Are we there yet? Are the Sabres Legit?

[Believer]

2 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

The schedule also gets harder from here with 4 more contenders in the next 5 games including the red hot Eichel lead Knights and Bruins at home and roadies at TB and Carolina.  

Dare I ask; Are we there yet?

Good post… We’ll soon find out…

[JustOneParade]

It appears many are discounting the first 10 games because of events of the past. And that's understandable given collapses - one in spectacular fashion - after recent hot starts. But this is obviously a very different team than those previous ones. And any of the players on this team who also were part of those past teams are at different points of their careers/development and under vastly different circumstances.

There was a poll about six weeks ago (can't recall who did it) where we voted on ranges of season-end point total projections for the Sabres.  It would be interesting to see how these 10 games would change our responses if the poll was re-done now. This would defuse some of the 'how'd this work out the last three times' and also not have to answer the question 'where is there?'. 

[Doohickie]

1 hour ago, Taro T said:

The Comrie Anderson stats are kind of an updated version of Edwards Sauve.  Sauve's stats were better on the surface, but he got the Detroits & Rockies/ Devils while Edwards got Moe-ray-all & the B's.

Sauve wasn't better than Donnie.  Anderson hasn't been better than Comrie.  Anderson wouldn't have given them as many w's in the other games had the usage been adjusted.  MHO.  YMMV.

Totally agree.  If Anderson played more I don't think he'd be as good either.  He needs some recovery between starts.

[Doohickie]

6 minutes ago, JustOneParade said:

It appears many are discounting the first 10 games because of events of the past. And that's understandable given collapses - one in spectacular fashion - after recent hot starts. But this is obviously a very different team than those previous ones. And any of the players on this team who also were part of those past teams are at different points of their careers/development and under vastly different circumstances.

In my view, the current record really is just a continuation of how they finished last season.  The thought at the time was that it was a shame the season was ending since they were playing so well and we worried they wouldn't be able to pick up where they left off.  There was a little adjustment the first few games, and and again when the D injuries hit, but both were blips and the rest of the games look at least as good, if not better, than they were playing last year.

[GASabresIUFAN]

10 hours ago, Curt said:

Are we where yet?  Where is there?

Are the Sabres better than the team that started last season?  Without a doubt.

Are the Sabres good enough to make the playoffs?  Maybe.

Are the Sabres good enough to contend for a Stanley Cup?  Almost definitely not, and because of that I think the overall answer to your question has to be no.

They are not “there”.  They have not arrived at a destination.  They are still in the early stages of a long journey that they are traveling together.

It's a fair question as to what I mean by "there."  I made it open ended because "there" means something different for different people.  For some it would simply be nightly entertaining hockey with a legit chance to win the game.  I think we reached this definition in the 2nd half of last season

There to me means are we are legit playoff contender.  I think we are "there" or nearly.  When I combine late last season and the first 9 of this season, it's pretty clear to me we can regularly beat teams considered to be playoff teams and should be in the fight for a playoff spot this season. For us to sustain this level we need to get and remain healthy on the backend.

If your definition of "there" is a guaranteed playoff team or even a Cup contender, IMHO, we still have much work to do.  D depth and elite goaltending are still the areas we need the most help, but at least Comrie and Anderson are keeping us in every game.   

Edited November 4, 2022 by GASabresIUFAN

[Thorny]

“There” is a playoff team. 

They look like a playoff team. So, if we make it, we’re “there”. Not “there” until it happens though.

But do I think they make it? Yes. 

Leaving aside the specifics of “there”, do I think we are a good team? I define that as a team that’s going to win more games than they lose. 17 teams did that last year. 

Yes. The Sabres are a good team now. I’ve seen enough imo to make that call, re: my own estimation 

[Sabres Fan in NS]

They play hard and never give up.  That's a big deal.

Also, the goaltending seems a lot more legit than in recent past.  If that stands up the Sabres will be fine.

They will contend for a playoff spot all season and in the end I think they make it.

[matter2003]

In addition to being the youngest team in the NHL in terms of age, the Sabres are also the least experienced team in the NHL in terms of games played by 745 games less than Arizona and the only team with under 6,000 games played logged by their players:

 

No surprise Washington and Boston are the two most experienced teams, with more than double the number of games the Sabres have played.

Makes what the Sabres are doing even more impressive, IMO.

Edited November 3, 2022 by matter2003

[PerreaultForever]

"legit" is kind of a funny word and I'm not sure it applies.

Clearly, the team can skate. Clearly they can generate offense and score goals. Clearly they are more of a team than they used to be and have many up and coming players who in all likelihood will get even better. 

But the question is really are they as good as the elite other teams in the league? Not sure. When we beat them then they will be "legit" for sure but that still remains to be seen. I'm still not convinced we can handle real physical play or tough checking. Maybe. 

Also not sure if the goaltending will hold up for a whole season. It has to, but idk if it will. 

They are definitely better than last year, but I think it's still fragile. 

[mjd1001]

4 hours ago, JustOneParade said:

There was a poll about six weeks ago (can't recall who did it) where we voted on ranges of season-end point total projections for the Sabres.  It would be interesting to see how these 10 games would change our responses if the poll was re-done now. This would defuse some of the 'how'd this work out the last three times' and also not have to answer the question 'where is there?'. 

91 points. That is where I am now.  

[Porous Five Hole]

[Scottysabres]

Are we there yet?

Where?

There.

Where is there?

There is here.

Where is here?

There is where here is, therefor, we are there.

[Norcal]

There are two Sabres in the top ten in points ...Dahlin and TNT with 14 are 9/10.

There are two Sabres in the top ten in goals VO (8) is tied for third and Thompson (7) for fourth. 

I can't remember the last time that was true even this early in the season. 

 

[Huckleberry]

I need another month to start believing, lets see next couple of games.

[sabresparaavida]

5 minutes ago, Norcal said:

There are two Sabres in the top ten in points ...Dahlin and TNT with 14 are 9/10.

There are two Sabres in the top ten in goals VO (8) is tied for third and Thompson (7) for fourth. 

I can't remember the last time that was true even this early in the season. 

 

Tuch (7) is also tied with Thompson in goals.

[Norcal]

Need more games to really say but the boys have impressed me so far with their good start. 

I'd say twenty games in we should know if they can sustain it.

It's a long season full of ebbs and flows, I'm curious to see how they handle it all.

If they do get close to the playoffs they'll definitely feel the weight of the city on their backs.

4 minutes ago, sabresparaavida said:

Tuch (7) is also tied with Thompson in goals.

Yeah, my bad

[GASabresIUFAN]

2 minutes ago, Norcal said:

Need more games to really say but the boys have impressed me so far with their good start. 

I'd say twenty games in we should know if they can sustain it.

It's a long season full of ebbs and flows, I'm curious to see how they handle it all.

If they do get close to the playoffs they'll definitely feel the weight of the city on their backs.

Yeah, my bad

They play TB, Car, LV, Bos and AZ in the next 5.  If they win 3 of 5 wouldn't you agree that they have proven they can compete with the best and are therefore a good team?

[Norcal]

2 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

They play TB, Car, LV, Bos and AZ in the next 5.  If they win 3 of 5 wouldn't you agree that they have proven they can compete with the best and are therefore a good team?

It's a good test for sure it will show alot about how ready they are to go against good teams every night and win. 

The 20 games I mentioned are still only a quarter of the season. 

Alot can happen in three quarters of a season. 

I love what I'm seeing though. 

[matter2003]

9 hours ago, Norcal said:

Need more games to really say but the boys have impressed me so far with their good start. 

I'd say twenty games in we should know if they can sustain it.

It's a long season full of ebbs and flows, I'm curious to see how they handle it all.

If they do get close to the playoffs they'll definitely feel the weight of the city on their backs.

Yeah, my bad

It's been 38 games now.

[Sabel79]

16 hours ago, Sabres Fan in NS said:

the Sabres will be fine!!!!!!!!!!

 

FTFY

[PromoTheRobot]

 

2 hours ago, matter2003 said:

It's been 38 games now.

What's the difference between March and April to now? They picked up where they left off.

[sabresparaavida]

The athletics newest Power rankings had them 12th in the league, which was 7th in the conference (Tor was 14th and 8th in the conference)

[JustOneParade]

12 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

They play TB, Car, LV, Bos and AZ in the next 5.  If they win 3 of 5 wouldn't you agree that they have proven they can compete with the best and are therefore a good team?

For me, yes. I only wish they could have gone through this upcoming portion of their schedule with at least 2 of the 3 injured D healthy and back in the lineup. Three out against those first four teams is going to be tough to overcome  ... and it makes for a difficult evaluation.

[LTS]

This team has proven it can compete.  This team has proven that even when losing they are not going to collapse unlike years past. For example, Pittsburgh in years past I would have seen as going against the Sabres 5 or 6  to 1 because they would have given up.

This team excites me and has potential.

The reason I am not overboard about them yet is that they've not survived the length of a season yet.  30 games last year is a good indicator, but young players usually need to adapt to the grind of the NHL.  The Sabres, while facing SOME injuries, have not faced injuries to some top players. We know the team is not deep, even at forward. They have a potentially deep lineup at forward but look at the conversations on Mitts, Quinn, Krebs.  That's 3 starters who get elevated should Tuch, Thompson, Skinner, Cozens, etc. get injured.  If they aren't performing now, they're unlikely to perform in an elevated role.

So, when the lineup goes deep in scoring and they've continued through the grind of the season and keep their pace (or even close to it) then I am all in.

But, I'd say they are legit. I am certainly going to enjoy the ride, because they are entertaining and their style of play and passion draw me in to the game unlike teams in the past 10 years.

[RochesterExpat]

1 hour ago, sabresparaavida said:

The athletics newest Power rankings had them 12th in the league, which was 7th in the conference (Tor was 14th and 8th in the conference)

And MoneyPuck has them at 23rd. In fact, I think of all the analytics based rankings, the highest I've seen Buffalo is 19th. Meanwhile, the Hockey Guy last had them at 9th last week.

Regardless...

This team could be sitting at 109 points on April 13th and the pundits will still be asking if this team is real and someone on this board will be complaining about our goaltending or defensive depth not being enough to compete and KA should have traded away every Amerk for some aging star with a garbage contract.

This team could be playing in game 4 of the Stanley Cup with a 3-0 series lead and someone on this board will post in the GDT how the wheels are falling off and the team is being exposed because last game the Sabres gave up an ugly goal in their 8 to 1 victory.

In the thread about the cup parade in downtown Buffalo, someone is going to ask "Yeah, sure, they won the cup but it's like a 100 game sample size. How will we know this team is really legit?"

By the way, if you think the above is a joke and not completely plausible, I've got news for you: you're that guy (or girl).

The team is good and they have the potential to be great (emphasis on potential). They're going to be streaky because age and inexperience. That's to be expected. On the whole, however, the team is good. Are they going to make the playoffs? Who knows? Injuries could stall the season and there will be streaks where the team doesn't play well. Other teams are going to start gelling (Toronto or Tampa, for example) and Buffalo will need to find another gear. But, again, the team on the whole is good compared to years past. This is supported by the eye test and analytics. This isn't a team winning ten games in a row with 6 of those being OT/shootout wins.

You will be alright. Everything is alright. It wasn't your fault. Krueger, Housley, Blysma, Nolan, Rolston, Botterill and Murray are gone. They can't hurt you anymore. It is okay to come into the light. It is okay to feel the warmth of the sun again. It is okay to be happy.