Are the Sabres out of the running for the playoffs?

[PASabreFan]

To put things in perspective, since 12/7 when this thread was started the Sabres have gone 14-6-3. That's a 110 point pace for a full season. They've made up five points on the final playoff spot. What they're doing is impressive and shows how hard it is to stay in a playoff race after getting off to a slow start. And they'll have to continue to stay hot the rest of the way, although not 110 point pace hot, to make it. 33 games to go!

Edited January 29, 2023 by PASabreFan

[Mango]

On 1/26/2023 at 12:28 AM, dudacek said:

It's all just exercises in math that ultimately don't mean a thing (we still need to win, they need to lose).

But when he says we need 41 points in our next 35 games for an even chance, that doesn't seem too daunting at all.

We've played 2 points behind that pace over our past 35 and well above it for our past 25.

With the way the team is playing 21-14 seems totally reasonable.

 

Hoping we can take this mini-bye to get Cozens and Mule going then take it to Carolina before the break. 

Edited January 29, 2023 by Mango
Word

[bob_sauve28]

Passing Washington and Pittsburgh would be a handing off of the baton from old champs to the new kids on the block 

[Cityo'Rasmii]

28 minutes ago, bob_sauve28 said:

Passing Washington and Pittsburgh would be a handing off of the baton from old champs to the new kids on the block 

Let's do this ^

[PickaPecaPickles]

While the Sabres have put themselves into position for a playoff spot, their last 33 games will be (in general) tougher in terms of facing teams in the top half of the league in GAA. Of the 49 games played to date, 22 (45%) were against teams in the top half of the league. For their last 33 games, 20 (60%) will be against teams in the top half, and 15 against teams in the top 10. 

Fortunately, this last road trip has shown they are up to the task, as DAL and WPG are both top 5 GAA, and MIN 12th. They certainly won't average 3-0-1 through this, but if they can average 2-1-1 (16-9-8), that would put them at 96 points and should get them in this year since the conference is much more competitive. Last year, the Isles were 9th in the standings, 16 points behind the Caps, the last team in.  At this point, I'd say only CBJ and the Habs are out of the race.

It should be quite a finish.

[Mustache of God]

The athletic had an article earlier this week saying the sabres have one of the toughest schedules for the remainder of the season and they weren't projecting them to make the playoffs. I think they're wrong.

[Marvin]

2 hours ago, Mustache of God said:

The athletic had an article earlier this week saying the sabres have one of the toughest schedules for the remainder of the season and they weren't projecting them to make the playoffs. I think they're wrong.

On the other hand, if the Sabres make the playoffs with that schedule, it will announce to the league that they will not be a push-over even from the #8 slot.

[pi2000]

So they need about 42 points over their final 33 games to put them at 98 points... which probably gets them in?

That's something like 19-10-4 to finish the season.   That's gonna be tough. 

That said, whatever happens at least we're talking about playoffs in late January which is fun. 

[Marvin]

4 minutes ago, pi2000 said:

So they need about 42 points over their final 33 games to put them at 98 points... which probably gets them in?

That's something like 19-10-4 to finish the season.   That's gonna be tough. 

That said, whatever happens at least we're talking about playoffs in late January which is fun. 

Weird feeling, isn't it?  I had almost forgotten what it felt like.

Edited January 29, 2023 by Marvin

[Thorny]

8 minutes ago, Marvin said:

Weird feeling, isn't it?  I had almost forgotten what it felt like.

“Meaningful games in March” used to be talked about a lot. Looks like we’re gonna get there. 

- - - 

If the Caps come away with 3 points or less their final 2 games before the break, including today’s game, and the Sabres win against Carolina, the Sabres will enter the break in a playoff spot both technically and by way of points %

[Taro T]

12 minutes ago, pi2000 said:

So they need about 42 points over their final 33 games to put them at 98 points... which probably gets them in?

That's something like 19-10-4 to finish the season.   That's gonna be tough. 

That said, whatever happens at least we're talking about playoffs in late January which is fun. 

If they beat Carolina, not an easy task but doable, they will be exactly 2 points behind an NHL 0.600 pace.  Pretty sure, the way they've been playing, that they can find 2 extra points over the final 32 games.  It's not a given, but it is very possible. 

[Huckleberry]

39 minutes ago, pi2000 said:

So they need about 42 points over their final 33 games to put them at 98 points... which probably gets them in?

That's something like 19-10-4 to finish the season.   That's gonna be tough. 

That said, whatever happens at least we're talking about playoffs in late January which is fun. 

Looking at our schedule it really will be tough.    I think we play 25/33 games against playoff teams. 

[PickaPecaPickles]

28 minutes ago, pi2000 said:

So they need about 42 points over their final 33 games to put them at 98 points... which probably gets them in?

That's something like 19-10-4 to finish the season.   That's gonna be tough. 

That said, whatever happens at least we're talking about playoffs in late January which is fun. 

Given the conference is so much more competitive this year, I think the playoff target number will be a lower than 98.  The Caps are currently on pace for 93 points and the Pens for 95.  There are a lot of teams chasing a spot this year compared to last, when the bottom 8 were essentially done with 2 weeks left to play. This year is going to be a real battle, and will most likely come down to the last game or two.  Fortunately, the Sabres end the season with CBJ.

[bob_sauve28]

7 hours ago, Cityo'Rasmii said:

Let's do this ^

And then beat the Bruins in the first round! 
 

 

[Huckleberry]

19 minutes ago, PickaPecaPickles said:

Given the conference is so much more competitive this year, I think the playoff target number will be a lower than 98.  The Caps are currently on pace for 93 points and the Pens for 95.  There are a lot of teams chasing a spot this year compared to last, when the bottom 8 were essentially done with 2 weeks left to play. This year is going to be a real battle, and will most likely come down to the last game or two.  Fortunately, the Sabres end the season with CBJ.

Yeah most likely 94 gets you in.

[Taro T]

29 minutes ago, PickaPecaPickles said:

Given the conference is so much more competitive this year, I think the playoff target number will be a lower than 98.  The Caps are currently on pace for 93 points and the Pens for 95.  There are a lot of teams chasing a spot this year compared to last, when the bottom 8 were essentially done with 2 weeks left to play. This year is going to be a real battle, and will most likely come down to the last game or two.  Fortunately, the Sabres end the season with CBJ.

2 things.

1.  As the playoff races heat up, quite often those teams on the bubble pick up their pace a bit so, though pacing for ~94 appears that it'll be good enough, it very well might not be when all is said & done.

2.  In the modern era, exactly 1 team has gotten to an NHL 0.600 and missed the playoffs.  Shooting for 98 (well 98.4 technically which isn't precisely attainable) should be the goal.   Get to 96 through 80 & then get the 2 or 3 more points they might need in those final 2 games.

Let the Sabres take care of their own business & then they don't have to worry about what their rivals are doing.

[Flashsabre]

The Sabres have the toughest league schedule the rest of the way. Red Wings are second.

They will have to earn it but they will be much better off for the playoffs if they do.

[LGR4GM]

Gotta beat Carolina 1st.

[PickaPecaPickles]

10 minutes ago, Taro T said:

2 things.

1.  As the playoff races heat up, quite often those teams on the bubble pick up their pace a bit so, though pacing for ~94 appears that it'll be good enough, it very well might not be when all is said & done.

2.  In the modern era, exactly 1 team has gotten to an NHL 0.600 and missed the playoffs.  Shooting for 98 (well 98.4 technically which isn't precisely attainable) should be the goal.   Get to 96 through 80 & then get the 2 or 3 more points they might need in those final 2 games.

Let the Sabres take care of their own business & then they don't have to worry about what their rivals are doing.

Yes, regarding that first point, I was thinking about it and wondering who among the pack will pick up the pace? 

At this point, I'd include the Caps, Pens, Sabres, Panthers, Isles, Flyers, Wings, and Sens vying for the last 2 spots.  It really should be a great finish for the last spot.

[DarthEbriate]

4 minutes ago, Flashsabre said:

The Sabres have the toughest league schedule the rest of the way. Red Wings are second.

They will have to earn it but they will be much better off for the playoffs if they do.

BUF and DET both still have two games remaining vs. Boston. I'm guessing 38-7-5 (x2, so 76-14-10) adds a couple tenths of winning percentage to that strength of schedule just on those two games alone. Buffalo already had all 3 (only 3) games against Montreal. There are tough stretches, but nothing horrific remaining (like early in the with @CAR, @TB, ARZ, VGK, BOS all in 7 days).

I'm not worried about the strength of opponents' schedule.

[Doohickie]

2 hours ago, Marvin said:

they will not be a push-over even from the #8 slot.

...let alone the divisional #2  😉

[Doohickie]

1 hour ago, Huckleberry said:

Looking at our schedule it really will be tough.    I think we play 25/33 games against playoff teams. 

This is EXACTLY what they did down the stretch last season, only this time it will mean something.  But the last two months of last season the Sabres were knocking off all comers.

[Turbo44]

Sabres are playing with supreme confidence right now / they can beat anyone. They can also lose to anyone - it’s the nature of the NHL

[Huckleberry]

All good better be the toughest teams, when come play off time we are ready 🙂

[Mustache of God]

That 8 game skid really ***** us.