Thoughts on Thompson's & Mittelstadt's Development

[Taro T]

Two players who both had strong skill sets prior to coming to Buffalo who had serious issues early on transferring them into success at this level.  One has figured out how to make those skills work & one hasn't.  Why did the one "figure it out" while the other didn't?  And what might be done to help the other to "get it?"

Let's look at Thompson 1st.  When he came to Buffalo he already had the crazy reach & in practices he had a toe drag that could make people look stupid. He also has good speed for a big man.  He'd been a C at lower levels but got moved to W by the Blues & the Sabres brass kept him there.  He tried to make that toe drag & shot work at the NHL level but it simply didn't.  He couldn't work it quickly enough nor wide enough to make defenders back off and he could still get knocked off the puck relatively easily.  It seemed he simply wasn't coordinated enough to make it work at that level.  But thinking about it more, in practice he COULD work that toe drag, so it wasn't a lack of coordination that was making him look like a "baby giraffe."  There were coordination issues, but they seem to have been more of an adjusting to a high center of balance issue and a young 20's lack of "man strength" issue.  There may also have been a confidence issue as not having success at what came easily & naturally has to take a mental toll.  He eventually got sent to Ra-cha-cha & was successful again.  We all (well most all, there's never 100% concensus around here) thought it was because he'd altered his game & was "figuring it out."  But in hindsight it was likely more a case of playing against slower less skilled players who simply weren't good enough to counteract the toe drag.  He earned a callup back to the Sabres & promptly messed up his shoulder.  He played the next year at age 23 still on the wing and looked like a 3rd liner.

That next year he was still on the wing and got low minutes under Krueger & very few results (1g 1a IIRC) he got a bit more ice time under Granato & also better results (7g 5a in ~25 games) which had him back to a good 3rd liner.  The next year, Eichel is gone (or on his way out, technically) & the Sabres had a hole at C so Granato gave him a look at the position he'd played on the NDT & things took off.  Some of us (raises his hand sheepishly) thought it was almost entirely due to getting moved to C. & the confidence having a coach that believes in you brings.  Being away from the boards, he ca use that entire wingspan to keep the puck aeay from opponents & his coach lets him try that move that doesn't work often for normal sized humans.  That was a big part of it, but the overlooked aspect of it is by being 24 last year & 25 now, he's entering his physical prime and due to being man strong, he can withstand pretty much any legal check & his hands are just that smidge quicker that keeps the puck out of the reach of opponents.

Another thing he did which comes with being a bit wiser is he figured out when & where to just get a quick shot off without necessarily having a great look.  Getting the shot off when the goalie isn't fully ready for it can be as, if not more, effective that that cannon of his.  He tried to get to the great shot and passed over a lit of good ones.  He doesn't do that anymore.

Until extremely recently, didn't think he'd have "gotten it" staying on the wing.  Now believe he would've but not nearly at the PPG+ he's currently at.  Being on the boards steals away a lot of what makes him special.  He loses 40% of his wingspan being near the boards.  He still has the size & strength & the hands, but a big part of the sandbox he utilizes so effectively is gone when playing there.  He's probably still a 60 pt player at W (at least a 50 pt minimum) but he's legit a ppg player at C.  When Savoie, & Kulich, & Östlund, & ..., are ready to come up PLEASE coaches don't overthink it and move him back to W.  He'll be fine there but he's great at C.

Which brings us to Mittelstadt.  Casey's go to plan at lower levels was to ignore a lack of space & drive the puck into a phone booth at the top of the house & either skate through it or dish it to a now open winger & reap the rewards.  (Or as was often the case of his time as a Gopher, pass to a teammate who then flubved the glorious scoring chance.)  He didn't have any fear of a lack of space because he was better than the players around him & he could still win the battles.  His hands were quick enough & he was big enough that it usually was unfair odds when it was just 2 defenders against him.  Having above average (though not great) speed helped there too.  When he 1st got to the NHL, he still had this as his go to move.  Get the puck & drive into the phone booth.  But at the NHL he wasn't bigger than those around him & he couldn't consistently win that outnumbered battle. 

He also was not used to not having the puck because at lower levels he always had it on his stick or would go & take it back if the other team had it.  But at this level, he was TOTALLY lost in his own end because he couldn't just take the puck back.  And, to make matters worse, due to injuries or just decisions, he was often the 2C and playing against really good players for the opponent.  He eventually got sent down & Chris Taylor did a good job of both giving him a clue of what to do in his defensive zone & also to teach him that skating into traffic w/ the puck isn't a good thing.

He was brought back up initially as a W on the 3rd & 4th line & worked his way back to C eventually being regarded as the 1C coming out of TC last season.  He then suffered his injury in that 1st game & has had issues since.  He actually is pretty decent at playing positionally sound in his own end and getting the puck away from opponents but he oftentimes can't control that puck that he's just removed from his opponent.  Another issue IMHO is he doesn't receive passes as well as he should, paricularly outlet/ headman passes.   He's fine w/ receiving lateral passes but those coming from behind him he tends to biff too often.  Probably a byproduct of being way better than everybody else when developing, so he wasn't the guy getting outlet passes as he was in the fray recovering pucks & then making those passes.

Another thing working against him at present is ever since getting driving to the high traffic areas beaten out of him, he doesn't carry the puck to the net until he is almost to the goal line.  Wide & drive we used to teach our Squirts to be able to get around the D; it works but it isn't everything.  They (not just Tails) drilled that into him hard and it's stuck.  They need to get him beyond just that.

But his biggest issue is, he doesn't go to open space enough & he doesn't create open space enough.  This is where sitting a game or 2 could help him.  He could watch w/ a development coach what the other F's are doing to create space & get to space & ideally figure out how to do that himself.

He has come a seriously long way from where he was at.  And he does have skills that are still effective on the PP.  He's also (sadly, as he's just OK at it) their best faceoff man at present.  Work on receiving that outlet pass & work on finding space.  If he gets those down (& Granato & the rest must believe he can), still believe he could absolutely be a high end 3C and maybe even a good 2C.

Granato has also talked up his work ethic & leadership.  Realize many here don't agree he has either, but Granato seems disinclined to lie.  (Yes, he puts a rosy spin on things, but he doesn't outright lie.) So, if he says those are 2 of Mitts positive traits, will believe him.  He's 24 now.  This is the season he has to figure it out.  Do agree w/ those that see him getting moved if he doesn't get it to come together soon; there's some good talent that'll be ready to move up soon, if he isn't better than them, he'll be out.

And guess the point of this novella is yes Mitts has stuff to work on, but believe could improve in those areas.  Thompson made it happen.  His issues were more strength related & being deployed improperly whereas Mitts are still getting taught things he should've learned earlier (some of which he has learned since going pro) but Tage had to learn when & where the toe drag works vs just going for the 1 timer / quick shot.  You can teach giys new tricks.  Thoughts?

[mjd1001]

I'm good with Mitts playing out this year and then MAYBE even next year...unless the Sabres staff (who knows a lot more than any of us here) see he has plateaued or even regressed in aspects of his game we can't see.  HOWEVER, something has to change with him, especially even strength.  Its both the stats and the eye test, the line he is on seems to be really, really struggling the past few weeks.

I generally support Mitts more than many on this board.....but in the last 5 games...no goals, no assists and a -7 is not acceptable in any way.  In the 10 games previous to that (when the Sabres were going through injuries on the back end), he had 4 goals and 6 points in 10 games.  What happened in the last couple weeks (5 games) where you go from scoring almost every other game to being invisible in every way?

Edited December 8, 2022 by mjd1001

[Taro T]

4 minutes ago, mjd1001 said:

I'm good with Mitts playing out this year and then MAYBE even next year...unless the Sabres staff (who knows a lot more than any of us here) see he has plateaued or even regressed in aspects of his game we can't see.  HOWEVER, something has to change with him, especially even strength.  Its both the stats and the eye test, the line he is on seems to be really, really struggling the past few weeks.

I generally support Mitts more than many on this board.....but in the last 5 games...no goals, no assists and a -7 is not acceptable in any way.  In the 10 games previous to that (when the Sabres were going through injuries on the back end), he had 4 goals and 6 points in 10 games.  What happened in the last couple weeks (5 games) where you go from scoring almost every other game to being invisible in every way?

Other than his line getting demoted to the 4th line, not sure.  Great question though.

[LGR4GM]

22 minutes ago, Taro T said:

He has come a seriously long way from where he was at.  And he does have skills that are still effective on the PP.  He's also (sadly, as he's just OK at it) their best faceoff man at present.  Work on receiving that outlet pass & work on finding space.  If he gets those down (& Granato & the rest must believe he can), still believe he could absolutely be a high end 3C and maybe even a good 2C.

Granato has also talked up his work ethic & leadership.  Realize many here don't agree he has either, but Granato seems disinclined to lie.  (Yes, he puts a rosy spin on things, but he doesn't outright lie.) So, if he says those are 2 of Mitts positive traits, will believe him.  He's 24 now.  This is the season he has to figure it out.  Do agree w/ those that see him getting moved if he doesn't get it to come together soon; there's some good talent that'll be ready to move up soon, if he isn't better than them, he'll be out.

And guess the point of this novella is yes Mitts has stuff to work on, but believe could improve in those areas.  Thompson made it happen.  His issues were more strength related & being deployed improperly whereas Mitts are still getting taught things he should've learned earlier (some of which he has learned since going pro) but Tage had to learn when & where the toe drag works vs just going for the 1 timer / quick shot.  You can teach giys new tricks.  Thoughts?

I don't because I don't think he will ever have the game processing ability to do that. He reminds me of risto where there are flashes of the raw underlying skill but the processing ability to put that all together does not exist. He is the opposite of Quinn who manipulates space and finds open space to be a good option for his teammates. 

That said your central premise seems to be something along the lines of Tage did it so maybe Mitts can too and my answer is no. Tage like Josh Allen is an exception. A strange Unicorn who bucked trends and found ways to improve and become very good. Mitts is going to be the rule, he is going to be the former 1st round pick who couldn't adapt his skills to the NHL and will be a bottom 6 guy that bounces around a bit before either finding a home or washing out. I wanted Mitts to work but I don't see him mentally understanding the game at a level needed to make his skillset truly shine and I am not prepared to insulate him with better players so he can be useful here. Trade him for defense help and then let Östlund, Savoie, Kulich or someone else slide into that role over the next couple years. We can find a 3c in UFA to plug that gap until then. 

[triumph_communes]

Mitts is a wing if anything 

[LGR4GM]

FTR I would move Olofsson before I move Mitts if there were options. I think Mitts could be an okayish winger on the 3rd or 4th line. 

[Huckleberry]

Just now, LGR4GM said:

FTR I would move Olofsson before I move Mitts if there were options. I think Mitts could be an okayish winger on the 3rd or 4th line. 

Also one of our best at faceoffs still I guess.

[LGR4GM]

17 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

Also one of our best at faceoffs still I guess.

I cannot tell you how much I don't care about his ability to win 5.5 draws out of 10 compared to some other dudes 4.8 draws out of 10. It is just not relevant to how I evaluate him at all. 

[mjd1001]

1 hour ago, LGR4GM said:

FTR I would move Olofsson before I move Mitts if there were options. I think Mitts could be an okayish winger on the 3rd or 4th line. 

I'd still keep Olofsson. Until there is a clear replacement on the roster, and that young replacement is proven, I'll keep a very streaky but very good PP guy around.  I currently think his current goal-less streak is more a factor of how bad his line overall is playing.  He isnt not a great 2 way player, but again, unless I'm getting a useful player or a 1st rounder back I keep him until some young guy forces him out.

1 hour ago, LGR4GM said:

I cannot tell you how much I don't care about his ability to win 5.5 draws out of 10 compared to some other dudes 4.8 draws out of 10. It is just not relevant to how I evaluate him at all. 

I agree with that. 

Edited December 8, 2022 by mjd1001

[Sabres Fan in NS]

A big factor in both of their developments is age, while not a big difference it is a factor I think, and conditioning (maybe not the right word, but Casey's injuries have set him back).

I think that they learn things in different way, but one thing for sure is RaKru set them both back in their development and may have actually turned their development backwards.  I think DG had to spend condsiderable time undoing what had been done by RaKru.

Tage has been released by DG and has blossomed.  Casey still has a good chance to become a good 3rd line winger.  I think DG will move him there officially when some of the younger centres develop a bit more.

[Weave]

Taro. Holy *****, did you go to the GA school of posting?  I’m not reading all that LOL.

[Taro T]

11 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

I don't because I don't think he will ever have the game processing ability to do that. He reminds me of risto where there are flashes of the raw underlying skill but the processing ability to put that all together does not exist. He is the opposite of Quinn who manipulates space and finds open space to be a good option for his teammates. 

That said your central premise seems to be something along the lines of Tage did it so maybe Mitts can too and my answer is no. Tage like Josh Allen is an exception. A strange Unicorn who bucked trends and found ways to improve and become very good. Mitts is going to be the rule, he is going to be the former 1st round pick who couldn't adapt his skills to the NHL and will be a bottom 6 guy that bounces around a bit before either finding a home or washing out. I wanted Mitts to work but I don't see him mentally understanding the game at a level needed to make his skillset truly shine and I am not prepared to insulate him with better players so he can be useful here. Trade him for defense help and then let Östlund, Savoie, Kulich or someone else slide into that role over the next couple years. We can find a 3c in UFA to plug that gap until then. 

It's possible that he doesn't process hockey well enough, but don't expect it is.  Expect it's more of a case of those who said he should've gone to junior rather than stay loyal to his HS were right that staying in HS would hurt his development.  It did, he did not learn a lot of the things you only find out when you're being challenged by tougher competition.  When he 1st came here, he was flat out horrible in his own end.  Would joke to wifey that he looked like a golden Labrador puppy trying to figure out where ball was when the puck was in his own end and that was from never really having faced opponents regularly that he had to understand where to be to make the defensive system work.  But he got much better at that.  He gets where he needs to be & pretty much stays in that area.  Your buddy Risto never could figure that out.  A cycle was his kryptonite.  Get him & Eichel together against a good cycle & they were toast.

And he also was taught to avoid going into the phone booth.  He doesn't do that anymore - ever.  Thing is, he's ready to get taught how to find & utilize open space.  Maybe he can't learn that.  Expect he can, but believe there's a real possibility that w/ limited time the coaching staff see spending time w/ the other young guys as better utilization of their time as the Cozterkinn line all has 1st line upside (not saying they necessarily will be that, but it is still each one's ceiling) & Mitts doesn't.

And, no, you missed the premise.  Will try to expound on it more later, but have already wasted way too much time today on the subject.  (Not trying to be dismissive; have a day job and really have been here way too long today.)

[inkman]

I think Casey needs a change of scenery.  Find another teams Jost or Mitts and swap them out. The league is full of high draft picks that don’t live up to their draft position hype.  I’d take another teams Girgensons to shore up the bottom six. Ceiling may be lower than Casey’s but at least you have a player you can ice without getting caved. 

[Curt]

The major thing for Thompson that I always come back to is that there are tangible physical reasons for why he may have taken a while to break out.

At ages 17-19 when most young hockey players are finished growing and really start to build strength/coordination, Thompson grew 6” in like 18 months.  That’s a lot of added length to add strength onto.

I think it delayed his development by a couple years.

Basically, Tage is a unicorn and you just can’t compare regular horses to him.

Edited December 8, 2022 by Curt

[inkman]

2 minutes ago, Taro T said:

It's possible that he doesn't process hockey well enough, but don't expect it is.  Expect it's more of a case of those who said he should've gone to junior rather than stay loyal to his HS were right that staying in HS would hurt his development.  It did, he did not learn a lot of the things you only find out when you're being challenged by tougher competition.  When he 1st came here, he was flat out horrible in his own end.  Would joke to wifey that he looked like a golden Labrador puppy trying to figure out where ball was when the puck was in his own end and that was from never really having faced opponents regularly that he had to understand where to be to make the defensive system work.  But he got much better at that.  He gets where he needs to be & pretty much stays in that area.  Your buddy Risto never could figure that out.  A cycle was his kryptonite.  Get him & Eichel together against a good cycle & they were toast.

And he also was taught to avoid going into the phone booth.  He doesn't do that anymore - ever.  Thing is, he's ready to get taught how to find & utilize open space.  Maybe he can't learn that.  Expect he can, but believe there's a real possibility that w/ limited time the coaching staff see spending time w/ the other young guys as better utilization of their time as the Cozterkinn line all has 1st line upside (not saying they necessarily will be that, but it is still each one's ceiling) & Mitts doesn't.

And, no, you missed the premise.  Will try to expound on it more later, but have already wasted way too much time today on the subject.  (Not trying to be dismissive; have a day job and really have been here way too long today.)

What I notice about Casey is that he just doesn’t know what to do with the puck. He either puts it in an area where the opposing team has the advantage or he just skates the puck into no man’s land.  He’s good (not great) on the PP because there are defined limitations.  He doesn’t need to think much. Get puck, move puck.  
 

This is the witching hour for Adams. He’s frustratingly patient and it has worked in spades with Tage, Dahlin, Cozens, Samuelsson.  With the teams offense where it is, two or 3 player additions could vault this team into contender status.  We have loads of high end talent at forward.  We need to round out the D, get another bottom six player to support 28,21,17,74, and FFS get a goalie under 40 who doesn’t give up 4 goals a game. 

[Eleven]

I don't think Mittelstadt is developing and I'd trade him in a second.

[Weave]

11 minutes ago, Eleven said:

I don't think Mittelstadt is developing and I'd trade him in a second.

Neither do I.  And its a pattern that has gone on for 3 seasons, extenuating circumstances be damned.

What ever it is that is missing from his game that would translate his obvious skills to the NHL does not appear to be developing at all.  Its past time to call this an organizational hole and fill it with another player.

[Sabres Fan in NS]

1 hour ago, Weave said:

Taro. Holy *****, did you go to the GA school of posting?  I’m not reading all that LOL.

I didn't read it either, but still gave @Taro T a cup thingie based on posting reputation.

I read the thread title and just posted what I thought.

[Thorny]

Mitts might and probably will improve but he’s not going to undergo development like Tage and I fear, like Allen (who actually doesn’t even compare to Tage for the unlikelihood of rise) that one player like Tage going through a truly unprecedented swing and rise to prominence will have people thinking it’ll happen with other players failing to establish. 

Most times, the players don’t. Sometimes they do, though, and Tage is a good lesson to not give up too early.  But players don’t rocket like he did: that’s a Tage thing 

He’s an insane exception to the standard. A truly odds-defying case. If that sort of development is projected onto other players, the uniqueness of it isn’t being appreciated enough. 

I understand the OP mentioned Mitts as a potential 3C still, and that is still possible. 

Edited December 8, 2022 by Thorny

[Thorny]

2 hours ago, triumph_communes said:

Mitts is a wing if anything 

I was on that track from the start 

1 hour ago, mjd1001 said:

I'd still keep Olofsson. Until there is a clear replacement on the roster, and that young replacement is proven, I'll keep a very streaky but very good PP guy around.  I currently think his current goal-less streak is more a factor of how bad his line overall is playing.  He isn not a great 2 way player, but again, unless I'm getting a useful player or a 1st rounder back I keep him until some young guy forces him out.

I agree with that. 

Agree. VO also generally tallies more assists than we’ve seen this year so far 

[Refuting]

Thompsons development has been other worldy. It's because Jack is off the team. He got all of Jack's ice time. He was a skill player from the beginning those are guys that need the proper ice time (see Clarke MacArthur getting way better with the Leafs) 

Granato realized this and immediately undid everything that was done so blatantly wrong. That's why we're seeing Skinner and Tuch doing as well as ever before 

Tage seems like the complete opposite of Jack in terms or personality regarding leadership and selflessness hence the absurd development he has undertaken 

Casey Mittlestat is worthless to me he's another Matt Ellis or Remi Elie type 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[inkman]

11 minutes ago, Refuting said:

Casey Mittlestat is worthless to me he's another Matt Ellis or Remi Elie type 

Harsh but possibly true.  Mitts clearly is more skilled than Ellis but the Elie comparison isn’t far off.  

[Refuting]

I get what you're saying inkman

 

Mittlestadtz just seems hopeless to me. I don't hate the guy at all but some guys just dont have it. He's that guy 

[Thorny]

Some Kyle Wellwood in Mittestadt

[Refuting]

Kyle Wellwood was 10x better than Middlingstats in his worst year