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Rasmus Dahlin for Norris, 2023


LGR4GM

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4 minutes ago, Thorny said:

More less what I think / hope but I suppose we’ll have to see 

Like I said, I buy the idea of Karlsson getting it and even deserving it: my problem would lie in Dahlin not finishing 2nd, let alone not getting a nomination at all

I think the nomination is probably 90% locked at this point, but if they miss the playoffs it becomes a matter of how they miss the playoffs. What's the end-of-season perception of Dahlin and the Sabres? Then, compare that with how the others do.

If Buffalo is in it until the end before a hot run by Ottawa seals the deal (something more or less out of Dahlin's control) he's got 2nd. If Buffalo stumbles mid-March and then ends up riding out the string for the final 2 weeks... he could dip to 4th. If the Devils get past Carolina and get a 1st round WC team instead of the Rangers, does that push Hamilton up a single spot? Alternately, does a single fix like taking Bryson out of the Sabres lineup result in the team giving up fewer than 3 goals a game down the stretch, turning them into a powerhouse 15-5 finish, and Dahlin coasts to the Norris?

A lot can happen in the final quarter of the season.

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1 hour ago, Thorny said:

But the eastern media usually dominates, no? and isnt Dahlin the top guy in the East? 2 guys from western Canada in Morrissey and Hamilton who are having inferior seasons make up the gap because they’re from..western Canada? Tbh I think you are stretching here. There’s a combination of blinders possible to have Dahlin 7th or 8th or 30th or whatever you apparently have him finishing in voting but I don’t really see it 

Minor point but Hamilton is from Toronto.

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23 minutes ago, French Collection said:

Minor point but Hamilton is from Toronto.

Not minor, I was mistaken. But actually for a different reason lol.

For whatever reason I was thinking Calgary when I said Hamilton. Did he play there even? lol. Morrissey Jets (ala western Canada) and ya, had Calgary in there. So New Jersey for Hamilton: but is still have Dahlin as the East’s front runner 

Edit LOL ok he’s not even on NJ he’s on Carolina. Played on Calgary, Jersey, and Carolina, all 3. The most dealt Norris contender in history 

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24 minutes ago, Thorny said:

Adam Fox is the current internet All-Around D Guy and Dahlin this season is pantsing even him, metrically 
 

Whether he wins the Norris or not, how amazing is it that using just about any measure you feel like (points, eye test, fancy stats) Rasmus Dahlin is the best defender in the NHL? 

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7 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Whether he wins the Norris or not, how amazing is it that using just about any measure you feel like (points, eye test, fancy stats) Rasmus Dahlin is the best defender in the NHL? 

I agree. Any Sabres fan has the tools at their disposal to show very well in any argument about who the league’s best d-man is, should they choose to pursue it. 

It doesn’t require any bias at all. 

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Just now, Taro T said:

Purely off name recognition either Makar or Fox.

Both will be in the playoffs and expect that will matter to voters.  (Though it objectively shouldn't.)

You didn’t say Morrissey so you for today are safe 

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58 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Whether he wins the Norris or not, how amazing is it that using just about any measure you feel like (points, eye test, fancy stats) Rasmus Dahlin is the best defender in the NHL? 

 

51 minutes ago, Thorny said:

I agree. Any Sabres fan has the tools at their disposal to show very well in any argument about who the league’s best d-man is, should they choose to pursue it. 

It doesn’t require any bias at all. 

I'm actually kinda surprised that the statistical case (the whole package, not just the points) hasn't driven more of the conversation toward Dahlin.

I'm thinking there's a portion of the hockey world that has yet to fully grasp how strong in his own zone, and how physically abrasive he has become.

They might be vaguely aware he's no longer 'soft' or 'a disaster in his own zone' but they've yet to grasp he can shut them down and piss them off with the best of them, in addition to being the second-best offence-generating blueliner in the league.

Personally, I blame it partially on the fact he's European, and partially on the fact he's a Sabre and Thompson has stolen the spotlight as far as the Sabre renaissance goes.

 

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11 minutes ago, dudacek said:

 

I'm actually kinda surprised that the statistical case (the whole package, not just the points) hasn't driven more of the conversation toward Dahlin.

I'm thinking there's a portion of the hockey world that has yet to fully grasp how strong in his own zone, and how physically abrasive he has become.

They might be vaguely aware he's no longer 'soft' or 'a disaster in his own zone' but they've yet to grasp he can shut them down and piss them off with the best of them, in addition to being the second-best offence-generating blueliner in the league.

Personally, I blame it partially on the fact he's European, and partially on the fact he's a Sabre and Thompson has stolen the spotlight as far as the Sabre renaissance goes.

 

Definitely true. I think it’s the first bit, honestly. There are people in those threads, including the OP in the Fox thread, pointing out they were unaware of how significantly good Dahlin has been playing actual defence, specifically, or just straight up acknowledging it when it’s pointed out. I think it’s the Sabres thing too (but that should change). Don’t see it as a Euro thing, tbh, too much of a history there of great Norris Swedes 

I can’t see this being anything other than the last year, of that. Of that aspect of his game being ignored. Message has been delivered 

As an edit - personally I see both Dahlin and Tage being presented as the faces of the turnaround but I might just be biased

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4 minutes ago, Thorny said:

Definitely true. I think it’s the first bit, honestly. There are people in those threads, including the OP in the Fox thread, pointing out they were unaware of how significantly good Dahlin has been playing actual defence, specifically, or just straight up acknowledging it when it’s pointed out. I think it’s the Sabres thing too (but that should change). Don’t see it as a Euro thing, tbh, too much of a history there of great Norris Swedes 

I can’t see this being anything other than the last year, of that. 

The other part that opens eyes is a playoff appearance. The entire league is watching then. Quinn Hughes turned that 2020 expanded playoff into a showcase for everyone. Dahlin's hasn't had that yet. Wait until the world sees him control the ice for 28 minutes/game in a 7-game series. He'll be a Norris candidate for the next 10 years once that happens.

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Karlsson was shut out last night but so was Dahlin.

Rasmus looks banged up and I think he is playing because of the Wild Card status. He may shut it down if the Sabres get eliminated. This would definitely hurt his chances, no playoffs and fewer games played.

Hopefully it is something that gets better, but I think the rest is what he needs.

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1 hour ago, French Collection said:

Karlsson was shut out last night but so was Dahlin.

Rasmus looks banged up and I think he is playing because of the Wild Card status. He may shut it down if the Sabres get eliminated. This would definitely hurt his chances, no playoffs and fewer games played.

Hopefully it is something that gets better, but I think the rest is what he needs.

Sabres won’t be eliminated until the last few of season, likely. At least by math 

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Fairly detailed article on The Athletic that uses GSVA (game score value add) to rank the top Norris contenders. https://theathletic.com/4289690/2023/03/09/nhl-norris-trophy-breakdown/   

Firewall? 

Top 5 are all bunched together and covered in the article: Fox 3.8, Lindholm 3.8, Burns 3.8, Karlsson 3.7, Dahlin 3.7

Note the absentees who will garner some conversation: Hamilton (6th 3.4); Josi (7th 3.3); Makar (8th 3.2); McAvoy; Slavin; Morrissey

Dahlin's case for:

" Relative to teammates, it’s actually Dahlin who has had the largest impact of the five, allowing 0.35 fewer expected goals against per 60 and 0.4 fewer actual goals against per 60. His impact on goal differential is the closest to Karlsson’s (0.82 per 60 compared to Karlsson’s 0.96), but he does it at both ends of the ice. Dahlin has been on the ice for 57.8 percent of the goals, which isn’t completely far off from Fox or Burns. Dahlin’s expected goals percentage is 52.4 percent, the lowest of the five, but that may have more to do with the team around him than him. He also faces the toughest usage of anyone on this list."

Dahlin's case against:

PP/PK

"Dahlin being part of an elite power play is a plus, but it also makes him a bit of a power-play merchant. That’s where 44 percent of his points come from...

"...Dahlin has been on the ice for 11.9 goals-per-60 on the power play, but only 7.6 expected goals-per-60 which suggests he has some luck on his side in that regard, too. Dahlin also allows more chances while penalty killing than the other Norris contenders here.

5 on 5 D

"... He has the best relative numbers, sure, but that’s compared to a very weak defensive team. Dahlin’s results are strong overall, but they’re not on the same level as the field here. 

Dahlin is not particularly strong defending the rush. He allows a carry on 62 percent of his targets, denies seven percent of entries and allows a scoring chance on 18 percent of his targets — all below league average. He’s also still a little risky when it comes to exiting the zone. Dahlin has a heavy workload there, but his 8.9 botched puck retrievals or failed exits per 60 is one of the lesser marks in the league."

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On 3/7/2023 at 2:11 PM, Thorny said:

Not minor, I was mistaken. But actually for a different reason lol.

For whatever reason I was thinking Calgary when I said Hamilton. Did he play there even? lol. Morrissey Jets (ala western Canada) and ya, had Calgary in there. So New Jersey for Hamilton: but is still have Dahlin as the East’s front runner 

Edit LOL ok he’s not even on NJ he’s on Carolina. Played on Calgary, Jersey, and Carolina, all 3. The most dealt Norris contender in history 

Dammit. NJ. I will never learn where Hamilton plays apparently 

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This dude stares at a button that says "Danger: Do Not Press" and deliberately presses it

That is how I feel watching him commit obvious bone-headed penalties every single game. That thing you go out of your way to do - please just don't do it. It's very easy to abstain from doing it. Stop 

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58 minutes ago, French Collection said:

Rasmus hasn’t been helping his case lately.

Morrissey got hurt tonight, hasn’t played since the second.

Jets beat Panthers in OT.

He needs to pick up the rate before it’s more of a question of holding off the likes of Brandon Montour 

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As much as I’d like to take the other side, objectively this one seems to be slipping away. 

That’s what a stretch of 1 point in 7 games with an accompanying -6 rating will do. Down to 4th in scoring for D league wide, 4th in team scoring, with Cozens closing in 

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2 minutes ago, Thorny said:

As much as I’d like to take the other side, objectively this one seems to be slipping away. 

That’s what a stretch of 1 point in 7 games with an accompanying -6 rating will do. Down to 4th in scoring for D league wide, 4th in team scoring, with Cozens closing in 

Still like his chances to be a finalist.  He just has to get past whatever injury is cutting down his effectiveness as the game wears on.  He still looks great in the 1st period of games but seems to wear down by the end with his heavy usage.

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1 minute ago, Taro T said:

Still like his chances to be a finalist.  He just has to get past whatever injury is cutting down his effectiveness as the game wears on.  He still looks great in the 1st period of games but seems to wear down by the end with his heavy usage.

Think Makar or Fox prob snags last nom

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9 minutes ago, Taro T said:

Still a lot of time to get back into the spot he was just 3 weeks ago.  IF he can get past whatever it is that's limiting him.

His poor (relative) play? I’d agree 

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