krebs and Joker are all too expensive to re-sign.

so now its 7 players and $15million or about $2 million per.  You would probably need 4 Riley Stillmans to fill up Dmen 5 to 8. Your back up would have to be someone around the Comrie level ($1.8) Million.

Is this really want you and Eleven want? 

And dont even think about 25/26 when JJP, Quinn and Levi need new contacts

 

 

 

 

 

The cap is going to explode next year and eventually approach $95/$100M. They have Tage, Cozens and Tuch locked up for $20M for the foreseeable future. If they have any cap problems within the next five years, something has gone horribly wrong.

[French Collection]

1 hour ago, dudacek said:

Kinda hoping the Sabres can package their seconds to move up and take Simashev.

There is no player in the draft whose profile better aligns with their needs

He should be a target due to his skillset.

The other option would be to move back from 13 to 18 (Detroit) or 20 (Chicago) and gain a second rounder, which those teams have plenty of. 18 or 20 might be early to take him but if he is the guy you really want you do it.

The extra second rounder can be used on another Dman, which are plentiful in that round, as depth for the system.

[ScorpionZero]

FC

 

 

[Crusader1969]

55 minutes ago, tom webster said:

The cap is going to explode next year and eventually approach $95/$100M. They have Tage, Cozens and Tuch locked up for $20M for the foreseeable future. If they have any cap problems within the next five years, something has gone horribly wrong.

is not going to explode next year...its forecasted to be $87 million in 24/25 

Yes something would have gone terribly wrong, they spend like drunken Sailors (like you want them to) and bring in another guy for $11 million Per season without any regard to the future contracts of the guys they have yet to sign long term.

 

 

 

 

[ddaryl]

 

1 hour ago, Eleven said:

Did you go back to my post that started this?  I think they can win Cups, multiple, starting the season after next, if they stay focused on the near term and don't worry about 2029.  I mean, my opinion may very well be wrong, but why would I *want* that?!

If your talking about your trade the entire draft post, then yes I did read that..

I feel we wil be a fully entrenched as a playoff team this year and winning playoff series a year after if we stay the course without doing something as drastic as you proposed... 

I feel there is a balance in between what you proposed and doing nothing and just letting the youth fill the gaps, i feel we wil see some moves this year but like I said not at the level you are proposing. I forsee some solid D additions coming our way.... I do not know what the plan at G is but UPL and Cromrie don't give me the warm fuzzy feeling Devon does.

As we continue to draft and fill up the cupboard in the years ahead I can see us trading prospects and players a little more often.

Injuries do happen and losing top players for most of a season will definitely hurt even more so if we do not have players who can move into top roles while our depth fills those bottom roles... We see 1st hand on how lack of depth can hurt and relying on the trade market either nabs you secondary players you hope can refind their game or cost too much which forces other decisions

 

 

Edited May 11 by ddaryl

[tom webster]

1 hour ago, Crusader1969 said:

is not going to explode next year...its forecasted to be $87 million in 24/25 

Yes something would have gone terribly wrong, they spend like drunken Sailors (like you want them to) and bring in another guy for $11 million Per season without any regard to the future contracts of the guys they have yet to sign long term.

 

 

 

 

No one is advocating paying anyone $11M. We do expect them to add two or three $5-$6M players.

The cap is going to explode long before this team has any cap problems.

[Eleven]

4 minutes ago, tom webster said:

The cap is going to explode long before this team has any cap problems.

I don't think you're right.  I HOPE you're right, but I don't think you are.  There is a window, and it begins this coming September and ends in about June 2028 or so.

Edited May 11 by Eleven

[Crusader1969]

9 minutes ago, tom webster said:

No one is advocating paying anyone $11M. We do expect them to add two or three $5-$6M players.

The cap is going to explode long before this team has any cap problems.

 My whole reply is based upon Eleven saying he wanted to trade every trade chip the Sabres have and all their draft picks for an Ed Jovanowsk type who would cost you $10 million or so.

 

[tom webster]

6 minutes ago, Crusader1969 said:

 My whole reply is based upon Eleven saying he wanted to trade every trade chip the Sabres have and all their draft picks for an Ed Jovanowsk type who would cost you $10 million or so.

 

I’m pretty sure he isn’t advocating that but I can’t speak for him.

[tom webster]

15 minutes ago, Eleven said:

I don't think you're right.  I HOPE you're right, but I don't think you are.  There is a window, and it begins this coming September and ends in about June 2028 or so.

I’m basing my stance on two things;

1) You cannot have your top three forwards making less then any other team’s top two, a goalie on a rookie contract and at least three forwards on rookie contract and still have any kind of cap issues.

2) Someone I trust show me a paper that laid out in great detail how soon the cap will hit $100M barring any “pandemic like” situations.

I’ve been wrong before, but the future money coming in is significant and the caps been kept artificially low by the league for a couple years.

[PerreaultForever]

8 minutes ago, Crusader1969 said:

 My whole reply is based upon Eleven saying he wanted to trade every trade chip the Sabres have and all their draft picks for an Ed Jovanowsk type who would cost you $10 million or so.

 

I think I got dragged into that with a reply claiming that was my position. I see what happened now. 

Karlsson is the guy obviously on the trade board but idk what the price would be. Would it work? idk. Dahlin-Karlsson top pairing? Power Samuelsson second pairing? It does become a pretty damn good D doesn't it? 

Bruins are disgruntled and looking to move salaries. Would they trade McAvoy? What would that price be? Would you pay for him? Not sure if anybody with big money and big minutes is even out there on the block. 

I doubt we make a huge move, but it certainly would get people talking and excite the fanbase. It would definitely be playoffs or bust next year that's for sure. 

[PerreaultForever]

4 minutes ago, tom webster said:

I’m basing my stance on two things;

1) You cannot have your top three forwards making less then any other team’s top two, a goalie on a rookie contract and at least three forwards on rookie contract and still have any kind of cap issues.

2) Someone I trust show me a paper that laid out in great detail how soon the cap will hit $100M barring any “pandemic like” situations.

I’ve been wrong before, but the future money coming in is significant and the caps been kept artificially low by the league for a couple years.

I think the interest in buying Ottawa and the numbers being thrown around plus the talk of more expansion tells you the league is in pretty good shape and there's no chance of cap shrinkage any time soon. 

[Eleven]

45 minutes ago, Crusader1969 said:

 My whole reply is based upon Eleven saying he wanted to trade every trade chip the Sabres have and all their draft picks for an Ed Jovanowsk type who would cost you $10 million or so.

 

Which already has been explained as rhetoric at LEAST twice, so enough.  And Jovo didn't *always* cost 6.5, either.

Edited May 11 by Eleven

[Eleven]

31 minutes ago, PerreaultForever said:

I think I got dragged into that with a reply claiming that was my position. I see what happened now. 

Karlsson is the guy obviously on the trade board but idk what the price would be. Would it work? idk. Dahlin-Karlsson top pairing? Power Samuelsson second pairing? It does become a pretty damn good D doesn't it? 

Bruins are disgruntled and looking to move salaries. Would they trade McAvoy? What would that price be? Would you pay for him? Not sure if anybody with big money and big minutes is even out there on the block. 

I doubt we make a huge move, but it certainly would get people talking and excite the fanbase. It would definitely be playoffs or bust next year that's for sure. 

Karlsson is not part of my dream team.  Pre-contract McAvoy is ideal.

43 minutes ago, tom webster said:

I’m pretty sure he isn’t advocating that but I can’t speak for him.

Yeah, someone is just being an ass for the sake of it at this point.

[French Collection]

Mock draft lists are being finalized and there shouldn’t be much more movement. Only 6 CHL teams are still playing and a few prospects like Fantilli, Carlsson, Reinbacher, Fisker-Moelgaard are playing at the World Championships. Benson, Bonk, Sawchyn and Barkey are some potential top two rounders still playing in the CHL playoffs.

I like to look at most of them and take an average of where players rank. I think I used 15 lists at the mid term rankings. There will probably be more than that available pre-draft. Elite prospects has a lot of good information and lists.

I will share my information here when I have compiled enough data.

[Eleven]

4 minutes ago, French Collection said:

Bonk

Well, if I've learned anything from watching the Sens screw up draft after draft, it's avoid guys with this name.  

Edited May 11 by Eleven

[#freejame]

I’d like to see one of three things happen:

Package our first for a top 4 d

or

Package our first and some draft stock to move up to draft a potential top 4 d

or

Package our first and some draft stock to move up to 7 and take Michkov if he’s there

 

I haven’t kept up much on this draft, but if years past hold true we would only be looking at an extra year for Michkov to come over compared to another forward at 13. 

[PerreaultForever]

1 hour ago, Eleven said:

Karlsson is not part of my dream team.  Pre-contract McAvoy is ideal.

Well you can't "pre-contract" him and if not Karlsson (who is on the block) then who? 

[Thorny]

1 hour ago, #freejame said:

I’d like to see one of three things happen:

Package our first for a top 4 d

or

Package our first and some draft stock to move up to draft a potential top 4 d

or

Package our first and some draft stock to move up to 7 and take Michkov if he’s there

 

I haven’t kept up much on this draft, but if years past hold true we would only be looking at an extra year for Michkov to come over compared to another forward at 13. 

Trading up is kinda statistically folly but I’d be up for trading down and picking up an asset, or dealing the pick entirely. I know there’s zero chance of that happening but still.