Advanced Stats Say Goaltending the Issue, Not Defense

[GASabresIUFAN]

 

1 minute ago, Thorny said:

Yup. Doesn’t even need to be about playoffs. We can just strive to be..better. Ridiculous not to. Truly ridiculous imo. We’ve fallen to 26 out of 32. 

Things needs to improve substantially, playoffs or not, or we are in the wrong track for the build just in general 

Think of the roster as a stock portfolio.  KA bought some perceived value stocks like Comrie, Lyubishkin, and Bryson and some penny stocks like Pilut and Fitzgerald and they aren't working.  Time to take the loss and move on.    

[Thorny]

5 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

 

Think of the roster as a stock portfolio.  KA bought some perceived value stocks like Comrie, Lyubishkin, and Bryson and some penny stocks like Pilut and Fitzgerald and they aren't working.  Time to take the loss and move on.    

His moneypuck results aren’t impressive at this stage 

[PerreaultForever]

Screw the advanced stats.  Bad D makes goalies look bad.

Everybody's on about how good Ullmark is this year. Is he that different? or is he just playing confidently knowing he can rely on his defense. He knows his D and his D knows him and they make each other look better. 

I will tell you what the stats don't. When a goalie can't rely on his D he knows he can't leave a rebound, he has to clear the shot. Maybe he can't see through the screen. Maybe he gets run into more or simply worries about getting run in to. Maybe the pressure of rarely playing with a lead gets to him knowing he can't let the next one in. I could go on and on. All these things add up and the goalie loses his edge, his swagger if you will, and then his advanced stats are worse.

Cause that's what Ullmark has now. Watch a game. It's swagger. The one thing he didn't have in Buffalo. 

[Radar]

20 hours ago, JoeSchmoe said:

Looking at Moneypuck, the Sabres goaltending is sitting 24th in the league in 5 on 5 Goals Saved Above Expected.

At the same time, the Sabres are 9th best in High Danger Shots Against (albeit 19th in Medium Danger).

At the end of the day, the D are giving up golden scoring chances, but there are 21 teams that are doing worse. But, there are only 8 teams getting less dependable goaltending than us.

Once again, not getting league average goaltending has been our Achilles heel. I'll also say, nothing deflates a team better than a weak goal against. 

Stats. Yeah, the Bills defense always has good stats. Except when it counts. Sometimes the eye test is also valuable. I think the defense is bad as well as goalkeeper.

[North Buffalo]

Goaltending could be improved sure but D really has a long way to go... Sans Muel blocking shots, clearing the net has been lacking... getting out to the point to cover quickly meh... Put some extra pads on you Nancies and just do it.

[Thwomp!]

I'm shocked!  Scraping the bottom of the barrel for goaltenders and taking whoever is left at the end of the day doesn't work?  It could be worse, we almost didn't get Comrie.  KA offered him less to start here than backup in Winnipeg again.  We were very close to Anderson/UPL again.  Actually now that Comrie is injured, that looks like what we'll get for awhile.

[Quint]

I really like Samuelsson but he seems to be turning into a  bandaid boy. I'm afraid he is chronically injured. We need more depth on D and that doesn't mean we go to Walmart or the Dollar store. The Sabres have money. Spend it on something good.

[Zamboni]

13 minutes ago, Quint said:

I really like Samuelsson but he seems to be turning into a  bandaid boy. I'm afraid he is chronically injured.

Um … no

 

chances of being injured when you are a physical player… Go up considerably. 

Edited November 17, 2022 by Zamboni

[North Buffalo]

Just seems once injury bug sabres way more passive... TT, Tuch, D and seems like guys are afraid of getting hurt

[Curt]

22 hours ago, Marvin said:

The defencive problems are threefold:

1. Inconsistent goaltending.  But far too many times, the shots are from open shooters in high danger areas away from the initial point of attack.  Thus, I can't criticise them too much because of the next 2 reasons, which I feel are more important.

2. Defencive depth is not NHL quality.  Bryson, Pilut, Fitzgerald, and Clague make me yearn for Rory Fitzpatrick, Doug Janik, Nathan Paetsch, and Jeff Jillson.  GMKA should make a hockey trade for improvement here.

3. Defencive zone coverage by the forwards.  The lack of awareness in the defencive zone from most of the forwards is what makes me think that HCDG does not emphasise this in practise.  This is his greatest flaw as a coach.

Defensive

[Marvin]

29 minutes ago, Curt said:

Defensive

In case you were wondering why I use British spelling...

Both my parents grew up under British rule.  I discovered Hockey Night in Canada at age 5.  I watch both Canadian and US national news.  My favourite TV shows are Doctor Who (particularly the original), Monty Python's Flying Circus, The Goodies, Yes (Prime) Minister, and, for the sole American show in my top 5, Barney Miller.

For me, it is "defencive" and I have my tech set for British spelling.

3 hours ago, North Buffalo said:

Just seems once injury bug sabres way more passive... TT, Tuch, D and seems like guys are afraid of getting hurt

Nice catch.  I hadn't noticed, but you are right.

[bunomatic]

7 hours ago, Marvin said:

In case you were wondering why I use British spelling...

Both my parents grew up under British rule.  I discovered Hockey Night in Canada at age 5.  I watch both Canadian and US national news.  My favourite TV shows are Doctor Who (particularly the original), Monty Python's Flying Circus, The Goodies, Yes (Prime) Minister, and, for the sole American show in my top 5, Barney Miller.

For me, it is "defencive" and I have my tech set for British spelling.

Nice catch.  I hadn't noticed, but you are right.

The goodies brings back memories. I remember racing home after school to watch that. 

[Quint]

I was watching Cal Petersen the other day...he looks good. Portillo and Levi can't get here fast enough but I'm afraid they are slow-walking their arrival. I'm thinking they might also bail. The Sabres are like Casper the Friendly Ghost for young goaltenders. They just turn and run the other way.

[Sidc3000]

1 hour ago, Quint said:

I was watching Cal Petersen the other day...he looks good. Portillo and Levi can't get here fast enough but I'm afraid they are slow-walking their arrival. I'm thinking they might also bail. The Sabres are like Casper the Friendly Ghost for young goaltenders. They just turn and run the other way.

Even if Levi/Portillo sign, they’re not coming to the big club for a few years. Honestly I would be surprised if either signs with the Sabres at this point. 

[Refuting]

This is an obvious example of why advanced stats can't always be relied upon. Anyone who watches the game can tell that defense is the problem. Granted, goaltending could be better but it's not the main issue. I like the UPL callup. He should be hungry and maybe even a bit ticked off that they brought in Comrie 

Playing fast and loose and "not afraid to make mistakes" is exciting but not if all you do is make mistakes. I hope Granato is leaning into defensive awareness heavily over the past couple days. Practices should be tougher than they've ever dealt with, that starts with coaching. Practice makes perfect. Practice defense until no one scores a goal on you until no odd man rushes happen. 

Now go kick the shyt out of the leafs and start up a WINNING streak 

[Ross Rhea]

When I see game after game as many uncontested slot shots or uncontested below the dot shots as the Sabres are giving up, these advance stats are bunk and the D is the problem not the goaltenders. That said the goalies could be better but the D needs to be leaps and bounds better. Need some guys with grit, not necessarily fighters just guys that are difficult to play against. 

[mjd1001]

On 11/16/2022 at 4:15 PM, GASabresIUFAN said:

 

Think of the roster as a stock portfolio.  KA bought some perceived value stocks like Comrie, Lyubishkin, and Bryson and some penny stocks like Pilut and Fitzgerald and they aren't working.  Time to take the loss and move on.    

Pilut and Fitzgerald as 'penny stocks' are working fine for what they should be.  As a #7 or #8 D-man that is pressed into occasional duty they are fine. I don't want them part of the regular rotation but they arent the reason this team is losing.  Bad D-zone plays and giveways by the young forwards (which should be somewhat expected) are more of a problem in the D-zone than the play of bottom pair that has been forced into playing time due to injuries.  Lyubuskin I'm still happy with (I'm confident he is playing not fully healed and when he WAS not injured he was playing very well).

The D is not the main problem. The goaltending is not the main problem. They aren't great, but until I see a change, the biggest area of improvement is the positioning, giveaways, and lack of board work the young forwards have in the D-zone.  All 3 areas can be improved, I'll admit to that, but the forwards being better/playing better in the D-zone will yield the most results.

Edited November 18, 2022 by mjd1001

[Thwomp!]

I'll put this here since the other post was deleted. This article is a thorough dive into the Sabres' issues:

Buffalo News: Sliding Sabres suffering from inexperience, injuries, 5-on-5 struggles.
https://buffalonews.com/sports/sabres/sliding-sabres-suffering-from-inexperience-injuries-5-on-5-struggles/article_04b7b0dc-667f-11ed-bbbe-5f32ff6948e5.html

[grinreaper]

On 11/17/2022 at 10:20 AM, Quint said:

I really like Samuelsson but he seems to be turning into a  bandaid boy. I'm afraid he is chronically injured. We need more depth on D and that doesn't mean we go to Walmart or the Dollar store. The Sabres have money. Spend it on something good.

I don't remember Samuelsson being injured prior to this latest injury. He's the type of defenseman we sorely needed/need. Borgen was somewhat similar and losing him was a shame. 

[Quint]

36 minutes ago, grinreaper said:

I don't remember Samuelsson being injured prior to this latest injury. He's the type of defenseman we sorely needed/need. Borgen was somewhat similar and losing him was a shame. 

Funny, Samuelsson was put on IR and missed nine games with an LBI last season at about the exact same time. He also missed time at the end of last season with an LBI (foot injury blocking a shot)  and was unable to play for the Amerks in the playoffs.

[PromoTheRobot]

So all those turnovers are a good thing?

[triumph_communes]

The amount of breakaways and uncontested slot shots the Sabres give up is unreal. That’s a system issue at this point. The forwards get lost on defense. 

[Marvin]

On 11/18/2022 at 8:46 AM, Quint said:

I was watching Cal Petersen the other day...he looks good. Portillo and Levi can't get here fast enough but I'm afraid they are slow-walking their arrival. I'm thinking they might also bail. The Sabres are like Casper the Friendly Ghost for young goaltenders. They just turn and run the other way.

Welcome to the board.

I wonder why Petersen stayed away and Portillo is likely to stay away.

[Curt]

On 11/17/2022 at 2:43 PM, Marvin said:

In case you were wondering why I use British spelling...

Both my parents grew up under British rule.  I discovered Hockey Night in Canada at age 5.  I watch both Canadian and US national news.  My favourite TV shows are Doctor Who (particularly the original), Monty Python's Flying Circus, The Goodies, Yes (Prime) Minister, and, for the sole American show in my top 5, Barney Miller.

For me, it is "defencive" and I have my tech set for British spelling.

Interesting.  I forgot about the difference in British spelling and it just looked so wrong.  I’m seeing some things grammar sites that it should always be an “s” when used with a suffix beginning in “i”, but I also see people using the word defencive……. so, shrug.

 

 

[That Aud Smell]

this is something