Is Tage Thompson a top 10 NHL player? Is he top 5?

[Sabres Fan in NS]

If I were a GM stating a rebuild TT would be on the top of my list.  The only player I would take ahead of him would be McDavid.

I would also pick him for my playoff team taking aim at the cup.  Top 10 for sure.  Probably top 5.

[Taro T]

He HAS to be in the top 10.

He isn't #1.

Would take McDavid or Dahlin ahead of him.  Probably would take MacKinnon ahead of him too.

 

The flip question, which of the players on that list would be not be expendable for him, would only have 6 or so more than above: Draisatl, Robertson, Matthews, Kucherov, & Makar.  (Would have a hard time parting w/ Tkachuk, Morrissey, or Fox; but probably would.)

Didn't include contract considerations there.  If that is included, only Makar definitely gets added to that short list above.

Not sure how much familiarity is biasing those choices.

So, guess that'd put him between 4 & 10 inclusive.

[matter2003]

3 minutes ago, Sabres Fan in NS said:

If I were a GM stating a rebuild TT would be on the top of my list.  The only player I would take ahead of him would be McDavid.

I would also pick him for my playoff team taking aim at the cup.  Top 10 for sure.  Probably top 5.

Not even Eichel?? 😂

1 hour ago, French Collection said:

Correct on the Matthews season. He won the Hart because of goals, McDavid didn’t explode to nearly 2 pt/g like he did the previous season and the current one. Also, some people wanted a change from McJesus winning it every year.

I think McDavid’s goal scoring this year is a result of last year’s votes. Too bad Tage is doing his thing in the same season.

Kinda like Allen's 2020 season that would have won MVP in like 98% of the other seasons that just happened to be when Rodgers had one of the all-time greatest QB seasons.

[GASabresIUFAN]

4 minutes ago, Sabres Fan in NS said:

If I were a GM stating a rebuild TT would be on the top of my list.  The only player I would take ahead of him would be McDavid.

I would also pick him for my playoff team taking aim at the cup.  Top 10 for sure.  Probably top 5.

Robertson vs Thompson

Robertson - age 23 - YTD 39gm 26g 29a 55 pts - Career 167gm 84g 96a 180 pts

Thompson - age 25 - YTD 36gm 30a 25a 55 pts - Career 259gm 86g 72a 158 pts

As much as I love what Thompson has become, Robertson is as good a player and is 2 years younger.

[Eleven]

1 hour ago, Pimlach said:

Look at it this way.  How many guys would you trade him for in the list? 

This is the best criterion IMO.

[thewookie1]

13 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Robertson vs Thompson

Robertson - age 23 - YTD 39gm 26g 29a 55 pts - Career 167gm 84g 96a 180 pts

Thompson - age 25 - YTD 36gm 30a 25a 55 pts - Career 259gm 86g 72a 158 pts

As much as I love what Thompson has become, Robertson is as good a player and is 2 years younger.

However Thompson is a Center and giant

[IKnowPhysics]

Not the end-all-be-all for building a franchise ground-up, but here's CapFriendly's cost-per-point tool for an idea of production per dollar.

No surprise: Tage making $1.4M this year puts him at 1st place value league-wide.  Even if he were making his $7.142M this year, he'd still be at $129.9k/P, good for 173rd in the league.  For reference, McDavid is costing $171k/P this season, which puts him 254th.  Tage's performance versus contract cost over the next years is the kind of salary cap advantage that can win Cups.

Maybe surprising is who's a very close #2 in cost per point. Still on his ELC and putting up 35P in 36GP (on pace for 79P in 82GP) is Dylan Cozens.

Also good to know:  JJ is 29th, Quinn is 31st.  Power is 62nd.  Asplund at 126, Krebs at 144.  Tuch at 151.  Mittelstadt at 170.

[nfreeman]

I really think that the "who would you trade him for" standard is fundamentally different from the "one playoff run" standard.  The "who would you trade him for" standard is pretty much the same as "starting a team for the next 7 years" standard, and necessarily has to take into consideration age and contract -- and those factors put TT in the top 5, IMHO.

But the "one playoff run" standard eliminates contract, and more or less eliminates age, although it's fair to consider whether an older player might run out of gas by the conf. finals or cup finals.  Under this standard, I'd have to put Crosby and Marchand over TT, whereas I wouldn't do so under the trade value standard.

Some of the younger/mid-career guys are very tough calls under either standard:

Mathews

Marner

M. Tkachuk

Pastrnak

Kaprizov

Makar

Dahlin

 

[Refuting]

I wouldn't trade him for anyone right now 

One playoff run? Yeah, I'd take other guys. Seems obvious 

Tage has not yet been to the playoffs and a lot of guys crumble/underperform when they get there 

[Taro T]

4 minutes ago, nfreeman said:

I really think that the "who would you trade him for" standard is fundamentally different from the "one playoff run" standard.  The "who would you trade him for" standard is pretty much the same as "starting a team for the next 7 years" standard, and necessarily has to take into consideration age and contract -- and those factors put TT in the top 5, IMHO.

But the "one playoff run" standard eliminates contract, and more or less eliminates age, although it's fair to consider whether an older player might run out of gas by the conf. finals or cup finals.  Under this standard, I'd have to put Crosby and Marchand over TT, whereas I wouldn't do so under the trade value standard.

Some of the younger/mid-career guys are very tough calls under either standard:

Mathews

Marner

M. Tkachuk

Pastrnak

Kaprizov

Makar

Dahlin

 

But the 1st Q is one GM's would actually ask about any of these players.  Who do you want on your team moving forward?  Would your GM say no or would the other?

The 2nd Q only gets asked about the guys that are long in the tooth because they'd gut too much of the team to obtain one to be put into that position of being a difference maker in that single playoff series.  (Guess am taking that hypothetical too realistically or missing a component of it.)

[triumph_communes]

I think half of what makes Tage click this season is Tuch. Those two large forwards with king reaches really gives defenseman struggles. Because of this I see him closer to a 10 than a 5.   Still a wonder to watch though 🙂

 

I don’t see Tage taking games into his own hands like some other players can. He’s just a perfect fit for the system and this gives his elite finishing ability many chances to show. 

[nfreeman]

5 minutes ago, Taro T said:

But the 1st Q is one GM's would actually ask about any of these players.  Who do you want on your team moving forward?  Would your GM say no or would the other?

The 2nd Q only gets asked about the guys that are long in the tooth because they'd gut too much of the team to obtain one to be put into that position of being a difference maker in that single playoff series.  (Guess am taking that hypothetical too realistically or missing a component of it.)

You're 100% right that the first question is a much more relevant and realistic question as far as what could conceivably happen in the NHL.  The "one playoff run" question is pure message board theorizing.  Still interesting conversation, IMHO.

 

1 minute ago, triumph_communes said:

I think half of what makes Tage click this season is Tuch. Those two large forwards with king reaches really gives defenseman struggles. Because of this I see him closer to a 10 than a 5.   Still a wonder to watch though 🙂

 

I don’t see Tage taking games into his own hands like some other players can. He’s just a perfect fit for the system and this gives his elite finishing ability many chances to show. 

Well, that game last night was pretty close, innit?

[matter2003]

11 minutes ago, triumph_communes said:

I think half of what makes Tage click this season is Tuch. Those two large forwards with king reaches really gives defenseman struggles. Because of this I see him closer to a 10 than a 5.   Still a wonder to watch though 🙂

 

I don’t see Tage taking games into his own hands like some other players can. He’s just a perfect fit for the system and this gives his elite finishing ability many chances to show. 

Uh...did you watch when he scored 4 goals in the first period against Columbus?

[Marvin]

It boggles my mind that even if he keeps it up for a bit, he might be the third best player on the Sabres behind Dahlin and Power in a couple of years.

Addendum: maybe include Samuelsson too.

Edited January 4, 2023 by Marvin

[JustOneParade]

1 hour ago, pi2000 said:

Part of his delayed development was because of the shoulder injury he suffered in Nov 2019.

He started that season in Roch tallying 12 points in 16 games, gets called up in November and blows out his shoulder in the first game missing the remainder of the season.

The following season was shortened due to Covid. 

I believe if he stayed healthy in 2019, and there was no Covid season, we'd have seen this procuction earlier in his career.

Followed by 'the Plague' until March 17, 2021.

[matter2003]

11 minutes ago, Marvin said:

It boggles my mind that even if he keeps it up for a bit, he might be the third best player on the Sabres behind Dahlin and Power in a couple of years.

Addendum: maybe include Samuelsson too.

I don't think anyone is putting a 100+ point player behind 3 other dudes...maybe Dahlin, but that is it.

[Marvin]

1 minute ago, matter2003 said:

I don't think anyone is putting a 100+ point player behind 3 other dudes...maybe Dahlin, but that is it.

A few pundits think Power will be better than Dahlin.  If they are right, TNT could easily be 3rd on the Sabres.

[Taro T]

1 hour ago, matter2003 said:

I think the move to center more than anything is what helped him. Granato is a freaking genius in some ways.

Granato absolutely is.  100%.  Even Thompson himself didn't see him as a C at this level.

And Thompson would NOT be as good at W as he loses 40% of his range at the boards rather than what he has in open ice and he would be more defendable there.

But really believe the key to his breaking out is FINALLY growing into that massive frame.  In his very 1st traing camp practice as a Sabres he had that toe drag, reach, and most of the shot.  He was a world beater, just like in games today, in practice but was extremely ineffective in games.  He was too easily taken off the puck & needed too much time to set for a shot.  Neither of which any longer are an issue for him.  He still would've broken out but as a 60-70 point player; not the 80-100 pt player he appears to be.

Getting Eichel off the left dot on the PP also helps.   Being able to set up for an even more deadly 1 timer than Jack has helps pad the stats & would've been there regardless of whether he were playing W or C at ES.  He just needed to mature & be given the opportunity for that part of it.

 

Back to the Q of the OP: #### yeah, it'll continue.

[PromoTheRobot]

Tage is a big reason.

[IKnowPhysics]

Math tangent.

 

If you consider production rate, Tage Thompson isn't just the best in points per dollar, he's 2nd best in points per minute (behind McDavid).  Skinner is 9th, Tuch 16th, Cozens 28th, Dahlin 118th, Hinostroza 129th, Quinn 135th.

If you consider Points per Min per dollar of Cap Hit (analogous to the player's production rate per minute of ice time per cap dollar spent), Cozens is 6th in the league in P/Min/$.  Thompson is 10th.  Quinn is 32nd, QJJ is 52nd, Asplund is 54th, Krebs 138th.

We've got several good players in terms of absolute production, production rate, and production rate value, especially Thompson and the ELC boys.  But we're also getting great value from Tuch and good value from Skinner.

[dudacek]

36 minutes ago, triumph_communes said:

 

I don’t see Tage taking games into his own hands like some other players can. He’s just a perfect fit for the system and this gives his elite finishing ability many chances to show. 

A few have said it, but I can’t disagree with you more on this.

He had 4 points last night. Not one of them was a freebie. Not one of them happens if an average player was on the ice in his place.

He did that, including the winning goal, in Washington, against an engaged Alex Ovechkin.

He’s had 8 games of 3 or more points, including 3 hat-tricks and 2 6-point games. 

His goals are almost never tap-ins or lucky bounces.

He has taken over more games this year than any player outside McDavid.

[PerreaultForever]

Well I'd say at the moment he's definitely a top 10 player, possibly top 5, and definitely a dominant player that other teams have to worry about and focus on like a McDavid or Crosby and Ovi (in their primes anyway). I'm not sure you can definitely say at this point, as the body of work isn't large enough and he was a late bloomer, but it's also possible he hasn't peaked yet either. If that's the case he might even become Mario Lemieux calibre. he is certainly a player who can at any moment shift a game in the team's favour. 

I think team's haven't quite figured out how to deal with him yet. He can be fast enough that you have to skate with him, he's big enough that you can't easily hit or intimidate him, and he has that reach so just getting in his way can leave you turned around and looking stupid too. I would suspect that in time lots of teams will decide the best way to defend against him is to try to isolate him and prevent the pass from getting to him by concentrating on his linemates and our D. If that happens he will have to carry the puck more and then, when he's doing that, as the players come to him, make that pass instead of taking that shot, much like he did with the behind the back play to Tuch. He keeps mastering that and adapts his game to the opposition in each case, then yes, he can be Mario. 

Right now, assuming he accepts that contract and plays to his max with it (as it'll look like a low ball deal at this rate) it'll make him the best player in the league to build around without question in terms of cost vs. production. 

So at the moment I'd probably put him even or slightly ahead of Pasternak, below McDavid and McKinnon. Ahead of Matthews and Marner, about even with Kucherov, but in time ahead due to age. Crosby and Ovi are too old to equate.

Bottom line, despite what we all thought, the ROR trade has turned out pretty good after all. 

[matter2003]

42 minutes ago, Marvin said:

A few pundits think Power will be better than Dahlin.  If they are right, TNT could easily be 3rd on the Sabres.

Hmm...you may not be wrong...stunning difference between numbers with Power on the ice versus him off the ice in terms of goals scored.

The Verdict

Simply put, Owen Power is having one of the better seasons we have ever seen from a defenseman his age in the NHL. While his point production may say otherwise, he is a defenseman who has been able to create offense in non-traditional ways.

He plays the game in a selfless manner, always looking for ways to manipulate time and space to allow his teammate to create. It’s very easy to see why the Buffalo Sabres took him 1st overall in the 2021 NHL Draft as he is pretty much a coach’s dream on the blue line.

Will he ever develop Rasmus Dahlin’s finishing ability? Probably not, he’s never really been a volume shooter. Will he ever play with the same flare as Rasmus Dahlin? Also, probably not. He really does not have to do either of these things to be an effective offensive defenseman and this season is showing that. Dahlin and Power are two players who attack the game in different but good ways.

I do think there may be room for him to grow his point production as he becomes more confident with his individual skills in the offensive zone. Also, the fact that his team is scoring so much with him on the ice, he’s bound to pick up more points. However, his individual numbers have no bearing on whether or not he can be an effective offensive defenseman, as this season has illustrated.

Think of him as a supercharger of offense on the backend of the ice. He will make the good offensive lines (especially rush-heavy lines) better as he generates time, space, and opportunity for them to make the magic happen on offense. He also makes the poor offensive lines viable offensively by giving them the puck under better conditions.

He could be better on the defensive side of things, but that could be said of any 20-year-old defenseman in the NHL. That will improve in due time, making him an even bigger net positive presence when he is on the ice.

https://thechargingbuffalo.com/2022/12/30/owen-power-the-secret-ingredient/

 

So Basically Dahlin is the guy who can carry the puck, go through the other team and make them look silly at times and Power is the guy who will draw forecheckers in while backing up and then send laser pinpoint passes to send the offense in on 3 on 2 breaks from his own end.

Edited January 4, 2023 by matter2003

[Pimlach]

1 hour ago, Refuting said:

I wouldn't trade him for anyone right now 

One playoff run? Yeah, I'd take other guys. Seems obvious 

Tage has not yet been to the playoffs and a lot of guys crumble/underperform when they get there 

Like Marner.  He is overrated in my view.  

[PASabreFan]

The easy answer is right now he clearly is. But if you had a list of the top 5 players in the game before this season I don't think TT should supplant any of them based on half a season.