On target: why are the Sabres leading the league in this stat, and what does it mean?

[dudacek]

The Sabres lead the NHL in shooting percentage.

Some might say this is an indication of puck luck and is something that is unsustainable.

I say it is an indication of players who are really good shooters, and coaching that is emphasizing high-percentage shots over high-percentage Corsi.

Discuss.

[Marvin]

13 minutes ago, dudacek said:

The Sabres lead the NHL in shooting percentage.

Some might say this is an indication of puck luck and is something that is unsustainable.

I say it is an indication of players who are really good shooters, and coaching that is emphasizing high-percentage shots over high-percentage Corsi.

Discuss.

Some of this is the design of the offence, where the team sets up to give its shooters clear shots at the net while the goaltender is moving across the crease to face the shot.  This is most obvious on the PP.

Some of this is puck-luck.

Some of this is continually playing back-ups.

[bob_sauve28]

It's because we always play against the backup goalie

 

 

[French Collection]

1 part of the equation is that the Sabres have a deadly PP. Most of the goals are from one timers, tap ins or great snipes. The overall volume of shots is low but conversion rate is high.

Dont ask me to provide the statistical proof, they are not a high volume shooting team on the PP and 5v5.

[tom webster]

As with everything, it’s a bunch of factors, some of which have been mentioned above. Another factor, since TM was GM, they put a premium on shooting skills when everything else was equal. It was the one and only reason they drafted VO.

[LGR4GM]

Just now, tom webster said:

As with everything, it’s a bunch of factors, some of which have been mentioned above. Another factor, since TM was GM, they put a premium on shooting skills when everything else was equal. It was the one and only reason they drafted VO.

Also a reason why they drafted Quinn, JJP, Kulich.  Shooting is a skill and I swear I heard someone even before Adams in the org talking the need for shooting skills. 

[French Collection]

Tage leads the team in shots by a lot and he has a great shooting percentage.

Dragging the Sabres down is KO with a 5.9% and Power with 0%.

[dudacek]

I get a little head-shakey when Rob Ray goes on one of his inevitable spiels about how the Sabres just have to throw shots at the net and see what happens when they are clearly coached not to do that.

I find it odd that Donnie gets very little credit for icing the best offence in the league. And from a team that was the worst offence in the league just 2 years ago and then traded away its entire first line.

We don't see the D blasting away from the point or the forwards taking low-percentage whacks at the net at any opportunity. Our players are in constant motion — shooting to score, or passing to a player who is in a better position to do so, or find someone who is.

This is clearly a team strategy.

On Donnie's WGR appearance this week he talked about  coaching a team at the world's that outshot an opponent 36 to 12 and lost because the other team was able to sit on their lead and how that inspired him to find ways to not let that happen.

His philosophical response is not to teach patience, or fight stone walls with one of his own; it's to teach skill and cultivate players capable of cracking that type of shell.

Edited December 23, 2022 by dudacek

[nfreeman]

Some good hockey talk in here boys.

[Curt]

My theory would be that it’s because the Sabres generate a lot of their chances off the rush.  And shots/chances off the rush have a higher shooting percentage.

[SwampD]

28 minutes ago, dudacek said:

I get a little head-shakey when Rob Ray goes on one of his inevitable spiels about how the Sabres just have to throw shots at the net and see what happens when they are clearly coached not to do that.

I find it odd that Donnie gets very little credit for icing the best offence in the league. And from a team that was the worst offence in the league just 2 years ago and then traded away its entire first line.

We don't see the D blasting away from the point or the forwards taking low-percentage whacks at the net at any opportunity. Our players are in constant motion — shooting to score, or passing to a player who is in a better position to do so, or find someone who is.

This is clearly a team strategy.

On Donnie's WGR appearance this week he talked about  coaching a team at the world's that outshot an opponent 36 to 12 and lost because the other team was able to sit on their lead and how that inspired him to find ways to not let that happen.

His philosophical response is not to teach patience, or fight stone walls with one of his own; it's to teach skill and cultivate players capable of cracking that type of shell.

Anything you said after the bold, I was most likely going to agree with.

Remember when he said, at the start of the third, that the Sabres weren't the kind of team that would just set back against Vehhgus. That they would keep coming,... just two games after the Colorado game, where the only shot they had in the third was the empty net goal. 

I definitely think it's a combination of personnel and coaching. Their cycle just looks different and better than it has the past decade. They send pucks to areas before there's even a guy there, but they get there. And I think instead of doing all that work to just fling pucks on net (as per Rob Ray) they are doing that work to fling pucks to guys open in a high danger area. (Hope that makes sense).

[SwampD]

28 minutes ago, Curt said:

My theory would be that it’s because the Sabres generate a lot of their chances off the rush.  And shots/chances off the rush have a higher shooting percentage.

I'm sure this helps, too.😀

[Porous Five Hole]

I’m not stating my opinion. 
I am stating my observation that the Sabres lead the league in goals & shooting percentage and are least in the league in hits. 
 

Is this related because it may very well be??

Edited December 24, 2022 by Porous Five Hole

[Pimlach]

20 minutes ago, Porous Five Hole said:

I’m not stating my opinion. 
I am stating my observation that the Sabres lead the league in goals & shooting percentage and are least in the league in hits. 
 

Is this related because it may very well be??

When you possess the puck you are not hitting.   What is their possession fancy stat say? 

[LGR4GM]

4 hours ago, dudacek said:

I get a little head-shakey when Rob Ray goes on one of his inevitable spiels about how the Sabres just have to throw shots at the net and see what happens when they are clearly coached not to do that.

I find it odd that Donnie gets very little credit for icing the best offence in the league. And from a team that was the worst offence in the league just 2 years ago and then traded away its entire first line.

We don't see the D blasting away from the point or the forwards taking low-percentage whacks at the net at any opportunity. Our players are in constant motion — shooting to score, or passing to a player who is in a better position to do so, or find someone who is.

This is clearly a team strategy.

On Donnie's WGR appearance this week he talked about  coaching a team at the world's that outshot an opponent 36 to 12 and lost because the other team was able to sit on their lead and how that inspired him to find ways to not let that happen.

His philosophical response is not to teach patience, or fight stone walls with one of his own; it's to teach skill and cultivate players capable of cracking that type of shell.

Pre shot movement and passing is a known variable that impacts scoring. Ever since the 8 game losing streak, I've felt they have really excelled in the area of passing and then moving into space or doing lots of switching and crossovers. It's like play action, you are giving the defense more to keep track of and think about even if it's a faint. 

[PickaPecaPickles]

I'm sure it's mostly coaching, but it could also be the emergence of Thompson?  The top line of TT, JS, and Tuch have S% of 17.8, 17.2, and 16.5.  Skinner is 6.1 points above his career average, and his best year was 14.9 with Eichel.  Tuch is 5.9 above his career average and his best year was 12.7.  That line also has 1/3 of the team's SOG.  The kids' line as a solid S% as well, so I'm sure there are several factors, but I wouldn't discount Thompson's emergence as a superstar.

[Taro T]

You all have pretty much covered it.

IMHO, out of those items cited there are 2 main drivers towards that & 1 item that hasn't been mentioned.

The 2 that have is 1, Thompson gets himself basically a tap in before he shoots if it isn't a 1 timer.  That moving the puck around the goalie to an open net has a crazy high shooting percentage.

The other is the puck movement they get before shooting.  How many times has Peterka sent a rocket into an open side of a net before the goalie can get there.  That was the way Cozens got the goal that got his goal scoring rolling & there have been several others who've scored those types of goals.

The one that wasn't mentioned (or missed it if it was said earlier) is they're leading the league in EN goals.  By definition, if they get a shot off on an empty net, it is a goal.  It doesn't count as a shot if it goes wide or is blocked by a defender.  So, on 11 (IIRC) shots they were guaranteed a goal as soon as it was officially on net.  If they've had 900 shots (likely 30 shots/game over 30 games give or take), then 1.2% of them were automatic.

[grinreaper]

As a general observation that many here might say "Duh" about, it seems to me that when I notice great passing or poor passing by the Sabres early in the game it sorta indicates what the outcome is likely going to be. Lately their passes have been quick and accurate.

[PerreaultForever]

Where would we sit in league standings if you took Tage out of the mix? I'm just wondering. 

[matter2003]

6 hours ago, bob_sauve28 said:

It's because we always play against the backup goalie

 

 

I don't think it matters anymore. We are going to score regardless.

[SwampD]

2 hours ago, PerreaultForever said:

Where would we sit in league standings if you took Tage out of the mix? I'm just wondering. 

Lower,… obviously,… but,… duh.

Where would every other team be if you took away their best scorer?

Edited December 24, 2022 by SwampD

[PerreaultForever]

1 hour ago, SwampD said:

Lower,… obviously,… but,… duh.

Where would every other team be if you took away their best scorer?

No need for that duh attitude. Obviously it would be lower but I was wondering how much lower. You're looking at a TEAM stat and there are going to be teams with one or two individuals that are outliers (Edmonton comes to mind) and then you'll have teams with a more spread out scoring roster. So I'm curious as to how much Tage raises the team as a whole. I'd guess it impacts the stats significantly, and thus the stat tells you less about the "Sabres" as a whole. 

Like in a lot of stats stuff I'd suggest you take the top 2 and bottom 2 off each team and then run the stats again. Then you'd have a much better idea of TEAM performance. 

[SwampD]

7 hours ago, PerreaultForever said:

No need for that duh attitude. Obviously it would be lower but I was wondering how much lower. You're looking at a TEAM stat and there are going to be teams with one or two individuals that are outliers (Edmonton comes to mind) and then you'll have teams with a more spread out scoring roster. So I'm curious as to how much Tage raises the team as a whole. I'd guess it impacts the stats significantly, and thus the stat tells you less about the "Sabres" as a whole. 

Like in a lot of stats stuff I'd suggest you take the top 2 and bottom 2 off each team and then run the stats again. Then you'd have a much better idea of TEAM performance. 

That wasn’t meant to be serious. Sorry.

I was bored and curious about this this morning so I did the math.

Without Tage, they would still be tied for third fourth, with a S% of 11.342%. Although, I can’t find a team S% list that goes to three decimal places. It might not be a tie. Still really good. (Never mind, just found it.)

With Tage, they are 12.257%

Edited December 24, 2022 by SwampD

[PASabreFan]

17 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

Also a reason why they drafted Quinn, JJP, Kulich.  Shooting is a skill and I swear I heard someone even before Adams in the org talking the need for shooting skills. 

It must have been Darcy/Lindy who brought Rick Martin in as a shooting coach. Post co-captains maybe. I don't think it worked. Rick probably just said, Here, do this. And the twine tingled.

[Mango]

I am irrationally annoyed that this is such a click bate title on a message board where clicks don't actually matter.